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Top ten RBs for 2010 - In 2011, Who will repeat / Who Will Not

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I’m entering this article called "Locks and Crocks" in an amateur football writer’s contest, so I would really appreciate your feedback both as to composition and content. Here goes:

 

 

Locks and Crocks

2010 Top Ten Running Backs and How They'll Fare in 2011

 

After recently reading an article by David Richards of CBS Sports about the top ten RBs of 2010, I decided to take a closer look at last year’s top ten fantasy RBs, and risk my own predictions as to who will be the 'Locks and Crocks' of 2011 based on their likelihood of repeating that 2010 top ten success. Richards' food-for-thought observations look back on the last 15 seasons, where he found that less than half of the running backs who finished in the Top 10 in total fantasy points were able to repeat the feat in the following year. Last year there were only three running backs able to repeat in the top ten. (I’ll keep you guessing for just a bit.)

 

Of course, one reason for the turn-over in the top ten is that every year there is a continuous supply of young studs who step up their game. Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis and LeSean McCoy virtually came from nowhere to move into the top 10 last year. Another big reason for RBs dropping out of the top ten is injuries. Injuries impact about 40% of previous years’ top ten RBs in any given year. Maurice Jones Drew and Ryan Grant were two notable ones who dropped out in 2010 due to lost playing time and ineffectiveness caused by injuries.

 

History says that only about 45% will repeat, but since I can't cut any of these guys in half, I’m going to round up to 50% and call the five most likely to repeat as my Locks. The Crocks will be the five most likely to be drafted higher than their eventual fall out of the top ten. And since I can't literally cut any of these guys in half, I just might have to slaughter some very sacred bell cows later in the process here.

 

The Locks: There are several commonalities here. First, all of these guys are young, and none have sustained a sigificant injury that they could not play through so far in their NFL career. Secondly, all of them play in well-rounded, multi-weapon offenses with quarterbacks who can take the pressure off of them. All are dual threats who excel as receivers out of the backfield.

 

Arian Foster, Houston Texans - Foster finished first in most scoring formats in 2010. Other than great talent, one important factor to his success was playing in a balanced offense so that defenses couldn’t key on the RB or ‘stack the box’. Houston fits the bill with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels around to take just the right amount of pressure off Foster. Foster has shown that he’s a great fit for Gary Kubiak’s system with the ability to make quick short-area adjustments and displaying exceptional hands out of the backfield. Since he admits playing all last year with a torn meniscus, I conclude he's just one tough son-of-a-biscus. I see no reason why he should drop in 2011.

 

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs- Charles is one of less than a handful of RBs that I believe have a legitimate shot at being THE top fantasy RB on 2011. Jamaal Charles can break the game open by scoring from anywhere on the field, and the Chiefs love to run the ball. Most importantly, Charles finally earned the confidence of Todd Haley. That alone will reward him with more carries in 2011. Thomas Jones (and RB Dexter McCluster) will likely still be around to keep Charles legs fresh enough, but Charles is now the ‘bell cow’. Again, we see a well rounded offense that will keep the defenses guessing so that they can’t load up to stop Charles.

 

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles - Once again, a critical reason that I pick McCoy to repeat is that he is a vital cog in a great offense, but he is far from the only weapon. With Vick, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, the cupboard is full. In addition to being targeted as a receiver more than any other RB in the NFL last year, McCoy really began making strides in his running game when he stopped dancing as much as he did in his first two years in the league. He now uses his short area quickness to his advantage inside, and runs with plenty of power for his smallish frame. McCoy is Westbrook, but the 2.0 version, and Philly has a perfect system for his talent. The Eagles will lose no offensive linemen to free agency, and they added 1st round draft pick G Danny Watkins.

 

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens - Probably the biggest knock on Rice’s game is his low touchdown totals. I expect that to change this year. Both McGahee and McClain have been TD vultures, and both are free agents who have said they are looking for situations where they can get more carries. I expect that Ray-Ray will finally be allowed to get his goal-line carries, and he has shown the ability to pick up the short yards when asked to do so. Add this opportunity to the fact that Rice has posted back-to-back 1,700-total-yard seasons, and barring injury he‘s another lock for the top 10.

 

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - Yet another dual threat RB, Forte was expected by many to have a diminished role in the new Mike Martz offense, especially given the putrid offensive line play. Instead, he became the stabilizing force of the offense and had more catches than any Bears‘ receiver. Forte has never missed an NFL game, and has been good for over 50 catches and 1400 total yards in each of his first three years in the NFL. Given the additional offensive stability I expect in the second year of the Martz system, and an offensive line that improved as the season progressed (and now with the addition of 1st round draft pick T Gabe Carimi), I project even bigger things for 2011. In 2010, Forte was also vultured FIVE times by Chester Taylor from the one yard line. I expect you can add at least three more TDs to Forte's totals this year.

 

 

The Crocks - I promised I'd slaughter some sacred bell cows - let's call them Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson. The fact that they represent two of the 3 RBs to repeat in the top 10 last year (the other was Ray Rice), doesn’t faze me in the least. Now I’m not saying they WON’T make the top ten; I’m just saying they are less likely to. As with the other three “Crockers’, there are some very good reasons for concern here. So let’s sharpen our butcher's knife and get started.

