Am i the only one who think Matt Ryan is ready for a breakout?

[Urlacher54 0]

Matt Ryan is being totally unrecognized here. Since coming into the league his FPPG Has gone up each year, and he is surrounded by the likes of Turner/Gonzo/White/Jones.

 

FFtoday has FitzPatrick, Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman all ranked above him. Are you kidding me? Not too mention projections have him having a worst season than last year.

 

He had 28 TD's to 9 picks last year. And 3700 passing yards, and a 91.0 Passer ratings. The Falcons moved up to draft Julio and with Turner aging they are clearly going to be a passing offense.

 

Ryan/White/Jones will be like Manning/Wayne/HArrison

 

He gets better every year and hes not done yet.

 

Matt Ryan Will break 4,000 Passing yards and 30 Passing TD's this year. And you could bet your arse I'm bumping this thread come week 16.

[Cstriker 2]

No he sucks. Delete this thread please.

[De Novo 0]

FFtoday has FitzPatrick, Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman all ranked above him. Are you kidding me? Not too mention projections have him having a worst season than last year.

There's a reason I completely ignore FFToday's projections and rankings. I like a lot of the articles and the boards, but the rankings have been more harmful than beneficial in the past, and I trust the Board's consensus rankings way more.

[Patmos 2]

Perception is a funny thing. I see him ranked as the 6th-8th QB, and I agree with your projections. His ADP is 65, which puts him as the 7th QB off the board. Most other sites are singing his praises as well. My biggest issue is that I want him to stay below the radar until drafts are over!

[Militia 0]

I do see him doing big things this year. But lets not go so far to compare a player we've NEVER seen play in the NFL (J. Jones) to Reggie Wayne. But yes, I think he is being ranked too low.

[De Novo 0]

My biggest issue is that I want him to stay below the radar until drafts are over!

That won't happen. But you're helped by the glut of quality QBs. I've been seeing Bress, Manning, Brady go in the 4th round of mocks. I've seen Rivers in the 5th and Romo in the 7th or 8th. Ryan is a breakout candidate, but there is also a lot of support for Freeman, Bradford, Flacco, and Stafford being ready so there might not be the same rush to jump on Ryan. My guess is his final ADP ends up somewhere in the mid 6th to early 7th round.

[jgcrawfish 232]

It's the year of the Matt part II in my book. Ryan, Schaub, Stafford...in that order. But I think all 3 finish in the top 15 easily and all will be bargains on draft day unless dumbchits keep talking them up.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Perception is a funny thing. I see him ranked as the 6th-8th QB, and I agree with your projections. His ADP is 65, which puts him as the 7th QB off the board. Most other sites are singing his praises as well. My biggest issue is that I want him to stay below the radar until drafts are over!

 

IMO, Ryan may be a little bit under appreciated in Mike's early projections, but he is not "ridiculuously under the radar."

I don't see any justification for ranking him in the 1st tier with Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Peyton, Brady Rivers or Romo this year.

 

That puts him solidly in tier two within spitting distance of Ben, Schaub, Freeman, and Eli. In my most optimistic projections, I don't see him closing in on 4000 yds this year. 30 TDs? An outside possibility.

 

I'm willing to give him 3800 yds, 28 TDs, and about a doz ints. That is giving Roddy 1300 yds, Julio about 650-700, and Gonzo about 625 yds this year. Depending on your scoring system, it puts Ryan right at about 290 - 320 FPTs.

 

I don't think Ryan is under the radar at his current ADP of around 60-65. I'd also be very surprised if he moves much from this current ADP. If anything, I think the fantasy community (but not necessarily fftoday) has Ryan a little over-hyped right now based on "the Julio factor".

 

I certainly would not reach for him any earlier than the mid-6th round. Again, I'm not inclined to reach for any 1st or 2nd tier QB this year, but rather let the draft dictate my choices at this position.

 

So based on current ADPs, I would rather look to Eli in the 7th round or later, and/or Cutler in the 9th as the guys to target.

[Patmos 2]

I agree - I would not reach either, but I will gladly take him in the 6th Round. I think he is just within reach of 4000/30 - putting him at the top of Tier 2 and on the cusp of becoming a Tier 1 (but only at the right price). I have Ryan and Schaub at the top of Tier 2, with a bit of a gap to the other QBs you mentioned, although I too have them in Tier 2. I would only take Ryan or Schaub that early, and I would not sweat it if I don't get either one and will gladly wait a round for one of the others. Once I identify a player within a tier, I let the deciding factor be the playoff schedule. Ryan plays @CAR, JAC, @NO - all fair weather venues, all good matchups.

