Sony Michel

[snatchit 108]

I could be wrong but it all adds up. We all know that NE would never in the past pick a RB in the 1st rnd.

I think they we be a strong running team this year

Lots of young WR's

Brady another year older, QB's dont get hurt handing the ball off. Of course I know they will throw, I just think there will be a shift in game plan.

Burkhead with a slight tear in his knee... I think

White, kind of tips their hand on the play.... I know he runs between the tackles some

Hill, Sony is a big boy

Sony was graded very good in pass pro, may have been the best in the class

They may look at all these other teams with a rookie RB, being the main ball carrier and playing great.

Sony is a pure 3 dn back.

[jrokh 567]

You may be right, he could eventually be the guy, but from the outside looking in you sound like the typical Fantasy Player trying to talk themselves in to a later round pick. Hope it works out for you, though,,,

[seafoam1 1,878]

Sony is sooo worth a shot at this time. His cost couldn't be any lower. I got him in my auction keeper for 3% of cap. Both Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman went for over 11%. I believe Sony to have more polished and all-around talent than either of those guys.In the fantasy world, maybe his injury is a good thing to drive his price into the gutter. I'm not worried about Belichick using him, the worry for me is if he can come back strong from the injury. I've got him locked up for 4 years for pennies. It's what I did with David Johnson (1%) and LeVeon Bell (5%) when they were rookies. I got Hunt as a rookie for only 10% of cap for 4 years as well. It is so worth the chance in keeper leagues.

[jackjohn 31]

I like him late rounds also. This wouldn't be a Belicheck MO, but he likes to do the unexpected. I wouldn't draft him in the first 12 rds, but after that, it's mostly a dart throw anyway. I have him on my list, but if someone else takes him earlier, I wont lose any sleep.

[lesjroza 70]

Definition of risk/reward in salary cap leagues IMO, especially if they have a keeper or dynasty component.

 

The cost is so low relative to the reward if he hits.

 

I'm not saying its high percentage play given NEs historic split of RB snaps, the teams preference for experience, Brady late in his carreer and uncertainty going forward, etc but even the guys who have had a split but regularly defined role like Blount or Lewis in NE were very FF relevant.

 

The Patriots 1st round investment level will help foster some level of commitment to development through health or performance bumps, and he is a VERY, VERY talented athlete who is also skilled in the areas the current offense.

 

I was not super high at the cost of 1.02-1.04 in rookie drafts................ but its crazy how cheap he is now late in the summer.

[snatchit 108]

You may be right, he could eventually be the guy, but from the outside looking in you sound like the typical Fantasy Player trying to talk themselves in to a later round pick. Hope it works out for you, though,,,

I targeted him, and got him. No regrets

[snatchit 108]

Definition of risk/reward in salary cap leagues IMO, especially if they have a keeper or dynasty component.

 

The cost is so low relative to the reward if he hits.

 

I'm not saying its high percentage play given NEs historic split of RB snaps, the teams preference for experience, Brady late in his carreer and uncertainty going forward, etc but even the guys who have had a split but regularly defined role like Blount or Lewis in NE were very FF relevant.

 

The Patriots 1st round investment level will help foster some level of commitment to development through health or performance bumps, and he is a VERY, VERY talented athlete who is also skilled in the areas the current offense.

 

I was not super high at the cost of 1.02-1.04 in rookie drafts................ but its crazy how cheap he is now late in the summer.

I understand the experience thing.... but the dude is strong in pass pro. That's all that matters to them, that should keep him on the field

[justforbeer 39]

Last time the patriots drafted a running back in the first round it was Lawrence Maroney.

 

There are so many running backs on the team, they are the epitomy of running back by committee.

 

Shane Vereen was a second round pick, and he didn’t go that well.

 

Sony may not even play in week one.

 

Lastly, James White Dominates third down. His experience, leadership and talents will keep him in that spot unless he gets hurt.

 

Need more reasons?

[seafoam1 1,878]

Last time the patriots drafted a running back in the first round it was Lawrence Maroney.

