Doug Orth's Dynasty Rankings

[Mike FF Today 607]

Doug's updated his dynasty rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. We'll do another updated after the NFL Draft and then again prior to the start of the season. Top 50 QBs, Top 75 RBs, Top 75 WRs, Top 50 TEs with commentary on select players.

 

Dynasty Rankings

[lesjroza 70]

Been seeing Melvin Gordon's implied value in trades and startups trending same as or slightly above Gurley recently.

 

Another data point with Doug here, the tier break above is interesting.......how long did you debate which tier for Gordon, Doug?

[lesjroza 70]

I did see where Anthony Lynn is going to take M.G. to the next level FWIW.............I think that's the level where guys run so much they puke.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Winston 4 spots above Wilson? Uh... idk what to even say to that one. I just see two completely different qbs throwing the ball. One was running for his life but still put up a decent season with some very good games down the stretch. Any other qb would have failed imo.

 

The other qb seems to get lucky pretty often. Kind of like Bortles last year. I think one part of Winston's game I underestimated from a fantasy perspective is he has no conscience. He does not care how poor the last throw was nor how risky. He is going to try it again and again. In that aspect he hasn't been a bad fantasy qb. I still think he is a horrible real life qb.

[Marshall 98]

I found this intriguing:

 

"Paxton Lynch, DEN: Long-term developmental project may not be ready to start until 2019."

 

It would seem that 'long-term development' for QBs is almost archaic in today's NFL. Are the Broncos outliers, then?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Melvin Gordon at 4? From a talent perspective he should be in some basement tier imo. He does get a coach who wants to run, but is that really going to benefit the team? I hope it's a balanced attack, but I am a little skeptical. If I have Gordon and you have Gurley and we traded straight up, I would feel like I robbed you.

 

 

Tier 4 receivers, I love this tier. Give me tier 4 all day. I have been winning championships with them for a few years now. Part of the reason is I had some really good production from my rbs. The other part is the under valuation of a lot of players around that tier. Baldwin is tier 4? He was the 8th best receiver this year in ppr. Was he top 10 last year? He came close at least. So yes I will take receivers who started off slow but came on strong as near WR1s all day from tier 1. Please give me Rishard MATTHEWS and Baldwin for tier 4 prices.

[weepaws 2,457]

Tier two I would place Newton number one and Wilson number two.

 

And I would take Winston over Mariota.

 

And I would replace Tannehill in the third tier with Bortles.

[weepaws 2,457]

Tier one rb I can't take Zeke over DJ or Bell. His 40 targets vs 120 for DJ and 94 for Bell just don't match up for me in a ppr league.

 

Gordon At number four is an interesting pick. One must wonder if Woodhead returns how fewer targets Gordon will receive in the passing game, he had 57 last season.

[weepaws 2,457]

Tier two Rbs I think Freeman should be number one, he's numbers where still outstanding last season, I'm sure the emergence of Coleman as a lot to do with Freeman's ranking.

 

And I like Gurley in tier two a lot going into this next season, he did have 58 targets in the passing game, and I can't see him avg 3.1 yards per rush again.

[weepaws 2,457]

Wow I think D Murray will lose more work next season to Henry, but to rank him 25 in a ppr league I think is too much of a drop off.

[weepaws 2,457]

James White ranked 14 spots below D Lewis is interesting.

 

I don't agree with it.

[weepaws 2,457]

I like Beckham at number one at the Wr postion.

 

I would take M Thomas and T Hilton over A Cooper, until I see Cooper become the for sure to go Wr on the Raiders.

 

Watkins at number ten is really a questionable pick for me.

 

I would rather have the six Wr you have ranked after him.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Cooper has another issue besides his qb not trusting him, the division has some incredible talent at CB.

[murf74 461]

I found this intriguing:

 

"Paxton Lynch, DEN: Long-term developmental project may not be ready to start until 2019."

 

It would seem that 'long-term development' for QBs is almost archaic in today's NFL. Are the Broncos outliers, then?

