Draft strategy to win

[rowdystylz1 3]

All my leagues are 12 man, big money, .5ppr setups with a standard 1qb,2rbs,2wrs,1flex(wr or rb),1te,1def setup

 

Here it is: Basically if Im drafting outside the top 5 (I have 6 and 7 slots so far) I will be aggressively deploying a WR/WR/WR to start the draft. Hear me out, I look at the fantasy landscape these days and I just don't get how everybody thinks WR is deep and the need to load on RBs early, because why? RB, outside the top 5-7 are fine and dandy but after that?? Its a fockin lottery.....which is the same it was last year and the year before etc. You want to invest in Murray,Mccoy, Gore,Ingram whoever....go right ahead. Too much turnover at the RB position and too many committees so lets draft outside the box: I have specific players im targeting each round but obviously you need your own ranking...just use your personal tiers which should somehow coincide with a consensus ADP to navigate this type draft.

 

I will always take whats givin to me and I know every draft is different....If Luck or Gronk slides to me in the 2nd Ill scoop em....easy. But after hundreds of mock draft studies these are the players that will have a good chance of being there.

 

1st round (middle pick): I have Julio, AB and Dez my top 3 WRs, I will take 1 of em (Top 7 wrs are interchangeable so its just preference)

 

2nd round: Whoever slips to me out of the top 8 WRs which I have ending with AJ Green and Jordy before it gets to Cobb and TY- lets say Jordy who I see in majority of mocks

 

3rd round: This is where we lock up the position and drop the mic. I will select J.Mathews hopefully.. which im seeing is a touch early for him according to ADP but if hes gone then I happily move on to Cooks or Hopkins who either will make a nasty 3rd WR Flex

 

4th round is where I start the RB load and may not take another WR til the near end of draft.... LOAD UP!!! Gimme Stewart, Abdullah, L.Murray, Ivory, Blount......hell Alf Blue gonna be the cow in Houston for the near future....Point is, you only need 2 RBs to hit......2! Plenty to choose from fellas

 

5th round: This is where im gonna be looking for my QB in Big Ben/Wilson/Brees (maybe Brees) but there is value at QB surely later in the draft..

 

6th to the end Im back to drafting upside RBs... Do your homework and be aggressive accumulating RBs

 

My sample team will possibly look like this

QB : Big Ben

RB: Stewart

RB: Ivory

WR: Julio

WR: Jordy:

WR: J. Mathews

TE: your mom

Def: your sister.... it doesn't matter

 

Once again guys, avoid the carousel at RB and get your championship team in the first 3 rounds and be vigilant on the wire.... There are enough injuries to RBs every week to ensure yourself 2 starters.

 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Your team is bad at RB and TE and you are maybe better than half the league at QB, give or take a few spots.

[Gladiators 1,903]

I'm with you Rowdy. Injuries cannot be predicted and sometimes guys just step up while others wither away. As history has shown, the top 10 RB list this year isn't going to be the same as it was last year. We all like to think we can predict it with relatively good accuracy, but I took McCoy in a league last year and kicked myself for it. I didn't see Lamar Miller, Jeremy Hill, or CJ Anderson cracking the top 10. I thought McCoy, Gio, Mathews, and Sankey was a good stable...I was dead wrong.

 

I don't like your RB's, but I can't say they're bad until the end of the season

[rowdystylz1 3]

Im not looking for sexy RBs with the WRs I will have...But its certainly not a strategy for everybody I can agree with that. And Big Ben will finish top 5 QB my friend

[tanatastic 2,061]

Sure. If Ivory is good and another rb overachieves you may be set. Also remember that its a myth that WRs have lower turnaround in the top 10 year to year. The rate at wich the preseason adp top 10wrs fail to be top 10 at end of year is 50% or so dating back the last 10 years.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

I myself like the OPs strategy and have used it in a couple MFL10s. It seems all RBs are almost a crap shoot now but the top WRs are most likely going to finish near their ADP.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I myself like the OPs strategy and have used it in a couple MFL10s. It seems all RBs are almost a crap shoot now but the top WRs are most likely going to finish near their ADP.

Not the case at all. Did you not read my post above this one? Ok, im just a poster so I understand not taking my word as fact, fair enough. Heres a great article like the one I posted for rbs but for WRS.

http://www.fantasypros.com/2015/08/fantasy-football-predicting-the-top-10-wrs-of-2015/

It shows the rate at wich The wrs in the top 10 adp actually finished as a top 10 wr. Its 50% almost every year going back a decade.

