Ruphus

While I was very down on Larry Johnson last year, I do not think he is that bad this year, but that has more to do with the fact that his value will be lower this year. I think LJ is a lock for a 1250-1500 total yards and 7-10 total TD's this year. Which puts him right with Edgerrin James in value, stat wise. Solid 2nd round choices, maybe 3rd if you get lucky, but not a 1st. A Solid #2 RB, but I would not want to rely on him as my #1 RB if you are going heavy on RB's. I think he's the solid pickup for the person who locks in a top QB or that top WR early.

Something else to consider, and most people overlook this one guy on San Diego, was the fullback Lorenzo Neal. He has been the FB for LT and Turner since 2003, before even Turner was in the league. Neal had a MAJOR influence on LT's and Turners stats, not to mention that San Diego has had at the worst, an above average OL and at least a mediocre defense. Turner has none of these in Atlanta, unless Neal signs with them (he was released by SD this year, which I believe will really kill LT's stats). I don't think Turner will be a complete bust, but expecting him to be "worthy" of a 2nd/3rd pick might be a little more than I can expect from him, or anyone on ATL's roster. I think I would rather take my chances on a decent QB or WR in those rounds, or even a different RB that had a slump year in 2007.

You do realize, the Patriots are hurting for cap room, have Randy Moss, Junior Seau, Ted Bruschi, Asante Samuel, Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth, Kelley Washington, Chad Scott, Larry Izzo, Randall Gay, Chad Scott, and Eugene Wilson all as some form of Free Agent this year right? And this is just their starters and backups with significant playing time, there is more... they are just relatively unknowns. And for those that don't know.... or care to look it up.... Yes, 5 of their top 6 WR's are FA's this year, their best DB, half their starting LB's, and their best special teams player, as well as a bunch of solid back ups. If last year was the "Peak" of their Dynasty.... then in 2 years, they will be competively playing for the first pick in the draft. And to who said.... * I give you a and a cause your the only WINNAH in this thread

He is applying for reinstatement today/tomorrow. He is still suspended for the first 8? (I forget) weeks of this season for last years failed test/physical since it was his 4th? (forgot again, to much smokey smokey) failed P-Test. He is still property of the Miami Dolphins, and would be under contract from them should he be reinstated. Coach Cameron of Miami has not suggested that he will be traded, released or allowed to rejoin him. Saban last year said he would not allow him back, but he didn't have to make that decision, as Ricky's failed test made it for him. I don't expect Miami to keep him, and I would love to see him back, from a fantasy perspective. There are many teams that need him. And to the person who said that, "Anyone who is thinking about picking up RICKY WILLIAMS has lost this season...." I'm 3-0, about to be 4-0, and I'm looking at picking him up. Stupid would be ignoring that he was a stud at one point, and might be coming into a GREAT situation. Stupid would ignore news like this, and go on to take their leagues Toilet Bowl. Go ahead and ignore him, and take somebody's backup like Brian Leonard, or Jerious Norwood, or Deangelo Williams.... yeah those guys deserve roster space

I'm the one who should check themselves? LOL to funny. Dude, get over yourself and stop being either a delusional homer or LJ owner. Fact is fact, last year LJ had a HoF lineman left still, a QB that was at least mediocre, and he didn't holdout throughout preseason and training camp. Talking about not paying attention to stats. You do realize that YPC means jack and sh!t to Fantasy Football right? So your saying LT2 sucks after having two bad games against very good teams and defenses in NE and Chi, yet LJ is great even though he sucked against the friggin Texans !? Sure he did ok against Chicago, but you can't knitpick your stats here bub, they do not lie. So lemme get this right Smurf74, LJ can have a couple bad games and is still Fantasy Gold, but LT can't, even though he's been doing it longer and better? Gimme a focking break. And the cards do still pretty much suck. This "one of the best WR tandems in the NFL" is currently not as good as any 2 Detroit WR's, not as good as NE's better 2 WR's, hell even CLEVELAND is diong it better in the air than Arizona is. Whats funny is I own Leinart and James in my main league, and I'm not delusional over the fact that Zona doesn't have a defense, Leinart is turning the ball over and only performing at a mediocre level. They are 1-1, not even in the top half of the NFL in scoring, nor in the top half in defense. Maybe you should get your head out of your arse and pay attention to Fantasy Football this year. Or did you decide to just say fock it since you drafted LJ and your team is a nightmare, so you just come here and thrash everyone's opinions? Thought so.

