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Matt Mueller

The Case for Matt Forte: Safe RB1 + Upside

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To me, Matt Forte seems to be one of those players, that draftees 'settle for.' He doesn't have the allure of the other big names, the sexiness of the rookies and owners often seem to over look him, imo, looking for the next big thing.

 

I think most owners acknowledge Forte's ability to avoid injuries- 3.75 seasons with no games missed-and his high character, work ethic has never been in question, but they often question his upside.

 

With Bush in town the current thinking is that he is a lock to take valuable carries away from Forte and will handle most of the goal line work. I expect that to be the case.

 

 

Part of the reason I'm making this thread is that I don't think I quite ever realized how explosive Forte can be. When I was looking over the rushing stats from last year McCoy was #1 in the league with 14 rushes over 20 yards. Forte was 2nd, while missing 5 games, with 12. That caught my eye because he was playing on a Bears team with one of the leagues worst offensive lines and quite frankly very little if any surrounding talent. He was the sole focus of teams defensive attention last year.

 

To me this begs the question, what can an explosive player do in a system that is likely better suited to provide good running lanes(Tice over Martz) and with the additions of Marshall, A. Jeffreys and even Bush?

 

I expect the Bears offense to be a lot better next year and I'm beginning to wonder if Forte might have more upside than we give him credit for.

 

After all this is a player who finished #1 overall his rookie season and amassed nearly 1,500 total yards in 11 games last year, finishing #9 in PPG-standard-even with only 4 tds.

 

If you didn't get a chance to see Forte in action much last year here is a great highlight clip of his 2011 season. To my eyes he looks great.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eagIYzeHmSw

 

One last video I'll toss out is an ESPN roundtable discussion where they mention that Forte ranked 2nd in the league in 'good blocking yards per attempt' which a metric that measures what running backs did when they achieved good blocking. He did this with one of-if not the-worst run blocking lines in football.

 

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8073403

 

The bears were 23rd in total offense last year. I expect that number to go up and with the Bears possibly on the verge of becoming one of the better offenses in the league I think Forte may provide both safeness and more upside than we give him credit for next year.

 

P.S. I drafted him in my Zealots league so I am WELL AWARE of the massive Jinx I just put on him...but even so he's gonna be a target in my auction and redraft leagues so I wanted to share this regardless.

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Here's a snippet for a Chicago Tribune article talking on Forte getting familiar and up to speed with the offense:

 

 

'Forte, who made his first Pro Bowl last season, seems thrilled with the new scheme, though his career took off in two seasons under former offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

 

"We have some really good stuff," Forte said. "It's coming to me really good."

 

A word that many use when talking about the new offense is "explosive," and that starts with Forte. He was second in the NFL with 12 carries of 20 or more yards last season, and offensive coordinator Mike Tice defines an "explosive" run as any rush of 12 or more yards. Forte had 25 of those — more than two per game, as he missed the final month. That helped him to a career-best 4.9-yard average per run.

 

Tice considers an "explosive" pass a completion of 16 yards or more. Forte had 10, making him one of the top all-purpose backs in the league.

 

Forte will remain a significant part of the passing attack, although he's unlikely to lead the team in receptions as he did the last two seasons. That doesn't mean he's going to be any less involved.

 

"The first thing we're going to do is try to protect the quarterback instead of looking for hot routes," Forte said. "So we're going to seal it up front so Jay can find the open guy. There are free release routes and things like that, and then there are times I am going to be in there blocking."

 

In a more balanced offense with the addition of wide receiver Brandon Marshall, the Bears are counting on the running game being more open. Opponents should not be able to dare Cutler to beat them and gang up on the running game. That should mean more opportunities for big plays the back had with regularity last season.

 

"Matt is going to have plenty of opportunities to be explosive in our offense," Tice said. "Not only running the ball but catching it."

