Ray_T

yeah, I gotta agree. if the QB takes you to a superbowl win, it was the right move to make.

Well, I draft players based on a number of things. production on the field is only one of them When ranking a number of players that are at roughly the same level (or we will say the same tier) the guy at the bottom of that tier for me is usually the guy least likely to stay healthy based on that players historical health. If that player falls in the draft, I consider taking that player but I do not pick him ahead of guys in the same tier who have a good history of staying healthy. while injuries are impossible to avoid completely, by doing this I minimize the odds of having my season de railed by injury. injury analysis is a big part of what I do when prepping for my draft and honestly most of the times I've had injury problems has been when I have ignored that analysis and took the player anyways. I also bump up players on my list who are playing for a contract. and I do probably a better job than most in looking at high upside 2nd and 3rd year players. Naturally I could always do better but I have found that taking risks later in the draft seems to yield more than taking risks early in the draft. and for me, doing well at the draft table is mostly about risk management. its also about picking good players, but anyone can take a list of the 100 best players and draft fromt the list and be jsomewhere between slightly below average to slightly above average. for me this other stuff I spoke about above (if you do a decent job of it) should elevate you just a little bit to put you in contention. its not a guarantee of a win but it gives you a small advantage. think about it. if you have 1 injury to a starter over the course of the year and most people have 2. thats likely a 3 to 10 point advantage you have over most everyone else (depending on position) it should be a significant part of your strategy.

given the body of work I wouldnt rank him that high but i feel he has significant potential that he has yet to fully unlock. Hes definitely a potential starting WR and one you might be able to snag with a third round pick.

yeah, those kind of injuries usually mess you up. you may come back in a few games but usually you are not fully able to perform until the next season. not sure where hes projected to go, but he could certainly be one of those WR picked later who becomes a solid player. I think a better QB and pro level coaching could work wonders for him.

yeah, you had the absolute worst luck with him. once again.... most of the time if your team does not stay healthy, it does not matter how good they are. if your players dont play, you dont win. that's the bottom line.

I think he may be able to play wide too. I'm not certain of it. but I think its possible. as for the ratings, Most I think are fair. But I'd rate him higher on ball tracking than you do. On the first case, (at 7:23 on your tape) it looks like he tracked the ball well enough to get both hands on the ball. I dont know what more you can ask in terms of tracking. the issue was that the throw was a bit ahead of him and he had to reach to make the catch. I see you also had this categorized as a hands issue and I'd agree with that. on the second case (at 11:22 on your tape) you highligted as poor ball tracking, the ball was clearly overthrown. He dove for the ball and fully stretched out his body and could only get fingertips on the ball. but he fully knew where the ball was. he just didnt have the wheels to catch up to the pass. This combined with some of the other good cases where the ball was in some cases way off target and he adjusted to the ball to make the catch, I was quite impressed with. but I am a bit concerned a bit about his hands. this may or may not be coachable. it looks like (for the most part) when he has to really reach for the ball his hands just are not as good. but keeping in mind that QB's at the NFL level will be far more accurate than what we've seen on the tape, I think he should be ok. He just probably is a #2 receiver (or a highly productive #3) and not a #1 WR. Though I think there is that upside but I dont think its highly likely that he achieves that at the NFL level.

haha I'm with you there. I love players who are playing for a contract. its almost always a good bet.

Thats actually a bit less than I thought he'd get. but at a 4 year term, he likely gets one more big payday. so maybe that's just as good for the player.

ok I just took a look at the ball tracking tape posted online here. other than the one case that was listed as an example where he didnt track the ball, that ball was off by an awful lot. its questionable if the ball was catchable. it is possible that the WR didnt read it the same as the QB and was in the wrong location. but if that's the case, that's not a ball tracking issue that's someone making the wrong read. the other examples of ball tracking looked pretty solid. in the end I think this kid will be a decent pro WR. Granted given his size teams WILL try to jam him at the line, so given his size that is a risk factor for him. a successful Jam at the LOS likely makes him easy to control. Thats where most of the risk is with this kid.

that said, the NFL QB will be far more accurate than the college QB. I have to think it wont be as big an issue at the NFL level if the ball is where it needs to be.

yeah and on a Deep Ball you need that ability. all that speed is no good if you cant track the ball.

fair enough. but they are the same type of player. Their speed was what made them viable as an NFL player. DeSean had the better hands. Heyward Bey had better speed. this kid has better speed than both of them though it is close.

yeah but all 3 had blazing speed. one comp (Jackson) was able to put together a nice career as a top WR. the other(Heyward Bey) was never much more than a field stretching WR3 with the exeception of one season where he was a solid WR2 (975 yards receiving).

I think if he goes anytime in the second round, the team getting him will get good value. I think hed be a first round pick in almost any other year, but the depth at WR in this draft has pushed him down the draft board a bit. Granted not a high first round pick but a first nonetheless. in theory, if a WR needy team (ie. Bills, Chargers) could grab one of the top WR prospects in round 1 and come back to grab him in round 2, they'd be set at the position for a decade (barring injury)

thats the thing. you dont know if you are getting Desean Jackson or Heyward-Bey. could legitimately be either or somewhere in between