 

FWIW, I don't pretend to be any good at creating projections, but I do a range of 16 points for each player (because that equates to 1 point per game, since we have a 16-game fantasy schedule). Your 3800/28 is my low-end, and 4000/30 is the high end of my range (1 point per 25 passing yards, 4 points per TD = 16 points total difference). Once within a range/tier, I go "all in" on playoff schedule as the deciding factor.

[Kent 228]

They still run too much. If I walk out of the draft with Ryan as my #1 QB, I'm not feeling real good about it.

[IGotWorms 3,297]

I think last year was the ceiling for Matt Ryan. Call me crazy but I just don't think he is that special. Yeah he might be good enough to get you some wins on a good team. Heck, you could even win the Superbowl with him if you had all the right pieces around him. But I don't think he is a superstar and I don't think he will put up superstar numbers.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

There is reason to believe matt ryan will improve, he is young and he will have more explosive weapons this upcoming year. Matt ryan has been as phenomenal as any young qb not named peyton.

 

Matt ryan is not a target of mine, but it would not shock me if he was in the top 5 at the end of the season.

[ricanrockers 39]

Matt Ryan = Joe Flacco

[Patmos 2]

Matt Ryan = Joe Flacco

 

Except he throws to better receivers in a dome and doesn't face the Steelers twice a year...

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

There's a reason I completely ignore FFToday's projections and rankings. I like a lot of the articles and the boards, but the rankings have been more harmful than beneficial in the past, and I trust the Board's consensus rankings way more.

 

Personally, I like FFToday's rankings because they aren't cookie cutter. There is actually some thought put into it instead of most other sites.

 

Ryan's ADP is 6.07. You have to pick him rounds ahead of E Manning and Roethlisberger, which I would not do. In my league Ryan ended as the 9th overall QB last year and 14th for fantasy points per game, well behind Big Ben. I'm afraid the addition of Julio Jones doesn't do it for me. Not exciting to me at all.

[#1LionFan 0]

Really, you and most others are calling him a breakout candidate....not me tho, he is limited both as a player and in the offense IMO. i would take him no higher than I would have last season. In that last grouping of startable QBs in the 10-12 range (along with the Eli, Freeman, Cutler types).

[MDC 5,876]

I think Ryan might flirt with the top ten but to be honest, I like Eli and Big Ben just as much and think Freeman will have an overall better year - all three should be available after Ryan so he probably won't be on my team. I think Julio Jones was a colossal reach where the Falcons drafted him and he's a rookie coming into the season late because of the lockout. I don't think circumstances have changed much in Atlanta so last year's numbers look like the ceiling to me.

[ricanrockers 39]

Except he throws to better receivers in a dome and doesn't face the Steelers twice a year...

 

 

If you go by stats, their 2010 numbers are mirror images of each other!!

[jgcrawfish 232]

If you go by stats, their 2010 numbers are mirror images of each other!!

 

except Flacco isn't gonna play behind an OL that's gonna have 3 or 4 new people on it. I've given it more thought...and I'm not as high on Ryan as I was initially. O-line that won't get the normal time to gell, RB that has a lot of miles. Even with Julio Jones there I think his #'s stay about the same.

[ricanrockers 39]

IMO - Ryan is nothing more than a QB#2, bye week replacement and a injury fill in for a week. He looks GREAT one week, then he bombs the next week. Too inconsistent for my taste.

[PackYourNut 47]

Atlanta homer here and I would say my only concern is their line. If they can retain most of it and keep Ryan off his back, I;d say there is no question he improves on his stats from last year. This team is transitioning into a juggernaut offense. As shown against GB, their defense is not good enough to stop elite teams. So, there hope will be to outscore them. Look for ATL to throw more then last year for sure!

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Atlanta homer here and I would say my only concern is their line. If they can retain most of it and keep Ryan off his back, I;d say there is no question he improves on his stats from last year. This team is transitioning into a juggernaut offense. As shown against GB, their defense is not good enough to stop elite teams. So, there hope will be to outscore them. Look for ATL to throw more then last year for sure!

How and why are they transitioning? Just because of the addition of J Jones in the draft? They went 13-3 last year, why would they need to transition their offense?

