Grade your teams draft - 2011

[Mike Honcho 3,995]

3 years is a good time period to determine how well a team drafted, so step up and rate the 2011 NFL Draft

 

Green Bay Packers

(I prefer to grade on a curve, players who contribute from the 5th round will get a more generous grade than a first round player with similar production--but feel free to grade however you would like)

 

Derek Sherrod(Round 1/Overall 32) = C-

I don't downgrade for getting injured(Derek suffered a pretty bad broken leg as a rookie) and was close to grading this and incomplete, but he did have the chance to compete and win the starting spot from an aging Clifton and couldn't do it. Coming out of camp he was behind Newhouse as the backup tackle on either side and that says a lot.

 

Randall Cobb(2/64) = A

Dynamic WR, who can score any time he touches the ball. Has become too valuable to use as kick returner. Broke leg last year and came back to score 2TD's in the last game to get GB past the Bears and into the playoffs. Also, just to toot my own horn, I called this pick 2 days before the draft, with the correct round, only time I've done other than AJ Hawk.

 

Alex Green(3/96) = D+

Another player who became injured as a rookie(torn ACL) who never really developed. He had a couple of nice plays as rook, but after the ACL he looked tentative and slowed. Cut after 2 years in GB, signed with the Jets, didn't do much.

 

Davon House(4/131) = C

House "looks" the part of a starting DB, but unless Tramon isn't resigned after this season, or there is an injury to Shields, I don't expect him to ever be more than a backup with the Packers. Seemed to be playing smarter at the end of last year, but always seems to be thinking rather than be instinctive. Unless something drastic happens, he'll have a 4th year in GB, but I wouldn't go more than 50/50 that he gets a 5th year.

 

D.J. Williams(5/141) = D-

Too small to be an NFL TE. Technically, he's a Patriot right now(signed when Gronk went down), be a real shock if he makes that team come 2014.

 

Caleb Schlauderaff(6/179) = D-

Traded to Jets before during first training camp, still on their roster, but hasn't seen any significant playing time.

 

D.J. Smith(6/186) = C-

Smallish LB, who looked to be a big hitter, started 5 games as a 2nd year player after Desmond Bishop went down, suffered a knee injury of his, IR, then failed the 2013 physical and was cut.

 

Ricky Elmore(6/197) = F

Friggin joke pick, too small for D-line, too slow for LB. I assume TT had been drinking when he made this pick.

 

Ryan Taylor(7/218) = B

Back up TE, but most notable for being a solid special teams contributor. Most likely will make the team for 2014.

 

Lawrence Guy(7/233) = D-

Made the team, and like a lot of rookies from this class, ended up on IR. At best a fill-in/journeymen player.

 

Overall = D+/C-

If not for Randall Cobb(who was starting to look like an All-pro before breaking his leg last season), this draft hasn't produced one other solid contributor. Just 1 capable backup and a ST player. And it's doesn't look like it's a coaching issue, as none of these players went else where and produced.

[Mike FF Today 607]

Kansas City Chiefs - 2011 Draft

1.26 	WR 	 Jonathan Baldwin
2.23 	OL 	 Rodney Hudson
3.06 	LB 	 Justin Houston
3.22 	DL 	 Allen Bailey 	  	  
4.21 	DB 	 Jalil Brown	  
5.04 	QB 	 Ricky Stanzi
5.09 	TE 	 Gabe Miller
6.34 	DL 	 Jerrell Powe
7.20 	RB 	 Shane Bannon

The reason the Chiefs were hot after WR Emmanuel Sanders and inquired about DeSean Jackson is because they whiffed badly on Jonathan Baldwin three years ago in the first round. They do have a chance to save some face with the pick if A.J. Jenkins (received in a trade for Baldwin) becomes a steady contributor over the next few years.

 

Rodney Hudson has become a starter, a solid NFL lineman and should be for many years to come.

 

LB Justin Houston is the prime pick of this draft for KC and looks to be one of good outside rush linebackers in the league. He saves this draft for the Chiefs and as a result, I'll give them a grade of C. The grade would be higher had KC taken WR Torrey Smith or WR Randall Cobb instead of Baldwin... both of which were selected near the end of the 2nd round.

[Law 220]

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

DL Heyward finally turned the corner and is looking like what was expected of him. A-

OT Gilbert has started at times, but has also struggled at times - both on the field and in staying healthy. B

CB Brown couldn't stay healthy, tearing his ACL, and was cut this year. F

CB Allen is a big corner who likely start over Gay or Taylor this year. B+

LB Carter has not proven much in 3 seasons. D

OL Williams never made the team. F

I liked RB Batch, but he was cut before last season. C

 

Overall, nothing too exciting. One emerging stud and two other starters is not too bad. C+ to B-

Picking in 31 spot is what it is.

[sirensong 111]

DAL

 

1. tyron smith

2. bruce carter

3. demarco murray

4. david arkin

5. josh thomas

6. dwayne harris

7. shaun chapas

8. bill nagy

 

 

selected smith over amukamara, anchoring their OL with a guy who has the physical tools to become truly dominant. though this pick seems obvious now, there was a strong push to draft amukamara, since DAL was having secondary problems. the CB went to NYG, and while he is a competent player, he's not in smith's league.

 

like lee the previous year, carter was graded as a first round talent, but fell due to an ACL injury his final year of college. they developed him the same way, and he looked like a steal in 2012 (his 2nd season). but he had a lot of problems adjusting to the 4-3 last season, and so his status is in limbo. amazing physical gifts, but seems to be having a crisis of confidence. the danger is that he turns into another mike jenkins--one season promising greatness, and then a big falloff in production.

 

murray was drafted about where he should have been--good solid pick, except for his injury issues in the league.

 

 

that's 3 for 3 on early-round starters. if carter returns to form, this is already a formidable draft. but the late rounds fall off sharply--only harris is still with the team. 5-7 guys are normally long shots to stick for more than one season, and it can be argued that getting one of the best special teamers in the league offsets the big miss in the 4th round. but to grade out as an A, teams have to draft excellent values (not just quality players).