 

Going back 10 years here’s a look of the percentage of top 10 ADP WRs that finished the season in the top 10, per season. Still think our top 10 wrs are the safest? Note that I still like WR/WR late in rnd 1 since they are overall bigger possible commodities than the rbs available. But by no means are they safer.

 

2014 60%

2013 50%

2012 50%

2010 50%

2011 50%

2010 50%

2009 50%

2008 50%

2007 60%

2006 60%

2005 30%

 

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

I like the strategy but I would change a few things. Go WR/WR most of the time unless a really good RB falls. I am picking 8 in one league.

 

Then you could grab a RB in round 3. It depends again on who falls. I like Miller.

 

If you take 2 great WR's in the first 3 rounds your off to a good start. Get a RB in round 3 and 5.

 

That means you have possibly Julio, Jordy and matthews/Cooks etc as your 3rd WR.

 

Take more RB's in rounds 6 and 7.If you grab Foster as one of them you have a future #1 RB by week 7-9.Now you have 4 RB's and 3 WR's.

 

Rounds 8-10 you can snag a QB like Brady, Tanneyhill, Eli etc with upside. Grab a TE like Eifert and another QB in round 10 as a saftey net, I like Bradford there.

 

 

[kujerry 9]

Im drafting 9th in a 14 team ppr league and thinking of going was wr/wr. Is the 9 spot late enough in a 14 team league to employ this strategy?

 

Forsett will be my keeper as a 4th rounder

[rowdystylz1 3]

I read that article as well Tan and although interesting it still doesn't sway from the fact that WR is naturally a safer position from an injury standpoint AND the the probability of a RB waiver pickup finishing in the top 10 (which seems like every year) is greater than a WR coming out of nowhere and managing a top end of year rank. Gimme 3 top 15 WRs and I'll roll dice on weekly RBs which most teams will be doing anyways with mediocre WR cores

 

Crystal, we are same page it seems. I love Miller and he's the only legit 3rd rnd RB that wld make me alter my strat but Miller has not been there in mocks I'm seeing....but what about the other RBs in that range? Gordon, randle, alf...gross! They are solid but gimme Mathews, Hopkins, cooks all day as their teams #1 WR...

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

I read that article as well Tan and although interesting it still doesn't sway from the fact that WR is naturally a safer position from an injury standpoint AND the the probability of a RB waiver pickup finishing in the top 10 (which seems like every year) is greater than a WR coming out of nowhere and managing a top end of year rank. Gimme 3 top 15 WRs and I'll roll dice on weekly RBs which most teams will be doing anyways with mediocre WR cores

 

Crystal, we are same page it seems. I love Miller and he's the only legit 3rd rnd RB that wld make me alter my strat but Miller has not been there in mocks I'm seeing....but what about the other RBs in that range? Gordon, randle, alf...gross! They are solid but gimme Mathews, Hopkins, cooks all day as their teams #1 WR...

 

 

 

Gordon is a lttle risky but they want to run and they did move up to grab him.

 

Blount seems a good pick also in round 5 or 6.

[weepaws 2,452]

Blount round five just seems to high for a Pats running back .

[MDC 5,877]

I've won and lost my main league using wildly different strategies every time. I like the idea of going WR / WR in theory but what always happens to me if I don't pick at least one RB in Round 1 is that it forces you to reach for RBs in the later rounds.

 

When you get past the 3/4 turn all your RB options are mostly RBBC timeshares, 3rd down backs or rookies / unproven. You can hit on a few of those guys, but you'll end up drafting a handful of then over receivers and QBs who offer much better value.

 

If you take say McCoy or Murray in round 2 at least you can hang your hat on one RB who is assured touches barring injury. I'm not too worried about finding my RB2 after the 3rd round but I sure as hell don't want to find my RB1 after the 15-20 best prospects are off the board.

 

This year I want to start the draft with a Top 10 RB and a Top 10 receiver. I can look over a big board and know I will have that in the bag. After that strategy is out the window and I take BPA every round thereafter.

 

The only strategy I have employed with pretty consistent success:

 

Once I get to the mid/late round stage (7-8 or later) I will always take the high upside boom or bust type over the safe but zero upside commodity. For example, I have no interest in say Anquan Boldin in round 9 because I know his upside is a mediocre 3/4 or bye week filler. I will always take the Ronnie Hillman type because he either gets cut in a few weeks or something great happens and I've got a stud at a key position.