Can't say I agree. If he was "one of the best" and not a product of a once great OL, then he would still be tearing it up to a point. LT did it when the Chargers were sucking, Barry did it and the Lions were never "good" during his stretch, aside from a couple playoff runs, which you can thank Barry for.... The Cards still suck pretty much, but Edge is tearing it up.... there is a pattern here..... I'm not saying LJ sucks or anything, he is very damn good, but to call him one of the best, even among the current active RB's, is a really big slight to some of the truly great ones we have playing now.....

Spot on. Although, I do believe Randy "Slacked" a bit in Oaktown, but then again, wouldn't you? I mean if your 10 weeks into the season, and they already have you penciled in to draft #1, wouldn't your routes lack a bit of steam, if you were a WR? But Randy proves.... once a stud, always a stud.... only thing that hinders a stud producing stud numbers is horrible surrounding talent. Look at LJ Add me to the list of "wish I, would I, could I, gimme moss dammit, *cry*!

NE proves..... it will still spread the ball Miami proves.... they are Miami, nothing but extremely deep fantasy stock here plz, move along Cleveland.... well, same ol cleveland Houston.... is Houston that good... or KC that bad? I'm leaning toward KC and that makeshift OL Indy is Indy, he who holds most Indy players at seasons end = fantasy guru RBBC's are sucking..... a good 40% of the games have large chunks of carries split between at least 2 RB's, and neither are getting squat. Portis is fantasy gold, while he's not injured Might name more later =p

No offense, but this is a commonly made, overused mistake in Fantasy Football. Most anyone and everyone thinks "Oh I HAVE to get a RB in the 1st round!" but you should never pick up a player or specific position just cause "everyone else does". Every year there are TONS of fantasy teams that stick to the "RB horde strategy" and lemme tell ya right now, TONS of teams do not win the championship, only 1 team from EVERY league. So many people are ready to take the "next RB in line" before taking a true stud at another position, their drafting becomes predictable, and veterans in the leagues will rip you apart. You should never pick a "#12-14" ranked player over a #1 ranked player just because every one else is. Truth be told, 40% or more of those #12-14 Running Backs will not be in the top 10 at the end of the year. Some RB's will get hurt, others just won't perform, others teams will suck, etc etc. Just do the math. The fantasy points the #1 QB + the #16 RB is no worse than the fantasy points the #12 RB + the #5 QB will put up, in fact, they may even be better. Remember to use Tiers.... so many people fail to use them, and they are a great boon to ANY drafter. Just because it's the middle to the end of the 1st round, everyone has taken a RB, none of the ones you like are left, doesn't mean you should "grab the next best RB available" especially if it's someone like Travis Henry and you really have this gut feeling he's gonna suck or Shanahan isn't gonna give him 75% of the touches. Take Peyton, or one of those elite WR's, and pick up a RB you do appreciate at the draft value they should go at. Running Backs don't win championships, STUDS and solid drafts will win championships. Now, as I stated earlier, I don't specifically condone drafting Peyton before a RB in the first round, but I do stand behind picking the best player available, and I do stand behind my own personal projections, even if they aren't very accurate at the end of the year. You should draft who you want, not what the so called "experts" want. If I'm sitting there at pick 6 or beyond, and all my "choice" RB's are gone, you better believe I am going to go over all my tiers and see what I will get the MOST points out of, whether it's drafting the next best RB, the top QB or a top WR. Rounds don't matter to me, just who is available, and who all might get picked between my pick and my next pick.

Define "bounce back" year.... he had 1... yes 1 TD last year, he can ONLY improve..... Easiest run schedule.... not so much a fantasy beast of a team. 4th/5th round, worth it.... 3rd.... eh... you can a genuine stud in the 3rd (WR, QB, etc), and I dunno if I would call Caddy a stud at this point in time.

