Backup and committee RB's to watch

[Ray_T 589]

Ok, I am looking at teams where either

 

a) There is no clearcut starter

the current starter is either old (over 30) or not as effective as the team would like as a starter.

c) the starter has not fully established to a point where I'd say his starting role is 100% secure

 

These are the places you will most likely find your steal of the draft at RB.

 

Let us look at the possibilities:

 

FYI, this is in No particular order.

 

Green Bay:

While it is questionable that Green bay should be listed as I fully expect Ty Montgomery to win and keep the starting job, the job is not 100% secure yet.

The team has given him the starting job, but drafted two RB's in this year's draft.

Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones. Should Ty get hurt or prove to be unable to handle the starting job, these are your primary backups.

 

KC

 

While Ware is listed as the starter, Hunt has been making waves. I actually like his chances of taking over the starting job by year end. This is a training camp battle we will want to watch.

 

Carolina

Stewart is listed as the starter, but he is 30 years old, and has been delightfully Mediocre. the last 3 years he's been good for roughly 900-1100 all purpose yards. Very little of those yards are through the air. Enter Christian McCaffrey..... A very good RB who can catch the football. he will likely be the back used in pass situations (assuming his blocking skills are where they need to be) and will likely replace Stewart by this time next year. The only question I have is how long will it take?

Keep an eye on the camp reports, this kid may move up the depth chart faster than we think.

 

Seattle

 

Lacy and Rawls are the same sort of player. Lacy has the edge as he can catch the ball as well as run it. But this is not by any means a lock. Prosise is in line to take all 3rd down duty, but I do think he is a dark horse to upset the applecart and become the starter here. This is a scary backfield to own because any one could emerge as the starter. Prosise is the least likely of the 3 backs to be overvalued, and may be a sneaky good pickup in the last round of your draft. FYI, if Lacy does not make the team as a starter, I would expect Seattle may dump him to save cap space.

 

Denver

 

CJA, Charles, and Devontae booker. another scary backfield. CJ is listed as the current starter, but if Charles comes back and regains his former glory, I think it would be tough for Denver not to roll with the hot hand (while it lasts) Watch the camp reports. This will be a good battle to watch.

 

Baltimore

 

The unspectacular, and underrated Terrence West looks to have the inside track to start week 1. Dixon will miss 4 games due to a PED suspension. similar to last year except for the reason Dixon will miss time. This looks like a carbon copy of last year coming again. If West looks good in camp I'd pick him up late. He's not currently in the top 40 on FFToday's cheat sheet, but I'd pick him up as a RB3 in a heartbeat. Here is a serious value pick folks.

 

Indy

 

Gore is the starter and has been a bit of an iron man of late. Last season (at age 33) he became the oldest RB to get 1000 yards in over 30 years. I have a hard time believing he can do this again at the age of 34. Mack is your RB4 (or RB5) for fantasy purposes because if anything happens in Indy, I dont honestly expect them to roll with Robert Turbin. If you draft Gore, this is a must have handcuff.

 

Minnesota

 

Latavius Murray is listed as the starter, but Dalvin Cook and Jerrick McKinnon both are nipping at his heels. It does not help that Murray is recovering from Ankle surgery either. The line hasnt been great in Minnesota, and if the ankle injury affects his ability to cut, he may prove to be ineffective. Watch camp closely, but It wouldnt surprise me if this backfield starts the year off as a committee with Cook gradually becoming the lead back over the course of the season.

 

New Orleans

 

Ingram is listed as the starter, but ADP could easily become the starter here. ADP is 32 years old, so some caution is needed. But this could easily become a committee.

 

Watch the camp reports on this one.

 

Philly:

 

Blount, Smallwood and Sproles.

 

Sproles is 34 so I really do not expect him to take much more than a situational role in this offense.

 

I think Blount will be the hammer (or thunder) and Smallwood will be the scat back (or the lightning) We may see a number of two back sets with some interesting play calls to get each of these guys some good opportunites.

