Article - Bust Rates for top RBs and WRs

[Mike FF Today 607]

Our Bust Rate article has been updated to include the 2015 data taking a look at pre-season RB1s and WR1 over the last five years.

 

It was certainly a rough go for the top RBs last year, but the two positions are very close in their bust rate over the last five years.

 

The pre-season WR1s are living up to their WR1 expectations about 53% of the time, RB1s about 49%.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Good article, it should show people that their precious wrs can be just as volatile as rbs and nothing is set in stone.

[nobody 2,037]

So, to me, the point of this exercise is to understand how many and ultimately who are going to underperform and why. To do that, you really should ignore injuries because they're random. Instead of just taking total points at the end of the year, I'd rank them on per game averages removing players who played less then, say 6 games. Afterall, if you had leveon bell last year and you also picked up deangelo, you would've been fine, but this study counts bell as a bust even though people obviously wouldn't have been starting him wondering why he kept putting up 0's on injured reserve.

 

Better yet, eliminate players injured for more than 9 weeks, and count the percentage of weeks the remaining players produced in the top 12 and top 24, so you automatically filter out guys that might have finished high on the per game average ranks due to one of two crazy games, and then had 5 straight games doing nothing since that's a great way to have a crappy season too.