2019 seems insane.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Yeah Eddie Lacy being ahead of

 

Dixon

Mckinnon

Demarco Murray

 

I don't understand that. In a high powered offense with Rodgers as his qb, while being the main workhorse back, he has had back to back disappointing seasons. His upside is so unbelievably low, I would take guys like Rex Burkhead, Mike Gilleslee, and Bilal Powell over him easily.

[lesjroza 70]

Yeah Eddie Lacy being ahead of

 

Dixon

Mckinnon

Demarco Murray

 

I don't understand that. In a high powered offense with Rodgers as his qb, while being the main workhorse back, he has had back to back disappointing seasons. His upside is so unbelievably low, I would take guys like Rex Burkhead, Mike Gilleslee, and Bilal Powell over him easily.

 

 

Speaking of Lacy.............are the Aaron Rudnicki and Too Loud dudes (or dude) still around?

 

In Feb/Mar last year they were non-stop about what a great bargain Lacy was going to be and taking him top 5 again, PX90, yada, yada, incredible non-stop hype. We all get some wrong, not about that, they were just so obnoxious about it..........I'd love to say Hi....lol

[The Football Guru 211]

Been seeing Melvin Gordon's implied value in trades and startups trending same as or slightly above Gurley recently.

 

Another data point with Doug here, the tier break above is interesting.......how long did you debate which tier for Gordon, Doug?

Not long. I view the ancillary parts Gordon needs to work out in his favor to be less than Gurley/Howard/Miller. I had Miller above Gurley and Howard for a short while. At any rate, the only thing Gordon needs to play up to Tier 1 status is for his o-line to stay healthy IMO. Woodhead will chip away at his value if he is retained, but for how long? Woody is 32 after all and a free agent.

[The Football Guru 211]

Winston 4 spots above Wilson? Uh... idk what to even say to that one. I just see two completely different qbs throwing the ball. One was running for his life but still put up a decent season with some very good games down the stretch. Any other qb would have failed imo.

 

The other qb seems to get lucky pretty often. Kind of like Bortles last year. I think one part of Winston's game I underestimated from a fantasy perspective is he has no conscience. He does not care how poor the last throw was nor how risky. He is going to try it again and again. In that aspect he hasn't been a bad fantasy qb. I still think he is a horrible real life qb.

I am in the projection business, as you well know. While it is nice for a player to be aesthetically pleasing, it is not a requirement and Mike Evans helps a QB look better than he may otherwise look.

 

I am projecting Winston to have another capable WR to throw to after the draft. How quickly is Seattle going to take care of that sieve of an o-line? How much longer is Wilson going to be able to run to boost his fantasy value? How much longer is Graham going to be a top-shelf TE?

[The Football Guru 211]

I found this intriguing:

 

"Paxton Lynch, DEN: Long-term developmental project may not be ready to start until 2019."

 

It would seem that 'long-term development' for QBs is almost archaic in today's NFL. Are the Broncos outliers, then?

A number of "football people" (Bill Polian is the last one I've heard say this) believe it takes four years to figure out for sure if you "have" a quarterback or not. Even if Lynch takes a huge step forward in 2017, he will still only be an average QB. If we assume that, he may be able to surpass Siemian in 2018 if he can take another jump from Year 2 to Year 3. Perhaps I should have said "start in fantasy until 2019."

[The Football Guru 211]

Melvin Gordon at 4? From a talent perspective he should be in some basement tier imo. He does get a coach who wants to run, but is that really going to benefit the team? I hope it's a balanced attack, but I am a little skeptical. If I have Gordon and you have Gurley and we traded straight up, I would feel like I robbed you.

 

 

Tier 4 receivers, I love this tier. Give me tier 4 all day. I have been winning championships with them for a few years now. Part of the reason is I had some really good production from my rbs. The other part is the under valuation of a lot of players around that tier. Baldwin is tier 4? He was the 8th best receiver this year in ppr. Was he top 10 last year? He came close at least. So yes I will take receivers who started off slow but came on strong as near WR1s all day from tier 1. Please give me Rishard MATTHEWS and Baldwin for tier 4 prices.