 

Smallwood has produced when given the Touches. Note week 3 vs PIT where he got 79 yards on 17 carries and week 10 vs atlanta when he got 70 yards on 13 carries. and week 11 vs SEA when he got 48 yards on 13 carries and 4 catches for 31 yards. I'd suggest this kid is one of the most underrated players in the NFL.

 

Washington

 

Rob Kelly is currently listed as the starter. He became the defacto starter last year when Matt Jones proved he couldnt hang onto the football. But Perine was drafted this year, and has a reasonable chance to overtake him as the starter. This will be a very interesting camp battle to watch. a smart person could wait, and grab both players late in a draft (or for cheap at an auction) and one of these guys could emerge to be a solid RB3 or low end RB2.

 

Detroit

 

Abdullah is listed as the starter. This kid has talent, but has had issues with holding onto the football in 2015. in 2016 he looked REALLY good, but then got injured. The sample size is small, and we dont know if he has truly resolved his problems holding onto the football, but the early returns are good. Theo Reddick and Zach Zenner are the likely candidates to start if Abdullah cannot handle his duties as the starter. Reddick is the likely 3rd down back regardless. But Zenner has an outside chance to surprise.

[murf74 461]

People are much to quick to give rookies the start over some above average vets this year. In a dynasty I understand concern.

[Kent 228]

Stay away from all of Minnesota. That line is pitiful. When AP was healthy last year his YPC was abysmal. Let the suckers take Vikings Runners this year.

[cousinal111 57]

Baltimore - Woodhead wasn't mentioned and could be a solid RB2 in PPR.

[Ray_T 589]

Stay away from all of Minnesota. That line is pitiful. When AP was healthy last year his YPC was abysmal. Let the suckers take Vikings Runners this year.

it sure was.

 

but there is hope.

 

They drafted a very technically sound kid named Pat Elflein who plays Center. Likely he would start out at Guard and move to Center in a year (or Two)

 

They also signed Reiff and Remmers. It was suggested that Reiff can play both LT and RT but I think he is more ideally suited to RT(the spot Remmers should play)

 

Reiff graded out reasonably well as a run blocker, but not so well at pass protection.

 

I dont think they have plugged all the holes, but I think the line will be better than what they had last season (for whatever that's worth)

[Ray_T 589]

Baltimore - Woodhead wasn't mentioned and could be a solid RB2 in PPR.

Maybe in PPR, but not standard leagues.

 

I generally dont put a lot of faith in RB's once they get past the age of 30. I got burned with LT thinking he would be different, but nope.

 

I wouldnt draft him higher than an RB3 in any format.

[Smileseers 54]

New Orleans

Ingram is listed as the starter, but ADP could easily become the starter here. ADP is 32 years old, so some caution is needed. But this could easily become a committee.

 

 

Don't forget that the Saints traded up in the third round to draft RB Alvin Kamara. Ingram and AP will both be drafted too high. Neither may be there for owners weeks 14-17. Kamara could be a waiver wire gem when either goes down, or a good stash in a dynasty league.

 

Kamara will be part of that committee sooner than later.

 

 

Nice thread topic.

[Ray_T 589]

 

New Orleans

Ingram is listed as the starter, but ADP could easily become the starter here. ADP is 32 years old, so some caution is needed. But this could easily become a committee.

 

 

Don't forget that the Saints traded up in the third round to draft RB Alvin Kamara. Ingram and AP will both be drafted too high. Neither may be there for owners weeks 14-17. Kamara could be a waiver wire gem when either goes down, or a good stash in a dynasty league.

 

Kamara will be part of that committee sooner than later.

 

 

Nice thread topic.

 

I was also thinking that if it's not a committee, the loser in the battle to be the starter will likely be cut or traded.

[weepaws 2,459]

I think Ty Montgomery is a tough one to rank.

 

Im personally having a tough time taking him seriously as the Packers Rb1.

 

He had only one game during the regular season in which he had more than 9 rushing att.

 

And he finshed 33 in ff points in a ppr league.