 

 

 

overall: B (B+ if carter regains his form)

[MicktheGreat 1]

TITANS

1.08 QB Jake Locker (WASHINGTON): While Locker displayed potential in his first two seasons, it was unclear how he would perform last season as the full-time starter. However, he began the season by playing at a very high level before getting injured in the Jets game by a late (and somewhat dirty) hit. While he was able to return a few weeks later, his play wasn't the same after that. He's talented enough to be a starting QB, and his intangibles are great. The big ??? is whether he can stay healthy.

GRADE: B-

 

2.07 OLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA): Ayers broke onto the scene by playing well and showing potential as a pass-rusher from the LB spot. Last season, he wasn't nearly as explosive and didn't really make any splash plays; however, he's a solid starter and consistent contributor. It'll be interesting to see how new DC Horton uses his skills and whether he returns to his pass-rushing ways this year.

GRADE: B

 

3.13 DT Jurrell Casey (USC): This was the Titans best pick in the 2011 draft by a mile. Though Casey suffered through some nagging, lingering injuries during his second season, he played out of his mind last year and consistently dominated opposing OLs throughout the entire season. He's easily the best DL that the Titans have had since Albert Haynesworth and is arguably the best DT in the NFL. (He's certainly a top 3-5 DT.)

GRADE: A+

 

4.12 MLB Colin McCarthy (Miami): McCarthy began his career as a backup; however, he got significant playing time due to injuries to other LBs and showed a knack for making plays, forcing turnovers, etc. He entered the second season with very high expectations. But that was soon derailed by recurring injuries, which also carried over to last season. When he did play last season, he didn't flash the same playmaking ability that he did as a rookie. His knock in college -- and the reason he fell as far as he did in the draft -- was that he was injury-prone and that's proven true thus far in his NFL career as well.

GRADE: C

 

4.33 RB Jamie Harper (Clemson): This was a curious pick in the draft, as most "experts" had Harper going several rounds later than when the Titans took him. Harper had good size and measurables; however, he didn't play like a big RB but, rather, tiptoed around. There was some hope that he would be a goal-line and short-yardage compliment to Chris Johnson but that didn't work out at all. Busted and no longer with the team.

GRADE: F

 

5.11 DT Karl Klug (Iowa): Klug is a tad undersized as a DT, and he's not great against the run. However, he's shown a true penchant for pressuring opposing QBs, and his quickness makes him a tough matchup for interior OLs. He's the sort of player that just "makes plays" when given the opportunity; but, for whatever reason, he could never get much playing time under the last coaching regime. It remains to be seen whether he'll make the team this year and how he'll contribute in the Horton's 3-4 DEF, where he'll likely move to DE. Still, a good pick at this point in the draft with potential to put up stats when given the opportunity.

GRADE: B-

 

6.10 OT Byron Stingily (Louisville): Stingily has good size; and, although he was raw coming out of college, he had potential to develop into either a RT or a LT in the right system and with the right coaching. He's been a solid backup thus far and played well last season in limited duty. In fact, he'll likely be given every opportunity to compete with newcomer Michael Oher for the RT spot, as Oher's contract is essentially structured like a one-year tryout deal. At the very least, Stingily is a good backup and a very good pick this late in the draft.

GRADE: C+

 

7.09 DT Zach Clayton (Auburn): Clayton played next to Nick Fairley on a very good Auburn DEF. At the time, the Titans had just hired one of Auburn's coaches as their DL coach, and he was very high on Clayton's potential as an inside pass-rushing presence. Clayton hung around for a couple season on-and-off the roster and the practice squad, but he never really stuck. But this was a late round pick so it was a shot in the dark anyway.

GRADE: D

 

7.48 CB Tommie Campbell (Cal-Penn): Campbell came from a very small school and, if I'm remembering correctly, had a few off-the-field issues in college. But he also has great size, and the Titans have a penchant for finding and drafting solid CBs in the final rounds of the draft. (For example, Jason McCourty was a 6th Rounder, Cortland Finnegan was a 7th Rounder, etc.) He was in a CB battle last offseason with Alterraun Verner for the #2 CB spot -- though Verner clearly bested him and went on to have a fantastic season. Still, Campbell's got talent, fantastic measurables, and has flashed potential in limited opportunities. I expect him to compete for the #2 gig again this offseason and, at the very least, he's a good ST player and good CB depth in a league where every team needs as many talented CBs as they can get.

GRADE: B-

 

OVERALL: I'd give this draft a solid "B" grade. While Harper was a bust as a mid-round pick, the Titans managed to draft a true stud in Casey, a very good player in Ayers, and a bunch of solid contributors in the late rounds (e.g. Klug, Campbell, & Stingily). A great deal will depend on how Locker plays this year. If he can stay healthy, then this draft grade will likely be even higher; if he gets hurt again and is gone next season, then the grade will lower a bit. Still...overall, this was a good, dependable draft for the Titans.

[MDC 5,874]

Eagles:

 

1. G Danny Watkins: F.

2. SS Jacquaiwn Jarrett: F

3. CB Curtis Marsh: F

4. LB Casey Matthews: D

4. K Alex Henery: D

5. RB Dion Lewis: D

5. G Julian Vandervelde: C-

6. C Jason Kelce: A

6. LB Brian Rolle: C-

7. LB Greg Lloyd: F

7. RB Stanley Havilli: F

 

What more needs to be said? This was easily the worst draft of Andy Reid's time here and probably the one that got him fired.

 

Of the Eagles 11 selections only 4 remain on the roster just three years later. This entire draft yielded a very good starting center, a below average starting kicker who was a 4th round reach and is likely to face training camp competition, a decent backup G and a bad backup LB.

 

7 of the Eagles 11 picks have already been cut including their first, second and third round picks. First rounder Danny Watkins was already 27 years old when they drafted him. He ayes poorly, lost his starting job and was cut last year.

