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The fallacy many fall for is rookies do worse than 2nd year back. That is entirely based on opportunity. Rookies often do not get opportunity. Those who do produce. Way more than older backs. Many people can’t process this information correctly.
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The Rotoballer link has a larger sample size and shows rookies taken outside the first. The overwhelming take away is rookie RBs who earn a big role, almost regardless of where they are drafted, do very well. Early first rounders simply fall in this category of having big rookie roles more often due to draft capital / talent. That article has lots of evidence that’s difficult to ignore. The only wildcard seems to be injury, but that’s true for anyone.
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Some wild takes here like avoiding rookie RBs. Rookie RBs taken in the first two rounds historically return excellent value. This article is a bit old and RBs aren’t drafted in the first round much anymore. It is clear though, the ones who earn a big role tend to do very well (Gibbs will have a huge role). Bijan’s best comp is Barkley based on draft capital and he was #1 overall as a rookie. Passing on rookie RBs who have earned a big role is for sure a losing strategy. Heck, Doug Martin was the #2 overall RB his rookie season and never whiffed that success again. Regarding Montgomery, he is absolutely just a guy. The Lions like him plenty and I think he will get around 200ish carries. That still leaves 250+ touches for Gibbs on one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. The Lions ran 480 times last season. Atlanta ran a staggering 559 times! Allgeier can get 250 Carrie’s and Bijan can still push for 300 touches. These were two of the most running heavy teams and have the same coaches in place. They’re using the RBs. A LOT. Montgomery was severely outplayed by Herbert and has a pedestrian 3.9 YPC for his career. He isn’t going to plant Gibbs on the bench, he’s a compliment. The Lions will use Gibbs like a #12 overall selection barring injury. Camp reports have been glowing. You might not like his ADP, but passing on Gibbs because of Montgomery or being a rookie isn’t supported by evidence. https://www.rotoballer.com/are-rookie-running-backs-undervalued-in-fantasy/904045 here is the text from a tweet on the subject: RBs taken in the top 12 of the NFL Draft have been immediate fantasy studs. Rookie season points per game since 2012: Saquon Barkley: RB2 Leonard Fournette: RB8 Ezekiel Elliott: RB3 Todd Gurley: RB5 Trent Richardson: RB7 Christian McCaffrey: RB13
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Can. Not. Be. Trusted. I’d never start a Pete Carroll flavor of the week RB in the playoffs unless extremely desperate.
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Devonta Freeman. Like him getting a high percentage of carries, healthy, and in a good offense. He went a 1 and 2 picks ahead of me in my two money leagues.
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Exactly, especially with $3 million guaranteed. They aren’t just kicking the tires on a retread. McCoy is going to play. A lot. I consider him the most likely to lead KC backs in FFL points this year while they groom Thompson to take over. I bet McCoy looks rejuvenated. Think he still has a year or two left in the tank, as long as it’s not with a horrible offense like the Jets or Bills.
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I put my money on Sanders. Thomas looks suddenly slow.
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Dropped him in both leagues. I have a hard time seeing him getting enough touches to be serviceable in a terrible RB offense.
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Clement in dynasty if you can. Sproles is going to retire and Ajayi is headed to free agency. I could see the Eagles drafting someong but think they give Clement a solid tryout this year. If it goes well, he could be the feature RB on an elite (Wentz led) offense.
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To answer your question, no. I think you won week 1 in dumbness.
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I think he’s making the best financial decision. Play 8 games for $7M and keep the touch count below 250. He envisioned the Steelers giving him 450 touches and he was right to assume that. Two straight 400 touch seasons and teams shy away in free agency. $7M is not a lot of guaranteed money. He will get that based on half a season and teams know the Steelers handled this in a way ALL players hate. Bell was willing to be a 400 touch guy, he just wanted some guaranteed money in case the Steelers ran his career in to the dirt. As a Lions fan, I hope they sign and pay Bell this offseason and we never see a Riddick play again, ever.
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Enunwa is the clear #1 waiver wire. 10 targets on 21 attempts is insane usage. Sometimes 21 attempts is a warning sign but the Jets aren’t going to blow out teams this year. That game was a fluke of Lions magnitude (Lions fan here, seen this too many times). The Jets will not run that well against other teams and their D will come back to earth as well. I suspect Darnold will be a 30-35 attempt guy most weeks.
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As Carr checked down to underneath receivers on nearly every play, I recalled the days of Warrick Dunn and Charlie Garner. Those were check down teams as well so Im surprised to see Gruden speak out. He was clearly fine and successful feeding underneath backs for those teams. Garner caught 72 passes one season. He made Alstott fantasy relevant. Tim Brown and Joey Galloway were good to great as well so its not all bad news for Cooper. That Richard guy seems like hes made for the Gruden offense. Lynch, not so much.
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That’s the one thing he’s absolutely without doubt wrong about. No idea on his lineup question, it’s fantasy, make your call and nut up.
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He’s holding out because Pittsburgh didn’t even pretend their intention was anything other than running him until the wheels fall off (destroying his FA value) and then promptly cutting him in the offseason.