Doug Orth's Big Boards - Version 1.0

[Mike FF Today 607]

Big day today! We're kicking off Doug's Big Boards with a Top 150 for PPR Leagues. We started these a little earlier this year which should give you guys a little more time to consume.

 

Doug will do BB's for Standard Non-PPR leagues, Half-Point PPR and a couple for high stakes contests.

 

PPR Top 150 - Version 1.0 - 8/8/17

Non-PPR Top 150 Version 1.0 - 8/13/17

Half-Point PPR Top 150 Version 1.0 - 8/15/17

The Fantasy Championship Top 150 - Version 1.0 - 8/17/17

FFPC Top 150 - Version 1.0 - 8/21/17

[Matt Mueller 146]

Great stuff. After drafting Dez in the 2nd round to pair with Green I had a feeling I might have to scroll down a bit for him.

 

I think I agree with the general sentiment. Tough matchups and corners need to be accounted for.

 

 

If I could provide a counter point on Dez potentially.

 

Dallas last year had the 3rd highest point differential in the league going 13-3 scoring 421 points and giving up 305.

 

In general they seemed to have a game script to potentially hold more leads than have to catchup.

 

 

In 2017 could a more difficult schedule, force Dallas to play more offensive thus potentially reducing the risk against playing better corners?

[Matt Mueller 146]

Looking back to Dez in 2016 the Giants games look bad.

 

A December 7-10 game when Dez only had 1 catch on 9 targets and the opening game of the season 5 targets 1 catch.

 

 

Washington and Josh Norman, at least the results, weren't too bad though.

 

9/18 12 targets 7 catches 102 yards in Dak's first ever win.

11/24 7 targets 5 catches 72 yards

[The Football Guru 211]

Looking back to Dez in 2016 the Giants games look bad.

 

A December 7-10 game when Dez only had 1 catch on 9 targets and the opening game of the season 5 targets 1 catch.

 

 

Washington and Josh Norman, at least the results, weren't too bad though.

 

9/18 12 targets 7 catches 102 yards in Dak's first ever win.

11/24 7 targets 5 catches 72 yards

 

For the most part, Jenkins shadowed Bryant in both DAL-NYG games.

 

If memory serves, Norman only kinda shadowed Bryant in the second half of the first DAL-WAS meeting after Dez went off on Breeland in the first half. In the second game, Bryant went for 3-32-0 in Norman's coverage on five targets.

[The Football Guru 211]

If I could provide a counter point on Dez potentially.

 

Dallas last year had the 3rd highest point differential in the league going 13-3 scoring 421 points and giving up 305.

 

In general they seemed to have a game script to potentially hold more leads than have to catchup.

 

 

In 2017 could a more difficult schedule, force Dallas to play more offensive thus potentially reducing the risk against playing better corners?

 

I think that works to a point, but I've always tried to view hurry-up/comeback/two-minute drill situations as a bonus. Those situations also favor slot receivers like Beasley because the defense is willing to give up short routes (as opposed to downfield catches). I suppose Bryant benefits if he suddenly becomes more of an intermediate receiver, but that's a big if. Plus, Dez gets a lot of his fantasy value from touchdowns, and those situations don't tend to lead to a high percentage of touchdowns.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Good stuff already. Has got me researching and thinking some and I think that's the point of these along with using them as a draft resource.

 

 

 

 

Couple of notes on Dez

 

He had a career best 15.9 YPC last year ( Really? I didn't know this.)

 

This off a career average of 14.3 and having never hit above 15.0 before

 

 

 

In 2014 he caught 16 tds on 88 balls. A career best rate of every 5.5 catches

 

In 2016 he caught 8 tds on 50 balls. Every 6.25 catches

 

2013 13 tds on 93 catches. Every 7.15 catches

2012 12 tds on 92 catches. Every 7.66 catches

 

 

There were probably some inefficency stats as it took him 97 targets to get those 50 catches.

[Marshall 98]

Hooray! Always a highlight of preseason for me.

 

Well, except for the PPR part, that is. I'll be waiting for the Standard version, myself.

[robb 71]

Doug....................................what can I say man. EXCELLENT job again!!

 

I used this last year, sometimes to break "ties" between 2 or 3 players I was considering in my drafts.

 

I would think this doesn't get updated soon or during the year, correct?

 

Thanks for the July Draft and your insights!

[Matt Mueller 146]

Followed up my AJ Green, Dez start with a late 3.9 DeMarco Murray!

 

Big Boards hooooooooooo

[The Football Guru 211]

Followed up my AJ Green, Dez start with a late 3.9 DeMarco Murray!