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I'll argue with you a bit :)

 

Forte is a yardage machine, but his struggles to score are well known. He is very similar to Sjax in terms of how he scores his fantasy points. 2008 he managed 12 total TD's but he hasn't hit 10 total since. Michael Bush is too good to sit on the sideline and has the ideal body for taking goal line carries. Those lost opportunities lower his ceiling.

 

His knees are an issue to me. He did not have surgery during the off-season, but his injury was severe enough to keep him out of the last 5 games. Maybe it was a negotiating ploy. I question if that problem has really healed or if it's just waiting to get exasperated again in full contact. This is his first injury to his right knee. It is a rare feat for a running back to climb his way back up the fantasy mountain.

 

The last piece is his changing situation. One could argue that he's been the best receiver on the Bears for the last several seasons. That is no longer true with Marshall in town. We could nit-pick over if Forte will lose targets to Marshall, but the general take-away is that his receiving skill set isn't as needed as it was previously.

 

All that being said, I still like Forte, I just don't expect top 5 rb results from him.

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I'll argue with you a bit :)

 

Forte is a yardage machine, but his struggles to score are well known. He is very similar to Sjax in terms of how he scores his fantasy points. 2008 he managed 12 total TD's but he hasn't hit 10 total since. Michael Bush is too good to sit on the sideline and has the ideal body for taking goal line carries. Those lost opportunities lower his ceiling.

The addition of M Bush doesn't really impact Forte's FF production much. You suggest that Forte's "lost opportunities lower his ceiling." I ask, what lost opportunities? Forte didn't score a single rushing TD from inside the 5 last year, and he only had 1 in 2010. There are virtually no "lost opportunities." If he didn't score from the goal-line before Bush got there, him not scoring from the goal-line now that Bush is in Chi won't negatively impact his FF #s. He's been a RB1 (ppg basis) the past two seasons without those goal-line scores.

 

His knees are an issue to me. He did not have surgery during the off-season, but his injury was severe enough to keep him out of the last 5 games. Maybe it was a negotiating ploy. I question if that problem has really healed or if it's just waiting to get exasperated again in full contact. This is his first injury to his right knee. It is a rare feat for a running back to climb his way back up the fantasy mountain.

His knee isn't an issue. An MCL sprain is usually a 2 to 6 week injury. After 3 weeks (and 3 losses), the Bears were out of the playoff hunt, so there was no need for him to play in the last few games, and they IR'd him (Cutler too). He did play in the Pro-Bowl game, and as you noted, didn't need surgery. It is not a rare feat, AT ALL, for a RB to sustain a minor knee injury like an MCL sprain and "climb his way back up the fantasy mountain."

 

The last piece is his changing situation. One could argue that he's been the best receiver on the Bears for the last several seasons. That is no longer true with Marshall in town. We could nit-pick over if Forte will lose targets to Marshall, but the general take-away is that his receiving skill set isn't as needed as it was previously.

Forte is still arguably the best offensive player the Bears have (at worst, second, if you give Marshall the nod). He will still get his numbers in the passing game. But, to your point about the changing situation:

in 2008, Cutler completed 104 passes to Marshall, and still completed 91 to Eddie Royal (plus 43 to his RBs). I'd say Forte will still get his catches from Cutler, even if Marshall does command the lion's share of targets. Furthermore, Mike Tice was HC in Minny for 4.5 years, and during his tenure (with the exception of 2005), they had Randy Moss commanding the lion's share of the targets, but the RBs in Minny averaged 77 receptions per year during Tice's HC gig. With Tice as OC, I don't see them suddenly deciding that Forte shouldn't be involved in the passing game anymore.

 

All that being said, I still like Forte, I just don't expect top 5 rb results from him.

