Bizarre WR-WR Idea

[skittles 0]

Alright, I believe this post is going to end up quite long, so please, serious FF players with experience, stick with me here. Let me give you all of the setup:

 

THE LEAGUE: 12 Team, Redraft. 6 pt per passing/rushing/recieving. 1 pt/10 rushing recieving. 1 pt/25 passing. 1 pt per reception. 6 year of redraft in league with many vets, and about 4 unconventional hard to predict newbies.

 

ABOUT ME: 10th pick, serpentine style draft. I'm a pretty storied and successful fantasy owner. In this running league, redraft, I am the only owner to make the playoffs (4 slots) every year. Last year I picked up my first league championship, largely on the back of #1 overall pick Tomlinson, and Lamont Jordan & Antonio Gates (acquired by trade). I would label myself a successful, and rather conventional owner, with a great ability to wheel and deal and acquire players in the season (through trade or free agency).

 

THE DILEMMA: Just to throw this out there: Peyton Manning will not be available at my 10th overall position, I know this as fact. If he were, I'd take him. Now I know most people would look at this face value and just tell me to take Rudi Johnson, Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson, whoever falls to me. I know that is probably the smart and safe move. But this is one of the first draft classes I recall that is so short on studliness. Outside of LT, LJ, and Alexander, you just have no sure things this year. It is common knowledge (although consistently overlooked) that Running Backs have much higher bust potential than the other skill positions, especially in the top tiers. For the first time in my fantasy career, I'm considering doing something unconventional and crazy, and going WR-WR with my first two picks. Most people would call this asinine, knowing what I'll end up with at Running Back. I personally feel that the middle ground Running Backs I could be looking at in round 3 (34th overall) have huge potential and upside this year. Guys like Willie Parker, Chester Taylor, Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes, Tatum Bell, Reggie Bush, Jamal Lewis, all have a nice appeal to me (When grouped with a stud WR tandem). People will question these guys being left to me, but this league drafts a wide array of positions, and isn't all that "conventional". I also feel that myself selecting WR-WR, as well as my knowledge that owne #11 is planning on taking at least one WR, as well as owner #12 doing the same, leads me to believe I can start a run on WR, dropping even more RBs to me.

 

Situations: So, just for arguments sake, I'm gonna put this out there. RB-WR-RB-WR is an option, but I'm really looking strongly at WR-WR-RB-RB. If I do that:

 

WR: Steve Smith (my #1)

WR: Marvin Harrison (my#2)

RB: Willie Parker

RB: Jamal Lewis

 

So, an amazing WR corps that puts me head and shoulders above the rest of the league, and a running back duo that should touch the ball plenty, and still get me nice points to accompany my stud WRs. The other option, if I play it "safe" and take RB-RB-WR-WR.

 

RB: Rudi Johnson

RB: Ronnie Brown

WR: Donald Driver

WR: Andre Johnson

 

Honestly, that isn't even a comparison for me, and I even slotted myself 2 great RBs. Many people will argue that I can get better WRs at that spot, but this league doesn't draft conventionally. They're all over the first 3 rounds with tons of QBs, RB, and WRs, and prob 2 TE's as well.

 

STATISTICAL EVIDENCE: I know many people call Running Backs the most important position in fantasy football, because of the scarcity of top running backs. I've always believed this to a point, but I also believe (and know from experience) that you win games based on how many points you score, regardless of where they come from. So if I can get the top 3 WRs and suffer and running back, I think it would all come out in the positive for me, hyptothetically speaking. The top 20 scorers last year in our scoring system:

 

1. RB Ladainian Tomlinson - 365

2. RB Shaun Alexander - 359

3. RB Larry Johnson - 351

4. RB Tiki Barber - 346

5. QB Carson Palmer - 344

6. WR Steve Smith - 325

7. QB Tom Brady - 322

8. QB Peyton Manning - 312

9. RB Edgerrin James - 304

10. QB Eli Manning - 296

11. WR Larry Fitzgerald - 291

12. QB Drew Bledsoe - 290

13. WR Torry Holt - 284

14. QB Drew Brees - 284

15. RB Lamont Jordan - 282

16. WR Santana Moss - 282

17. WR Chad Johnson - 279

18. QB Matt Hasselbeck - 278

19. QB Jake Delhomme - 278

20. WR Anquan Boldin - 274

 