 

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - After placing well into the top 10 in each of his first four NFL seasons, "Mr. Automatic", (aka ADP), is not a lock to make the list again this year . With a punishing running style and a career average of 300 carries per year, the injury risk alone would be a cause for concern. But the primary reason Peterson does not repeat in the top 10 is the Vike’s unsettled offensive situation. It is a real possibility that the Vikings will open the season with rookie Christian Ponder under center. There is also a very good chance that Sidney Rice has taken his last snap as a Vike. Yes, Rice was lost for most of last year, but he is both a vital deep threat as well as an imposing target in the red zone. Percy Harvin is a great #2 underneath, but he's not the huge catch-radius field stretcher that Rice is. If Rice leaves and Ponder starts, it’s going to be a tough year for Peterson. The offensive line is anemic, and they could still possibly lose OT Ryan Cook to free agency. Vikes? Yikes! Pay attention to the situation, folks, this could get ugly.

 

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans - Again, the extremely unsettled nature of the offense makes Johnson a strong “Crock“ candidate. A new coaching staff and a new offensive scheme in a year with a lock-out off-season, as well as a possible Britt suspension and/or a CJ hold-out could mean that the Titans might well be re-named the Titanics. I'm not all that confident Tennessee will find a capable QB. Locker as the starting QB reminds me of the old "Saturday Night Live" television show: he's one of the not-ready-for-prime-time players. Defenses will have little to worry about from the Titans passing game. Tennessee fans may be chanting “bring back Vince” when opposing defenses stack the box and key on Chris Johnson in 2011.

 

Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns - It often appeared that Hillis was virtually the entire offense for Cleveland last year. He has one of the NFL's most punishing running styles, and with over 330 touches, Hillis began to wear down from the overload. He averaged only 3.8 YPC over the last 8 games of the season. In 2011, just like last year, the rest of the Brown’s offense clearly isn’t going to scare anyone. If his workload doesn't diminish, you would expect an injury at some point. But you SHOULD expect his workload to be reduced, perhaps quite drastically. Shurmer, Holmgren, and Heckert have all said they want to see a TWO RB backfield for 2011. So even if he stays healthy, he can also expect to end up somewhere south of 60 less touches for 2011 - just maybe, far south of last year's production.

 

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders - As mentioned above, about 40% of the non-repeaters to the top 10 RB list are due to injury in any given year. The risk with McFadden is almost all injury related here. In his three seasons in the NFL, McFadden has never played in more than 13 games in a season due to a myriad of injury problems. His offensive line of Veldheer-Loper-Wiz II/Satele-Campbell-Barksdale is a weak unit with a lot of question marks ( they might lose veteran G Robert Gallery to free agency), and a tougher 2011 schedule against the run are also causes for concern.

 

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers - This is one I struggled with. Mendenhall has been virtually injury proof, and he plays in a diverse offense with a great surrounding cast. He placed 8th on the top ten RB list last year, but he has a lower ceiling than the others because he is just not going to get much additional production as a receiver. His 2010 stats were also helped by 13 rushing TDs, a figure that he may be hard pressed to duplicate in 2011. He could very possibly put up identical total yards as last year and still drop out of the top 10.

 

But wait - here's a bonus! I almost overlooked the fact that in standard fantasy scoring, Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner was in a dead-heat TIE for 10th place in 2010. So you non-PPR fantasy owners get a bonus. That also means in a standard scoring format, I CAN line up closely with the historical 55 percent 'Crock ratio' without the necessity of cutting a player in half!

 

Turner is now officially a crock. (YOU can twitter him and tell him that; I'm not going to.) The Falcons probably stand to lose two out of three starting free agent offensive linemen (G Justin Blalock, T Tyson Clabo, G Harvey Dahl) and their attack figures to change to a more pass-oriented offense. Turner is, of course, a non-factor in the passing game. Turner is now 29 years old and his 245 lb body is now built solely for power. He will still be the primary running back, but his days as “The Burner” are behind him. Jacquizz Rodgers will be the new burner of the Atlanta backfield.

 

I hope I didn't butcher my predictions too badly for the 2011 Locks and Crocks from last year‘s top 10 (+1) running backs. Based on that historical 55% top ten drop-out rate for top ten running backs, you just might be wise to consider some of the other very safe 'locks' that I could have chosen to write about, such as Andre, Calvin, Roddy or Mr. Rodgers for your 1st round selection, instead of one of the “Stud” RBs that will be on your board when it is your turn to pick.

 

 

As I mentioned, I’d really like your feedback from both a standpoint of content and composition. TIA - mfm

 

Note: I corrected and edited based (so far) on feedback through Patmos' outstanding edit below.

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nice idea. the "lock" and "crock" theme is catchy.

 

first things first. LeSean McCoy. Aside from that you have a little editing to do, such as this sentence

Michael Turner is officially is now officially a Crock

 

I kind of disagree, as noted in the other thread, with ADP and CJ as "crocks". But your points are well made. I just happen to see both as young enough, healthy enough and with enough opportunity for touches to remain top ten "locks". I don't think their QB situations will be drastically worse than what they have dealt with in other years of their careers. Also, the Titans line was the worst statistical run blocking line last year so I would guess it can only improve.

 

My last comment is that your intro becomes a little confusing. Maybe too cutesy at first? I understand what you're saying regarding deciding who to categorize but I think you take a little long getting to the conclusion.

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Honesty here. My first thought is it's too much. In the fantasy world you want news, predictions, insight now! Don't make me find it, just give it to me.

 

The read: Regardless of whether or not I agree I can appreciate the facts and opinions mix. It's one thing to give your opinion, but to back it up with facts and/or new additions (coaches, linemen, ect...)makes it a better read and can help form opinions, which is what a good article should help do. It's definitly a good read. The only thing I didn't care for was the intro, but I'm not sure if that's part of the article or just for us here at FFToday?