 

I always end up churning the roster anyway so 1 diamond in the rough is worth the 4-5 picks it takes to find him.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

 

Not the case at all. Did you not read my post above this one? Ok, im just a poster so I understand not taking my word as fact, fair enough. Heres a great article like the one I posted for rbs but for WRS.

http://www.fantasypros.com/2015/08/fantasy-football-predicting-the-top-10-wrs-of-2015/

It shows the rate at wich The wrs in the top 10 adp actually finished as a top 10 wr. Its 50% almost every year going back a decade.

 

Going back 10 years heres a look of the percentage of top 10 ADP WRs that finished the season in the top 10, per season. Still think our top 10 wrs are the safest? Note that I still like WR/WR late in rnd 1 since they are overall bigger possible commodities than the rbs available. But by no means are they safer.

 

2014 60%

2013 50%

2012 50%

2010 50%

2011 50%

2010 50%

2009 50%

2008 50%

2007 60%

2006 60%

2005 30%

 

I've seen these stats and I've seen the RB stats. The RB percentages are worse. They both only have two years over 50% but RBs have more ears below 50%. To me that shows that WRs perform better than RBs.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I've seen these stats and I've seen the RB stats. The RB percentages are worse. They both only have two years over 50% but RBs have more ears below 50%. To me that shows that WRs perform better than RBs.

I was just pointing out that you statement of "The top WRs are most likely going to finish near their ADP" is false.

 

Most likely...if not staggeringly almost set your watch to it likely, half the top 10 wrs as we have them ranked this year, will not finish as top 10 wrs.

[smash-a-mus 6]

I forget where I read the article but it showed that if you look at top 5 WRs vs top 5 RBs.. Numbers drastically favors WRs.

[smash-a-mus 6]

Or was it the numbers look more even? F*ck NM. Forget my last comment. I need coffee

[bobby heenan 60]

I'm in a 10 team ppr big money league with 2 RBs 3 wrs aND a flex.....I'm picking in the middle....

 

I like thus idea for the most part...I'm going stud WR in the first....and I like the idea of a cooks/Matthews in the third.....I mean the idea of julio, Jordy and cooks/Matthews is mighty appealing.....but if a guy like jeremy hill is there for me in Rd 2 I will go there and give me at least 1 rb i feel good about....he's prob about the only guy in that range I like enough.....I think a start of dez, demaryius, julio with hill and cooks in the first 3 is pretty good....ideally I want one back in the first 3 I like and feel good about

[rowdystylz1 3]

Yes agreed. The only 2nd round RB I would possibly grab over a WR, would be Hill or Forte BUT they come with question marks as well...Forte should go earlier but I do like Hill. I'm just saying drafting 6 upside RBs and playing the waivers for them have produced gold year after year.

[rowdystylz1 3]

Take 3 WRs at the top of your list. Play the RB lottery in later rounds and pair with a solid QB in the 5/6 round.

 

Antonio Brown

AJ Green

J Mathews

 

How bout that? Look ok? Just spin the wheel fellas...

[SexyRexy 60]

Take 3 WRs at the top of your list. Play the RB lottery in later rounds and pair with a solid QB in the 5/6 round.

 

Antonio Brown

AJ Green

J Mathews

 

How bout that? Look ok? Just spin the wheel fellas...

I'm with you. This is precisely my strategy and I'm picking second overall going with AB and plan to open w 3 wr unless the board hands me a round 2 rb.

 

I'll take brown Cobb Hopkins all day then go on a rb tear. I have enough confidence in my knowledge and ability to work the wire to do this.

 

Signed sincerely,

 

The guy who owned cj Anderson and Jeremy hill last year.

[smash-a-mus 6]

I knew I wasnt crazy... here's the article

 

http://fftoday.com/articles/mitchell/15_bust_rates_rbs_wrs.html

 

"Interestingly, the numbers shift a lot when we focus on the biggest studs. Across the board, top five wide receivers have been a better option than top five running backs."

[tanatastic 2,061]

Take 3 WRs at the top of your list. Play the RB lottery in later rounds and pair with a solid QB in the 5/6 round.

Antonio Brown

AJ Green

J Mathews

How bout that? Look ok? Just spin the wheel fellas...

I love that trio, would take it all day. Matthews in the 4th and an RB in the 3rd would be gravy.

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 266]

Take 3 WRs at the top of your list. Play the RB lottery in later rounds and pair with a solid QB in the 5/6 round.

 

Antonio Brown

AJ Green

J Mathews

 

How bout that? Look ok? Just spin the wheel fellas...

