No, you forgot the "blow up in your face part".
you need to assess your risk/reward. are looking for the consistent 10 pt performance, or the potential home run? you have to weigh your options and choose. there is always probability involved, and at the end of the day any of it could blow up. you could be starting alfred morris on a monday night where breida is not supposed to play much and alf on is in for 1 play. you can take a risk on albert wilson vs a very good chi defense and he can get you 30+ pts.
there is a standard deviation, and there will always be outliers.