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Lamar Miller: Ranked #2 RB on FFToday cheatsheet?

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It's a somewhat risky ranking given that Miller has never handled a "workhorse" workload and there's some doubt if Houston is willing to give it to him or if he can take it on for an entire season.

 

But, I think you'd be hard pressed to find a young running back in his prime in a better situation. He was underutilized in Miami and I'm willing to bet he's going to be given the chance to reach 20 touches a game (if not more) in Houston, and keep his high efficiency numbers. He averaged 15 touches per game last season, 15.8 touches per game in 2014... if he keeps up the efficiency he's displayed the last two years (.76 FPts/touch) and gets an average of 20 touches per game, he'll score 244.5 FPts (standard) scoring. That would've ranked 2nd among RBs last year, 5th in among RBs in 2014. If you think he can handle a couple more carries per game and the TD gods smile on him a bit, then his ceiling is actually higher, meaning he's got a chance to be the top fantasy RB in 2016.

 

For comparison, Arian Foster touches per game...

 

21.2 (2015) (.67 FPts/touch)

22.9 (2014) (.79 FPts/touch)

20.4 (2013) (.59 FPts/touch)

24.4 (2012) (.68 FPts/touch)

25.4 (2011) (.77 FPts/touch)

24.5 (2010) (.84 FPts/touch)

Edited by Mike FF Today
Showing Foster data

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Three down back who is finally getting the chance to carry the load. I am assuming they are seeing a foster type role in houston, this is why rank is so high.

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Wasn't Toby Gerhart ranked in the preseason top tier here one year? Rankings are tricky and risky propositions. We can take them or leave them.

 

With that said, Miller has EVERY opportunity to be a top ff back this season.....and I am buying. He gets better with more touches/game, but Miami could never figure that out.

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I have him ranked at number 12 on this date 7/17/2016.

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It's really not the craziest prediction. Who had Freeman as their top rated RB last year? Did you even have him top 12? Didn't think so. Talented, young Miller getting all the carries on a team that has produced great fantasy RBs is far from a wild prediction. It just doesn't line up with the consensus....which is dead wrong every year without fail.

 

Risky? Absolutely, but the opportunity and upside is there and really that's all we can go off of.

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I don't think he will be top 5. Maybe top 10. He has the perfect situation but I don't know if he will be able to get the job done.

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I think the potentials there but it's aggressive for me. I won't own many copies if his ADP gets this high and I did target him heavily last year.

 

In 2015 he was 13th overall in fantasy PPG

in 2014 he was 15th overall in fantasy PPG

 

Miller is a very nice running back but I think Foster is rare and him stepping exactly into the same shoes and workload remains to be seen for me.

 

This is cherry picking because he's been on the cusp numerous times but Miller has only broken the 20 carry threshold twice in his career.

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Agree with the post above , can't compare Miller to Foster .

 

I have Miller ranked 12 that's a Rb 1 and I can't seeing myself going any higher unless there are injuries during the upcoming preseason .

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Agree with the post above , can't compare Miller to Foster .

 

I have Miller ranked 12 that's a Rb 1 and I can't seeing myself going any higher unless there are injuries during the upcoming preseason .

I'm with you on this.

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It's a somewhat risky ranking given that Miller has never handled a "workhorse" workload and there's some doubt if Houston is willing to give it to him or if he can take it on for an entire season.

 

But, I think you'd be hard pressed to find a young running back in his prime in a better situation. He was underutilized in Miami and I'm willing to bet he's going to be given the chance to reach 20 touches a game (if not more) in Houston, and keep his high efficiency numbers. He averaged 15 touches per game last season, 15.8 touches per game in 2014... if he keeps up the efficiency he's displayed the last two years (.76 FPts/touch) and gets an average of 20 touches per game, he'll score 244.5 FPts (standard) scoring. That would've ranked 2nd among RBs last year, 5th in among RBs in 2014. If you think he can handle a couple more carries per game and the TD gods smile on him a bit, then his ceiling is actually higher, meaning he's got a chance to be the top fantasy RB in 2016.

 

For comparison, Arian Foster touches per game...