 

There are so many running backs on the team, they are the epitomy of running back by committee.

 

Shane Vereen was a second round pick, and he didn’t go that well.

 

Sony may not even play in week one.

 

Lastly, James White Dominates third down. His experience, leadership and talents will keep him in that spot unless he gets hurt.

 

Need more reasons?

Those are your reasons. Can't live in the past dude. Before a massive knee injury, Dion Lewis was full on utilized and ready to keep going. Your reasons given are what many FFer's are following like sheep, and are why I got Michel for almost nothing. He is the #2 rookie RB talent in the league this year. And since you don't know that, that is why you have so many reasons of why he will be nothing big.

[Donkey 34]

i grabbed him pretty late. Definitely worth a shot at that point. Not much risk at that point.

[lesjroza 70]

Last time the patriots drafted a running back in the first round it was Lawrence Maroney.

 

There are so many running backs on the team, they are the epitomy of running back by committee.

 

Shane Vereen was a second round pick, and he didn’t go that well.

 

Sony may not even play in week one.

 

Lastly, James White Dominates third down. His experience, leadership and talents will keep him in that spot unless he gets hurt.

 

Need more reasons?

 

 

If the bolded above is a primary consideration you may be missing the point of cost/risk/reward. Especially for dynasty/keeper leagues, but probably even for redraft.

 

There are always RBs that end up as a big part of a championship run in the 2nd half of the season after doing little to nothing in the first half.

 

If Michel doesn't have much production early it won't be a surprise after he spent recent time rehabbing, if he does make a splash early that would be the surprise. The cost prices in most of downside, but not enough for the potential upside.

 

At the same time I think James White who you mention is also likely undervalued on a risk-reward basis. You can price in a range of outcomes on multiple potential players for the same starting NFL position and find the upside of each is undervalued relative to the cost.

[seafoam1 1,878]

 

 

 

 

There are always RBs that end up as a big part of a championship run in the 2nd half of the season after doing little to nothing in the first half.

 

 

David Johnson anyone? When was his first start in his first year?

[justforbeer 39]

There are just too many rb’s in NE.

 

That is how they roll.

 

Betting on a different outcome is foolish in my opinion.

 

Dont get me wrong, Sony is talented, but it will be RBBC at best.

Take that to the bank.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

James

White and burkhead show.

[BobSanders_33 127]

We are talking about an 8th/9th round player that has potential to be a flex that shifts leagues. Lewis/Burkhead made a major impact in 2017. Blount helped teams win leagues in 2016. You have to take the perspective of the opposing options. At his ADP you could decide to go with Crabtree, Watkin, Chris Thompson, AP or Marlon Mack. Those guys won't win your league. Sony might. I play for championships.

[Byrdman5 104]

Dion Lewis finished 13th RB after not getting much work the first 4 games thanks the Gilislee experiment.

Year before Blount 8th RB.

I think Hill or Sony are going to provide that Lewis/Blount value this year for the Pats. But I put my money on Sony and drafted him.

[seafoam1 1,878]

James

White and burkhead show.

No chance.

[Raider 84 29]

It will soon be the Sony show. As long as he doesn't fumble the ball and the chance away..

[cousinal111 57]

It will soon be the Sony show. As long as he doesn't fumble the ball and the chance away..

Which was a big problem for him in the past, 12 in college.

[Kent 228]

I got him so late in my draft I can wait a long time to see him develop.

[seafoam1 1,878]

Which was a big problem for him in the past, 12 in college.

Ok. So he had 4234 yards and 39 TDs in college and averaged 3 fumbles a year.

Freshman year - 2 fumbles

Sophmore year - 5 fumbles

Junior year - 3 fumbles

Senior year - 2 fumbles

 

Oh, and only 5 lost fumbles. That actually means something.

 

Get over it.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Ok. So he had 4234 yards and 39 TDs in college and averaged 3 fumbles a year.