 

I think J Williams is my early pick to over take him and will indeed be the better value.

[weepaws 2,459]

I was on the Ware wagon last season, and he looked great early on.

 

His first 6 games he avg 18 ff points, his last 8 games 10.

 

I think Hunt could indeed over take him by week one, if Reid would allow it.

[weepaws 2,459]

I think Mccaffery is a rb2 in a ppr league.

 

The Rb situation with the Seahawks is one that I'm going to try to stay far away from.

 

I don't see a clear cut rb1, if both Lacy and Rawls are healthy its going to be the hot hand gets the majority of the att.

 

I'm not buying into the J Charles hype. I think Booker will be better this season and will be used often.

 

But I think if Anderson is healthy he's the one to own.

[weepaws 2,459]

Gore will indeed start out the season as the Colts rb1.

 

But I think Mack will be used more and more as the season goes on and will be a very good value pick.

 

Ppr league I like Cook with the Vikings, he will lose short yardage and goal line work to L Murray.

 

But in a ppr league I like Cook as a rb3.

 

I'm going to target Ingram more then I will Peterson in a ppr league.

 

I think Ingram will receive more rushing att then most think he will, Peterson should receive the most rushing att but I think Ingram will receive a fair share and is a much better value in a ppr league.

[weepaws 2,459]

The Eagles Rb situation is another one I'm going to try to stay away from.

 

I don't like Blount in a ppr league and he won't post the rushing totals he did with the Pats, and I'm mostly speaking of the TD totals.

 

Perine is the one to own with the Redskins, but I think Kelley will still be used more often then most think.

 

After Riddick I'm not buying any other Lions Rb.

[polecatt 402]

I will say Carolina, Seattle, and Denver

I believe all of those are ripe for someone to take over and have a solid season and with all 3 teams, we have a decent idea who it will be.

That's with the exception of Denver. They are always hard to figure out but they almost always have a stud RB.

The rest of them could have a break out RB but seem more likely to fall back to week to week, in and out of line up, head aches.

KC is usually a good team for a starting RB but they may have some competition this season and inconsistency from any given RB. I expect a winner to eventually emerge and when he does, he'll be a fantasy starter.

[Ray_T 589]

I will say Carolina, Seattle, and Denver

I believe all of those are ripe for someone to take over and have a solid season and with all 3 teams, we have a decent idea who it will be.

That's with the exception of Denver. They are always hard to figure out but they almost always have a stud RB.

The rest of them could have a break out RB but seem more likely to fall back to week to week, in and out of line up, head aches.

KC is usually a good team for a starting RB but they may have some competition this season and inconsistency from any given RB. I expect a winner to eventually emerge and when he does, he'll be a fantasy starter.

half the time everyone is wrong with Denver even when there is a clear cut starter.

 

This is one team that isnt afraid to bench the vet and play the kid if the vet isnt getting it done.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

half the time everyone is wrong with Denver even when there is a clear cut starter.

 

This is one team that isnt afraid to bench the vet and play the kid if the vet isnt getting it done.

Weird how that always happens in Denver regardless of the coach

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

I typically only do PPR leagues and I want Woodhead on all my teams. I also like grabbing Mack late in drafts and think he has a good shot behind Gore. I wouldn't mind Cook but I'm not grabbing him at his ADP right now. Williams from GB is a consideration late in a draft and that's about it for me as I'm not a fan of most team's crowded backfields.

[cousinal111 57]

I typically only do PPR leagues and I want Woodhead on all my teams.

Ditto. I could easily see 70 catches, 900 total yards, 6 TD's.

[Ray_T 589]

Ditto. I could easily see 70 catches, 900 total yards, 6 TD's.

so at 32 years of age, you are predicting he will have his third best season ever?

 

I'm not buying it.

 

I'm predicting 50 catches for 400-500 yards receiving and 200 yards rushing. and that is his upside.

 

I wouldnt bet on more.

[weepaws 2,459]

I going to say 60 rec for 537 yards and four tds.