Aren't you the one that has been saying how Gurley has basically been average at best since a solid first half of his rookie season? Gurley had a poor o-line in 2016 as we all well know, but he ran soft too. Gurley is a supreme talent, so don't get me wrong. But when you combine everything that is wrong with the Rams offense right now (and add in the uncertainty of new HC Sean McVay), I don't know how we can realistically expect Gurley to outperform Gordon over the next 2-3 years, which is about the timetable for these kind of ratings.

 

Like you, I have yet to have a losing season in dynasty based on tier 4-type of WRs. Your points about Baldwin and Matthews were expected. Seriously though, how much higher is Baldwin's ceiling? Is it possible we've already seen his best? I think so, particularly if Lockett and Richardson can ever stay healthy. As for Mathews, I envision Tennessee drafting a Mike Williams or Corey Davis type of receiver to be the eventual No. 1. If not, Matthews will get a big boost in my post-draft rankings.

[The Football Guru 211]

Tier one rb I can't take Zeke over DJ or Bell. His 40 targets vs 120 for DJ and 94 for Bell just don't match up for me in a ppr league.

 

Gordon At number four is an interesting pick. One must wonder if Woodhead returns how fewer targets Gordon will receive in the passing game, he had 57 last season.

Solid points.

 

I took Zeke over DJ and Bell based almost solely on age. The other part of that, however, is I believe Dallas will eventually trust Zeke to handle the same kind of workload (running and receiving) DJ and Bell received last year. Bell's off-field history (I tend to consider his injury history more of a fluke since I think any RB would have suffered an injury on the same plays that sidelined him) makes him a clear No. 3 in this group IMO.

[The Football Guru 211]

Wow I think D Murray will lose more work next season to Henry, but to rank him 25 in a ppr league I think is too much of a drop off.

I'm expecting a big drop-off. If not next year, then in 2018. I'd rather get out a year early on Murray than a year late.

 

James White ranked 14 spots below D Lewis is interesting.

 

I don't agree with it.

I have both in my experts' dynasty league and I know I value Lewis much more than I do White. Yeah, White had a MVP-type game in the Super Bowl, but Lewis basically did the same thing against a better defense versus Houston a few weeks earlier. And it is worth asking yourself: when healthy, what player scares defenses more? Fourteen spots may be too big of a gap, but if we agree White is the new Kevin Faulk, we should be able to agree he isn't a dynasty foundation piece.

[The Football Guru 211]

Yeah Eddie Lacy being ahead of

 

Dixon

Mckinnon

Demarco Murray

 

I don't understand that. In a high powered offense with Rodgers as his qb, while being the main workhorse back, he has had back to back disappointing seasons. His upside is so unbelievably low, I would take guys like Rex Burkhead, Mike Gilleslee, and Bilal Powell over him easily.

I love Dixon, as you may not recall. Baltimore doesn't seem to agree, based on what I've read, since adding another RB this spring seems to be a top priority.

 

I own McKinnon as well in my aforementioned experts' league and I'm thrilled I got him for a second-round pick before the start of last season. With his "low" ranking here, I'm hedging my bet the Vikes will either add a back in the draft (somewhat likely) or keep Peterson at a lower rate (much less likely). He is another player who will get a nice bump up if Minnesota doesn't take a RB early in April.

 

As I said earlier, I think Murray has one year left (if that). I don't love Lacy by any stretch, but how many of us were singing his praises (again) this past summer when he looked to be around 240-ish? It is quite possible he never comes close to returning to his previous value, but his could theoretically curb his weight issues at any time. At age 26, he has some time. Obviously, his high ranking depends on his return to GB.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Aren't you the one that has been saying how Gurley has basically been average at best since a solid first half of his rookie season? Gurley had a poor o-line in 2016 as we all well know, but he ran soft too. Gurley is a supreme talent, so don't get me wrong. But when you combine everything that is wrong with the Rams offense right now (and add in the uncertainty of new HC Sean McVay), I don't know how we can realistically expect Gurley to outperform Gordon over the next 2-3 years, which is about the timetable for these kind of ratings.