 

You just can't have drafts like this where you get literally nothing out of an entire haul. This was Reid's worst but the year before wasn't a whole lot better either.

 

The 2012 draft was much better and last year's class looks pretty good too.

 

ETA: I'm tempted to give the Eagles draft a D just for Kelce - getting a day one starter who's played at a near Pro Bowl level and a high character locker room leader in Round 6 is tremendous value. But when you have 11 draft picks and come away with only one starter, with picks 1-3 cut after two seasons, you have to call it a tremendous failure.

 

Overall a big fat F.

[phillybear 364]

Seattle Seahawks 2011 Draft

 

1.25 James Carpenter, OT, Alabama

Grade: F+

Part time starter, frequently injured and overweight and ineffective, Nick Saban was at the draft and openly laughed at Carpenter being drafted so early. Fighting for his roster life this training camp.

 

3.11 John Moffitt, OG, Wisconsin

Grade: F-

This dummy was handed a starting job, then promptly lost it to a 7th round draft choice who had played defensive line his entire life. Traded to Denver for a warm body, quit Denver because he didn't like football anymore, got busted for dealing drugs.

 

4.2 KJ Wright, LB, Mississippi St

Grade: B

Starting Linebacker. Solid but unspectacular.

 

4.10 Kris Durham, WR, Georgia

Grade: F

Can't play. Drafted for his size (6'6"), not ability. A total reach of a pick. Cut after one useless year, active for 3 games. Somehow is clinging to a roster spot on Detroit.

 

5.23 Richard Sherman, CB, Stanford

Grade: A++

Best cornerback in the league, taken deep in the 5th round.

 

5.25 Mark LeGree, FS, Appalachian St

Grade: F

Didn't make the final roster in year one.

 

6.8 Byron Maxwell, CB, Clemson

Grade: B+

Was a decent backup player, became starter after Brandon Browner suspension this past season, never let go of starting gig by merit. Ball hawking, gambles a bit too much, but a good fit in the best secondary in NFL history.

 

7.2 Lazarius Levingston, DE, LSU

Grade: D

Made the final roster for a year, cut due to injury issues. Never contributed in a career cut short.

 

7.39 Malcolm Smith, LB, USC

Grade: B

4th LB, fills in at every LB spot, Superbowl MVP, legendary interception return vs Manning and immortalized for catching the Sherman tip ball in NFC championship game. Should be starting this upcoming season.

 

Overall Grade: B

The Seattle Seahawks had 3 glaring weaknesses going into the draft. Pass rush, Offensive line, Defensive secondary. The front office openly talked about addressing the offensive line with this draft. Swing and a miss and a miss. And 3 of the first 4 draft picks were complete busts. However, they found two starting corners and two starting LBs in the later rounds. Getting four starters in one draft is great, incredible considering how late they were all drafted and how good this defense is where it's extremely hard to crack the starting lineup, but the early busts really make this draft a roller coaster of either a homerun or a strikeout on every pick, which drags down the overall grade.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

Rams

 

1.14 Robert Quinn

Grade A++

He may be the best pass rushing end in all of football. Young, fast, strong and plays with a mean streak. This is the best pick the Rams have had since Orlando Pace.

 

2.15 Lance Kendricks

Grade C -

We knew what we were getting in Kendricks. A blocking TE. That said, he was overdrafted and hasn't been on the field enough to warrant anything higher. He can block, and his pass catching ability has improved, but this was a 2nd round pick. We had MANY other needs.

 

3.14 Austin Pettis

Grade D

Pettis is a reliable third down slot guy. He has no special talents, no speed and he would not likely make the roster of most teams. He does have good hands, but this was the second horrible pick in a row by a team that was desperate for offense.

 

4.15 Greg Salas

Grade F

Out of the league already. He put up great stats in a spread offense at Hawaii, but his game didn't translate to the NFL. For a 4th round selection, he may have been worth the risk as other teams had their sites on him as well. He couldn't separate from anyone off the line and could be knocked off his route with a simple nudge. This is what you get from a spread offense WR who is use to DB's playing 5 yards off the line of scrimmage and in college he faced mostly Div II opponents.

 

5.27 Jermale Hines

Grade F

Who? No, seriously, who? Total waste of a 5th round pick.

 

7.13 Mikail Baker

Grade F

See above.

 

7.25 Jabara Williams

Grade F

Yep, see above again, only this guy was a linebacker who couldn't tackle, run, defend the pass or likely pee standing up. Three in a row that aren't in the NFL and couldn't make the practice squad. Nice drafting by the Rams brass.

 

7.26 Jonathan Nelson

Grade F

Ok, 4 in a row that aren't on the roster. Shouldn't have been drafted. The Rams treat late round picks like luxuries. That is great for a good team, not so much for a losing franchise who was rated by Lindy's as the poorest drafting franchise over the past decade.

 

Overall - D

 

We got Quinn. Kendricks will be gone after this season and Pettis may not make the squad this year. This is pretty similar to how all of our drafts have gone since 2002. One good player, maybe one average player, and at least 4 guys who won't even make the practice squad. Go Rams! They only get a D because Quinn turned out to be everything people hope Clowney becomes. You can't build a team with only one good draft selection each year. We're living proof of that.

[ckleinhe 2]

DETROIT:

Rd.Overall

 

1.13 Nick Fairley B-. Not as consistent as he could be, and had some off field issues. Still, a monster talent and very effective when on. Also, I think taking him was the right call- drafted based on his ceiling. But it's hard not to wonder how things would be if they'd taken Robert Quinn, who was drafted next, instead.

 

2.44 Titus Young F-. Sucker punched a teammate, lined up wrong on purpose, got cut. Mental health a serious issue and hope he is getting help. But his issues were not entirely unknown at the time of the draft. Add to that the fact that he was undersized and they could have had Torrey Smith or even Randall Cobb (also short but a lot heavier) instead and this pick looks even worse

 

2.57 Mikel Leshoure C. RB is an increasingly fungible position and even without the Achilles injury it's not clear he was a good value here. DeMarco Murray, Stevan Ridley, and Roy Helu all went later for example, and despite issues of their own, would have been better picks imo.