 

As WW said, there are some typo's that need fixed. A few mispelled words and minor other adjustments. Good job, but I would expect nothing less from you!

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Looks pretty good to me. I disagree that Chris Johnson will tank this year, because he has dealt pretty well with playing on a crappy team for the past couple of seasons. But a lot of people are down on him this year so I am apparently in the minority.

 

One other thing is, in regards to Rashard Mendenhall, I would mention that he just isn't that good either. He had a pretty good statisical season last year (aided by a high TD total, as you recognize), but he only rushed for 3.9 yards per carry. My thinking is that the Steelers may get someone else involved in the ground game next year, although it should be noted that they did not draft a RB as many expected them to.

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I'm entering this article called "Locks and Crocks" in an amateur football writer's contest, so I would really appreciate your feedback both as to composition and content. Here goes:

 

 

Thinking about the topic - "Locks and Crocks", I started to feel like the mosquito in the nudist colony - I knew what to do, but I just didn't know where to begin. Should I pick the really low-hanging fruit and identify five real locks like Aaron Rodgers, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Tom Brady and Jason Witten, and five Crock candidates (You only name 4?) that I could make a good case for such as Knowshon Moreno, Malcom Floyd, Mike Sims-Walker and Jabar Gaffney? For days I pondered who I should categorize, because I long ago recognized that anything can happen with any player in any given year.

 

Most would have put an easy 'Crock' label last year on 'Fat' Mike Williams (he of the miraculous resurrection), Brandon Lloyd, or Michael Vick's (all 3 should be possessive: Williams'...Lloyd's...) chances of amounting to anything in Philly (remember when Kevin Kolb was the undisputed starter?)

 

After reading an article by David Richards of CBS Sports about the top ten RBs of 2010, I decided to take a riskier road and predict the Locks and Crocks of last year's top ten fantasy RBs. Richards made several food-for-thought observations. Looking back to the last 15 seasons, less than half of the running backs who finished in the Top 10 in total Fantasy points repeated in the following year. Last year the number of running backs to repeat was only 3 out of ten. (I'll keep you guessing for awhile.)

 

One reason is that every year there is a continuous supply of young studs who step up their game. Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis and LeShon (LeSean)McCoy virtually came from no-where (nowhere) to move into the top 10. A big reason for RBs dropping out of the top ten is, of course, injuries. Injuries impact about 40% of previous years' top ten RBs in any given year. Maurice Jones Drew and Ryan Grant were two notable ones who dropped out in 2010 due to lost time and effectiveness (your point on lost time makes sense...not sure what point is being made on effectiveness - could you mean ineffectiveness?).

 

Although history says that 45% will repeat, I'm going to round up to 50% and call the five most likely candidates my Locks. The Crocks will be the ones most likely to be drafted higher than their eventual fall out of the top ten. I think you will be surprised that some very sacred cows will be slaughtered here.

 

The Locks: There are several commonalities here. First, all of these guys arey (delete the y) young, and none have sustained anything but minor nicks throughout their NFL career so far. Secondly, all of them play in well-rounded, multi-weapon offenses with Q(do not capitalize)uarterbacks who can take the pressure off of them. All of them are dual threats who excel as receivers out of the backfield.

 

Arian Foster, Houston Texans - Foster finished first in most scoring formats in 2010, and I see no good reason why he should drop much. One important factor is playing in a balanced offense so that defenses can't key on the RB or 'stack the box'. Houston fit's (delete the apostrophe) the bill with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels to take just the right amount of pressure off Foster. Foster has shown that he's a great fit for Gary Kubiak's system with the ability to make quick short-area adjustments and exceptional hands out of the backfield. -- As a technical reader, I would be interested in having you address the one issue that seems to crop up regarding Foster: his number of touches last year counter the stat that says 300+ touches are rarely followed with another good year?

 

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs- Charles is one of a small handfull (handful - only one "L") of RBs that have a legitimate shot at being THE top fantasy RB. Jamaal Charles can break the game open by scoring from anywhere on the field., (delete the period) and the Chiefs love to run the ball. Most importantly, Charles finally earned the confidence of Todd Haley. That alone will reward him with more carries in 2011. Thomas Jones (and RB Dexter McCluster) will likely still be around to keep Charles legs fresh enough, but Charles is now the 'bell cow'. Again, we see a well rounded offense that will keep the defenses guessing so that they can't load up to stop Charles.

 

LeShon (LeSean) McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles - Again, a critical reason that I pick McCoy to repeat is that he is a vital cog in a great offense, but he is far from the only weapon. With Vick, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, the cupboard is full. In addition to being targeted as a receiver more than any other RB in the NFL last year, McCoy made huge strides in his running game. He doesn't dance as much as he did his first two years, and now uses more short area quickness with decent power for his size. McCoy is Westbrook 2.0 and Philly is a perfect system for his talent. The Eagles have no free agent offensive linemen, and added 1st round G Danny Watkins to thier (their) line.

 

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens - Probably the biggest knock on Rice's game is his low touchdown totals. I expect that to change this year. Both McGahee and McClain have been TD vultures, and both are free agents who have said that (proper grammar says to delete "that") they are looking for situations where they can get more carries. I expect that Ray-Ray will finally be allowed to get his goal-line carries, and he has shown the ability to pick up the short yards when asked to do so. So add this opportunity to the fact that Rice has posted back-to-back 1,700-total-yard seasons, and barring injury, he's another lock for the top 10.

