How to play the oil market on a budget.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Seesaw, seesaw

[kilroy69 994]

It's getting pounded today on weak demand from China.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Wish I had the stones to do what I said earlier in this thread and "day trade" it.

 

It's clearly a stock that is going to seesaw for a while.

 

For giggles I did a little math on what could have been with an initial 5k investment. I didn't assume to hit every peak and valley perfectly. Just the general flow. 10 to 15 cents off the highs and lows, starting with an initial purchase at about 7.60 with first sale at 8.30 amd another buy in the 6.70 range. Etc....

 

5k would a have been 657 shares originally and could currently be 1069 shares assuming a current low around 8 holds and doesn't go much lower.

 

I did this long ago with BofA but thus has seemingly much higher upside.

[kilroy69 994]

Good run in the last 2 days after a scare on soft demand from China

[kilroy69 994]

I dont discount the fact you could make some cash from daytrading this. I just feel like as a longterm hold it could see 40 by the end of the year and thats a solid return on a small time bet.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I dont discount the fact you could make some cash from daytrading this. I just feel like as a longterm hold it could see 40 by the end of the year and thats a solid return on a small time bet.

 

yes. no argument here. however you could day trade it and long term end up with a better result if it sees 40

 

the factors for oils plunge have not yet gone away so thats why i expect to keep seeing these peaks and valleys in the short term

[kilroy69 994]

If you could predict the peaks and valleys on this it could be very profitable for sure at this low of a price and ride it up. I just don't have it in me to day trade. I feel like I would make the wrong choice short term. Long term I feel more comfortable calling prices.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

This focking thing... if I had enough cash to buy 1k shares I think I would try my hand at day trading it. What a 1-2 dollar seesaw.

 

A guy could make some quick focking scratch pretty easily. Even if you miss the up tick... give it a sec... you'll be fine... its fluxing that much

[kilroy69 994]

its been an interesting stock to play so far. it looks like a 3 day run and going up in after hours trading. I would say a 2% increase........or a 25% drop tomorrow lol.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

i still havnt got in on this. was hoping to get it below 8. kicking myself for not getting it below 7 but ive got a position in FNMA right now that is paying off. played this one 3-4 times before.

[kilroy69 994]

what price did you get in at fnma? that has been a pretty good climb.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

2.15 this time.

 

 

but i've been playing it off and on since early 2013. it spiked in the summer of 2013 and i didnt get off the pot. ended up holding until it rose over $6 last march. its made me some good $$ but I could have played it a little better.

 

long term it has amazing potential. AIG potential, probably better. with the billions in profits they (FNMA, FMCC) are pumping into Osamas pockets, its all in the hands of the courts now. any type of release from conservator or re listing would probably see it at a minimum $25 pps. Lot of big boys backing it too (berkowitz, Ackman).

 

 

i've got about 5k lined up for UCO if I finally get the balls / entry point I like

[kilroy69 994]

now may be that time. Its down 2% in premarket trading.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

now may be that time. Its down 2% in premarket trading.

 

i dont really see it going over 10 in the near term (1-2 weeks) so im still hoping for something in the 7's like a greedy bastard

[HenryHill9323 65]

 

 

At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ready-10-oil-230002605.html

[mmmmm...beer 691]

I'm reading I missed the boat on FNMA when it was a penny a share... but what about getting into it now?

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I'm reading I missed the boat on FNMA when it was a penny a share... but what about getting into it now?

Fnma was .30 a share 2 years ago. I missed that boat too. Like i mentioned before I've been in and out of it 3 times. Made a bit of money along the way. Maybe 6k.

 

Right now is a gamble. Everything is in the hands of the courts as far as determining of the government's action were illegal or unfair to shareholders. The only reason this stock is not a 20 dollar or above stock is that the government sweeps all its profits despite having been paid back on its "bailout". Lot of big name hedge fund guys backing fnma, heading the lawsuits. But there is a real chance it goes to 0. It's a much riskier play than something like UCO but ofcourse, much greater potential profits.

 

Example being in should have made about 16k not 6 I just didn't get out at the right time last march.

 

And people who bought at .30 and sold last march, over 6 dollars per share.... they've retired

[kilroy69 994]

wow that took a beating in the last few days.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

wow that took a beating in the last few days.

 

yea. i had to sell at 3.10. made about 4500 after trade fees. i'll probably be back in soon

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Well WhiteWonder... today is probably your day to get into UCO. We're back under $8

[kilroy69 994]

wow that tanked. still see it above 40 for the year but wow.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Well WhiteWonder... today is probably your day to get into UCO. We're back under $8

 

finished red again. dont get me wrong im cheering for all you guys who bought in. and if i missed the boat, no worries. but im thinking i can get it lower in the 7s

 

 

also the other day i was watching a biotech stock that developed some breast cancer testing via blood tests i believe. thing is up like 200%. it was closing lower yesterday and i almost bought at 2.25... couldnt pull the trigger. It finished at 3.39 today. would have been an easy 3 grand. and now i wont end up touching it because so many of the biotech and pharma stocks end up being pump and dump schemes.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

There you go Johnny come lately... it's back at 7.50 ish... get in.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

There you go Johnny come lately... it's back at 7.50 ish... get in.

Johnny come lately?

 

It's go9ng lower. I'm actually.looking at Alcoa too

[kilroy69 994]

long term i think it has 40 potential but damnnn

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Yeah... not worried about oil staying low forever and if I can't live without the 2k I have in it, I probably shouldn't be doing this in the first place. Just being a little ADD about it.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Johnny come lately?

 

It's go9ng lower. I'm actually.looking at Alcoa too

See... see.... how'd you know I was talking bout you!

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

Oil prices should stay steady or go up, but rig count has not yet hit bottom.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

See... see.... how'd you know I was talking bout you!

 

But I've been here from the start

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Fooooccckkkkk.... low 6's.

[patweisers44 697]

MTSkiBum, on 11 Mar 2015 - 12:21 PM, said:

Oil prices should stay steady or go up, but rig count has not yet hit bottom.

Agreed, however I don't believe that rig count is as big an indicator as its been in the past. Prodcution has been increasing, despite rig counts recently. Producers are more efficient than they have been in the past.

[kilroy69 994]

Wow that has been a bad call on my part short term.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

You guys are in it long term. Don't worry.

 

I'm just trying to decide how cheap I can get this now. I think back in 09 oil started to climb around april

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Wow... was in the 5's earlier today... up to high 6's now... +10% on the day.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

DAMN... back up to almost 8 bucks! Somebody made some money this week.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

i missed my chance to get in under 6 but i bought at 6.22

[mmmmm...beer 691]

i missed my chance to get in under 6 but i bought at 6.22

Thats still a buck and a half under me. Nice snag.

[mayhem39 3]

Bought at $8.81 fml

[hdaddy 17]

June OPEC meeting may send this north if they call for reduction in production.

[patweisers44 697]

UCO bid ask this morning is 10.10/10.11