Instant Fantasy Analysis - K Roberto Aguayo, Bucs

[The Football Guru 212]

Casual observers will likely blast this selection but seeing how the league was affected by the extra point getting moved back last year, landing a kicker that is considered nearly automatic from inside 50 yards AND has a big leg needs to be considered something more than a luxury pick. (In no way am I defending a second-round pick on a kicker, but the truth of the matter is that he wasn't going to last very long into the third round.) In a Tampa Bay offense that figures to continue its improvement in 2016, Aguayo should be considered as one of the top 12 kickers in fantasy. For those owners in dynasty leagues that believe in keeping kickers on their offseason roster, he's easily worth a fourth-round pick in rookie drafts. FWIW, Aguayo went 69-of-78 on field goals and 198-of-198 on extra points at Florida State.

[Marshall 98]

Interesting, thanks.

[Franknbeans 46]

still a reach

[weepaws 2,460]

My target at the kicker postion .

[tanatastic 2,061]

This is why bad teams stay bad people. Moving up to take a kicker in rnd 2...The buccs GM needs me to give him a basic lesson on positional scarcity. Christ..

[weepaws 2,460]

He is going to be a good pick for fantasy .

 

And that's all that matters when it comes to this pick .

[Kopy 491]

He is going to be a good pick for fantasy .

And that's all that matters when it comes to this pick .

Exactly. Bad pick for the Bucs, but good pick for me.

As a non Bucs fan, thats what matters most.

[stonewall 647]

If they are right on their scouting and confidence in him, then it will be a great pick.

 

Vinatierri won a lot of Super Bowls.

[Ray_T 591]

from what I hear he is automatic from inside 45 yards and also can kick extremely long field goals.

 

Think Sea Bass.

[tanatastic 2,061]

from what I hear he is automatic from inside 45 yards and also can kick extremely long field goals.

 

Think Sea Bass.

So not at all automatic.

[Ray_T 591]

Here is an interesting article.

 

http://www.bucsnation.com/2016/5/4/11584270/the-statistical-case-for-drafting-roberto-aguayo-in-the-second-round

 

for the record, he connected on 88.5% of all field goals during his college career.

 

Has NEVER missed a FG from inside the 40 yard line. (46 out of 46)

 

I also feel that because of the extra point coming from 32 yards out, the Kicker is going to be more relevant. Missed Extra points have changed the flow of a handful of close games this last season and I dont expect this will change.

 

I think because of that new rule, kickers will go one round earlier (on average) than they did before. This is Just my best guess. I have no evidence to back up that claim.

 

is it an early pick? maybe a bit. But if he's money inside the 40, thats a nice add to the team's bottom line.

[Kopy 491]

Stud QB and K. New England had that as a recipe for success for a few years.

[Ray_T 591]

Stud QB and K. New England had that as a recipe for success for a few years.

I'm not sure that was the plan (the kicker part)

 

but I do think that having a better kicker gives you an advantage in a close game.

 

That 40+ yard FG with 1 second left on the clock has won games for a lot of good teams (and a few not so good teams) come playoff time.

[weepaws 2,460]

Ask the Vikings .

[stonewall 647]

Ask the Vikings .

 

Ask the Bills...

[giraldi02 470]

As it pertains to the Bucs, it's a decent pick considering they were 3rd most inaccurate kicking team in the NFL last season.

 

As it pertains to fantasy however..

 

It's a kicker. Big whoop.

 

Legatron was the hottest thing since sliced bread. Now he's a fantasy irrelevant kicker.

 

If my draft allows it, I'm not taking one. It's a crapshoot, and the point differential of anyone behind Gostkowski is minuscule.

[R8RMick 242]

from what I hear he is automatic from inside 45 yards and also can kick extremely long field goals.

 

Think Sea Bass.

Oh Lord help them. Every year I wait for the team to cut that fat fock. He must have incriminating pics of Mark Davis at The Fantasy Ranch or something.

[Law 220]

from what I hear he is automatic from inside 45 yards and also can kick extremely long field goals.

 

Think Sea Bass.

 

 

He's completely different from Jano. Jano has a howitzer for a leg, but he's not always consistently accurate. Aguayo is. At least from inside a 40 yard FG. That means, if you get inside the 25 or want to kick an XP, he'll get it for you. Beyond that 40 yard FG, it's a little more dicey. He can get to 55 yards, but that's about his max. Sea Bass could hit 60+.

 

But still, being nearly automatic inside 40 is pretty impressive and a valuable tool.

 

The second round pick wasn't the extreme part as others might have done it and he very likely was going in the 3rd anyway, it was the costly move up that made it more crazy.

[shutdown 40]

On average, NFL teams attempted 31 Field Goal attempts for the 2015 Season. The best kickers converted FG's at 94%. The worst at 81% (excluding 3 outliers, one of those being Tampa). Applying those conversion rates to 31 FG's the 94% kicker hits 29, the 81% kicker hits 25.

 

On XP's NFL teams averaged 38 attemps in 2015. The best teams converting all 38, the worst, at 82% would convert 31 of 38.

 

Assuming the worst FG kickers and worst XP kickers are one in the same, the difference between the worst kickers in the NFL and the best is roughly 4 FG and 7 XP's over the course of a season. 19 total points, roughly 1.2 points per game.

 

Do other factors such as range and KO ability come into play, certainly, but much as in fantasy, there isn't much difference between the best and worst kickers in the league unless you have one of the absolute worst (which tampa did last year). Also interesting to note that in addition to having on of the worst success rates on FG's last season Tampa also attempted the 2nd most FG's in the league (40). This exacerbated the problem of having a bad kicker. I'd wager that FG attempts aren't statistically likely to remain consistent from year to year but that's just a guess.

 

I can't see where this justifies a 2nd round draft pick, it seemed to be a reactionary pick on the part of the franchise to having a terrible kicker last year and having to attempt a lot of FG's. But I'd argue that's not likely to repeat if they had just gone out and signed a free agent kicker.

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Lol I just fine this topic funny .

 

I don't think there is any question this was a bad move to move up to draft a kicker .

 

Now watch him just come out a miss everything under forty yards

[R8RMick 242]

Wonder if they could have just traded that second rounder for Justin Tucker?

[tanatastic 2,061]

Lol I just fine this topic funny .

 

I don't think there is any question this was a bad move to move up to draft a kicker .

 

Now watch him just come out a miss everything under forty yards

Or just play as well as most kickers. Hit some, miss some, make a few 50s, miss a few 50s. Why move up unless he is some magickicker who can boom 70s or has never missed or some other gimmick. Hes just a kicker, im sure he will be as good as Mike Nugent.

 

Im tellin you, the buccs needed a fantasy player to explain the concept of player relativity, value dropoff etc. Basic fantasy concepts that they apparently are lost on.