 

- just mocked this from 10 hole (12 team) ppr ... rbs are gonna need to step it up:

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

QB: Matt Ryan

RB: Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon, Carlos Hyde, Chris Ivory, Dan Herron, Ronnie Hillman

WR: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Jordan Matthews, John Brown, Devin Funchess, Eddie Royal

TE: Tyler Eifert

PK: Justin Tucker

TD: St. Louis Rams

Overview: Your receivers are the strongest part of this team. It's rare for us to endorse a team with weaknesses at quarterback and running back, but we're doing it right here! You should have a contender here. But your margin for error in terms of inseason management could be a bit thinner than some of your competitors'. You must remain committed to finding 2015's emergent players at RB and QB.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

it's a definite leap of faith in the rb category, but with the up top production of the wrs, all they (rbs) need is to be steady compliments, not supermen

 

Ryan goes 5k and 43 this year , and having Julio on the other end is gravy.

[KC Deuce 1]

I have no problem with the strategy and I explored this option last year in a 12 Team PPR. I took Megatron, then AJGreen in the 2nd and got Monte Ball in the 3rd (expecting him to be Denver's guy), then got Andre Johnson and Gronk in rounds 4 and 5 (don't recall which way). Soooo; I got whom I had as the top two WR on my board . . . but they both fought injuries all year and had DOWN years for them. So it really hurt me last year. I really tend to just look at "best player available" in the first 3 - 4 rounds, then start filling in gaps for starters and depth as needed (based off my spreadsheet). I don't say I gotta go RB/WR or WR/WR or whatever . . .

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

- just mocked this from 10 hole (12 team) ppr ... rbs are gonna need to step it up:

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

QB: Matt Ryan

RB: Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon, Carlos Hyde, Chris Ivory, Dan Herron, Ronnie Hillman

WR: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Jordan Matthews, John Brown, Devin Funchess, Eddie Royal

TE: Tyler Eifert

PK: Justin Tucker

TD: St. Louis Rams

Overview: Your receivers are the strongest part of this team. It's rare for us to endorse a team with weaknesses at quarterback and running back, but we're doing it right here! You should have a contender here. But your margin for error in terms of inseason management could be a bit thinner than some of your competitors'. You must remain committed to finding 2015's emergent players at RB and QB.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

it's a definite leap of faith in the rb category, but with the up top production of the wrs, all they (rbs) need is to be steady compliments, not supermen

 

Ryan goes 5k and 43 this year , and having Julio on the other end is gravy.

Now thats how a team goes wr heavy.

[rowdystylz1 3]

That team can do serious damage. 4 very solid RBs I would be more than happy to have...My leagues are 12 teamers so I don't assume I will get those kind of guys. Some guys may not like your RBs but they will be just fine. You will have the best WRs in your league hands down barring injuries and never have to stress making decisions there. Set and forget!

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 266]

That team can do serious damage. 4 very solid RBs I would be more than happy to have...My leagues are 12 teamers so I don't assume I will get those kind of guys. Some guys may not like your RBs but they will be just fine. You will have the best WRs in your league hands down barring injuries and never have to stress making decisions there. Set and forget!

if you are referring to the mock I posted, that was a 12 team, ppr, 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex (rb,wr,te) 1 te, 1 k, 1 DST

 

 

I've been mocking outta that hole for close to a month, as that is my slot in first draft coming up on Tuesday

 

same cast of rb characters are usually hanging down in RDS 3,4,5 ... only difference this time was I went Matthews in 4 instead of rb.

 

really bummed I didn't get any of my ppr holy triumvirate of Helu/Woodhead/Vereen, bit I will reach for those kids come 'real time'

 

this strategy can be most lucrative, started last year off with Dez/Julio, and was high scorer for season, but lost in semis when Julio sat and Tre Mason hung a 3 spot up on Thursday night Foosball ....

[rowdystylz1 3]

Yes my mistake... Ill take that squad all day

[rowdystylz1 3]

Here is the team I drafted at the 7 slot out of 12 in .5 PPR going wr/wr/wr, and the round in ().

 

QB. Big Ben (6)

WR. Julio (1)

WR. Cobb (2) -drafted before the the game he got hurt....hopefully hes good to go but could have taken AJ Green or even Cooks, which I have over Jeffrey and TY, here

WR. J.Mathews (3)

RB. Ivory (4)

RB. Blount (5)

TE. Julius Thomas (9)

 

I grabbed Julius Thomas in round 9 but loaded up on lottery ticket RBs rest of way including Jonas Gray to cover for Blount week 1 if needed.