Barring injury, in non-PPR leagues, Forte is a lock (IMO) for top-10 rb results, and while I don't expect top-5 numbers, it's not impossible. Foster, Rice, and McCoy will probably be in the top-5. After that, you have Mathews, who looks like he might miss the 1st 2-3 games of the season, then you have MJD (holding out-how will he fare in the early part of the season?), Chris Johnson (will he bounce back this year?), DMC (can he stay healthy for enough games to be top-5?) Lynch (suspension?), Charles (return from injury?), ADP (return from injury?), etc.

 

There's not a solid, undisputed #4 & #5 RB this year. Forte could sneak in, if he manages to break a few long TDs.

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I really like forte this year and think people are placin him way too low. Out of Marty ridiculous gameplan and still a rec threat he will be a first rounder next year. I understand bush is there but he still does enough without gl touches.

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The addition of M Bush doesn't really impact Forte's FF production much. You suggest that Forte's "lost opportunities lower his ceiling." I ask, what lost opportunities? Forte didn't score a single rushing TD from inside the 5 last year, and he only had 1 in 2010. There are virtually no "lost opportunities." If he didn't score from the goal-line before Bush got there, him not scoring from the goal-line now that Bush is in Chi won't negatively impact his FF #s. He's been a RB1 (ppg basis) the past two seasons without those goal-line scores.

I say 2+2=4. You say 2x2=4. Point is the goal line opportunities aren't there and he needs those opportunities to be a top tier back.

 

His knee isn't an issue. An MCL sprain is usually a 2 to 6 week injury. After 3 weeks (and 3 losses), the Bears were out of the playoff hunt, so there was no need for him to play in the last few games, and they IR'd him (Cutler too). He did play in the Pro-Bowl game, and as you noted, didn't need surgery. It is not a rare feat, AT ALL, for a RB to sustain a minor knee injury like an MCL sprain and "climb his way back up the fantasy mountain."

I wasn't necessarily referring to the injury but rather the king of the hill progression that RBs go through in fantasy. The trend is very noticeable and I brushed the surface in the Chris Johnson thread. Once they drop from a tier, they rarely move back up. Some guys like LT2 or Alexander can hold on to that top spot for a couple seasons but its the same story after that.

You could say Forte hasn't peaked yet since his best year was his rookie year, but I say his best year was in 2008 which was going on 5 seasons ago.

 

Forte is still arguably the best offensive player the Bears have (at worst, second, if you give Marshall the nod). He will still get his numbers in the passing game. But, to your point about the changing situation:

in 2008, Cutler completed 104 passes to Marshall, and still completed 91 to Eddie Royal (plus 43 to his RBs). I'd say Forte will still get his catches from Cutler, even if Marshall does command the lion's share of targets. Furthermore, Mike Tice was HC in Minny for 4.5 years, and during his tenure (with the exception of 2005), they had Randy Moss commanding the lion's share of the targets, but the RBs in Minny averaged 77 receptions per year during Tice's HC gig. With Tice as OC, I don't see them suddenly deciding that Forte shouldn't be involved in the passing game anymore.

Cutler attempted 616 passes in 2008 and 314 in 2011. Very different situations.

 

Barring injury, in non-PPR leagues, Forte is a lock (IMO) for top-10 rb results, and while I don't expect top-5 numbers, it's not impossible. Foster, Rice, and McCoy will probably be in the top-5. After that, you have Mathews, who looks like he might miss the 1st 2-3 games of the season, then you have MJD (holding out-how will he fare in the early part of the season?), Chris Johnson (will he bounce back this year?), DMC (can he stay healthy for enough games to be top-5?) Lynch (suspension?), Charles (return from injury?), ADP (return from injury?), etc.

 

There's not a solid, undisputed #4 & #5 RB this year. Forte could sneak in, if he manages to break a few long TDs.

I agree with both points in your second paragraph. The second tier of backs is muddled this year, it's ugly after the third tier, and anything can happen in fantasy. But Forte still doesn't have the upside of a DMC who could be the #1 RB if he makes it through 16 games which is what I want if drafting on the back end of round 1. If Forte makes it through 16 games he might crack the top 5 rb. That is a big difference to me.