 

Big Boards hooooooooooo

 

Awesome. But how is Murray going 3.9? Does no one know Mularkey's history with his lead backs? Or is everyone that certain Murray is going to get hurt? Even Murray with 250 carries and 50 catches is worth a second-round pick behind his o-line.

[The Football Guru 211]

Doug....................................what can I say man. EXCELLENT job again!!

 

I used this last year, sometimes to break "ties" between 2 or 3 players I was considering in my drafts.

 

I would think this doesn't get updated soon or during the year, correct?

 

Thanks for the July Draft and your insights!

 

Thanks robb. I will do another PPR Big Board (200 players) in two weeks and then update it on my computer on almost a daily basis until I finish my last draft (hours before kickoff). I occasionally e-mail my most up-to-date version to readers if they want my most current board.

[Matt Mueller 146]

 

Awesome. But how is Murray going 3.9? Does no one know Mularkey's history with his lead backs? Or is everyone that certain Murray is going to get hurt? Even Murray with 250 carries and 50 catches is worth a second-round pick behind his o-line.

 

Strange draft only HAVE TO start 1 RB. It's our IBL league that a bunch of FFtoday folks play in to compete against the other fantasy boards.

 

He didn't slip past the 2/3 turn in any of the other drafts so far. (8 in total...yeah don't ask)

[The Football Guru 211]

 

Strange draft only HAVE TO start 1 RB. It's our IBL league that a bunch of FFtoday folks play in to compete against the other fantasy boards.

 

He didn't slip past the 2/3 turn in any of the other drafts so far. (8 in total...yeah don't ask)

 

Gotcha. That makes sense now.

 

On a related (and probably selfish) note, you have no idea how often I think about a universal format in which everybody played by the same scoring rules and had similar lineup requirements. It would make things so much easier to analyze and we could actually find out who is the best of the best. I think one of many reasons why there are so many fantasy sites in business is because there are so many different scoring systems, because I assure you not everybody out there is giving great advice.

[BufordT 371]

Awesome. But how is Murray going 3.9? Does no one know Mularkey's history with his lead backs? Or is everyone that certain Murray is going to get hurt? Even Murray with 250 carries and 50 catches is worth a second-round pick behind his o-line.

Problem is, Derrick Henry is probably the best backup in the league and if DMarc goes down I believe he's a legit RB1. He had 123 touches (13 receptions) last year as a rookie and I expect that number to go up this year. I'm expecting at least 25 receptions and 200ish touches this year....assuming everyone stays healthy. Let's not forget DH is no slouch when it comes to pass protection....probably still not as good as DMarc but you're not losing much, if anything, with DH in passing situations. DMarc is 29 years old this year with a fairly heavy workload last year, a year in which he barely averaged 4ypc and only had 4 total TD's over the last 8 games of the year....and all this, if memory serves, with the Titans battling for a post season berth.

 

Mularkey might like a work horse but I admittedly don't know if he's ever had the luxury of having two RB's of this caliber.

 

I just wouldn't trust DMarc as RB1 this year. A mid RB2 is a bit more like it.

[seafoam1 1,878]

Fournette is really high, no? Im not taking him this year where most leagues have been taking him.

[DrG 94]

Doug, thank you as always! I don't think I've ever seen as many rookies in your top 50 as this year. I also see a big tilt back to rbs vs WRs. Interesting to see Maclin rated over Jarvis Landry.

[The Football Guru 211]

Problem is, Derrick Henry is probably the best backup in the league and if DMarc goes down I believe he's a legit RB1. He had 123 touches (13 receptions) last year as a rookie and I expect that number to go up this year. I'm expecting at least 25 receptions and 200ish touches this year....assuming everyone stays healthy. Let's not forget DH is no slouch when it comes to pass protection....probably still not as good as DMarc but you're not losing much, if anything, with DH in passing situations. DMarc is 29 years old this year with a fairly heavy workload last year, a year in which he barely averaged 4ypc and only had 4 total TD's over the last 8 games of the year....and all this, if memory serves, with the Titans battling for a post season berth.

 

Mularkey might like a work horse but I admittedly don't know if he's ever had the luxury of having two RB's of this caliber.

 

I just wouldn't trust DMarc as RB1 this year. A mid RB2 is a bit more like it.