 

5.157 Doug Hogue F. Athlete with limited experience at his position. Lasted 18 games, no starts, before cut. Played in 9 more games for Carolina. Thbbt. This is what happens when you trade away picks to move up and then those picks don't work out.

 

7.209 Johnny Culbreath F. To be fair, 7th round picks seldom pan out. But Culbreath never made it into a game, before being cut for off field issues.

[GreenTD 56]

Cincinnati Bengals

 

1.4 AJ Green (WR - Georgia) A++

 

One of the top young wideouts in the NFL & has a bright future ahead of him. Stud since day 1. Makes Andy Dalton look better than he actually is.

 

2.3 Andy Dalton (QB - TCU) B+

 

Starter since day 1 & is a serviceable quarterback who has led the Bengals to the playoffs in his 1st 3 seasons. The 0-3 record once he gets there is troubling though. Has a tendency to play very well one week & terrible the next. Lack of arm strength is his biggest knock against him.

 

3.2 Dontay Moch (OLB - Nevada) F-

 

Project player who had tremendous upside due to his athleticism. Got hurt his rookie season & was waived later by the Bengals. Justin Houston should've been the pick here.

 

4.4 Clint Boling (OG - Georgia) B+

 

Solid offensive lineman who has started 31/33 games in his career. Tore his ACL in 2013 so hopefully he can recover in time for the 2014 season.

 

5.3 Robert Sands (S - W. Virginia) F-

 

Athletic safety but basically never saw the field. Released & was charged with assaulting his wife.

 

6.2 Ryan Whalen (WR - Stanford) D-

 

11 catches for 80 yards in his career. Hard to see playing time with much more dynamic receivers ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

7.4 Korey Lindsey (CB - S. Illinois) F-

 

Who?

 

7.43 Jay Finley (RB - Baylor) F-

 

Who 2x???

 

3 starters out of 8. Not bad but not great. AJ Green is a perennial pro-bowler & Andy Dalton has played better than most of the 1st round QB's selected ahead of him (Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Weeden). It'll be interesting to see if the Bengals seem content with Dalton as the franchise QB for the foreseeable future or draft a QB in a couple weeks to provide some competition.

 

I'd give the overall draft a B grade. Didn't mess up the earlier picks but didn't find any gems in the late rounds.

[sirensong 111]

lots of guys rating late round picks as Fs. this makes no sense--look at the numbers. if a 7th rounder makes the 53 his rookie year, he's at least a C. if he plays on sundays, he's a B.

[Mike FF Today 607]

I tend to agree with sirensong about grading players drafted in the 4th round or later. Their expectations aren't as high as players drafted in Rounds 1-3, (in my opinion)... so if those guys are semi-regular contributors on the team after three years, I'd hand them a passing grade.

 

Nice job on these and looking forward to reading more!

[GreenTD 56]

lots of guys rating late round picks as Fs. this makes no sense--look at the numbers. if a 7th rounder makes the 53 his rookie year, he's at least a C. if he plays on sundays, he's a B.

Good point. The guys I rated as F's for the Bengals were either cut or practice squad players. I'd rather rank them too low than too high since blind homerism is something I don't partake in. Too rank these guys as C's I'd have to see them being special teams contributors on Sundays.

[southcarolina 166]

Patriots

 

1(17) [from Oakland] Nate Solder OT Colorado

A

Turned an aging DE in Richard Seymour into a starting LT on one of the better O lines in the league.

1 (28) Traded pick to NO for 56 and a 2012 1st.

B+

Turned this first rounder (plus a 2012 3rd rounder) into Vereen and Chandler Jones. Getting a starter and a valuable contributor out of one pick is value. If Jones continues to improve, and/or Vereen can ever string together a couple of injury free seasons this could be a A+



2(33) Ras I Dowling CB Virginia

F---

Guy was made of glass in college, shattered once in the NFL. Played in 9 games in two years. Cut by the Patriots after 2012, played in 0 games for the Jets last year. Pick made all that much worse by the fact that the Bills drafted DB Aaron Williams at pick 34, who has started 30 games in the last 3 years.

2 (56) [from Carolina] Shane Vereen RB Cal

C+

I'd give this pick a D on production, a B on talent. Average out to a C. Seems to have the potential to be a breakout star as a receiving type RB. Just cant stay healthy.

2 (60) Traded this pick to Houston for picks 73 and 138.

B

Used these picks to take Ridley and Cannon. Again turned one pick into a starter and a valuable contributor..

3 (73) Stevan Ridley RB LSU

B

Solid if unspectacular starting caliber RB. Seems to be unable to take the starting gig by the throat. Needs to fumble less.

3 (74) Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas

B-

First round talent at a third round price. Filled a need (backup QB). Not Malletts fault he played behind Tom F'n Brady. Model citizen during his time in NE. Obviously did well enough that the Patriots coaching staff hasnt brought in any serious competition for the backup spot since drafting him. Will lead the Texans to several playoff appearances starting in 2015, and bolster my Dynasty team to a string of championships into the next decade..

3 (92) Traded this pick and 125 to the Raiders for 219 and a 2012 2nd round pick.

D

Malcolm Williams (219) was a non factor. Tavon Wilson (2012 2nd rounder) made the roster and has played himself into a core special teamer.

 

Could have had: Chris Conte was taken at 93, DaNorris Searcy taken at 100.

4 (99) [from Denver] Traded pick to Seattle for Dieon Branch.

B+

Branch caught more passes than Gronk, more than Hernandez, more than any Patriot not named Welker, despite only playing 11 games in 2010. Provided veteran leadership to a receiving corps breaking in 2 rookie TEs and a safety blanket for Tom Brady post Randy Moss.