Dev. Freeman

Crowell

J Gray

Matt Jones

David Johnson

Mckinnon

 

My WRs are best in the league (on paper) and still have guys to plug in at RB....and imo Ivory and Blount will be better than just plugs. Sprinkle in a top 5 QB and TE and this is exactly the team I was looking to put together. Feedback is appreciated...

[james00 4]

Here is the team I drafted at the 7 slot out of 12 in .5 PPR going wr/wr/wr, and the round in ().

 

QB. Big Ben (6)

WR. Julio (1)

WR. Cobb (2) -drafted before the the game he got hurt....hopefully hes good to go but could have taken AJ Green or even Cooks, which I have over Jeffrey and TY, here

WR. J.Mathews (3)

RB. Ivory (4)

RB. Blount (5)

TE. Julius Thomas (9)

 

I grabbed Julius Thomas in round 9 but loaded up on lottery ticket RBs rest of way including Jonas Gray to cover for Blount week 1 if needed.

Dev. Freeman

Crowell

J Gray

Matt Jones

David Johnson

Mckinnon

 

My WRs are best in the league (on paper) and still have guys to plug in at RB....and imo Ivory and Blount will be better than just plugs. Sprinkle in a top 5 QB and TE and this is exactly the team I was looking to put together. Feedback is appreciated...

 

I like your team. You may have to pick up another Te because I think Thomas may be out a couple weeks. I think Ivory and Blount are serviceable. I went Jones Thomas Cobb in my league. I took a chance on Gordon in the 4th. I also got Randle J Bell and Woodhead so I'm a little worried about my rb's. One of them hit then i'm in good shape.I'm bummed about Cobb getting hurt though.

[Buttmonkey 8]

I am in a 16-team league and I draft 11th Wednesday - looking at going WR/WR - was considering WR/WR/WR as we can start one in the flex - here's my problem - if I go WR/WR/WR out the gate then i will of course be strong at WR, but chasing and hoping on virtually all my other positions the rest of the draft. So in a .5 ppr, better to start off say Dez, Ingram, Landry or Dez, Cooks, Landry and end up with something like Ivory/Blount in the fourth - then hope a Romo/Eli is there in the fifth? I guess my issue is I really don't like chasing the whole draft (i.e build a balanced team), but the temptation to go WR/WR/WR is weighing pretty hard on me.

[rowdystylz1 3]

I am in a 16-team league and I draft 11th Wednesday - looking at going WR/WR - was considering WR/WR/WR as we can start one in the flex - here's my problem - if I go WR/WR/WR out the gate then i will of course be strong at WR, but chasing and hoping on virtually all my other positions the rest of the draft. So in a .5 ppr, better to start off say Dez, Ingram, Landry or Dez, Cooks, Landry and end up with something like Ivory/Blount in the fourth - then hope a Romo/Eli is there in the fifth? I guess my issue is I really don't like chasing the whole draft (i.e build a balanced team), but the temptation to go WR/WR/WR is weighing pretty hard on me.

16 teamers may be a little tougher to go wr/wr/wr I wouldn't endorse that but certainly wr/wr for sure. Depends who fell but I would probably want a rb in the 3rd in that size of league. I drafted in a 14 teamer and rbs were pretty thin by the 5th.

[stonewall 647]

BPA

[Saints1 4]

Keep reading strategies and keep changing my mind! In a 10 team very competitive non-PPR, 6 pts per passing TD league. Haven't won it since I took Brees at 3 the year he blew up. From a low spot went RB-RB 2 years ago and went Richardson, Spiller and yall know how that turned out. Last year went WR-WR, Calvin and Dez. That didn't work as Calvin was hurt and went Bell and Bush as mid round RBs and just never recovered as my late RBs were Sankey and Hyde! Drew the 5th spot this year. Can't decide whether to hold and hope Luck, Rodgers or AP lasts till 5 or try and trade down and go WR-WR again. If I knew Luck would be gone by 5 I think I would prefer to trade down.

[DaBeerz 88]

I try not to pigeonhole myself into any particular strategy going into my draft.

 

1. My league has different scoring to a lot of other leagues, QB and DST are heavily weighted which screws up standard drafting strategies.

 

2. There are some unpredictable owners in my league who sometimes reach massively in the first 2 rounds can mess up mid round strategy.

 

3. Best Available Player depending on your scoring is typically most reliable I've found. I just try to fill my starters first, then get backups in key roles. In my last few drafts I typically like to have my QB, RB1, WR1 and WR/RB2 in the first 4 rounds is fairly safe (not necessarily in that order).

 

4. RB1 in the first round is risky, and I've not been successful using that strategy. In the past few years I've had my eye on top QB in the first round as they're guaranteed points.