 

Like you, I have yet to have a losing season in dynasty based on tier 4-type of WRs. Your points about Baldwin and Matthews were expected. Seriously though, how much higher is Baldwin's ceiling? Is it possible we've already seen his best? I think so, particularly if Lockett and Richardson can ever stay healthy. As for Mathews, I envision Tennessee drafting a Mike Williams or Corey Davis type of receiver to be the eventual No. 1. If not, Matthews will get a big boost in my post-draft rankings.

Yes I have. I also am intrigued by their new HC. Still there is plenty of risk with Gurley with the lack of offensive options around him. I know I am not in the minority on this one because I have been told by multiple people if I trade them Bell for their Gurley, it's close to a wash to them. I don't see it that way, but I do not think that puts him near Gordon.

 

For me it's a talent issue with Gordon. I never thought he was anything special. An above average back probably on a somewhat dysfunctional team. It's hard to tell what will come with the new HC. So for me it comes down to Gurley = superstar and Gordon = above avergae. I will take the superstar all day and just hope his team builds around him.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I love Dixon, as you may not recall. Baltimore doesn't seem to agree, based on what I've read, since adding another RB this spring seems to be a top priority.

 

I own McKinnon as well in my aforementioned experts' league and I'm thrilled I got him for a second-round pick before the start of last season. With his "low" ranking here, I'm hedging my bet the Vikes will either add a back in the draft (somewhat likely) or keep Peterson at a lower rate (much less likely). He is another player who will get a nice bump up if Minnesota doesn't take a RB early in April.

 

As I said earlier, I think Murray has one year left (if that). I don't love Lacy by any stretch, but how many of us were singing his praises (again) this past summer when he looked to be around 240-ish? It is quite possible he never comes close to returning to his previous value, but his could theoretically curb his weight issues at any time. At age 26, he has some time. Obviously, his high ranking depends on his return to GB.

I agree on everything you said about Dixon, McKinnon and Murray. I just see Lucy's ceiling so low that he isn't even roster able to me. Only reason I would have him is to trade him away. Give me a free agent like Burkhead who could sign into a good situation.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

Like you, I have yet to have a losing season in dynasty based on tier 4-type of WRs. Your points about Baldwin and Matthews were expected. Seriously though, how much higher is Baldwin's ceiling? Is it possible we've already seen his best? I think so, particularly if Lockett and Richardson can ever stay healthy. As for Mathews, I envision Tennessee drafting a Mike Williams or Corey Davis type of receiver to be the eventual No. 1. If not, Matthews will get a big boost in my post-draft rankings.

Yeah Baldwin may have hit his ceiling, but that doesn't mean he should be in tier 4. Brown, Beckham and Julio may have all technically hit their ceilings. Doesn't mean they should be ranked out of tier 1. Yes Baldwin has some competition, but I think this year proved that he is Wilson's favorite guy. Graham doesn't fit the system. Hopefully Bevel is fired soon so he can quit costing this team offensive opportunities, plus they need that oline help.

 

Matthews is really good. Really good receiver plus Mariota should mean good output. I don't see why adding another receiver would be a bad thing.

[weepaws 2,457]

The Football Guru you make some really great points, and I want to think you for replying.

[The Football Guru 211]

Yeah Baldwin may have hit his ceiling, but that doesn't mean he should be in tier 4. Brown, Beckham and Julio may have all technically hit their ceilings. Doesn't mean they should be ranked out of tier 1. Yes Baldwin has some competition, but I think this year proved that he is Wilson's favorite guy. Graham doesn't fit the system. Hopefully Bevel is fired soon so he can quit costing this team offensive opportunities, plus they need that oline help.

 

Matthews is really good. Really good receiver plus Mariota should mean good output. I don't see why adding another receiver would be a bad thing.