 

21.2 (2015) (.67 FPts/touch)

22.9 (2014) (.79 FPts/touch)

20.4 (2013) (.59 FPts/touch)

24.4 (2012) (.68 FPts/touch)

25.4 (2011) (.77 FPts/touch)

24.5 (2010) (.84 FPts/touch)

I have yet to do my Houston projection, but I know Mike and I are in agreement about Miller's upside.

 

Has he proven himself to be a 300-touch workhorse yet? Obviously not. Has any rookie RB? (Hello Zeke Elliott.) We can speculate all day as to whether or not Miami didn't trust Miller to be the man or simply didn't know what it had. I choose to believe the latter. Miller graded out as one of the best blockers last season and finished with 47 catches, suggesting he is probably going to get the bulk of passing-down work.

 

On running downs, who is going to steal carries? Alfred Blue? Jonathan Grimes? If the Texans were concerned about Miller's durability, I don't think they would drafted Tyler Ervin over someone like Kenneth Dixon. Miller achieved his 4.6 YPC behind a line that was graded out poorly just about every year. Granted, Houston doesn't have a Cowboys-like front five, but any improvement should be considered gravy for Miller's prospects.

 

I'm not anticipating the second coming of vintage Foster, but I do expect Miller to create more big plays and do similar things as Foster in the passing game. If he manages 20 touches per game this year and plays at least 14 games, I have zero doubt he will live up to his draft spot and then some.

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Lamar Miller has finally gotten rid of the two complaints everyone ever had about him (snap count and touches per game), and now there's people that all of a sudden rank him worse than he really ever was pre-draft?

 

Keep sucking down the kool-aid of your preference then...

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My initial projections from Miller don't have him in the top 5. I may start to warm to it since the other backs on the team are crap.

 

Tanny, don't you say to stay away from RBs changing teams?

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I don't have Miller number two overall, but.......

 

I think Miller has just as good a chance to be a stud this year as anyone else. While he may not be Foster, he doesn't need to be. He's one of a small number of RB's in the league who will truly have the backfield to himself. If you have watched the Texans, they have made some pretty lousy backups look at least usable for fantasy purposes. Now they have a guy coming in with speed, agility and much better overall measurables. In Miami, I would have had Miller somewhere in the 12th to 15th range, in terms of his ranking. Now, he's with a great Head Coach, very solid defense, decent offense.... Just adding those things together should push Miller up the list by a fair amount.

 

So, as of today, I have him 7th overall in my PPR RB rankings. The upside is there. The only thing keeping him from moving up a bit more, before preseason, is the concern I have of whether Brock O. is any/much better than the scrubs Houston has been using at QB. The jury is still out on him in my book.

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"Upside" catapults him to 2? I suppose "downside" has dropped last season's breakouts, Freeman to 8, Martin to 15, L. Murray to 19? It just seems that Johnson 1 and Miller 2, is someone trying to outsmart the FF world.

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"Upside" catapults him to 2? I suppose "downside" has dropped last season's breakouts, Freeman to 8, Martin to 15, L. Murray to 19? It just seems that Johnson 1 and Freeman 2, is someone trying to outsmart the FF world.

 

L Murray should be dropped down. I had him last year and he just wasnt getting the carries it seemed. He did good for me to begin with but it seemed the coaches didnt want him to touch the ball a lot

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L Murray should be dropped down. I had him last year and he just wasnt getting the carries it seemed. He did good for me to begin with but it seemed the coaches didnt want him to touch the ball a lot

Uhhh Murray got a ton of carries. He just didn't do much with them

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Uhhh Murray got a ton of carries. He just didn't do much with them

 

I dont know. There were definitely some game I had him starting only for him to get 12 carries. I remember one game he had like 80 yards with no more than 12 carries but never got anymore. Now im not saying this was all the time but I distinctly remember one game it definitely being that way

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It's a little higher than I would rank him but it's not out of the realm of possibility. PPR is more reasonable. Houston is going to be run heavy and he will catch the ball a lot too. He should approach double digit TDs if not more.

I believe it's a little unrealistic to just plug him in where a healthy Arian Foster left off though. I don't think he's that kind of RB. The RB spot is as down as it has been in the era of fantasy football though and Miller is in a good spot to succeed.

I think about the 4-7 range is more reasonable but you never know.