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I've been pretty bleh on Forte for the last few years but I'm honestly starting to come around. You're right, he doesn't have the flashy upside like a healthy DMC. But if you go for a top tier RB (or even a QB) with your first pick, and he's looking like a better choice than the receivers or TE options you'll be looking at in the second round. The fact that he's been so solid despite not getting many TDs makes me even more comfortable that he'll continue to perform. He's proven that he's not relying on TDs to be a consistent fantasy scorer. With Marshall in town you can easily see more attention given to the receiving game, which means more room to run wild for Forte.

 

So I've been giving him some serious attention. I'm not entirely sold, but right now he's looking like a rather solid pick in the early second round. I wouldn't count on tons of upside, but solid production to pair with a top notch QB or if he falls and you can pair him with Foster, Rice, or McCoy I wouldn't think twice (especially if the top 5 QBs are gone already when you get your second pick). I feel like WR and TE is deep and good RBs are hard to come by this year. I'm not so worried about Bush--just be damn sure to get him as a handcuff.

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Forte is a great RB to have because Chicago runs their offense through him. Those are the guys you want. They're guaranteed to get tons of touches and put up a lot of yards.

 

The problem with Forte is he doesn't get many touchdowns. I don't see that changing this year.

 

So that's what you're left with. A guy that probably won't disappoint you too much as a late first round/early second round pick, but also a guy that won't vault into being a top five overall point scorer.

 

:dunno:

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I say 2+2=4. You say 2x2=4. Point is the goal line opportunities aren't there and he needs those opportunities to be a top tier back.

He hasn't needed them the past 3 years to be a top RB, why does he all of a sudden start needing them?

 

I wasn't necessarily referring to the injury but rather the king of the hill progression that RBs go through in fantasy. The trend is very noticeable and I brushed the surface in the Chris Johnson thread. Once they drop from a tier, they rarely move back up. Some guys like LT2 or Alexander can hold on to that top spot for a couple seasons but its the same story after that.

OK, my bad. You started out talking about his knee injury, and then went directly into the statement about not being able to re-climb the FF hill, so the natural assumption was that you were referring to the knee. That being said, Forte was the RB12 in 2009, RB9 in 2010, and RB7 (ppg basis) in 2011. He seems to be climbing that hill, not falling off of it.

 

Cutler attempted 616 passes in 2008 and 314 in 2011. Very different situations.

Yes, and he completed 100+ to Marshall, 90+ to Royal (2nd best receiver), and still completed 43 to his RBs. Even if he "only" attempts 550 or so passes, Forte should still be on the receiving end of 50 (or more) of those.

 

I agree with both points in your second paragraph. The second tier of backs is muddled this year, it's ugly after the third tier, and anything can happen in fantasy. But Forte still doesn't have the upside of a DMC who could be the #1 RB if he makes it through 16 games which is what I want if drafting on the back end of round 1. If Forte makes it through 16 games he might crack the top 5 rb. That is a big difference to me.

Forte finished ahead of DMC last year, on a ppg basis (PPR scoring), and DMC was on pace for 1700+ total YFS and 11 TDs. Why do you think DMC's "ceiling" is so much higher, especially when you consider that DMC has NEVER made it through an entire NFL season, while Forte has been pretty reliable?

 

Again, I'm not predicting Forte as a top-5 RB, but he's pretty much a lock for top-10, and with the questions after the top-3, he could sneak into the top-5, and he is a much safer pick (especially early in the draft) than DMC.

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I'm picking 8 overall. If the Top 3 RBs and QBs are off the bored along with Calvin I just might take Forte. I don't see a safer RB or any better value at QB or WR at that point.

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I'm picking 8 overall. If the Top 3 RBs and QBs are off the bored along with Calvin I just might take Forte. I don't see a safer RB or any better value at QB or WR at that point.