 

I get it, although I'm not sure I trust many backs beyond DJ, Bell, Zeke and Freeman to be RB1s this year. And I get the Henry love; I was driving that train last summer. Then again, it's going to be hard for Henry to be more impressive than he was last preseason. To your point about Mularkey not possibly ever having a backup like Henry, I thought I would do some research:

 

In Mularkey's years as an OC/HC, here are the best "backups" he had:

 

2002: A 30-year-old Jerome Bettis (Amos Zereoue led the team in rushing that year). To be honest, that was more of a true committee. Also, Bettis did miss three games that year due to injury, so we could throw this one out as inconclusive.

2004: Travis Henry took a back seat to Willis McGahee

2011: A young Jacquizz Rodgers backing up an aging Michael Turner

2012: Rashad Jennings/MJD - MJD only played six games due to injury

 

I think the only comparable situation would have been 2004, as I remember Henry as a stud. (He was coming off consecutive 300-carry seasons prior to settling for 94 in 2004 after McGahee took the job.)

 

Here are the facts about Mularkey's history with running backs: Only five times in 13 years as the OC/HC has Mularkey not had one running back receive 55 percent of the carries. In three of those instances (Antonio Andrews, Zereoue and Jennings), I think we can argue the lead back was fairly average. In the other two seasons, Turner and Bettis were easily on pace for 55 percent of the work before going down to injury. Last year, Murray handled 62 percent and that was even after the coaching staff acknowledged his toe injury was lingering.

 

I think the best we can hope for is Tennessee playing with enough leads so Henry can push 150 carries and 25-plus receptions. I think Henry will get at least half of the goal-line work as well. However, I'd be surprised if Murray dips below 250 carries and 50 catches (barring injury, of course).

[The Football Guru 211]

Doug, thank you as always! I don't think I've ever seen as many rookies in your top 50 as this year. I also see a big tilt back to rbs vs WRs. Interesting to see Maclin rated over Jarvis Landry.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I think this RB rookie class will do for that position what 2014 did for WRs. Just off the top of my head, I can see Fournette, Mixon, McCaffrey, Cook, Hunt and Jamaal Williams emerging as the their team's No. 1 backs by the end of the season. Perine could too, but I don't think Jay Gruden will let it happen, at least not this year.

[sirensong 111]

 

Couple of notes on Dez

...

 

 

There were probably some inefficency stats as it took him 97 targets to get those 50 catches.

 

don't want to turn this into a dez/DAL thread, but a lot of that inefficiency can be attributed to the scheme and dak. it took a while for linehan to find the right formula to recalibrate the offense. in garrett's downfield system, DAL outside WRs run more 9-routes than anyone else in the league, but dak wasn't particularly effective throwing that way. he improved substantially when the offense was re-tooled to include more in-breaking routes (digs, drags, etc.). but a lot of those looks went to beasley rather than dez.

 

in the offseason, dak and dez made a concerted effort to get on the same page, and they're showing substantial improvement in camp both underneath and in the downfield game. so it's reasonable to expect considerable improvement both in efficiency and in overall output.

[BufordT 371]

 

I get it, although I'm not sure I trust many backs beyond DJ, Bell, Zeke and Freeman to be RB1s this year. And I get the Henry love; I was driving that train last summer. Then again, it's going to be hard for Henry to be more impressive than he was last preseason. To your point about Mularkey not possibly ever having a backup like Henry, I thought I would do some research:

 

In Mularkey's years as an OC/HC, here are the best "backups" he had:

 

2002: A 30-year-old Jerome Bettis (Amos Zereoue led the team in rushing that year). To be honest, that was more of a true committee. Also, Bettis did miss three games that year due to injury, so we could throw this one out as inconclusive.

2004: Travis Henry took a back seat to Willis McGahee

2011: A young Jacquizz Rodgers backing up an aging Michael Turner

2012: Rashad Jennings/MJD - MJD only played six games due to injury

 

I think the only comparable situation would have been 2004, as I remember Henry as a stud. (He was coming off consecutive 300-carry seasons prior to settling for 94 in 2004 after McGahee took the job.)

 

Here are the facts about Mularkey's history with running backs: Only five times in 13 years as the OC/HC has Mularkey not had one running back receive 55 percent of the carries. In three of those instances (Antonio Andrews, Zereoue and Jennings), I think we can argue the lead back was fairly average. In the other two seasons, Turner and Bettis were easily on pace for 55 percent of the work before going down to injury. Last year, Murray handled 62 percent and that was even after the coaching staff acknowledged his toe injury was lingering.

 

I think the best we can hope for is Tennessee playing with enough leads so Henry can push 150 carries and 25-plus receptions. I think Henry will get at least half of the goal-line work as well. However, I'd be surprised if Murray dips below 250 carries and 50 catches (barring injury, of course).