Freshman year - 2 fumbles

Sophmore year - 5 fumbles

Junior year - 3 fumbles

Senior year - 2 fumbles

 

Oh, and only 5 lost fumbles. That actually means something.

 

Get over it.

I disagree. A fumble is a fumble. It means something as far as the game itself, but it doesn't mean a player has less buttery fingers if the ball luckily bounces into his own teams arms.

 

I think it's definitely something to consider because fumbling usually doesn't just solve itself. Save me the story about Tiki Barber also. Belichik is not going to trust a rookie in this spot if isn't reliable in pass catching, holding onto the ball, and pass protection. I also believe that Bill trying to trade Brady made the team regard him less come draft day. This does not seem like a Bill move at all. It seems more like a Well if you are going to try to trade the best QB ever away, we are going to show you who has the real control.

[seafoam1 1,878]

I disagree. A fumble is a fumble. It means something as far as the game itself, but it doesn't mean a player has less buttery fingers if the ball luckily bounces into his own teams arms.

 

I think it's definitely something to consider because fumbling usually doesn't just solve itself. Save me the story about Tiki Barber also. Belichik is not going to trust a rookie in this spot if isn't reliable in pass catching, holding onto the ball, and pass protection. I also believe that Bill trying to trade Brady made the team regard him less come draft day. This does not seem like a Bill move at all. It seems more like a Well if you are going to try to trade the best QB ever away, we are going to show you who has the real control.

Leveon Bell has 7 fumbles in his last 2 years.

Todd Gurley has 10 fumbles in his last 3 years.

Melvin Gordon has 9 fumbles in his last 3 years.

 

I think these guys are considered pretty good.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Leveon Bell has 7 fumbles in his last 2 years.

Todd Gurley has 10 fumbles in his last 3 years.

Melvin Gordon has 9 fumbles in his last 3 years.

 

I think these guys are considered pretty good.

Comparing Michel to those guys is a little much imo. If a player can be that good, the fumbles are forgiven more easily. I'm not sold on Michel yet, so if he fumbles he better make up for it in other ways

[cousinal111 57]

Fumbling 12 times as a RB in college usually is something that has to be fixed/changed as a pro. I'm sure BB is obviously emphasizing this but it'll get him in the doghouse very quickly if he drops the ball early.

 

I like Michel, but the fumbling is a major concern.

[seafoam1 1,878]

Comparing Michel to those guys is a little much imo. If a player can be that good, the fumbles are forgiven more easily. I'm not sold on Michel yet, so if he fumbles he better make up for it in other ways

Sure, but these guys were fumbling in their early careers in the NFL as well. I mean, they all have to start out as rookies don't they? Of course you can't say a rookie is better than a very good pro (unless of course you are a Barkley fan, then you get free reign on it for some reason), but jeez 12 fumbles in 4 years in college where 5 of them came in his sophmore year is concerning? No.

[weepaws 2,452]

I’m more concern about him staying healthy enough to play.

 

Didn’t he have problems with injury’s in college?

[cousinal111 57]

Im more concern about him staying healthy enough to play.

 

Didnt he have problems with injurys in college?

Yes

[seafoam1 1,878]

I’m more concern about him staying healthy enough to play.

 

Didn’t he have problems with injury’s in college?

Here is your injury history you lazy ass. Want me to start looking up other RB injuries in college for you? I understand that you want player out of college that have zero injury history. So just stick to those then in your draft.

 

Dec 2, 2017 Non-NFL Knee Strain Grade 1 Michel injured his left knee in the SEC championship but was able to play in the National Semifinal a month later. Sep 9, 2017 Non-NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Michel missed 1 game with an ankle injury. Jul 4, 2016 Non-NFL Arm Forearm Fracture Michel fractured his left forearm in an ATV accident. Nov 8, 2014 Non-NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Michel missed 1 game with an ankle injury. Sep 27, 2014 Non-NFL Shoulder Scapula Fracture Michel missed 4 games with a broken shoulder blade.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

If there's anything Bill Belicheck has proven to us in the past is to expect the unexpected. Trusting anyone on the patriots not named Brady or Gronk is RISKY BUSINESS and I think we can all agree on that.

