Best record... still miss playoffs... and got kicked out! LOL

[brotherbock 349]

 

Nah, purely anecdotal. His thesis was that "chance" can be virtually eliminated from a coin flip if you can replicate the flip action. He believed that he could create an environment that would yield 90-95% accuracy. It was pretty cool. He did say have a section of his project devoted solely to the human element. He had a group of calculations which yielded a margin of error in a person flipping the coin to where you can increase your odds of picking right result. Of course, as you said... as did he in the paper, it's theory because it's virtually impossible to get a person to flip a coin that consistently even within a margin of error.

 

 

 

In relation to fantasy sports and poker, I've heard a large number of fantasy sports "experts" go on and on about the similarities in the "skill" factor of poker and fantasy sports. They're nuts. You ask any "legit" poker player and they'll tell you that the cards in your hand have very little to do with the outcome of hand. They don't play the cards, they play their opponents. That's why an analogy doesn't work. If you equate yourself to a good poker player (from a success perspective), then their is no analogy as they're completely different. Fantasy sports is a game of chance, just like roulette, blackjack, or keno... but poker is a game of skill and has very little to do with luck or chance. Now, if you go down to the casino play with random people who find poker "entertaining", then yes, poker is more luck and chance. But if you play with the big boys, luck has nothing to do with the outcome.

 

Well, no, even for the biggest money poker guys, luck will always be a factor. Even the best Hold 'em players can come down to the final card turning up either in their favor or not.

 

But just to be clear, I'm not talking about the kind of skill involved, or even the amount of skill involved. I could just as easily talk about overtime in the NFL--even with the new rules, a lot can come down to whether you win the coin toss or not. And that's luck. But just because there is some luck involved, it would be ridiculous to say that, after the end of regulation, who wins is 'entirely luck'. Similarly then, Paws and people like him enjoy claiming that FF is 'entirely luck' because there's this one aspect that can't be controlled--the play on the field. Now granted, that's a big aspect. But it's not the only part of the game. Thus, FF is not entirely luck

 

I've said this here just last week: if it was purely luck, this game we play, then pulling names out of a hat at your draft, and each week for your lineup, would be just as successful over the years as doing research.

 

 

Here's the big thing--people are confusing luck with probability.

 

I draft Bell, and you draft Lacy. I have a much higher probability of winning our one-player head to head matchup. Let's say for example that we did incredibly extensive analysis and determined that I had a 75% chance of winning that matchup on a given week. So then we play one matchup...and you win! "Ohmygod it must be ALL LUCK!" No. It's probability. If I had a 75% chance of winning, that means that you had a 25% chance of winning. What that means is, if we played 100 times, you would win about 25 of those times. This time was one of those times. Things happen that the odds are against all the time--in fact, probability means that things must happen that the odds are against all the time. If we play that same matchup 100 times, you will win about 25 of them (if our probability analysis was right). And I will win about 75 of them.

 

Which specific matchups we each will win is another matter to predict. Need different research for that. But that's what FF is--making it more probable that your team will win. But to act like it's "not in our control" just because it's never 100% guaranteed is absurd. Not that you were saying exactly that. But to say FF is 'entirely luck' is demonstrably false.

[DaBeerz 88]

 

I get what you're saying on the last part, but I did specifically say that it would be something to look at for next season. I made sure that I did not include any notion that I was getting screwed or that I was mad. Just that it would seem odd that you give out an award to team who has the best record, but yet, they didn't make the playoffs. Simply said that next year they should consider using one standard way to break ties, not use one way for awards and a separate for seeding's. To note, don't know if you read all of my posts, but they did take my suggestion and already passed a rule for next season that all ties are broken first by points then head to head.

 

I am the commissioner of my 20-year league - which started out as a re-draft and converted to a keeper league. I encourage people to email me, and the league, suggestions for possible rule changes all throughout the calendar year. Send them when you think of them. Some ideas are good, some were bad. I think it's a great way to stay current with the times as well as gets all of the owners interactive in the league. Keeping people interested all year is a good thing, not a bad thing. Sometimes when you think of an idea in-season, and you keep it to yourself, you can forget it when the off-season rolls around and may not remember it until it's too late. Get it out there and talk about it. It can't hurt.