[cousinal111 57]

so at 32 years of age, you are predicting he will have his third best season ever?

 

I'm not buying it.

 

I'm predicting 50 catches for 400-500 yards receiving and 200 yards rushing. and that is his upside.

 

I wouldnt bet on more.

Yes I am. His best seasons have been his last 2 healthy seasons (2013 & 2015), where he had at least 75 catches, 1,000 yards, 8 TD's.

 

You dont have to be a spring chicken to do those things he does & Baltimore had 3 RB'S last year with 30 catches each.

[Ray_T 589]

Yes I am. His best seasons have been his last 2 healthy seasons (2013 & 2015), where he had at least 75 catches, 1,000 yards, 8 TD's.

 

You dont have to be a spring chicken to do those things he does & Baltimore had 3 RB'S last year with 30 catches each.

yeah, so 2 of the last 4 seasons he has been healthy enough to put up career highs and now he's 32 and you're betting on him to do it again.

 

from the sound of things, you have a 50% chance of injury with this guy. and he's not getting younger.

 

draft him if you want. but guys like this are better suited as your RB3. Then if they get injured they wont mess up your fantasy year.

[Kent 228]

Yes I am. His best seasons have been his last 2 healthy seasons (2013 & 2015), where he had at least 75 catches, 1,000 yards, 8 TD's.

 

You dont have to be a spring chicken to do those things he does & Baltimore had 3 RB'S last year with 30 catches each.

Different everything in Baltimore. He was close to a focal point for SAN Diego. It's a stretch to say he's gonna have the same role.

[weepaws 2,459]

I don't see him having more then 50 or so rec with the Ravens.

 

And he's no better then a rb3 in a ppr league.

[cousinal111 57]

In my opinion, Woodhead's role will be similar. Baltimore knew what they were getting when they signed him, one of the premier receiving backs in the NFL. They gave him 3 years, 8.8 million.

 

Obviously injuries are a concern, but my argument is that he could be a PPR steal late in your draft. Baltimore RB's caught 100 balls last year and Dixon has to sit the first 4 games. I could also see Baltimore in a lot of close, come from behind situations.

 

I wouldn't draft him as my ppr RB2, but that reward is possible if he stays healthy.

[Ray_T 589]

In my opinion, Woodhead's role will be similar. Baltimore knew what they were getting when they signed him, one of the premier receiving backs in the NFL. They gave him 3 years, 8.8 million.

 

Obviously injuries are a concern, but my argument is that he could be a PPR steal late in your draft. Baltimore RB's caught 100 balls last year and Dixon has to sit the first 4 games. I could also see Baltimore in a lot of close, come from behind situations.

 

I wouldn't draft him as my ppr RB2, but that reward is possible if he stays healthy.

ok. That's a fair comment.

 

I'd agree late in the draft if you grab this guy as a RB3 (or RB4 if you can get away with it) he will probably provide some good value. if Healthy, he will give you some spot starts when he has a good matchup (assuming you are willing to bench your RB2 to do it)

 

I just didnt think he should be drafted as a RB2. Now that you have cleared up what you meant, I'll say I agree.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

ok. That's a fair comment.

 

I'd agree late in the draft if you grab this guy as a RB3 (or RB4 if you can get away with it) he will probably provide some good value. if Healthy, he will give you some spot starts when he has a good matchup (assuming you are willing to bench your RB2 to do it)

 

I just didnt think he should be drafted as a RB2. Now that you have cleared up what you meant, I'll say I agree.

 

If I'm taking a RB in the first round then grabbing a couple WRs after then I'm perfectly happy with Woodhead being my RB2.

[weepaws 2,459]

i think taking Woodhead in the forth round as a rb2 is a big gamble.

 

There should be other Rbs with more upside potential available.

 

I see him being drafted no higher than a rb3, and that's in a ppr league.

 

I think there is caution on my side because I'm not so sure how he will do with the Ravens.

 

I do indeed think he's the Rb to own from the Ravens.