5 (138) Marcus Cannon OL TCU

B

2nd round talent at 5th round price. Key backup OL who played in 30 games in the 2012 and 2013 seasons. Has seen snaps at both G and T

5 (159) Lee Smith TE Marshall

F

Never made a roster for the Patriots. Has played on the Bills for the last 3 years as a 3rdTE/special teamer.

6 (194) Markell Carter LB Central Arkansas

D+

Cut before the 2012 season. Was on the Patriots Practice Squad for the 2012 season. Was the Patriots Practice Squad Player of the Week 7 times during that season (Yay Google!!!). Gets a bump up from a D- for being the Patriots "Rudy". Currently playing for the Colorado Ice of the IFL.

7 (219) [from Oakland] Malcolm Williams DB TCU

D

TCU Played in 4 games for the Patriots. Strictly a special teamer in college, was this years Nate Ebner. Currently also on the Colorado Ice roster.

7 (230) Traded to the Falcons for OL Quinn Ojinnaka.

C

On the active roster for 8 games in 2010. Not much production, but it was a 7th rounder.

 

Could have had: Baron Batch

 

 

 

[Upper Class Trash 67]

The guys I rated an 'F' with the Rams were late round picks, but didn't make the roster or even the practice squad. In reality, our GM deserved the 'F' grade, not the player. They can't help where they were drafted.

[Cruzer 1,992]

DAL

 

1. tyron smith

2. bruce carter

3. demarco murray

4. david arkin

5. josh thomas

6. dwayne harris

7. shaun chapas

8. bill nagy

 

overall: B (B+ if carter regains his form)

Ready for this? I'm giving the 2011 draft a dead-on, rock-solid, A+.

 

Re: It was the first time in Jerry's reign that he actually drafted an offensive lineman in the 1st round. Tyron Smith was a monumental turning point for both this franchise and Jerry himself. Notsomuch that Tyron is a surefire HOF lock - but that for the first time Jerry actually "hinted" at the idea that his way wasn't exactly working and that he was open to the possibility of building a team from the inside out. The pick shook the walls of Valley Ranch and the entire Metroplex - it completely shocked us all - in a good way of course. D. Murray and D. Harris also turned out to be great picks to come out of this draft that only added to grade. Frederick soon followed which proved Jerry is still committed to the idea of this approach. I hope we see more of it in 2014, and on down the road.

[DankNuggs 305]

Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Mallet, and Marcus Cannon were all solid picks that were at or above value. the 4 non QBs are all contributors and Mallet has gained alot of value... Ras-I-Dowling was another DB bust pick for the pats and there have been an insane number of those over the last half dozen years... The last few rounds were scratch tickets that didn't pan out.

[browns16-0 30]

Cleveland Browns 2011

-I am not taking the Julio Jones trade into consideration. The Browns got great value from this trade but did terribly with the selections they made from the extra picks (Weeden, Marecic, Little)

 

1. (21) Phil Taylor DT: B

-Solid DL, plays stout against the run and is a force. However, hasn't been able to stay consistently healthy and the Browns actually moved up to select him, giving up a 3rd rd pick in the process.

 

2. (37) Jabaal Sheard DE: B-

-Has shown consistency and flashes of brilliance. Has done a fine job transitioning from DE to LB while switching from a 4-3 to 3-4 but is better suited to play in a 4-3.

 

2. (59) Greg Little WR: C-

-Wildly inconsistent, near the top of dropped passes every season. Still has the talent to make incredible plays while dropping routine ones. Sure wish we would have just take Julio. He will struggle to make the team this season especially if another WR gets drafted.

 

4. (102) Jordan Cameron TE: A-

-Took a couple seasons to adjust from a College Basketball player with very little experience, but is now one of the premier pass catching tight ends.

 

4. (124) Owen Marecic FB: F

-Was terrible as a FB and no longer in the league. Wasted pick.

 

5. (137) Buster Skrine CB: C+

-Made huge strides last year and was starter opposite of Joe Haden. Held his own as previously he had been a coverage/penalty liability.

 

5. (150) Jason Pinkston G: D+

-Career derailed by life threatening blood clots. Trying to make a come back and has a chance to as Cleveland's OL needs help at guard.

 

7. (248) Eric Haag S: D

-He did start a couple games in his career, but never amounted to much and is now out of the league.

 

Overall: B- Taylor and Sheard are regular playmakers on the defense, while Skrine has contributed as well to this unit. The only offensive piece to come out of this draft was Cameron who was an excellent selection coming out of the 4th round. Basically some hits and some misses, but did not whiff on their first couple picks which is paramount when drafting.

[MDC 5,874]

lots of guys rating late round picks as Fs. this makes no sense--look at the numbers. if a 7th rounder makes the 53 his rookie year, he's at least a C. if he plays on sundays, he's a B.

If a player doesn't ever make the roster he's an F, right?

[sirensong 111]

If a player doesn't ever make the roster he's an F, right?

 

i wouldn't say so. we're grading the draft: the front office, not the players. otherwise you could just post stats for everyone. grading the draft itself includes value ("such-and-so could have been had later"), scheme ("this guy just doesn't fit"), and culture (character issues, etc.). when it comes to something like this, you have to look at the percentages. IIRC, only like 20% of 7th rounders make the roster, so it seems strange to say that 80% of teams are failures in the 7th round. the point of the 7th is to invest in upside--it's a low cost, high payoff bet. you expect to miss 80% of the time, hoping that you catch lightning in a bottle.

 

up through the 4th round, those guys are expected to at least make the roster. 5th is borderline, but 6ths and 7ths are not automatic Fs if they get cut.

 

but sometimes you have to draft a guy because of his potential--it would be wrong not to do so (think of calling on pot odds in poker). it's easy to spot flameouts in hindsight, but if we're grading the front office, we have to work with what they knew at the time, and how they approached the pick (needs, values, upside, who was left on the board, and so forth).