[PackYourNut 47]

How and why are they transitioning? Just because of the addition of J Jones in the draft? They went 13-3 last year, why would they need to transition their offense?

As shown against GB, their defense is not good enough to stop elite teams.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

This team is transitioning into a juggernaut offense. As shown against GB, their defense is not good enough to stop elite teams. So, there hope will be to outscore them. Look for ATL to throw more then last year for sure!

So they're going to assume they need to go aerial and rack up the points because their defense let them down in one playoff game? Nevermind the fact that they went 13-3 with the current offense and defense during the regular season, which included a victory over Green Bay.

 

Uhhh....okay.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I have Turner on my semi-do-not-draft list. I think the toll of high carries has finally caught up and coupled with the O-line issues they will have I believe they will be a completely one-dimensional offense with poor protection for their QB.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I mostly agree. He didn't break 4.0 ypc in the final 4 games of the season. Plus 4 of his tds came against carolina. Sure they face them twice again but that leaves 8 tds over the remaining 14 games.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I have Turner on my semi-do-not-draft list. I think the toll of high carries has finally caught up and coupled with the O-line issues they will have I believe they will be a completely one-dimensional offense with poor protection for their QB.

I was only able to watch a few Falcon games last year. Turner looked overweight and just lowered his head and plowed on many of his carries last year. He was successful against weak defenses or once defenses were worn down. He's a massive RB with little moves, little speed anymore, but he does get into the endzone. The guy is not exciting at all but should definitely still be considered a 2nd tier guy in TD heavy leagues.

[PackYourNut 47]

So they're going to assume they need to go aerial and rack up the points because their defense let them down in one playoff game? Nevermind the fact that they went 13-3 with the current offense and defense during the regular season, which included a victory over Green Bay.

 

Uhhh....okay.

 

Look, if you want to be an ass that's fine. Ignore my insight if you like. However, I am the same guy that said Roddy would be the #1 WR last year and pretty much everyone laughed at me then too. It doesn't take a great FF mind to realize that people in a "home team" city, get more information about that team then people in some other city. So, you can take it for what it's worth or you can act like you're a know-it-all. It also doesnt take a genious to figure out that when you trade away half of your draft to move up and take a WR, that that team is transitioning to a passing team.

 

And last but certainly not least, if you would have watched that first GB game, you would know that ATL should have lost that game too.

[abair058 0]

I was only able to watch a few Falcon games last year. Turner looked overweight and just lowered his head and plowed on many of his carries last year. He was successful against weak defenses or once defenses were worn down. He's a massive RB with little moves, little speed anymore, but he does get into the endzone. The guy is not exciting at all but should definitely still be considered a 2nd tier guy in TD heavy leagues.

 

Jarvis, exactly what I think too. Had him on my team last year and I definately won't be taking him this year. That and the fumble he had in week 16 at the 1 yard line cost me the championship.

 

Won't get as many carries this year and only reason he had decent stats was he was getting over 25 carries a game. Not a RB that can get 100 yards on 15 carries.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Look, if you want to be an ass that's fine. Ignore my insight if you like. However, I am the same guy that said Roddy would be the #1 WR last year and pretty much everyone laughed at me then too. It doesn't take a great FF mind to realize that people in a "home team" city, get more information about that team then people in some other city. So, you can take it for what it's worth or you can act like you're a know-it-all. It also doesnt take a genious to figure out that when you trade away half of your draft to move up and take a WR, that that team is transitioning to a passing team.

 

And last but certainly not least, if you would have watched that first GB game, you would know that ATL should have lost that game too.

Touchy. Maybe I should no longer emoticon because it gets guys worked up.

 

Roddy White was not #1 in my league last year so I guess it depends on your scoring. He was 6th overall in my league.

 

All I'm saying is I'd be very surprised if they make a major change to their phylosophy. Their defense was above average last year, 5th overall in scoring defense.

 

I didn't see the regular season game with the Packers but the numbers tell me Atlanta held the Pack to 7 points less than their per game average.

 

Maybe you are correct and they are going to now give the keys to Ryan, hoping he can take the step to become Brees or Peyton Manning, but to me it doesn't seem like their system is bad enough to need an overhaul.

[Urlacher54 0]

 

Matt Ryan Will break 4,000 Passing yards and 30 Passing TD's this year. And you could bet your arse I'm bumping this thread come week 16.