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I dont know. There were definitely some game I had him starting only for him to get 12 carries. I remember one game he had like 80 yards with no more than 12 carries but never got anymore. Now im not saying this was all the time but I distinctly remember one game it definitely being that way

 

Everything I have read and heard about Murray says that all of his success last year was based on pure volume. He didn't actually do anything spectacular which is why he is positioned where he in the rankings.

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Beware of D Washington to take some work away from L Murray this season .

 

Especially in a ppr league .

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Miller was the 6th RB taken in my high stakes league at 2.03, behind Zeke, Bell, DJohns, Gurley, and AP.

 

Am I allowed to say this, or will the forum police flag my post because I am discussing a draft?

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Miller was the 6th RB taken in my high stakes league at 2.03, behind Zeke, Bell, DJohns, Gurley, and AP.

 

Am I allowed to say this, or will the forum police flag my post because I am discussing a draft?

The forum police may come after you. I still appreciate the info :thumbsup:

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I have yet to do my Houston projection, but I know Mike and I are in agreement about Miller's upside.

 

Has he proven himself to be a 300-touch workhorse yet? Obviously not. Has any rookie RB? (Hello Zeke Elliott.) We can speculate all day as to whether or not Miami didn't trust Miller to be the man or simply didn't know what it had. I choose to believe the latter. Miller graded out as one of the best blockers last season and finished with 47 catches, suggesting he is probably going to get the bulk of passing-down work.

 

On running downs, who is going to steal carries? Alfred Blue? Jonathan Grimes? If the Texans were concerned about Miller's durability, I don't think they would drafted Tyler Ervin over someone like Kenneth Dixon. Miller achieved his 4.6 YPC behind a line that was graded out poorly just about every year. Granted, Houston doesn't have a Cowboys-like front five, but any improvement should be considered gravy for Miller's prospects.

 

I'm not anticipating the second coming of vintage Foster, but I do expect Miller to create more big plays and do similar things as Foster in the passing game. If he manages 20 touches per game this year and plays at least 14 games, I have zero doubt he will live up to his draft spot and then some.

I dont think its unreasonable to project this kind of upside. and it may even be fair to use last year's production as his floor value (assuming no injury)

 

but they also have a QB (Osweiler)with less than 10 career starts under his belt and both he and Os are learning a new offense.

 

If he (osweiler) isnt as good as advertised, teams will stack the box and force Houston to throw the ball. My bet is that Osweiler isn't as good as Tannehill, so there is the possibility that there is significant downside there too.

 

I project him as slightly better than last year. Keeping in mind that he could have a big year.

 

At this point I'm not ranking him inside the top 10 and this is because for him to perform much better, Osweiler needs to show up and prove he can play.

 

That being said, I could see a ranking at between 7 and 10 using your rationale. but Number 2 seems a bit high for me to accept.

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You don't win your league with your first round pick. But you damn sure can lose it.

 

Additionally, you don't draft a player in the first round under the assumption they're going to be the top scorer in all of fantasy. Is it part of their desired upside? Yes. But their upside isn't the only thing that projects them to be fantasy relevant. They have high floors and their upside brings them to a potentially elite level. But given the volatility, injury risk, and any other variable associated, the desire is that your player can finish as a top option in THEIR position.

 

Maybe Lamar Miller doesn't finish as the top running back. Maybe he doesn't finish as the #2 running back. But I find it almost impossible to believe that he's not going to be a RB1 many, if not a majority, of the weeks this season and overall.

 

I draft for upside in the middle-late rounds. I want the guys at the top of the draft to have the highest floors. Miller has a considerably high floor.

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I dont disagree. reasonably high floor.

 

but not to a point where I would rank him as #2 overall.

 

I think I currently have him ranked at #11 on my list (just outside of my top 10)

 

This makes him a low end RB1 in most formats or a high end RB2 in others.

 

If the ranking was at 7 or 8, I probably wouldnt have even bothered with the post as it is at least in the ballpark.

 

I just cant see sufficient justification to rank him #2. for me, part of this is because I just dont believe Osweiler is that great a QB.

 

If he's running in Dallas with a healthy Romo as the QB and running behind that great line, I could see a ranking in the top 5. In Houston, not so much.