 

for example, DAL's pick of escobar last season was probably a D. the guy has ability, and might turn into something, but the pick made no sense with larry warford on the board. so even if escobar eventually turns into an A player, the front office still has to take a grade hit because there were better options on the board.

 

i've had a lot of rum tonight, so i dunno if this rambling post makes any sense. my point is that grading a historical draft is more than simply identifying the best players after the fact. otherwise every team failed for letting brees fall to the second, and mccoy fall to the third.

[sirensong 111]

Ready for this? I'm giving the 2011 draft a dead-on, rock-solid, A+.

 

 

holy optimism!

 

who are you, and when did you hack Cruzer McGrumpy's account?

 

[MDC 5,874]

 

i wouldn't say so. we're grading the draft: the front office, not the players. otherwise you could just post stats for everyone. grading the draft itself includes value ("such-and-so could have been had later"), scheme ("this guy just doesn't fit"), and culture (character issues, etc.). when it comes to something like this, you have to look at the percentages. IIRC, only like 20% of 7th rounders make the roster, so it seems strange to say that 80% of teams are failures in the 7th round. the point of the 7th is to invest in upside--it's a low cost, high payoff bet. you expect to miss 80% of the time, hoping that you catch lightning in a bottle.

 

up through the 4th round, those guys are expected to at least make the roster. 5th is borderline, but 6ths and 7ths are not automatic Fs if they get cut.

 

but sometimes you have to draft a guy because of his potential--it would be wrong not to do so (think of calling on pot odds in poker). it's easy to spot flameouts in hindsight, but if we're grading the front office, we have to work with what they knew at the time, and how they approached the pick (needs, values, upside, who was left on the board, and so forth).

 

for example, DAL's pick of escobar last season was probably a D. the guy has ability, and might turn into something, but the pick made no sense with larry warford on the board. so even if escobar eventually turns into an A player, the front office still has to take a grade hit because there were better options on the board.

 

i've had a lot of rum tonight, so i dunno if this rambling post makes any sense. my point is that grading a historical draft is more than simply identifying the best players after the fact. otherwise every team failed for letting brees fall to the second, and mccoy fall to the third.

I guess I'm asking what grade a pick gets if he fails to make the roster? Is a 7th rounder an Incomplete if he's cut? If so, how do you justify giving a late round pick an A for becoming a competent starter?

 

I get your point, I'm just trying to figure out what you grade a guy who takes up a late pick without ever playing a single down.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

NY JETS

 

Rd 1 - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE (30) - a steal at this spot. a little underrated but he has been a force. improved each season and hit double digit sacks last year. rising star for sure. (A+)

 

Rd 3 - Kenrick Ellis, DT (94) - not a terrible pick but injuries have kept him from taking off. just a rotational player at this point as Damon Harrison ended up grabbing the starting NT job and running with it ©

 

Rd 4 - Bilal Powell, RB (126) - Jets have good 4th round track record. Signing CJ bumps him to 3rd on depth chart but Powell has been solid if unspectacular and his contributions have helped this team. (B-)

 

Rd 5 - Jeremy Kerley (153) - I think he is a slot weapon that will continue to get better. Reliable target continues to improve despite poor offense and continual change at OC/QB (B+)

 

Rd 7 - Greg McElroy / Scotty McKnight (208/227) - thrown at wall, didn't stick. Not surprising in either case. (D)

 

 

Overall: B+ - im going with B+ overall because anytime you grab a stud like Wilkerson, you've had a good draft but it would have been nice to see them land one more supremely impactful player. Powell and Kerley are nice players and I still feel Kerley can be a very solid slot guy with the right receivers on the outside, but neither are game changers.

 

[sirensong 111]

I get your point, I'm just trying to figure out what you grade a guy who takes up a late pick without ever playing a single down.

 

it's a tough question, which is why i didn't grade individual picks--i don't remember the board dynamics of the time. i'd say that once you get down to the 5th and below, those are more like pluz/zero/minus grades. take a good prospect in the 7th that didn't pan out--i don't think we can give that pick an F. maybe a 0, since it was par for the course. a bad prospect who didn't make the team would get a minus. and of course the goldmines (like sherman) would get a + or ++.

 

frankly, i try to look at the whole draft instead of the individual picks. for DAL 2011, they would get an A for the top half of the draft, but a B- or C+ for the bottom half (harris makes up for the late misses).

[Dueces Will Be Wild 15]

Saints 2011 Draft. Well, outside our first pick, it was pretty bad. Only two picks were on the team last year, the two first rounders, so that's not great. I think the jury is still out on Ingram we'll see. I didn't like the trade when it happened and I still don't.

 

 

1st Round (24th overall): Cameron Jordan DE (A-). He's steadily gotten better every year. Last year he was great and if he keeps developing he'll be a perennial pro-bowler.

 

1st Round (26th overall): Mark Ingram RB (C+). He's been an average running back so far in his career (and that's probably being generous). We saw some good things out of him last year at times but he needs to pull everything together and really become the bell cow to be worthy of he draft pick which I'm not sure he's able to do (especially in the Saint's offense). This year will really make or break him imo.

 

3rd Round (88th overall): Martez Wilson OLB ©. He had some potential and I personally was looking forward to seeing him in our new 3-4 but he never got a chance and was cut before the start of last season. He is currently on the Cowboys' roster - honestly I don't know what his role was like last year.

 

3rd Round (88th overall): Johnny Patrick CB ©. Very similar to Martez Wilson in that he had some potential. Rotated in during his first two years but never developed enough. Was also cut before last year. Currently on the NYJ.

 

7th Round (226th overall): Greg Romeus DE (F - I guess). Well he was a 7th round pick but he spent his two year career on IR. I don't think he ever made it past training camp in either of his first two seasons. Was cut before last year and didn't get picked up by anyone.

 

7th Round 243rd overall): Nate Bussey LB (D-). 2 years on the practice squad. I don't think he ever played a snap either.

[LunaTick 29]

I tend to agree with sirensong about grading players drafted in the 4th round or later. Their expectations aren't as high as players drafted in Rounds 1-3, (in my opinion)... so if those guys are semi-regular contributors on the team after three years, I'd hand them a passing grade.