 

Welp. Week 16. 4071 yards and 27 TDs. I was close. Not too mention still got another week.

[JT 137]

Welp. Week 16. 4071 yards and 27 TDs. I was close. Not too mention still got another week.

 

Not a big Atlanta fan, so don't make it a point to see a lot of Ryan. That said, it's hard for me to imagine his stats are in that range given what I have seen of him.

 

Every couple weeks I see crazy stats from him. Yet, when I see him play, he's about as unimpressive as they come.

 

Reminds me of the old adage: who you gonna believe, me or your lyin' eyes?

[stonewall 647]

Welp. Week 16. 4071 yards and 27 TDs. I was close. Not too mention still got another week.

 

Good call on a high-end second tier QB. He has weapons, but I noticed that Ryan owners were not in the playoffs in any of my 6 leagues.

 

To me, Matt Ryan is very Eli Manning-ish. Good.....but boom or bust. Definitely a good deal for his ADP last draft. Will likely be overvalued next draft.

[murf74 461]

Good call on a high-end second tier QB. He has weapons, but I noticed that Ryan owners were not in the playoffs in any of my 6 leagues.

 

To me, Matt Ryan is very Eli Manning-ish. Good.....but boom or bust. Definitely a good deal for his ADP last draft. Will likely be overvalued next draft.

 

You nailed it, just checked my league scoring and Matt is 0.5 pts ahead of Eli in total scoring.

[IronMikeBison 0]

Welp. Week 16. 4071 yards and 27 TDs. I was close. Not too mention still got another week.

 

u were right but the guy was really inconsistent. alot of ppl gave up on him before the bye week. he was good after week 8 if ppl had patience.by that time u were probably already 2-6 playing this bum the first 8 weeks.

[Gladiators 1,902]

u were right but the guy was really inconsistent. alot of ppl gave up on him before the bye week. he was good after week 8 if ppl had patience.by that time u were probably already 2-6 playing this bum the first 8 weeks.

 

I started out 10-0 in a 14 team league, ended up 11-2 in the regular season, and lost in the championship playing Matt Ryan every week but the bye.

[420allstars 13]

I started out 10-0 in a 14 team league, ended up 11-2 in the regular season, and lost in the championship playing Matt Ryan every week but the bye.

 

my dynasty team featuring Matty Ice went 9-4, he had a couple solid games in the playoffs and I lost to a insainly stacked team in the ship..

 

As a Dynasty owner I am more then happy to be able to plug in Ryan for the next 10 years and not have to worry about the QB spot..

[IronMikeBison 0]

I started out 10-0 in a 14 team league, ended up 11-2 in the regular season, and lost in the championship playing Matt Ryan every week but the bye.

 

good to know that u can win getting 6 and 8 points a couple weeks at your qb position. but not everyone can. He was good week 2, but mediocre at best the other 6 games and he had an early week 8 bye. it was tough for ppl to hold on this guy. Outside of week 2. his first 7 games average around 12 points. simply he was projected top 10 but performed about top 20 his first 8 weeks.

 

The guy did perform well the 2nd half, ill give him that.

[Gladiators 1,902]

good to know that u can win getting 6 and 8 points a couple weeks at your qb position. but not everyone can. He was good week 2, but mediocre at best the other 6 games and he had an early week 8 bye. it was tough for ppl to hold on this guy. Outside of week 2. his first 7 games average around 12 points. simply he was projected top 10 but performed about top 20 his first 8 weeks.

 

The guy did perform well the 2nd half, ill give him that.

 

This is a 6 point per TD pass Yahoo league, but that' doesn't change things a whole lot when comparing him to the other QBs. His points for the first 8 weeks in my league were:

 

1 - 8.76

2 - 28.40

3 - 14.40

4 - 20.24

5 - 9.58

6 - 19.22

7 - 16.92

 

It worked out okay for me drafting him as the 13th QB off the board and in late 6th round. My strategy, as it is almost every year, was to draft a QB late that I thought could finish top 10. I didn't draft him in the 6th expecting him to put up 2 td's every week. I know I can't expect that when drafting my QB later than most teams and not grabbing one in the first 2...maybe 3 rounds. My team certainly wasn't stacked, but my first 5 picks were AP, Fitz, SJax, Mathews, and Lloyd...AJ Green in the 9th helped. Start 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex, and 1 at the other spots.