 

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - Another dual threat RB, many (improper grammar: the name Forte needs to follow the comma...you need to re-word this something like -- Another dual-threat RB, Forte was expected by many to have a diminished role) expected Forte's role to diminish in the new Mike Martz's offense, especially given the putrid offensive line play.

Instead, he became the stabilizing force of the offense and had more catches than any Bears' receiver. Forte has never missed an NFL game, and has been good for over 50 catches and 1400 total yards in each of his forst (first) three years in the NFL. Given the stability I expect in (insert "the') second year of the Martz offense and an offensive line that improved as the season progressed (and now added 1st round T Gabe Carimi), I project at least three more TDs and even bigger things for 2011.

 

 

The Crocks - Here's where I slaughter some 'sacred bell cows' - namely Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson. The fact that they represent two of the 3 RBs to repeat in the top 10 (the other was Ray Rice), doesn't faze me in the least. As with the other three "Crockers', there are some very good reasons for concern here. So let's get started with the butcher knife.

 

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - Peterson has made the top 10 list in each of his first four NFL seasons. With a punishing running style and an average of 300 carries per year, the injury risk alone would be a cause for concern. But the primary reason Peterson does not repeat in the top 10 is the Vike's unsettled offensive situation. It is (insert "a") real possibility that the Vikings will open the season with rookie Christian Ponder under center. There is also a very good chance that Sidney Rice has taken his last snap as a Vike. Yes, Rice was lost for most of last year, but he is a vital deep and redzone (red zone - two words) threat. (I would look to re-word this: but he is both a vital deep threat as well as an imposing target in the red zone) Percy Harvin is a great #2 underneath, but he's not the huge catch-radius field stretcher that Rice is (not sure here...huge catch/radius field stretcher?). If Rice leaves and Ponder starts, it's going to be a tough year for Peterson. The offensive line is anemic, and they could possibly also lose OT Ryan Cook to free agency. Vikes? Yikes! All around, this is not a pretty picture.

 

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans - Again, the extremely unsettled nature of the offense makes Johnson a strong "Crock" candidate. A new coaching staff (which brings with it a new offensive scheme) and offensive scheme in a year with a lock-out off-season (not sure there is a hyphen here), and a possible Britt suspension are just for openers. I'm betting Tennessee doesn't find a capable QB. Locker as the starting QB, (delete comma) would spell disaster for Johnson. IMO Locker just isn't ready for prime-time. Defenses will have little to worry about from the Titans passing game. Titans fans may be chanting "bring back Vince" when opposing defenses stack the box and key on Johnson .

 

Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns - Again as last year, the rest of the Brown's offense doesn't scare anyone, and with over 330 touches last year, Hillis clearly wore down from overwork, as evidenced by his less than pedestrian (add hyphens: less-than-pedestrian) 3.8 YPC over the last 8 games of the season..(delete one period) Hillis has one of the most punishing running styles in the NFL, so you can almost expect an injury at some point. But even if he stays healthy, you can also expect at least 60 less touches. He WAS the entire RB offense for Cleveland last year. Shurmer, Holmgren, and Heckert have all said they want a TWO RB backfield for 2011. --my additional thought - I personally like him again this year but I won't draft him because he faces both Baltimore and Pittsburgh during the playoffs

 

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders - As mentioned above, about 40% of the non-repeaters to the top 10 RB list are due to injury. The risk is almost all injury-related here (delete hyphen). In his three seasons in the NFL, McFadden has never played in more than 13 games in a season due to a myriad of injury problems. His offensive line of Veldheer-Loper-Wiz II/Satele-Campbell-Barksdale is a weak unit with a lot of question marks (they could lose veteran G Robert Gallery to free agency), and a tougher schedule against the run are also causes for concern.

 

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers - This one i (capitalize) struggled over. Mendenhall has been injury-proof (delete hyphen...note: hyphens are for words combined to create a single adjective, e.g., a two-headed monster), and plays in a diverse offense with a great surrounding cast. He made (replace "made 8th place on the top ten list" with "finished 8th") 8th place on the top ten list last year, but he has a lower ceiling than the others because he is just not much of a threat as a receiver. His 2010 stats were also helped by 13 rushing TDs, a figure that he may be hard pressed to duplicate in 2011. He could very possibly put up identical total yards with (replace "with" with "as")last year and still drop out of the top 10. -- possible additional note: ppg significantly decreased when Big Ben returned

 

But wait - it is bonus time! In standard fantasy scoring, Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner was (in) a dead-heat TIE for the (delete "the") 10th place in 2010. So here's a bonus for you non-PPR fantasy owners. In line with the historical 45 percent Crock ratio, Michael Turner is now officially a Crock. The Falcons stand to lose two out of three starting free agent offensive linemen (G Justin Blalock, T Tyson Clabo, G Harvey Dahl) and their attack figures to change to a more pass-oriented offense. Turner is, of course, an ("a" not "an") non-factor in the passing game. Turner is now 29 years old and his 245 lb body is now built solely for power. He will still be the primary running back, but his days as "The Burner" are behind him. Jacquizz Rodgers will be the new burner of the Atlanta backfield.

 

So that's my list of Locks and Crocks regarding last year's top 10 (+1) running backs. Based on less than a 50% repeat rate, you just might be wise to consider Andre, Calvin, Roddy or Mr. Rodgers for your 1st round pick instead of one of the "Stud" RBs that are on your board.