 

Nice job on these and looking forward to reading more!

 

How about remarking these as pass / fail.

 

4th round though is still a viable round for drafting starting talent, however. but after that ...

[LunaTick 29]

Minnesota Vikings

round.pick overall

stat info, what nfl.com has

 

Vikings Draft Class Grade D+ (only because of Rudolph and Fusco Picks)

+ Had they drafted either Dalton/Kaepernick. Class Grade would have been a B+

 

1.12 - Christian Ponder, QB, FL St -

Grade = D-

Why:

1. Dalton and Kaepernick were drafted after. Are undisputed starters. Are better QB. What were they thinking?

2. Vikings since training camp last season, have been looking for a starting qb.

3. does not excel at playing horse / isn't accurate. really, a qb that sucks at horse. that should have been a flag.

4. cannot not throw deep ball

5. have you ever heard him talk / is a neanderthal. dah I will hug him and squeeze him and call him george.

why not an F

1. He is viable as a backup, but should he be one?

 

2.43 - Kyle Rudolph, TE, ND

Grade A

Might have been an A+ if he had a QB worth a damn, especially last season.

 

4.106 - Christian Ballard, DT, IA

Grade = F - 4th round, this early i the draft. to have a player not on the NFL stat radar is to be considered a bust imo.

why

1. isn't on roster today

2. could not find on NFL stats for current/historical players

 

Following rounds typically graded Pass/Fail.

Letter Grade given only to Viking players with stats to grade against.

 

5.139 - Brandon Burton, CB, UT

Grade Fail+

1. not on teams current roster

why the +

2. was on Vikes 2011/2012 - 14 games / 1 start

3 was on Bills last season. - 5 games

4. currently a Bengal.

 

6.168 - Demarcus Love - OL, AR

Grade Fail+

1. not on teams current roster

why the +

2. listed as a vike first season. no stats

3. not listed on a team in 2012

4. last season with Jags. no stats

 

6.170 - Mistral Raymond - CB, S Fla

Grade = Pass

Grade B, Given round selected

1. still on roster as a Safety

2. started in 10 games out of 32

3. no season with more than 12 games.

 

6.172 - Brandon Fusco - OL, Slipperyrock

Grade = Pass+

Grade = A, Given round selected to have a pick start most games.

1. Starting Guard still on roster

why the +

2. started in 31 games out of 34. Only on roster 4 games first season. missed 1 game last season

3. If Vikes draft a OL in first round. He is likely to be demoted

 

6.200 - Ross Homan - LB, The OSU

Grade = Fail

why

1. isn't on roster today

2. listed in NFL radar, but no stats

 

7.215 - D'aundre Reed - DE, AZ

Grade = Fail -

why

1. isn't on roster today

why the -

2. could not find on NFL stats for current/historical players

 

7.236 - Stephen Burton - WR, W TX A&M

Grade = Pass

why

1. isn't on a roster today

2. was on an NFL roster last 3 seasons First season with the Jags, last two with Vikes. Few games/games started

3. stats not significant

[MDC 5,874]

 

it's a tough question, which is why i didn't grade individual picks--i don't remember the board dynamics of the time. i'd say that once you get down to the 5th and below, those are more like pluz/zero/minus grades. take a good prospect in the 7th that didn't pan out--i don't think we can give that pick an F. maybe a 0, since it was par for the course. a bad prospect who didn't make the team would get a minus. and of course the goldmines (like sherman) would get a + or ++.

 

frankly, i try to look at the whole draft instead of the individual picks. for DAL 2011, they would get an A for the top half of the draft, but a B- or C+ for the bottom half (harris makes up for the late misses).

I agree with you in general, just saying if Richard Sherman nets a team an A+ for a 6th rounder it's not unreasonable to grade a 5-7 round pick an F for failing to make the team since the expectation at that round is usually backup or special teamer. Making the roster in those rounds nets a D/C at worst just for providing depth. any form of contribution is a B or above.

 

Then take the relative value into consideration when forming an overall grade.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

you can easily grade a 6th or 7th round bust as an F. maybe you want to give them a D or a C- or something to offset the fact that its a little tougher to find impactful talent but fact is, GM's coaches, scouting staff etc etc get paid to identify the talent of all these guys. you can find a nice starting guard in round 6.

[sirensong 111]

you can find a nice starting guard in round 6.

 

name 3 of them.

 

for example, in 2011, 7 Gs were drafted in the 6th and later. none of them have become regular starters, and several of them are already out of the league.

 

we're talking about percentages here, so this is very relevant.

 

 

edit: just ran down some numbers. 53 guards drafted in the 6th/7th rounds in the last 10 years. of the top 50 guards in the league by contract (meaning regular starters), 3 came from the 6th round, and 3 came from the 7th.

 

so yes, you can find a nice starting guard in the 6th or later...at a rate of ~20%.

 

the other 80% of those late-round guard picks will be "busts" or "failures".

 

if your success probability is only 20%, your metric is wrong.

[sirensong 111]

I agree with you in general, just saying if Richard Sherman nets a team an A+ for a 6th rounder it's not unreasonable to grade a 5-7 round pick an F for failing to make the team since the expectation at that round is usually backup or special teamer. Making the roster in those rounds nets a D/C at worst just for providing depth. any form of contribution is a B or above.

 

 

 

 

i'm going to disagree here--i'd say the realistic expectation for a 6th/7th round pick is to make the practice squad as a developmental player. i had a table floating around somewhere that gave the probability of a rookie making the team by round. i can't seem to find it though. the falloff after round 5 was precipitous--IIRC, something like 10-15% of 7th rounders make the 53 their rookie season.

[LunaTick 29]

 

name 3 of them.

 

for example, in 2011, 7 Gs were drafted in the 6th and later. none of them have become regular starters, and several of them are already out of the league.