Thanks for the level headed response and fwiw I've been using your Big Boards for years now as a reference. I don't think I ever thanked you for that....so thanks, much appreciated.

[Quickolas1 80]

I think the only comparable situation would have been 2004, as I remember Henry as a stud. (He was coming off consecutive 300-carry seasons prior to settling for 94 in 2004 after McGahee took the job.)

 

Henry was the bellcow the first 5 or 6 games. But he was having a terrible year, 3.5 ypc. Not a stud. He got hurt and missed the next 6 games.

McGahee (1st round investment, redshirted off major injury, Henry had off-the-field issues anyway) inherited the job but he wasn't good either, only 4.0 ypc.

Henry wasn't happy upon his return where he got very few carries to wrap up the season. He demanded a trade and was shipped away to the Titans in the off-season.

Probably had a few more kids that off-season too.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Doug can you make us feel warm and fuzzy about Lamar Miller?

 

I've got a dynasty copy. What can I expect?

 

 

I think Watson can help the team get better at some point this year and could benefit Miller but I still can't buy in if I need to spend an early pick. He was super inefficient last year and his only really good trait as an rb is being straight line fast. He's not really elusive nor a tackler breaker.

[The Football Guru 211]

Henry was the bellcow the first 5 or 6 games. But he was having a terrible year, 3.5 ypc. Not a stud. He got hurt and missed the next 6 games.

McGahee (1st round investment, redshirted off major injury, Henry had off-the-field issues anyway) inherited the job but he wasn't good either, only 4.0 ypc.

Henry wasn't happy upon his return where he got very few carries to wrap up the season. He demanded a trade and was shipped away to the Titans in the off-season.

Probably had a few more kids that off-season too.

My comment about Henry was a general one and less about what he was that season.

[American Chewy 98]

looking forward to the .5 ppr board...thanks for all your work as well. my last couple of drafts have been better because of it.

[Maulers1973 117]

Fournette is really high, no? Im not taking him this year where most leagues have been taking him.

 

I agree with you. I'm not high on Fournette at all. I think he is comparable to Chris Beanie Wells with an upright power running style. He is sure to get injured sooner rather than later. Even if he doesn't, is the Jags offensive line going to blow open big holes for him? I have my doubts.

[The Football Guru 211]

 

I agree with you. I'm not high on Fournette at all. I think he is comparable to Chris Beanie Wells with an upright power running style. He is sure to get injured sooner rather than later. Even if he doesn't, is the Jags offensive line going to blow open big holes for him? I have my doubts.

 

Fournette is very much a fluid situation for me. It appears I think he is more durable than others; last year's injury at LSU was an ankle. Beanie Wells is a solid comparison, although he almost stood straight up (or so it seemed). Fournette delivers the blow a lot more often than he absorbs it, so I think he'll be more durable. As always, we'll see.

[DrG 94]

Doug what was it about Fournette that puts him over McCaffery in ppr? Standard I can see it not as easily in ppr

[The Football Guru 211]

Doug what was it about Fournette that puts him over McCaffery in ppr? Standard I can see it not as easily in ppr

 

Consistent weekly workload and the likelihood Fournette will get more work at or near the goal line. Were it not for the projected volume or role, I think you could put Fournette in the late third/early fourth if you wanted.

[The Football Guru 211]

Doug can you make us feel warm and fuzzy about Lamar Miller?

 

I've got a dynasty copy. What can I expect?

 

 

I think Watson can help the team get better at some point this year and could benefit Miller but I still can't buy in if I need to spend an early pick. He was super inefficient last year and his only really good trait as an rb is being straight line fast. He's not really elusive nor a tackler breaker.

 

Matt, I don't buy into Foreman being a threat at all, but I've learned to give any threat to a starting RB's job some measure of respect, so that's a small part of the equation. I traded for Miller last year in dynasty and believe he is still a RB1, but LT Duane Brown needs to get his butt into camp, C Nick Martin needs to be what he is supposed to become and RG Jeff Allen needs to bounce back. (They desperately need one of their RT options to surprise too. That's the one spot that concens me the most.) Miller also can't play hurt from the end of September on either. I read something late last season that Miller put on some weight last summer in order to prepare himself for the workhorse role and once I gave it some thought, I could kind of see it.