 

Most well-run leagues will allow any league member to propose a rule change, and then they are all voted on prior to the draft for the following year. Good or bad, anyone has the right to propose a rule change. Generally, the bad ones are voted down anyway. They should never kick an owner for making a suggestion, it sounds like you got into a bit of a clique league that just wanted your money and was never going to let you win no matter how well you did.

 

Just let everyone know what a shitshow that league is so that new members don't get scammed the same way!

[brotherbock 349]

 

Most well-run leagues will allow any league member to propose a rule change, and then they are all voted on prior to the draft for the following year. Good or bad, anyone has the right to propose a rule change. Generally, the bad ones are voted down anyway. They should never kick an owner for making a suggestion, it sounds like you got into a bit of a clique league that just wanted your money and was never going to let you win no matter how well you did.

 

Just let everyone know what a shitshow that league is so that new members don't get scammed the same way!

 

I kick out anyone who questions me at all. Or anyone who beats me. Or anyone who drafts a player I wanted. Or anyone who has a team name I think is funnier than mine.

 

I never knew Yahoo would let you run a 1-teamer.

[DaBeerz 88]

 

I kick out anyone who questions me at all. Or anyone who beats me. Or anyone who drafts a player I wanted. Or anyone who has a team name I think is funnier than mine.

 

I never knew Yahoo would let you run a 1-teamer.

 

Always good to rule with an iron fist!

[brotherbock 349]

 

Always good to rule with an iron fist!

 

My other trick, er, strategy is to just swap teams with the best team in the league each week. I just make myself manager of that team, and make them manager of my team. That's the best strategy if you're commish, particularly in week 16.

[phillygrrl08 139]

For an attorney, commish doesn't sound terribly bright

[weepaws 2,452]

Hey, I've got a lineup question. I've got a big coin toss tournament coming up. Should I pick heads or tails? I've been agonizing about the decision, figured I'd look for some advice. And I've got the choice of flipping a quarter, or a half dollar. Which one should I use?

Two headed coin, pick heads, winner every toss.

[brotherbock 349]

Two headed coin, pick heads, winner every toss.

 

Not true. There's a chance that the two-headed coin will land on its edge (I've seen it happen). If there's a chance it might happen, then it's all just entirely pure luck!

[weepaws 2,452]

Not true. There's a chance that the two-headed coin will land on its edge (I've seen it happen). If there's a chance it might happen, then it's all just entirely pure luck!

Nope no chance that will happen if its flipped over on the floor with no obstruction.

 

I've never seen it happen.

 

It's a do over. And if we go into the middle of a street and flip that coin there is no way that happens, not even once.

 

I'm sorry that you don't agree that ff is all about luck, but it is what it is.

 

Thanks for the reply.

 

Titus 3:9.

 

Good luck this weekend, opps I should say, good skill.

[nobody 2,031]

 

No, it had a small landing surface just in front of it. If I remember correctly, I think it was 6" x 6".

Then I don't think they ran the test 1 million times.

 

It probably would take 3 seconds to reset everything 5 seconds to record the result. 8 seconds per flip implies 8 million seconds... divide that by 3600 seconds in an hour gives you 2222 hours. Even if you sat there flipping coins for 12 hours a day it would take 6 months.

[huskyhater75 242]

HAHA, I'm in a league where back in 2013 I broke (25 year league we've had) I set 5 all time records while becoming the only undefeated team ever. It PO'ed them so much that when you look on our league website, NONE of ANY records are recorded for 2013. What I did was (100$ entry, traveling trophy) when it was time for me to have my name engraved (winner pays for their own engraving) on our trophy, I engraved all of the records I had set-and not one word was spoken...................no balls, but somebody in our league doesn't like me......HAHAHA is what I say, it's all on the trophy!