 

we're talking about percentages here, so this is very relevant.

 

 

edit: just ran down some numbers. 53 guards drafted in the 6th/7th rounds in the last 10 years. of the top 50 guards in the league by contract (meaning regular starters), 3 came from the 6th round, and 3 came from the 7th.

 

so yes, you can find a nice starting guard in the 6th or later...at a rate of ~20%.

 

the other 80% of those late-round guard picks will be "busts" or "failures".

 

if your success probability is only 20%, your metric is wrong.

 

 

As for grading here, I agree. I suggest it be a Pass Fail rating. Did the guy drafted make the team and do anything. Making would be a Pass, doing it a Pass +. inverse true.

I would only grade those that go beyond this and see playing/starting time of any note.

 

Um, I would also suggest you read my post on the Vikings

 

Round 6. 172. Brandon Fusco

Is a guard, is a starter for the past 2 seasons.

 

Actually, I am editting that post. I cannot recall which guard for the Vikes would be demoted if, if the Vikes were to draft a OL with their first pick this year. A pick made if one is going best player available and that player........

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

 

name 3 of them.

 

for example, in 2011, 7 Gs were drafted in the 6th and later. none of them have become regular starters, and several of them are already out of the league.

 

we're talking about percentages here, so this is very relevant.

 

 

edit: just ran down some numbers. 53 guards drafted in the 6th/7th rounds in the last 10 years. of the top 50 guards in the league by contract (meaning regular starters), 3 came from the 6th round, and 3 came from the 7th.

 

so yes, you can find a nice starting guard in the 6th or later...at a rate of ~20%.

 

the other 80% of those late-round guard picks will be "busts" or "failures".

 

if your success probability is only 20%, your metric is wrong.

 

thanks for the numbers. I think they prove my point. Obviously you will have less per round than other rounds but point being, teams are trying to find players who can develop into difference makers. they just assume it will take longer.

 

NFL GM's, scouts, coaches etc. get paid to find contributors in the later rounds as well as to not whiff in the early rounds. If im going to grade a teams draft, Im not likely to be as harsh on the late round picks but they are still worthy of a thoughtful grade.

[Mike Honcho 3,995]

Just came across this article: NFL draft grades are in — for 2011

 

The author and I were in pretty close agreement on the Pack---I'm giving Green Bay the benefit of the doubt on Sherrod still.

[sirensong 111]

a follow-up on this, since it'll be relevant again. here is an analytics blog on historical draft performance:

 

http://datascopeanalytics.com/what-we-think/2012/05/01/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft

 

by the end of the second round, the probability of drafting a starter is only 50%. by the end of the third round, that probability drops to ~30%.

 

by the time you get to the 6th round, any draftee has a >70% chance of being a 'bust', defined as starting for <1 year or playing in <40 games overall.

[The Total Package 0]

Just came across this article: NFL draft grades are in — for 2011

 

The author and I were in pretty close agreement on the Pack---I'm giving Green Bay the benefit of the doubt on Sherrod still.

 

Major fail for calling Henery the best Eagles pick and not mentioning Kelce at all.

[tanatastic 2,061]

lots of guys rating late round picks as Fs. this makes no sense--look at the numbers. if a 7th rounder makes the 53 his rookie year, he's at least a C. if he plays on sundays, he's a B.

No way, this isnt some hand holding pity party. Im not going to give guys an "A for effort". Give a 7th rnd pick a B just for showing up? No sorry, while its unfair, it is what it is and if you dont make the roster as a late round pick you get a bad grade. No one gave Tom Brady a merit badge for showing up as a 6th rnd pick he went out and made a name for himself like any player can do. If a late rounder makes the team and contributes as a solid backup, thats a decent grade for him.

[sirensong 111]

well, it depends on what purpose you think grading serves. if you think it's about hand-holding or trophies for drafting, then i guess you have a point. but if you're concerned with quantitative analysis of expected draft performance against observed draft performance for the purposes of comparative evaluation, then the stuff about tom brady is meaningless.

 

the numbers are very clear--late rounders are unlikely to become regular starters, period. as mentioned in the post you quoted, 6th=7th rounders have a greater than 70% chance of being a 'bust'. that sets the expected value for any 6th-7th rounder as a bust (which some people are calling an F).

 

but if almost every team grades out as an F in the late rounds, then your grading rubric is bad--it doesn't resolve variability in any meaningful way. this is not helpful for analytical purposes--it tells us nothing useful.

 

i don't have time to do it, but if any statisticians on the board want to play with this, it's fertile grounds for inferential testing. as i've posted elsewhere, you can do simple regressions in excel, or download R for free if you have a bit more statistical background and programming knowledge.

[vrabinec 19]

Steelers:

Cam Heyward A-

He's the best DE they'd had since Aaron Smith, but not as good as Smith because he's not quite as disruptive in the passing game. Excellent pick at 31 in the draft.

 

Markus Gilbert C+

He's starting, and he played well down the stretch last year, but you expect more out of a 2nd round RT. If he plays all year this year like he played down the stretch, I'll upgrade it to a B, but that's not something I can assume is gonna happen.

 

Curtis Brown D-

He made the team for a couple years. Played special teams. You expect a lot more from a 3rd rounder.

 

Cortez Allen B+

4th rounder who took a couple years to develop, but he was the Steelers' best CB at the end of last year. Once they switched him over to take the opponents' primary receiver, the Steelers defense did much better against the pass. If you get a starting corner in the 4th round, you are happy with the pick.

 

Chris Carter D+

I wish I could give him an incomplete. He's still on the team, and he contributes. Not spectacular, not starting, but still there, and he might still blossom into a situational player. But, at this time, he's little more than a special teams player, so he can't get a passing grade.

 

Keith Williams F

Cut in training camp in his rookie year. Didn't even show promise.

 

Baron Batch D

He made the team as a rookie, got in and played a couple games, but got cut. Overall, it looks like a lousy draft. But if You get a stud DE and a starting CB, it's not all that bad.