 

I've seen the metrics that he was one of the worst in the league after contact and the like, but not all "contact" is created equal either. The offensive line wasn't particularly good at blocking the run last year, Brock gave the defense no reason to get out of the box and Miller was probably playing at about 80 percent for the bulk of the season. While others see Miller as disappointing last year, his year-end numbers were actually pretty good considering he wasn't getting any help. The thing I was most disappointed in was his lack of activity in the passing game. How did O'Brien go from using Foster so often as a receiver to rarely using Miller in the same way?

 

Long and short of it, I think he's going to be a solid RB2 at worst because, quite frankly, I don't know how it could get much worse for him this year. Whether or not he becomes the RB1 I think he is (or can be) depends on whether or not injuries (or weight gain) were the cause for his lack of explosion and the QB play b/c I think the line will play better.

[The Football Guru 211]

Glad I decided to wait until Saturday to release my non-PPR board. Haven't been this surprised by a NFL trade (Sammy Watkins) in a while.

[the spanker 28]

Doug, help me out here. You have Cooks ranked 19 overall on your board?

 

What do you see that justifies he's worthy of a 2nd round pick when he was so inconsistent with Brees and going to an offense that's loaded with even more weapons around him?

[The Football Guru 211]

Doug, help me out here. You have Cooks ranked 19 overall on your board?

 

What do you see that justifies he's worthy of a 2nd round pick when he was so inconsistent with Brees and going to an offense that's loaded with even more weapons around him?

 

I've discussed him throughout the summer. The short explanation is I believe he'll steal some snaps from Edelman in the slot and also be the deep threat the Pats have been looking for since Randy Moss, although he is far from just a one-trick pony. Factor in the Gronk injury likelihood and I'm thinking 70 catches and 10-112 touchdowns. It's an outside-the-box projection and I could easily be wrong. I also think the Pats are going to pass a lot more than in recent years (more weapons), kind of like they did back in 2007.

[DrG 94]

Brady has more weapons around him than I can remember. 07 was my first year playing ff and Brady put my otherwise mediocre team in the playoffs

[Mike FF Today 607]

Just posted Version 1.0 for standard scoring leagues and post Zeke suspension, post Watkins, Matthews trade news.

[bjsteel 34]

Zeke has to be lower than 6th now, wouldn't ya think? And I'm liking Dez a lot more, should get more looks early on with Zeke out.

[sirensong 111]

Zeke has to be lower than 6th now, wouldn't ya think? And I'm liking Dez a lot more, should get more looks early on with Zeke out.

 

when you think about how opposing defenses will approach the cowboys now, odds are that the biggest beneficiary will be beasley, not dez. dez was always going to get his looks, but a lot of them were going to come from single coverage and an 8-man box. now dez will be the focal point of opposing schemes: "take dez out of the game and make the other guys beat us." he's not going to see single coverage until week 8.

 

beasley gets the benefit of that, and he has been pretty much uncoverable in camp. dak has been improving his downfield game, but his bread and butter is still consistently moving the chains off the short crossing stuff. beas could be looking at a 90 reception season.

[The Football Guru 211]

 

when you think about how opposing defenses will approach the cowboys now, odds are that the biggest beneficiary will be beasley, not dez. dez was always going to get his looks, but a lot of them were going to come from single coverage and an 8-man box. now dez will be the focal point of opposing schemes: "take dez out of the game and make the other guys beat us." he's not going to see single coverage until week 8.

 

beasley gets the benefit of that, and he has been pretty much uncoverable in camp. dak has been improving his downfield game, but his bread and butter is still consistently moving the chains off the short crossing stuff. beas could be looking at a 90 reception season.

 

Completely agree Beasley should benefit, as he was already a bit of an extension of the running game. If Ryan Switzer can get/stay healthy, I would expect he could sniff fantasy relevancy during Zeke's absence as well.

[The Football Guru 211]

Zeke has to be lower than 6th now, wouldn't ya think? And I'm liking Dez a lot more, should get more looks early on with Zeke out.

 

He's 28th on the standard Big Board and will rank similarly on the 0.5 BB that will come out Tuesday.

[Zangief80 1]

This is a great chart. It seems that Michael Thomas has 4 red squares, which is by far the most out of top 10 on that board. Is this something to read into? I am actually thinking at taking him at 10 spot in a 12th team league.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ Michael Thomas is interesting to me this year. 100% understand valuing him at the 1st-2nd turn and think he could be a very safe pick as the top dog on a top offense.

 

For real life NFL I'm very curious to see how he might fare against some top corners.

 

What percentage of this fantasy value is Brees and the situation vs Thomas's actual talent as a player.

 

 

Not doubting him for fantasy this year at all. Just curious to watch.