 

 

As I mentioned, I'd really like your feedback from both a standpoint of content and composition. TIA - mfm

 

MFM:

 

If it was anybody but you, I would not have taken the time to play editor! Your content and style are excellent, and provide for easy reading while adding substance to your opinions - that's a recipe for success! I put in bold italics my grammatical editing...

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BTW, I think the intro is excellent, and just the right amount of wording. Good writing puts the reader inside your head, and you have done that. I don't think it's too cutesy or too confusing...it's good writing. You have properly told a brief story as to what prompted you to write the piece, and you kept it entertaining while building it up -- keep the intro for sure!

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Thanks to all who contributed comments so far. Thanks especially to Patmos for his excellent editing.

 

Based on the feedback so far, I drastically cut down my long-winded preamble and edited out several spelling and grammatical faux pas.

 

Of course I intend to win this thing :) so please keep the comments coming.

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i like the new intro. i fully believe that the meat of the article should lie in your choices and their explanations. The intro was just too lengthy, imo. It was a bit matthew berry-ish for my taste but not funny like he can sometimes be.

 

i do think its smart to make the reader feel a personal connection to your thoughts, and you can still achieve that without droning on.

 

i might still work a bit on the intro. I don't like leading off with Dave Richards. almost makes it sound like without him, you wouldnt have written the piece.

 

but the body of the article is very good. :thumbsup:

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Patmos, my kids may have some reports due this year in school. I need your email address so you can proof read everything to ensure an A :thumbsup:

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I modified my opening before I read Patmos' comment. I think I still kept a little of the personal touch. But the funny thing is that in the original opener - before I settled on the 10 top RBs idea - the fifth "crock" I thought of writing about was none other than Cedric Benson. Truth! :)

 

BTW, I took another look at the contest rules, and they also want to see the writers sense of humor come through. So I edited in what little sick humor I possess.

 

Enjoy and keep the comments coming. Despite Patmos' best efforts, I'm sure it ain't purfict yet. (It sure is nice to get back to my natural writing style).

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Excellent read. Flows nicley. Informative, yet cutting edge......without the same tired, white-washed, watered-down, and standard dribble you read elsewhere.

 

Post-edited edition looks structurally and grammitically sound.

 

No surprise, I would have divided them exactly the same way, with the possible exception of Hillis (whom I have an admitted personal bias for). If Hardesty can do enough to keep him fresh, one should never underestimate this mans sheer and palpable drive to move the chains and to cross the goal line. Simply put, he is a football player. When fresh, he will not be denied. He is a beast.

 

Good luck soldier.

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I would by no means call Forte a lock....i would call AP and CJ locks...just too important to their teams...Assuming no injuries, the top 6 are locks....AP, CJ, McCoy, Rice, Charles, Foster....

 

the other two I would add to have the best shot are S-Jax and Gore.

 

the final two are tough...In addition to Turner, McFadden, Mendenhall & Hillis, ,I would throw the following sleepers in the mix....Ingram, DeAngelo, Ryan Williams & Bradshaw. I feel that Ingram will take the job and DeAngelo will go to Denver and both will be beasts.

 

The players that i feel are most likely to be bounced from top 10 are Hillis (cuz i dont trust they will use him like they did) & McFadden (cuz you can fairly accurately predict he wont play all 16)

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Very good article. This is just a minor thing but in the McCoy writeup your sentence about him not "dancing as much as he did in his first two years" seems to be referring to his play last year, which was actually his 2nd year. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but I think that should read he didn't "dance as much as he did in his rookie year."

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I'd rewrite the entire Jamaal Charles section. It's seems like too much fluff and not enough facts.

 

In fact, let's add a few facts to put some meat to this. How about something like this...

 

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs - Charles has a legitimate shot at being THE top fantasy RB this year. He showed off his play-making ability last season averaging an eye-popping 6.4 yards per carry while catching 45 passes for 468 yards earning a trip to the Pro Bowl, but, most importantly, Charles finally earned the confidence of Todd Haley which should translate to more touches for a Kansas City team that loves to run the ball. The Chiefs have added Dexter McCluster who should see most of his time at kick returner, and should still have Thomas Jones (celebrating his 33rd birthday this year), but Charles is now the workhorse on an offense well rounded enough to keep defenses from loading up to stop Charles.

 

If you want to perserve the original, I'd make the following changes

 

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs - Charles is one of a small ("small handful" is redundant) handful of RBs that have a legitimate shot at being THE top fantasy RB. Jamaal Charles can break the a ("the" refers to a specific game, "a" is the general form) game open by scoring from anywhere on the field, and the Chiefs love to run the ball. Most importantly, Charles finally gained the confidence of Todd Haley. That alone will reward him with more carries in 2011. Thomas Jones (and RB Dexter McCluster) will likely still be around to keep Charles legs fresh enough, but Charles is now the 'bell cow'. Again Like the Texans, (without a specific reference to Houston's offense as a well-rounded offense this doesn't read well) we see a well rounded offense that will keep the defenses guessing so that they can't load up to stop Charles.

 

Also, the sentence, "That alone will reward him with more carries in 2011," reads kind of crappy. You are basically saying The act of earning Haley's trust will reward Charles with more carries. I guess it works, but in reality what you want to say is Haley will reward Charles with more touches because Charles earned Haley's trust. I'm not suggesting you write it like that. I'm just saying it reads weird because you are saying the act of earning Haley's trust has the ability to give someone something. It might work better if you say, "Most importantly, Charles finally gained the confidence of Todd Haley. That alone will earn him more carries in 2011."