I didn't mention Baldwin's ceiling in terms of comparing a Tier 1 WR with a Tier 4 WR, but whether or not his career will go up or down from here. Until that line gets fixed in Seattle, there's a good chance Russell Wilson will have more years like this one and probably miss games. IF that happens and Lockett and/or Richardson continue to develop, then there will be fewer balls to go around in what figures to remain a pretty balanced offense. I highly doubt Bevell will get fired soon. Outside of the infamous Malcolm Butler interception in the Super Bowl a few years ago and one or two other situations in which he went pass-heavy at the goal line, I would argue Bevell has been in the top half of OCs during his time in Seattle. At the very least, he's done well to design an offense that allows Wilson to take deep drops (to avoid tips) and use his athleticism.

 

I agree Matthews is good, although he is due for a bit of regression after finishing with nine TDs on 65 catches last year. Asking him to match that kind of production going forward as the likely No. 2 WR - fighting for targets with Delanine Walker and perhaps Mike Williams - in a run-based offense is possible but unlikely IMO. I think we saw his ceiling this year, so while it is a nice ceiling, I think a good case can be made that every player in front of him has a talent, age and/or situation-based advantage on him.

[cousinal111 57]

I found this intriguing:

 

"Paxton Lynch, DEN: Long-term developmental project may not be ready to start until 2019."

 

It would seem that 'long-term development' for QBs is almost archaic in today's NFL. Are the Broncos outliers, then?

John Elway won't settle on Siemien being QB until Lynch is ready in 2019, so if that is accurate I would expect a new QB acquired in March.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I didn't mention Baldwin's ceiling in terms of comparing a Tier 1 WR with a Tier 4 WR, but whether or not his career will go up or down from here. Until that line gets fixed in Seattle, there's a good chance Russell Wilson will have more years like this one and probably miss games. IF that happens and Lockett and/or Richardson continue to develop, then there will be fewer balls to go around in what figures to remain a pretty balanced offense. I highly doubt Bevell will get fired soon. Outside of the infamous Malcolm Butler interception in the Super Bowl a few years ago and one or two other situations in which he went pass-heavy at the goal line, I would argue Bevell has been in the top half of OCs during his time in Seattle. At the very least, he's done well to design an offense that allows Wilson to take deep drops (to avoid tips) and use his athleticism.

 

I agree Matthews is good, although he is due for a bit of regression after finishing with nine TDs on 65 catches last year. Asking him to match that kind of production going forward as the likely No. 2 WR - fighting for targets with Delanine Walker and perhaps Mike Williams - in a run-based offense is possible but unlikely IMO. I think we saw his ceiling this year, so while it is a nice ceiling, I think a good case can be made that every player in front of him has a talent, age and/or situation-based advantage on him.

I don't think it's normal for an OC to be flipped off in the middle of a game multiple times and have players from defense publicly calling him out.

 

Wilson is as talented a qb in the NFL imo. Why does the offense struggle so often then? The line is really bad, but Bevel doesn't seem to adjust well to it. He has known it's bad for some time, yet he hasn't seemed to adjust on a consistent basis. I think Wilson is so good he is holding up Bevel.

[Kopy 489]

I've been flipping Bevel off consistantly for the last 4 years.

It's normal at my house.

LOL.

[Marshall 98]

I've been flipping Bevel off consistantly for the last 4 years.

It's normal at my house.

LOL.

 

Har!

Same here.

[Super Cubs 132]

Dynasty QB not counting Luck or Rogers who do want?

 

Looking at these ranking you got Carr, Mariota, and Winston as the next 3.

 

I like Carr. Have not seen enough of Mariota. Winston seems like a knuckle head.

 

Dak and Wentz looked ok. I did not see much of Goff.

 

Bortles is still pretty young but kind of sucked this past year.

[weepaws 2,457]

Wilson

[lesjroza 70]

Its early but.................................gimme Dak at their respective prices

 

If I'm straight drafting and they are all on the board, probably go Mariota the first time, close enough I may go a different way in a 2nd draft though just to spread the bets

[ROCKFORD 134]

wentz

[weepaws 2,457]

Interesting to have read that Wentz had elbow pain during his rookie season.

[Super Cubs 132]

Wilson

 

should have been Winston seems like a knuckle head not Wilson.

[weepaws 2,457]

It doesn't hurt my feelings.