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penultimatestraw

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penultimatestraw last won the day on May 21 2018

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About penultimatestraw

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  1. penultimatestraw

    Geeks you have a vendetta with because of...

    @iam90sbaby for welching, especially acting indignant that I asked for follow up on our bet, saying I should “chill TF out”. Not cool at all.
  2. penultimatestraw

    I am starting a new business - bar/gambling

    I saw a porcupine on the slopes of Arapahoe Basin. Stupid snowboarders (is there any other type?) were pestering it. It shook off some of its quills and climbed a tree. Actually seen quite a few animals on ski slopes: a couple moose, some sort of weasel/ermine and a skunk. The latter was in the back bowls of Vail, and probably was rabid. I’ve also seen many owls, and know of a cave near my house where they nest. Always wanted to see a mountain lion or lynx. The only wild kitty I’ve encountered was a bobcat.
  3. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    Nurses encompass a big spectrum of training, from 2 year trade programs like LPNs all the way to advanced degrees like nurse practitioner and pHDs. The former have little education beyond high school science, while the latter can be every bit as clinically competent as physicians. But they’re all considered nurses. So I wouldn’t necessarily assume they all understand much about a risk:benefit analysis of getting vaccinated. Look at the group with the most relevant training and scientific/clinical expertise instead. On a related note, there are quite a few healthcare workers who smoke too. Wanna guess which groups smoke the most? LPNs and respiratory therapists.
  4. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    100% incorrect. More importantly, you didn't answer any of my questions.
  5. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    I'm sure the answer is multifactorial, but I'll answer your question with another: why are physicians overwhelmingly in favor of getting vaccinated? This includes plenty of frontline workers, and women of childbearing age. And a couple more questions: How much immunology, infectious disease and public health training does a typical nurse receive? What about interpretation of clinical data? When you are looking for medical advice, do you prefer to ask a doctor or a nurse? Nursing is an extremely challenging and noble profession, but there's little reason to believe they are adept at evidence-based clinical decisions.
  6. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    You might think differently after working a few shifts in a hospital that's hard hit by covid. But it doesn't really matter, as I highly doubt we'll go down that path again. Definitely on board with gentle encouragement to get more people vaccinated.
  7. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    No idea what standards they adhere to in the Philippines, but pregnancy isn't a contraindication to vaccination.
  8. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    Jerry, we have almost no ICU beds in my hospital right now (ie. 97% ICU capacity, 104% elsewhere...today, not late July - 100+ COVID patients in the hospital). They are "creating" ICU beds in places not designed for that purpose, just in case someone already admitted crashes and needs intensive care. Every hospital on Oahu, TMK, is in a similar predicament, and we're rotating accepting patients arriving by ambulance, as every ER is on divert (too many occupied beds to accept new patients). I've been a physician here for nearly two decades, and I've never seen anything like this, including earlier in the pandemic. A tent has be re-erected to help with overflow, we're cancelling elective procedures again and our ICU staff is refusing to accept critically ill transfers, because they're so swamped with covid patients. All that is far worse than the potential for kids to be socially delayed by masks.
  9. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    Gun to my head, I think all kids should be immunized, with the caveat I've not looked at safety data for really young children. Same goes for pregnant +/- breastfeeding women, where I linked some info in the other thread. People are so damn histrionic about masking. In my (limited) experience, kids don't mind at all, and are better than adults at remembering to wear them. Granted, these are children of physicians in the 8-14 year old age group. Little kids and teenagers would surely be tougher. I agree prolonged remote schooling is impractical and potentially harmful, though I also believe children are far more resilient than people think, and a lot of the "concerns" are related to parental burnout. Even without "ripping off the band aid", hospitals are getting overwhelmed - this includes Hawaii, where we've been pretty restrictive throughout the pandemic. In no shape or form should we ease off restrictions now, and I think there's a good argument we should ramp things back up until through the delta surge.
  10. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    2. Vaccination promotes immunity more safely, and more rapidly than waiting for people (including kids) to get covid the old-fashioned way. Even with maldistribution and resistance to vaccines, 4.76 billion doses have been administered - that's far more than even the most pessimistic estimate of covid-19 cases. Not interested in revisiting gun control, but it's pretty bizarre to ignore the largest segment of firearm-related deaths when discussing the topic. 3. Here's a few links which show higher antibody levels among vaccinated people, rates of reinfection in those with natural immunity (pre-delta), a comparison of infection risk in those with natural vs. vaccine-derived immunity, and a couple of summaries explaining the differences between vaccination and immunity following infection. Because of delta, herd immunity is certainly a long-shot. I agree we won't achieve it globally, but local control is certainly possible through a combination of vaccination + natural immunity. And to clarify, herd immunity is not synonymous with disease eradication, which definitely ain't happening for a very long time, if ever, animal reservoir or not. Regardless, if people want a return to normalcy, vaccines are the way to go. As an aside, the herd immunity threshold isn't arbitrary; it's derived from the virus' basic reproduction number, R0. The simplified formula is 1 - 1/R0. So with the original SARS-CoV-2 (R0 between 2 and 3), we needed 50-67% of the population to be immune to curtail spread. Delta's R0 is more like 8-10, so 88-90% of a population must be vaccinated/previously infected with adequate antibody response for covid to peter out.
  11. penultimatestraw