 

By the way, I don't necessarily think Charles is going to blow up next year. His schedule last year was astoundingly easy. I mean it was ridiculous. I mean it was criminally, ridiculously, stupidly easy. If San Diego wasn't in the Chiefs' division, Kansas City might have ran for 5000 yards as a team. This year he gets the AFC East and the NFC North plus the Colts and the Steelers. If he gets 320 total touches, but his average per touch drops down from 7 yards to 5 yards which would bring him into the Ahmad Bradshaw (4.8 ypt) and the Ray Rice (4.8 ypt) range which are similar backs in similar situations. That would actually have him end up with 300 less yards from scrimmage than last year, and I think we can all agree that there is a point of diminshing returns with all runningbacks in the NFL, so expecting him to keep that pace is a little unrealistic.

 

In fact, here are the 20 best yards per touch performances of runningbacks with over 300 total touches over the last 5 years

 

Player			Tm	Year	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	YScm	RRTD	total touches	yards per touch
Chris Johnson*+		TEN	2009	358	2006	14	5.6	50	503	10.1	2	2509	16	408	6.149509804
Ray Rice*		BAL	2009	254	1339	7	5.3	78	702	9	1	2041	8	332	6.147590361
Brian Westbrook		PHI	2006	240	1217	7	5.1	77	699	9.1	4	1916	11	317	6.044164038
Frank Gore*		SFO	2006	312	1695	8	5.4	61	485	8	1	2180	9	373	5.844504021
LaDainian Tomlinson*+	SDG	2006	348	1815	28	5.2	56	508	9.1	3	2323	31	404	5.75
Brian Westbrook*+	PHI	2007	278	1333	7	4.8	90	771	8.6	5	2104	12	368	5.717391304
Arian Foster*+		HOU	2010	327	1616	16	4.9	66	604	9.2	2	2220	18	393	5.648854962
Tiki Barber*		NYG	2006	327	1662	5	5.1	58	465	8	0	2127	5	385	5.524675325
Steven Jackson*		STL	2006	346	1528	13	4.4	90	806	9	3	2334	16	436	5.353211009
Steve Slaton		HOU	2008	268	1282	9	4.8	50	377	7.5	1	1659	10	318	5.216981132
LaDainian Tomlinson*+	SDG	2007	315	1474	15	4.7	60	475	7.9	3	1949	18	375	5.197333333
Adrian Peterson*	MIN	2010	283	1298	12	4.6	36	341	9.5	1	1639	13	319	5.137931034
Adrian Peterson*+	MIN	2009	314	1383	18	4.4	43	436	10.1	0	1819	18	357	5.095238095
Peyton Hillis		CLE	2010	270	1177	11	4.4	61	477	7.8	2	1654	13	331	4.996978852
Maurice Jones-Drew*	JAX	2010	299	1324	5	4.4	34	317	9.3	2	1641	7	333	4.927927928
Frank Gore		SFO	2007	260	1102	5	4.2	53	436	8.2	1	1538	6	313	4.913738019
Adrian Peterson*+	MIN	2008	363	1760	10	4.8	21	125	6	0	1885	10	384	4.908854167
Maurice Jones-Drew*	JAX	2009	312	1391	15	4.5	53	374	7.1	1	1765	16	365	4.835616438
Larry Johnson*+		KAN	2006	416	1789	17	4.3	41	410	10	2	2199	19	457	4.811816193
Ray Rice		BAL	2010	307	1220	5	4	63	556	8.8	1	1776	6	370	4.8
Ahmad Bradshaw		NYG	2010	276	1235	8	4.5	47	314	6.7	0	1549	8	323	4.795665635

 

In fact, Jamaal Charles' 2010 performance was such an anamoly that he was averaging almost a full yard per touch more than the closest guy even if I allow players down to 200 touches to be included. Basically last year's performance was a gigantic statistical outlier.

 

Player			Tm	Year	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	YScm	RRTD	total touches	yards per touch
Jamaal Charles*+	KAN	2010	230	1467	5	6.4	45	468	10.4	3	1935	8	275	7.036363636
Derrick Ward		NYG	2008	182	1025	2	5.6	41	384	9.4	0	1409	2	223	6.31838565
Adrian Peterson*	MIN	2007	238	1341	12	5.6	19	268	14.1	1	1609	13	257	6.260700389
Darren McFadden		OAK	2010	223	1157	7	5.2	47	507	10.8	3	1664	10	270	6.162962963
Jamaal Charles		KAN	2009	190	1120	7	5.9	40	297	7.4	1	1417	8	230	6.160869565
Chris Johnson*+		TEN	2009	358	2006	14	5.6	50	503	10.1	2	2509	16	408	6.149509804
Ray Rice*		BAL	2009	254	1339	7	5.3	78	702	9	1	2041	8	332	6.147590361
Brian Westbrook		PHI	2006	240	1217	7	5.1	77	699	9.1	4	1916	11	317	6.044164038
LeSean McCoy		PHI	2010	207	1080	7	5.2	78	592	7.6	2	1672	9	285	5.866666667
Frank Gore*		SFO	2006	312	1695	8	5.4	61	485	8	1	2180	9	373	5.844504021
LaDainian Tomlinson*+	SDG	2006	348	1815	28	5.2	56	508	9.1	3	2323	31	404	5.75
Brian Westbrook*+	PHI	2007	278	1333	7	4.8	90	771	8.6	5	2104	12	368	5.717391304
Arian Foster*+		HOU	2010	327	1616	16	4.9	66	604	9.2	2	2220	18	393	5.648854962
Matt Forte		CHI	2010	237	1069	6	4.5	51	547	10.7	3	1616	9	288	5.611111111
DeAngelo Williams*	CAR	2009	216	1117	7	5.2	29	252	8.7	0	1369	7	245	5.587755102
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	2008	273	1515	18	5.5	22	121	5.5	2	1636	20	295	5.545762712
Tiki Barber*		NYG	2006	327	1662	5	5.1	58	465	8	0	2127	5	385	5.524675325
Fred Taylor		JAX	2006	231	1146	5	5	23	242	10.5	1	1388	6	254	5.464566929
Fred Taylor*		JAX	2007	223	1202	5	5.4	9	58	6.4	0	1260	5	232	5.431034483
Frank Gore*		SFO	2009	229	1120	10	4.9	52	406	7.8	3	1526	13	281	5.430604982