 

I actually always liked Chubb over Michel even coming out of college. I think Chubb is more talented overall. Michel is more of a plodder. But hey, just my opinion. I know Michel put up nice stats but that's running behind a monster SEC O-line.

 

Also to say the patriots never draft RBs is just wrong. They draft RBs about as frequently as any other team and sign undrafted free agents all of the time. Laurence Maroney was 1st round, he didn't last long. Vereen and Ridley were drafted early, Ridley had some decent seasons. BJGE and Bolden were undrafted. I think no matter what Belicheck is too good to ever commit to anyone, regardless of the price paid. I can almost guarantee that if Michel has fumble problems or can't protect TB12, he will not be on the field.

 

So yeah, there's a huge risk involved, especially for redraft but even for keeper and dynasty.

[snatchit 108]

oh god, some of you need to think for your self.... not what some writer says. The bottom line is James White and Burkhead cant hold his jock. Yes they have been productive, almost everyone is. Sony is special

[tanatastic 2,061]

Potentially big upside for a second half of the season breakout. There are always guys like that and grabbing or aquiring them is big value if you guess right.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

oh god, some of you need to think for your self.... not what some writer says. The bottom line is James White and Burkhead cant hold his jock. Yes they have been productive, almost everyone is. Sony is special

To each his own on evaluating talent. Saquon is special. Sony, ehhhh I disagree with you respectfully.

[seafoam1 1,878]

To each his own on evaluating talent. Saquon is special. Sony, ehhhh I disagree with you respectfully.

How is Barkley special and Michel not? That's easy to say for you because neither has done anything in the NFL and you have a bias towards the player that is popular.

 

good for you.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

How is Barkley special and Michel not? That's easy to say for you because neither has done anything in the NFL and you have a bias towards the player that is popular.

 

good for you.

Lol yeah youre right the NFL draft is just a big popularity contest. Baker probably sucks too.

[seafoam1 1,878]

Lol yeah youre right the NFL draft is just a big popularity contest. Baker probably sucks too.

Are you trying to tell me that every football player in the draft achieves in the NFL according to the position they are drafted in? So every first overall pick achieves more than every second overall pick and so on throughout the draft?

[LoOnAtIk 75]

To think that a player is Special just because he went in the first round? Ever heard of Trent Richardson? Plenty of RBs drafted in the first round have busted, BUT JUST BECAUSE HE WAS DRAFTED BY THE PATRIOTS HES IMMUNE FROM FAILURE?

 

Bill belicheck is an amazing coach but Im sure he can be wrong sometimes too...

 

Michel put up numbers in college but so did a bunch of other RBs last year, some that went undrafted. Ive seen enough from Michel, add in the NE headache, to have him firmly on my DND for redraft, and Im honestly not very high on him for keeper leagues too.

 

Patriots game plan from week to week can change so drastically. One week Michel might get 20 carries and the next week Brady might throw the ball 80 times with Michel seeing only 5-6 total snaps. In terms of just run% the patriots have to be towards the bottom of the league right?

 

So why would you want a rookie RB whos not a guaranteed starter on a team that barely runs the ball?

[seafoam1 1,878]

To think that a player is Special just because he went in the first round? Ever heard of Trent Richardson? Plenty of RBs drafted in the first round have busted.

 

Yep. And I'm sure you love Barkley.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Yep. And I'm sure you love Barkley.

Answer my question.

 

Why would you want a rookie who is not guaranteed touches, on a team that barely runs the ball?

[seafoam1 1,878]

Answer my question.

 

Why would you want a rookie who is not guaranteed touches, on a team that barely runs the ball?

I took Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Karim Hunt in their rookie years on the cheap and placed them under 4 year contracts in my league and it all worked out. Not to mention Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas as rookies for 4 years each mucho cheap. None of them at the time were guaranteed touches. This is the difference between those who follow the crowd and those who do their own work in FF. Good luck to you dude.