So, in that top 20 we end up with 6 RBs, 6 WRs, and 8 QBs. Looking at the QB names, you can get a ton of those guys in the 6-9 rounds this year, and be totally happy with a nother possible top 20 scorer. Running Backs may be at the top, but then they vanish. At the #10 spot, I'm not getting one of those top guys, so then what? Look at the crowd of top WRs. Guys projected to have good years that did just that. I love the consistency and dependancy that those guys give you, and would love to make them my top 2 picks. More statistical evidence:

 

I recently compiled some information taking numbers from my league's scoring system over the last 3 years. What I was looking for, was the variance between the top scorer and each position, and the subsequent 10th and 20th scorer at that position. My findings:

 

QB - 1/10 variance: 97.6 10/20 variance: 71.3 Total: 168.6

RB - 1/10 variance: 149 10/20 variance: 36.6 Total: 185.6

WR - 1/10 variance: 99 10/20 variance: 36.6 Total: 135.6

 

So, the way I translate these findings, with my #10 overall pick. If I could have a #1 RB, it would be 149 pts better than what I could have at #10. I can't have a #1 running back. Instead, I'll get possibly the 10th best running back. Looking at the numbers, that 10th best back is only 36.6 points better than the 20th best back. For sake of argument here, we'll say Rudi Johnson v Willie Parker.

 

However, the #1 WR I could draft at the 10 spot is actually 99 points better than the 10th best reciever I could anticipate grabbing in round 3 (at the 34th pick overall). Again, for sake of argument, Steve Smith v Darrell Jackson, or something of that nature. So, 99-26 means I'm gaining myself what could be an average of 73 pts, and possibly even take that times two when figuring that I'm going WR-WR. 146 pts? Thats like an entire extra win in our league.

 

 

CONCLUSION: I know this was incredibly long. I love those of you who stuck with it, read it, and appreciate the fact that I've researched and thought about this in depth. Now what I want, is for somebody to PROVE ME WRONG. I honestly know in my head, that the smart, "safe", conventional decision is to take the 2 best Running Backs available to me. Frankly, my statistical analysis just does not back this up. Furthermore, the idea of having a team full of "okay" players just doesn't sit well with me, when I know I can end up with two stud WRs, something no other team should be able to claim. I've read alot of thoughts on 1st round WRs on this forum, and pretty much everyone shoots it down immediately. Please, tell me WHY I shouldn't do this, and if anyone wants to talk further, PM me for messenger info. Thanks for the read.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

option 2 is better... the thing is, smith and harrison wont necesarrily give u a head and shoulders advantage at WR. there are just so many good WR's to be had later... driver, wayne, chambers, ward, roy williams, housh, jackson etc that someone will also have 2 good wr's...

[skittles 0]

First off, thanks for your reply. I see your point, but I am less concerned with what others may have, as opposed to what I will have for certain. Of all of those receivers you listed, I anticipate being able to get my hands on maybe 3 of them when i finally get to take a WR at the 34th pick. So that leaves me with mediocrity at both WR AND RB? I just don't love the sound of that.

[enoto 0]

Good thoughts, but if you want to be "unconventional" I would steer a LITTLE that way and go WR,RB. You get top WR and quality RB and still get a quality teir 2 WR in the 3rd and your more well rounded.

[mggoilers 0]

If you want to go WR-WR

 

i suggest Chad Johnson/Torry Holt/Larry Fitzgerald/Marvin Harrison

 

All 4 are dependable, but I'd be tempted to go WR/RB or RB/WR...I would steer clear of Steve Smith.

 

But I like bigger WR's and guys that have had more than 1 year...Good luck.

 

Try it in a yahoo- FREE league first, and see what type of team you end up with...With this being an ongoing league, you might take some heat or you might start a premature WR run...then in the third you might be staring at Antonio Gates...I DARE YOU!!!!

[FBH ** 0]

I am considering the same approach this year, as i don't expect much in terms of a RB to be available when I draft out of the 10 hole in a 10 team league. But I have to luxury of keeping Jordan, so it is not as big a gamble for me. As I look at who could fall to me, I am looking at Westy, DD, JJ, or KJ. I see all of these backs as a gamble, not a sure thing. I would much rather gamble in round 3 or 4 than in rounds 1 and 2. Just my .02.