Stock Market - interesting little morsel of history - Notice anything?

[tubby_mcgee 686]

1906-1924, the Dow went from 100 to 100. 18 years.
1924-1929, from 100 to 300.
1929-1954, from 300 to 300.
1954-1966, from 300 to 1000.
1966-1982, from 1000 to 1000.
1982-2000, from 1000 to 11000.
2000-20111, from 11000 to 11000.
2011-2018, from 11000 to 26000.



2018 - ????. from 26000 to ?????.

[Cdub100 3,380]

I think it's heading straight into a rats ass

[Bert 1,091]

I swear I know this one. It has something to do with the length of women's skirts.

[LOD01 190]

2019 - 20-30% correction, then right back to the bull market thru 2025 or 2026, then the real hits the fan.

[cyclone24 1,814]

Jesus I hope you stole these numbers from something or somewhere else and didn't do all that on your own for such a small payoff.

[dain11279 927]

Everything about the OP's avatar makes sense now

[frank 2,144]

I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.

[cbfalcon 824]

I'm beyond lost.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

The DOW keeps going up over time?

[RLLD 3,455]

Tulips....

[tubby_mcgee 686]

The DOW keeps going up over time?

 

Alternating periods of flat, then substantial growth. It appears as though we are due for a long stretch of flat.

[lickin_starfish 1,480]

1906-1924, the Dow went from 100 to 100. 18 years.
1924-1929, from 100 to 300. 5 years
1929-1954, from 300 to 300. 25 years
1954-1966, from 300 to 1000. 12 years
1966-1982, from 1000 to 1000. 16 years
1982-2000, from 1000 to 11000. 18 years
2000-20111, from 11000 to 11000. 18,111 years
2011-2018, from 11000 to 26000. 7 years

 

What is the pattern?

[tubby_mcgee 686]

1906-1924, the Dow went from 100 to 100. 18 years.

1924-1929, from 100 to 300. 5 years

1929-1954, from 300 to 300. 25 years

1954-1966, from 300 to 1000. 12 years

1966-1982, from 1000 to 1000. 16 years

1982-2000, from 1000 to 11000. 18 years

2000-20111, from 11000 to 11000. 18,111 years

2011-2018, from 11000 to 26000. 7 years

 

What is the pattern?

 

Just as I said above.

 

Long periods of flat, followed by long periods of growth.

 

Kindergartners refer to it as A/B/A/B pattern.

 

 

 

I get what you are saying. There is no exact yearly pattern you can set your watch to, but still...interesting.

 

As far as 2018, we haven't finished (maybe) that string of growth. It might extend way past 7 years.

[bandrus1 413]

January 2, 1935 104.51

 

 

[cbfalcon 824]

 

Alternating periods of flat, then substantial growth. It appears as though we are due for a long stretch of flat.

 

By not having a common interval, you are manipulating the pattern..

 

For example, if you stuck to 5 year intervals, it probably goes down at times. But hypothetically in the case of your 25 year interval, it could have in theory went down for 20 consecutive years, then bounced all the way back in the following 5, and you make things look like they were flat for 25 years.

[Bert 1,091]

 

Just as I said above.

 

Long periods of flat, followed by long periods of growth.

 

Kindergartners refer to it as A/B/A/B pattern.

 

 

 

I get what you are saying. There is no exact yearly pattern you can set your watch to, but still...interesting.

 

As far as 2018, we haven't finished (maybe) that string of growth. It might extend way past 7 years.

[bandrus1 413]

its ok tubby

 

you tried

[Kanil 519]

its ok tubby

 

you tried

 

No... no... it's really not ok.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

1906-1924, the Dow went from 100 to 100. 18 years.

1924-1929, from 100 to 300. 5 years

1929-1954, from 300 to 300. 25 years

1954-1966, from 300 to 1000. 12 years

1966-1982, from 1000 to 1000. 16 years

1982-2000, from 1000 to 11000. 18 years

2000-20111, from 11000 to 11000. 18,111 years

2011-2018, from 11000 to 26000. 7 years

 

What is the pattern?

It ends in 00 everytime

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

It ends in 00 everytime

 

[The PosterFormerlyKnownAs 61]

1906-1924, the Dow went from 100 to 100. 18 years.

1924-1929, from 100 to 300.

1929-1954, from 300 to 300.

1954-1966, from 300 to 1000.

1966-1982, from 1000 to 1000.

1982-2000, from 1000 to 11000.

2000-20111, from 11000 to 11000.

2011-2018, from 11000 to 26000.

 

 

 

2018 - ????. from 26000 to ?????.

It took 60 years for the Dow to go up 900 points (1906 - 1966)

 

It then took 34 years to go up 10,000 points.

 

It then took 18 years to go up 15,000 points.

 

Overall, there is much more money going into the market every year, so its rising quicker. As long as individuals are primarily responsible for their retirement savings, I think well see the market continue to rise overall ... with some periods more productive than others. The only question in my mind given this trend is whether baby boomer retirements and withdrawals reverse the trend of market growth ... but I dont think it will as the impact is spread over time.

[bandrus1 413]

I would think that even if boomer money comes out, they take it and spend it and then it gets filtered back in by different entities?

 

It isnt like somebody is going to retire or die and just stuff all their savings in the mattress

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

on a serious note, the only thing i notice is the fairly obvious concept that the market has always gone up and will continue to go up. you might have a long stretch of flat but for the most part, any downturns in the market will be corrected and then some.

 

now, had you broken it down into smaller stretches, you would see these downturns BUT, when investing for the future, you don't panic sell your assets. You buy more.

[TD Ryan2 314]

the market goes up and down as it steadily goes up over time

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

the market goes up and down as it steadily goes up over time

 

If you adjust for inflation it mostly stays steady with smaller increases over time.

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1a3bP-GV8Y/T1ajvk0N9oI/AAAAAAAABSg/8TheBHlMppk/s1600/Dow%2BInflation-Adjusted%2BClosing%2BPrices.jpg

[tubby_mcgee 686]

 

By not having a common interval, you are manipulating the pattern..

 

For example, if you stuck to 5 year intervals, it probably goes down at times. But hypothetically in the case of your 25 year interval, it could have in theory went down for 20 consecutive years, then bounced all the way back in the following 5, and you make things look like they were flat for 25 years.

 

 

That is true, about manipulating the pattern.

 

That being said, what I posted, as it was posted, is 100% fact.

[DankNuggs 305]

I noticed cherrypicking

[bandrus1 413]

 

 

That is true, about manipulating the pattern.

 

That being said, what I posted, as it was posted, is 100% fact.

 

 

tucker carlson fan by any chance?

[Bert 1,091]

 

 

That is true, about manipulating the pattern.

 

That being said, what I posted, as it was posted, is 100% fact.

Oh good lord.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

Oh good lord.

 

 

Its all in the wrist.

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,515]

Something seems fishy here.

 

How did we go from the Year 20111 back to 2011?

[vuduchile 1,941]

 

If you adjust for inflation it mostly stays steady with smaller increases over time.

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1a3bP-GV8Y/T1ajvk0N9oI/AAAAAAAABSg/8TheBHlMppk/s1600/Dow%2BInflation-Adjusted%2BClosing%2BPrices.jpg

Right. Average annual inflation since 1964 (year I was born) is 3.92%.