As the Pimp already states, you really need to be able to shore up other positions with your other picks. Peyton is a bonafide stud. He will give you consistancy, high points and you never have to question whether or not to start him, but to draft him high, you either need to have a keeper RB stored away (if you league allows keepers) or you need to have a very strong feeling that a RB you select in the 2/3/4/5 rounds will turn into a top 10 back. Me personally, I just drafted Peyton Manning with the 1st pick in my leagues draft, but the has more to do with the fact that we have 10-12 players of each position kept every year (aside from TE, Defense, and Kicker) and while I could have taken LaDainian Thomlinson with my pick, I would have been screwed for QB's, as every QB down to Kitna was gone by the 3rd, and I did not get a 2nd pick (SJax was my keeper RB, and he cost me a 2nd round pick this year). So under certain circumstances, I am very high on having Manning on any fantasy team, but it depends on each situation. With standard formats, even with unusual scoring variables like your league, I think I would still try and get the best available RB, Addai, Alexander, Westbrook, etc etc (I do not advise anyone to draft LJ this year). If your dead set on getting Manning, trade your draft picks for somebody a few picks later. If you take Manning #3, your 2nd round RB choices are gonna be from guys like Portis, Edge, Caddy, R, Brown, and MJD..... and you won't get much choice from these guys either, most, if not all, will go in the 2nd, and since you will pick so late in the 2nd, you won't get your choice of them, you will get whichever one falls to you (which is gonna suck if you get stuck with someone like Caddy or Ronnie as your main RB). Manning + Portis < Addai/Alexander + Palmer/Brees/Brady And that is just through 2 picks. Again, all this is moot if you feel strongly enough about the potential RB's you'll get in the 2nd/3rd round. If you really think you can land like.... Portis and Brandon Jacobs and you think they will be studs this year, the go for it, otherwise I would go with what you know will work.

Exactly my thoughts, only the rarest few "special" cases break the 370f/carries curse. If you look further and start comparing when RB's get injured after consistant seasons of a large workload, it's scary to draft RB's like Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Thomlinson. Only the big time RB's were able to keep up consistant 370+ carry seasons without sustaining injuries that would otherwise kill their fantasy values. LaDainian is on that threshold... if he holds up for one more stellar year, I think it'll be safe to start calling him one of the "special" and possibly the best....

I am a Miami homer, but I would most likely take McGahee over Ronnie if I had to choose. Miami is a fair bit of speculation at this point, sure, Trent Green and the new offensive coach should mean better numbers from Miami's O this year, but being realistic, they are still gonna be a fairly sucky team overall, and not generally playoff bound. McGahee and Baltimore on the other hand, ARE a playoff calibur team, and will play like it all year. McGahee's situation is a lot better than RB in Miami. Ronnie might have a bit more risk/upside cause Miami will need SOMETHING from somewhere to win games, and while they have a good defense, it's no longer great, and their 2ndary is getting uglier by the year. Miami's OL is still a big ? where at least Baltimores OL is old but still pretty damn good. McNair has also had more time to gel with the offense, Trent Green and all of Miami is going through their 3rd new offense in 3 years. Yuck.

I think I would be praying to those lucky stars if you choose LJ this year. He is falling off for very good reason. No RB in fantasy football history has performed up to 1st round billing the year after a 400+ touch season. All but Eddie George were hurt, and even George stunk it up pretty good that next year. Plus, he's holding out. Oh, and he's HoF line is gone. And he has a new QB, new OL, a TE that is getting old, and no respectable WR on the team. All fingers point to this being the biggest bust of the year. Read this thread, this will show you why, and for good reason, LJ's fantasy stock are dropping like 5 dolla hooka's in Vegas, on BJ night. RB Stat Trends And I do gotta give Brandon Anderson some props, that was a very well written article about some lesser known stats and inquiries.... even if he did tell the whole world about them, grrr hehe. *shakes fist*