 

Yeah, it's an interesting spot to be in when the top 3 RBs, a couple of elite QBs, and Megatron are off the board.

 

Personally I think the choices are McFadden, Julio Jones, and Forte. Maybe DeMarco Murray enters the discussion as well. Anyway you're kind of holding your nose and drafting no matter what.

 

McFadden could finish #1 or he could finish outside the top 30 (as he has done in three of his four years in the league).

 

Julio Jones looks awesome and should be poised for a breakout year, but do you really want to go all-in on the hype? Plus WR is deep and it's not necessarily guaranteed that Julio will be head and shoulders above the rest like Megatron.

 

DeMarco Murray is basically the same as McFadden. There's some real homerun potential there but he could also completely ruin your season.

 

Forte doesn't score any touchdowns. But when you compare that to the other options, I think maybe he's your best bet anyway. Usually you want a guy with a higher ceiling for your first pick, but Forte also doesn't have nearly as low of a floor as Murray and McFadden. And he's proven that he can produce at a very high level, unlike Julio thus far.

 

I guess you could potentially look at a QB like Stafford or Cam Newton, but then you've just overpaid for a tier two guy.

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Worms:

 

I think Julio might be there in the 2nd anyway and I'm not as bullish on Cam or Stafford as a lot of people. I'd really like Brees at 8 but if he's not there I have Forte up around CJ on my list of backs. My goal in round 1 is to get a guaranteed solid producer and after the Top 7 are off the board I don't see anyone with a higher floor.

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Worms:

 

I think Julio might be there in the 2nd anyway and I'm not as bullish on Cam or Stafford as a lot of people. I'd really like Brees at 8 but if he's not there I have Forte up around CJ on my list of backs. My goal in round 1 is to get a guaranteed solid producer and after the Top 7 are off the board I don't see anyone with a higher floor.

 

Agreed that Julio in the first would be overdrafting him. I just threw him in there for the sake of argument.

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Forte is a great RB to have because Chicago runs their offense through him. Those are the guys you want. They're guaranteed to get tons of touches and put up a lot of yards.

 

The problem with Forte is he doesn't get many touchdowns. I don't see that changing this year.

 

So that's what you're left with. A guy that probably won't disappoint you too much as a late first round/early second round pick, but also a guy that won't vault into being a top five overall point scorer.

 

:dunno:

 

Marion Barber killed him with TD-stealing last year. This year, Mike Bush will not only steal TDs but will also eat into more carries than Barber ever did. I realize that these days scoring systems have become like pin ball machines and players get points for taking a forward step. I guess in that case Forte will be OK. But, if you are in a league where TDs still count for something, Forte will be a HUGE disappointment and drive you focking crazy. Period.

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Marion Barber killed him with TD-stealing last year. This year, Mike Bush will not only steal TDs but will also eat into more carries than Barber ever did. I realize that these days scoring systems have become like pin ball machines and players get points for taking a forward step. I guess in that cse Forte will be OK. But, if you are in a league where TDs still count for something, Forte will be a HUGE disappointment and drive you focking crazy. Period.

 

Obviously the analysis is different if you're in a TD-heavy league. :doh:

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TD's were never Forte's forte. Bush vulturing isn't an issue. The injury wasn't too bad, he played in the Pro Bowl even. I think he's providing excellent value in the 2nd and possibly late 1st round.

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Marion Barber killed him with TD-stealing last year. This year, Mike Bush will not only steal TDs but will also eat into more carries than Barber ever did. I realize that these days scoring systems have become like pin ball machines and players get points for taking a forward step. I guess in that case Forte will be OK. But, if you are in a league where TDs still count for something, Forte will be a HUGE disappointment and drive you focking crazy. Period.

Barber killed him? :rolleyes: Forte was RB7 (on a ppg basis) in 2011, while he was RB9 in 2010 (this is using standard, non-PPR scoring). So, Forte improved in 2011, despite getting "killed" by Barber getting the goal-line carries; OKAY :unsure:

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I look at Forte as a possible Thomas Jones. Everyone focuses on his touchdowns, or lack thereof, and doesn't realize that even without the touchdowns he is a very good starting fantasy running back.