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MFM, I thought this was a very good read. I really like the idea of "Locks and Crocks." It just works. I don't really have too much to add that others haven't already told you, but good luck in the contest. :cheers:

 

On a side note, I too am down on Adrian Peterson this year and also Chris Johnson to an extent. To this point I really didn't know how to strongly justify my position (other than ADP's lower catch total in PPR leagues), but it has just been a gut instinct as the season/drafts approach. This article did a very good job to justify that "instinct" in my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked at all if either or both of them finish in the top 10 again, I just don't like their situations very much.

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Like the article MFM - good luck in the contest. And I want to add great job everyone for the excellent constructive feedback helping out a fellow board member. Nice to see.

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Patmos, my kids may have some reports due this year in school. I need your email address so you can proof read everything to ensure an A :thumbsup:

 

Try fiverr.com... you can get anything proofread for 5 bucks... :D

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I agree. This year I feel safer with a workhorse running back on a good possibly playoff bound team, which is why I have rice possibly number 2 behind foster and I like McCoy a bit more than Charles.

 

Nobody that was an excellent post. The chiefs got embarrasses by the ravens in the playoffs and I bet we see more of the same this year. They are more a 6-10 squad than 10-6. Houston takes their playoff spot IMO.

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I'd like to make a quick case in favor of Darren McFadden as a guy likely to repeat. I doubt it will change your opinion, but here goes...

 

1. I don't really agree with the premise that he's much more likely to miss time with injury than anyone else. He never missed games at Arkansas despite getting a ridiculous amount of carries. He is 23 years old and those missed games as a 21-22 year old mean he has less wear and tear on his body.

 

2. Even if you do accept the premise that he is more likely than other RBs to miss some games, he has already proven that he can be so great that he can still put up huge top 10 numbers despite missing time. It's amazing what he did in only 13 games last year. In 13 games, McFadden basically equaled 16 games worth of production from guys like Jamaal Charles (scored only 12 points more than DMC), Ray Rice (6 points more) and Chris Johnson (4 points more). He finished 6 points ahead of Matt Forte despite the 3 missed games. He scored over 4 ppg more than Forte (25% more points per game), which is a really significant amount. He even beat J. Charles/R. Rice/C. Johnson by approx. 3 ppg.

 

3. Perhaps irrelevant to the article, but even if you do assume that DMC misses 2-4 games again, you can grab Michael Bush late as a handcuff this year. In the 3 games McFadden missed last year Bush scored 55 points. If you owned both and just started Bush the 3 games when DMC was out, you'd have scored 312 points in PPR. That would have been good for #2 by a wide margin (McCoy was next highest at 284). Michael Bush's current ADP is #142, so its not like it costs you much....

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I'd like to make a quick case in favor of Darren McFadden as a guy likely to repeat. I doubt it will change your opinion, but here goes...

 

1. I don't really agree with the premise that he's much more likely to miss time with injury than anyone else. He never missed games at Arkansas despite getting a ridiculous amount of carries. He is 23 years old and those missed games as a 21-22 year old mean he has less wear and tear on his body.

 

2. Even if you do accept the premise that he is more likely than other RBs to miss some games, he has already proven that he can be so great that he can still put up huge top 10 numbers despite missing time. It's amazing what he did in only 13 games last year. In 13 games, McFadden basically equaled 16 games worth of production from guys like Jamaal Charles (scored only 12 points more than DMC), Ray Rice (6 points more) and Chris Johnson (4 points more). He finished 6 points ahead of Matt Forte despite the 3 missed games. He scored over 4 ppg more than Forte (25% more points per game), which is a really significant amount. He even beat J. Charles/R. Rice/C. Johnson by approx. 3 ppg.

 

3. Perhaps irrelevant to the article, but even if you do assume that DMC misses 2-4 games again, you can grab Michael Bush late as a handcuff this year. In the 3 games McFadden missed last year Bush scored 55 points. If you owned both and just started Bush the 3 games when DMC was out, you'd have scored 312 points in PPR. That would have been good for #2 by a wide margin (McCoy was next highest at 284). Michael Bush's current ADP is #142, so its not like it costs you much....

 

 

Some very good points. I do like McFadden. He has a ton of talent. The injuries are the only reason I don't really want to draft him as a first rounder. But also remember that almost 1/3rd of his fantasy points in PPR leagues came in TWO weeks (against two awful defenses- Denver and Jacksonville) last season. In standard scoring over 1/3rd of his points came in those same two weeks.