 

I fully admit, if Osweler is a lot better than I think he is, you can bump his (Miller's) ranking up a few spots. Even then, #2 is a very gutsy projection to make. (in my opinion)

 

But right now, I think teams will stack the box to start the season and force Osweiler to beat them with his arm. If he proves he can do it, Miller may have a very good season. If he doesnt, it could be a rough one.

You don't win your league with your first round pick. But you damn sure can lose it.

 

Additionally, you don't draft a player in the first round under the assumption they're going to be the top scorer in all of fantasy. Is it part of their desired upside? Yes. But their upside isn't the only thing that projects them to be fantasy relevant. They have high floors and their upside brings them to a potentially elite level. But given the volatility, injury risk, and any other variable associated, the desire is that your player can finish as a top option in THEIR position.

 

Maybe Lamar Miller doesn't finish as the top running back. Maybe he doesn't finish as the #2 running back. But I find it almost impossible to believe that he's not going to be a RB1 many, if not a majority, of the weeks this season and overall.

 

I draft for upside in the middle-late rounds. I want the guys at the top of the draft to have the highest floors. Miller has a considerably high floor.

 

 

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Yeah I don't think Miller is a guy who can defeat stacked boxes. Although can the defense stack against the run with Hopkins running routes?

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I'm legitimately trying to understand who would be ranked ahead of Miller if one was to rank him beyond the top ten.

Gurley

Bell

Peterson

DJ

Charles???

Zeke

Lacy??

Martin?

Freeman

 

That's nine guys...

 

So that would mean one of Ingram, Murray (either DeMarco or Latavius), McCoy are ahead of him as well?

 

To each their own..I'm just curious how one would think a couple of those guys are better candidates for a more successful season than Miller.

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Miller was the 6th RB taken in my high stakes league at 2.03, behind Zeke, Bell, DJohns, Gurley, and AP.

 

Am I allowed to say this, or will the forum police flag my post because I am discussing a draft?

Was Zeke number one taken ?

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I have. D Murray ranked ahead of him .

 

I have Miller time ranked 12th and unless there are any injuries I don't see that changing .

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I have. D Murray ranked ahead of him .

 

I have Miller time ranked 12th and unless there are any injuries I don't see that changing .

I'm actually very high on D Murray this year. He was an awful fit in philly under Kelly's system. He should thrive pretty well in Tennessee

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One of, if not the youngest offensive lines in football in Tennessee. Football Outsiders ranked the Titans as the worst pass protection line and 20th in the run. Two consecutive years of a running back failing to surpass 600 yards rushing. Aside from drafting Conklin, this is the same line coming back. While re-signing Craig Stevens probably is a good move, the rest of the line is muck. That includes Warmack IMHO.

 

Given the fact he's being drafted around the same time as Latavius or Hill/Gio, who both have some of the best offensive lines in football...no thanks.

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I'm actually very high on D Murray this year. He was an awful fit in philly under Kelly's system. He should thrive pretty well in Tennessee

Plus he can catch and young Qbs love that .

 

Yeah I like him this season .

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Yeah I don't think Miller is a guy who can defeat stacked boxes. Although can the defense stack against the run with Hopkins running routes?

doesnt matter how good Hopkins is if Osweiler doesnt hit him when he's open.

 

I'm not saying hes that bad, but there is the possibility that Hopkins does not have as good a year as he had last year.

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doesnt matter how good Hopkins is if Osweiler doesnt hit him when he's open.

 

I'm not saying hes that bad, but there is the possibility that Hopkins does not have as good a year as he had last year.

Well the qb last year was pretty pathetic.

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doesnt matter how good Hopkins is if Osweiler doesnt hit him when he's open.

 

I'm not saying hes that bad, but there is the possibility that Hopkins does not have as good a year as he had last year.

I agree with this post .

 

Good job .

 

It's always a possibility at it would not surprise me .

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Well the qb last year was pretty pathetic.

be that as it may, he was able to get the ball into Hopkins hands.... and he did it a lot. So he wasnt THAT bad.

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be that as it may, he was able to get the ball into Hopkins hands.... and he did it a lot. So he wasnt THAT bad.

If we are just going by fantasy production Osweiler was able to get the ball into Thomas and Sanders hands enough to make them pretty good, probably great if we combined their numbers.

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