 

So to provide devils advocate to those that say Forte doesn't have the upside as some of the other players I ask this question.

 

What if Forte DOES start scoring touchdowns? He already was a top 10 ppg running back with just 4 touchdowns total last season. If he just scores a total of 10, which is VERY realistic...he scores more than Darren Sproles last season in PPR leagues. Oh...and he missed FOUR games!

I was gun shy early on...and I think the fear of the contract situation was primarily behind that...but I am definitely thinking he is a top 10 rb at worst this season.

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I like the subject heading because that's exactly how I view Forte at this point - the unsexy but "safe" first round pick, with some upside in an improved CHI offense. The addition of Bush doesn't even worry me as, and already aforestated throughout this thread, Forte's touchdowns come from farther out. I'm glad I've perused this thread because I've always been bullish on Forte just because he seems like such a "blah" pick and the CHI offense has been so pedestrian the past few years.

 

The more I think of it, the more I like the security and proven production of a guy like Forte over the uncertainty surrounding CJ2K, Mathews, MJD etc. You could even pair Forte with McFadden if you go RB-RB in the first two rounds. That would give you a great security blanket in Forte to pair with a tremendous upside/risk pick in DMC.

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Obviously the analysis is different if you're in a TD-heavy league. :doh:

 

Not even TD-heavy, just TD-relevant.

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Not even TD-heavy, just TD-relevant.

 

Standard scoring leagues are TD-relevant and Forte has been a solid performer in those leagues. I think pretty much everyone said in this thread that his ceiling is limited due to lack of TDs. The point was if you want to know you've got a guy in or very near the top 10 then Forte is a good pick. Not sure why you are taking any issue with that.

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It all depends on your risk tolerance...

 

Forte or McFadden or Murray??? Who would you choose?

 

If you like upside and are confident you can draft solid backups in the later rounds, you go high risk, high reward. If you want steady production, but nothing flashy you go with the lower risk player.

 

Drafting at the back end of the first is not easy because you dont get any of the top RBs, any of the top QBs or the top WR.

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It all depends on your risk tolerance...

 

Forte or McFadden or Murray??? Who would you choose?

 

If you like upside and are confident you can draft solid backups in the later rounds, you go high risk, high reward. If you want steady production, but nothing flashy you go with the lower risk player.

 

Drafting at the back end of the first is not easy because you dont get any of the top RBs, any of the top QBs or the top WR.

 

Picking 9th in a 10 teamer in 2 weeks. Of those three I'd take McFadden first, Forte second and Murray third. Pretty sure one of them will end up on my roster.

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Another red flag in my mind is the arrival of Jeremy Bates, we had him up here in Seattle and he ran almost no screens to the RB that I can recall or had Lynch catch many passes out of the backfield. Lynch is a pretty decent pass catcher his hands are not as good as Forte but still it was a waste of a useful play and skill especially if your O-line is getting over run like ours was early last year, a couple nice screen passes and it can slow down that pass rush or at least tie up a linebacker.

 

I will admit alot of this was Tavaris Jackson staring down his WR's and refusal to check down but I have to think a part of that is the coaching too. They don't want a check down and they want the pass to go down field to the intermediate and deep routes. Marshall is a great addition and has a proven track record of being a safety blanket for Cutler, does he eat into the simple dump offs Forte used to get? If he takes 15-20 dump off passes away thats a fairly significant chunk of yardage, not to mention the most likely source of Forte's TD's, longer runs in the open field against mismatched defensive players.

 

I like Forte but I would want him in the second round myself but there are so many questions about players in the late first round, second round I could not fault you if you took him in the first. I just think he will come in under last years totals myself by a couple hundred yards mainly in the receiving area.

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