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

Then I don't think they ran the test 1 million times.

 

It probably would take 3 seconds to reset everything 5 seconds to record the result. 8 seconds per flip implies 8 million seconds... divide that by 3600 seconds in an hour gives you 2222 hours. Even if you sat there flipping coins for 12 hours a day it would take 6 months.

 

They didn't run the test 1 million times before giving him the award and scholarship, only about 2,000 I think he said. The committee was curious as to how accurate it was. He did that project as a part of the grad school entry paper. They told him about the 1M times after he got his PhD a few years later.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

HAHA, I'm in a league where back in 2013 I broke (25 year league we've had) I set 5 all time records while becoming the only undefeated team ever. It PO'ed them so much that when you look on our league website, NONE of ANY records are recorded for 2013. What I did was (100$ entry, traveling trophy) when it was time for me to have my name engraved (winner pays for their own engraving) on our trophy, I engraved all of the records I had set-and not one word was spoken...................no balls, but somebody in our league doesn't like me......HAHAHA is what I say, it's all on the trophy!

 

Nice!!!

[seafoam1 1,878]

 

I'm sorry that you don't agree that ff is all about luck, but it is what it is.

 

 

I saw in another thread you suggested playing Evans over Josh Gordon? Why?

[brotherbock 349]

Nope no chance that will happen if its flipped over on the floor with no obstruction.

 

I've never seen it happen.

 

It's a do over. And if we go into the middle of a street and flip that coin there is no way that happens, not even once.

 

 

So I didn't actually see it happen? Okay, thanks. I'll go in for a CT scan. Clearly if you think it could never happen, then I could never have actually seen it happen, and I must have a massive delusion or something. Thanks Dr. Paws

[weepaws 2,452]

I clearly don't think if I was too flip a two headed coin in the middle of the street would it ever land on its edge.

 

I don't think it would ever happen.

 

Your welcome.

 

Ps smile.

[jaxjag 43]

 

Oh, I'm sure, it can. But, when working properly, it worked every time. I never saw it fail. He won some kind of award and scholarship for it. They said they ran it 1 million times and it predicted the result accurately every time.

 

The only thing that I know has been run one million times is Frank Gore.

 

The machine is a gross exaggeration.

[brotherbock 349]

I clearly don't think if I was too flip a two headed coin in the middle of the street would it ever land on its edge.

 

I don't think it would ever happen.

 

Your welcome.

 

Ps smile.

 

Glad you're so confident. Confidence can be a nice, encouraging warm blanket.

[weepaws 2,452]

Glad you're so confident. Confidence can be a nice, encouraging warm blanket.

No self confidence comes from being too prideful, when someone sees them self as a diffrence maker

 

I'm saved through the blood of Jesus, and that's what I'm confidence in.

 

I'm a ignorant mmm retarded person as I recall being called,and that's ok.

 

Because I need and indeed have a savior.

 

How about you?

 

Death and Salvation isn't a two headed coin landing on its edge.

 

Thank about it.

 

Praying for you.

[brotherbock 349]

No self confidence comes from being too prideful, when someone sees them self as a diffrence maker

 

I'm saved through the blood of Jesus, and that's what I'm confidence in.

 

I'm a ignorant mmm retarded person as I recall being called,and that's ok.

 

Because I need and indeed have a savior.

 

How about you?

 

Death and Salvation isn't a two headed coin landing on its edge.

 

Thank about it.

 

Praying for you.

 

I have never called you ignorant or retarded. And I approve of those times when you try to let go of your overconfidence, as you say.

 

But in all my decades of studying scripture, I have never found anything that would tell me, from faith alone, to be confident about how a coin toss will or will not land Your confidence that something I have seen with my own eyes would never happen is in fact hubris, not confidence. That's okay, we all have hubris from time to time. But that's what it is.

 

We should be as harmless as doves and as shrewd as snakes--shrewdness involves critical thinking, which also rarely involves blind confidence

 

Good luck today

[weepaws 2,452]

Thank you for the reply.

 

And good luck too you also.