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I can remember the owner of McFadden crying all year last year. He really only got value out of McFadden for THREE games - McFadden scored 101 of his fantasy points in ONLY three games and the other 107 points in the OTHER ten games he played in.

 

Losing Cable may add another question mark to the equation...

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I can remember the owner of McFadden crying all year last year. He really only got value out of McFadden for THREE games - McFadden scored 101 of his fantasy points in ONLY three games and the other 107 points in the OTHER ten games he played in.

 

Losing Cable may add another question mark to the equation...

 

I assume you are talking about standard scoring here, otherwise the numbers don't make much sense. This thread was specifically about top 10 in ppr...

 

People use the "3 big game" argument. However, in ppr last year, DMC scored at least 10 points in every game he played except 1 (at Pittsburgh). That's about as consistent as you can get. I think its fair to say that he only hurt you in 1 game and the Steelers do that to a lot of RBs.

 

Those 3 big games are simply what separated him from the mediocre fantasy backs and made him elite. How many other players have the potential to pretty much win you 3 fantasy games all on their own?

 

Besides, its not like he's never going to play the Broncos defense again, he comes right out of the gates week 1 against them...

 

As for coaching, he has one of the most RB-friendly OCs in the league in Al Saunders. Remember when Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson were dominating fantasy football back in the heyday of the Chiefs RB dominated #1 in the league offense? Saunders was the OC. Prior to being hired by the Raiders this offseason, he was coming off a 2 year stint as offensive consultant for the Ravens where the offense was built around Ray Rice who had 141 receptions in those 2 years...

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I assume you are talking about standard scoring here, otherwise the numbers don't make much sense. This thread was specifically about top 10 in ppr...

 

People use the "3 big game" argument. However, in ppr last year, DMC scored at least 10 points in every game he played except 1 (at Pittsburgh). That's about as consistent as you can get. I think its fair to say that he only hurt you in 1 game and the Steelers do that to a lot of RBs.

 

Those 3 big games are simply what separated him from the mediocre fantasy backs and made him elite. How many other players have the potential to pretty much win you 3 fantasy games all on their own?

 

Besides, its not like he's never going to play the Broncos defense again, he comes right out of the gates week 1 against them...

 

As for coaching, he has one of the most RB-friendly OCs in the league in Al Saunders. Remember when Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson were dominating fantasy football back in the heyday of the Chiefs RB dominated #1 in the league offense? Saunders was the OC. Prior to being hired by the Raiders this offseason, he was coming off a 2 year stint as offensive consultant for the Ravens where the offense was built around Ray Rice who had 141 receptions in those 2 years...

 

Good post :thumbsup:

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Nice thread :doublethumbsup: Was trying to find something i dont agree with and dont think i can. :doh: Maybe Forte but in PPR he is pretty dam solid.

 

I really like the top 4 backs: Foster, Charles, McCoy and Rice. With that said id still have a hard time passing up on AP or CJ in #2 or #3 hole for the other guys. But that is also another + because id be happy with any of the those 6 backs in standard scoring and in PPR throw Forte in there for 7. In majority of years i hate picking in the 5-7 range but i think id rather have the 5th, 6th or 7th pick this year. Im sure my opinion of that will change 100 times by draft time though.

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As a hopeful Vikings fan. I would say that I think you have ADP position correctly.

 

You have a new HC, a new OC, a new QB (whether rookie or veteran not yet on this roster), and post CBA FA issues at WR amont other things.

 

This offseason is either not going to help him and his stats or its going help him alot.

The players of all teams are not really getting time to study and bond as in the past.

This is bad for an Oline that didn't gel well last year improve this season.

Only hope would be that this is also bad for defense in knowing how to stack the box too. (though not as much)

 

That stated, I think that many FF players will buy more into the brand, hype, potential, and history of ADP and want to get him as close to 1 as is possible. So I predict that he will be drafted in the top 10, along with CJ. Conservative value point at 5-7 for both, and wishful value point at #1 for either.

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Anything else change on your list due to the cap space/salary change?

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I assume you are talking about standard scoring here, otherwise the numbers don't make much sense. This thread was specifically about top 10 in ppr...

 

People use the "3 big game" argument. However, in ppr last year, DMC scored at least 10 points in every game he played except 1 (at Pittsburgh). That's about as consistent as you can get. I think its fair to say that he only hurt you in 1 game and the Steelers do that to a lot of RBs.

 

Those 3 big games are simply what separated him from the mediocre fantasy backs and made him elite. How many other players have the potential to pretty much win you 3 fantasy games all on their own?

 

Besides, its not like he's never going to play the Broncos defense again, he comes right out of the gates week 1 against them...

 

As for coaching, he has one of the most RB-friendly OCs in the league in Al Saunders. Remember when Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson were dominating fantasy football back in the heyday of the Chiefs RB dominated #1 in the league offense? Saunders was the OC. Prior to being hired by the Raiders this offseason, he was coming off a 2 year stint as offensive consultant for the Ravens where the offense was built around Ray Rice who had 141 receptions in those 2 years...

 

nice work prancers, you may have actually just swung me to move McFadded up my boards a little, which is hard, because I'm truly not a fan of his. One thing to keep in mind is that Johnson/Holmes came at the absolute height of the Chiefs offensive line prowess. Yes, Saunders probably had big hand in that as well, but if I recall, the Raiders may lose two off their line that was never as good as the Chiefs line to begin with.

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