to be fair i have no clue how youre doing because I havn't been popping into these threads all that much, Im just going based on our discussions in another thread (the one where i was looking for a new site, i think) where you were lecturing on ATS being the only way to play and parlays being bad because of the juice. Then you admitted to probably having lost more than youve won over your gambling lifetime (most people have) and saying that you generally just wager to try to break even and cash out.
I guess my point is, sometimes you need to forget about the math and not let the extra juice sway you (the house always gets their cut) and just friggin gamble... take 2 teams you really like and parlay them. Yeah, you might lose lets say 10 dollars but you might win 24+, where as those same two teams bet individually ATS, youd have to put $20 on the line, and win both to win $18 (or in my case put 22 on the line to win 20 because thats how I wager on ATS). And if you want a backstop to break even, take your absolute lock of the week and bet that ATS to cover any potential parlay loss.
I may have mentioned it a few times but I'm pretty sure you and gobbledog were the ones going back and forth a ton.
I have hardly lectured anyone on how to bet (although maybe I forgot) I usually just let it be known that I think parlaying is bad betting long term. And that there is a reason why newbies and very casual betters prefer them. They are attractive and cheaper to play.
To me parlaying just adds one more layer to the sheer luck that is involved. When do you know when to parlay vs. when to go straight up? Or is it a totally random add on? Like the 2 plays I had this week...I went 1-1....if I bet parlays and ATS would I have parlayed them? When would I know? What if I went back over the year and saw a lost a lot of 2-1 weeks because I made 3 team parlays out of those weeks? To me adding one more layer and random wrench into the already random event that is NFL gambling....decreases your odds at least a little.
I'm in no way bashing anyone on how they go about betting or telling you how to bet. But in a gambling thread full of opinions...I guess I will give my opinion on how I bet and what I think works. People can win, especially in small periods, with any method. But in my experience, I have always heard or read that parlays are poor odds. And the math works out. Albeit, not a huge fraction when looking through casual gambler glasses. But to a career gambler, that fraction means a ton over the long term. Any decent gambler I know or have read play ATS, O/U, and some teasers (and actually the juicy 10pt 3 team teasers). I have never really read or heard of pro NFL gamblers using parlays. I have seen good handicappers using parlays to cross sports, especially sports like Boxing, MMA, soccer....betting money lines. But never seen one throw a 3 team NFL parlay out there feeling like they have so much an edge to hit all 3. I guess maybe I have seen a parlay of the O/U and Point Spread of the same game, if they feel they have a serious edge in say late injury or weather.
When I first started throwing bets on the NFL I had the mindset you have. And I had some beginners luck the first 2 years before I learned my lesson. I figured just pick winner. I felt I know the NFL pretty well and just pick winners. And sometimes I was confident in 2 or 3 that I would parlay since I was greedy. But I saw casual gamblers and how they do things and good gamblers and how they do things, much in part because one of my friends was my 1st bookie. A couple of my friends who are as square as it gets have one thing in common....they have to feel good about the team they are betting. I know that sounds stupid. But they would not pick a bad team. They would avoid close lines when the teams looked even. They would need to bet on Brady, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Favre, Manning. When they were really losing they would resort to teasers and would ALWAYS tease the -7 or -6 favorite down to -1 or pk-- as the bookie then would only take 6pt teasers. So to me it just looked like they only wanted to place bets on the very square side as it made them feel good before they consistently lost their ass and couldn't understand why.
And I have always said this, it all depends what you are in it for. I'm not really trying to make a ton of money. I'm not one of those 24hr casino guys thinking he has an edge and can make a living. But I am around twice as many wins as losses right now. Probably up around 500 bucks. But I have had a good year to this point. I may have screwed it up returning to betting last week. I took a few weeks off. I try not to bet just to bet. If I don't really like something, I'd rather not bet, which I have worked on over the last few years.