    Any proof yet that the vaccine DOESN'T sterilize people?

    Sure Link to actual study
  12. penultimatestraw

    What do vaccinated people think?

    1. Before delta, they might have, but I think most people have come to realize delta replicates more rapidly, is more transmissible +/- virulent. Unvaccinated people have greater potential to spread infection, by virtue of their higher likelihood of being symptomatic, and longer duration of viral carriage. 2. It's not wrong to want to protect children, whose individual risk is admittedly low (but not zero), as they can serve as vectors for spreading covid-19. The better reasons to get vaccinated are to protect people vulnerable to severe disease (including people with impaired immune systems, incomplete/waning immunity from prior infection/vaccination and those unable to be vaccinated ) + limiting the viral pool available to mutate - the latter goal is especially problematic considering poor vaccine coverage worldwide, but we have to start somewhere. 3. As others have explained, the vaccine is regulated and extensively tested, with ongoing investigation of potential late adverse effects. So far serious AEs appear vanishing rare, and there is no precedent nor scientific plausibility for a delayed, widespread and serious vaccine AE to offset the risk covid poses right now, and for the foreseeable future. But yes, the mRNA vaccines appear to induce a more specific and durable immune response than acquired through natural infection. Vaccine-derived antibodies occur in higher levels than we see following recovery from covid, and breakthrough infection happens less after the vaccines. One last thing. Although herd immunity is unlikely, it's not impossible, even with animal reservoirs for the virus. But the number of people vaccinated + infected has to exceed 90+% of the population. We've achieved that number for many childhood diseases, due to compulsory vaccine coverage. So it is possible, if we get our collective heads out of our a$$es, and stop the politicization/misinformation surrounding vaccination.
  13. penultimatestraw

    I wonder how much iam90'sbaby has made so far.

    Nope. Yep. Especially after making a show of me needing to "chill" after he went MIA for months after the election, then inauguration. And if he's 1/1000th the investor he portrays, there should be plenty of forgotten Benjamins stuck in his seat cushions. He certainly makes the list. Sadly, it's probably one of his better qualities.
  14. penultimatestraw

    I wonder how much iam90'sbaby has made so far.

    Not enough to pay a $100 bet
  15. penultimatestraw

    What state would you live in

    Top tier: Places with big mountains - Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, Idaho Second tier: Outdoor stuff, but too crowded, cold or rainy - Alaska, CA, WA, OR, SD Third tier: Beautiful, too hot - Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona Fourth: Eastern states with decent climate and scenery - NC, Tenn, ?VA Fifth: The rest of the E coast, SE>NE No chance in he!!: TX, FL, all the flat states in the middle.
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