Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Breshad Perriman, Ravens

[The Football Guru 211]

In what can only be considered coincidence (or is it?), I compared Perriman to Torrey Smith, whose spot he will replace in Baltimore. Perriman is an interesting prospect in that his measurables say he should have dominated college football, but his numbers did not suggest that he did. The UCF product is a 6-2, 214-pound wideout with 4.25 speed, but falls in this draft in large part because he dropped almost 14 percent of his targets in 2014. Of the receivers selected thus far, I believe Perriman is the mostly likely to NOT live up to his draft status because I'm not sure how a receiver will improve his drop rate against better coverage. However, he's a top 3-4 receiver in this class if he does and I'm not sure he could have found a much better fit than Baltimore, where he will catch balls from Joe Flacco, who is one of the few quarterbacks with the arm necessary to take advantage of Perriman's speed. I believe he will probably be a Day 1 starter in Smith's old spot, but will be hard-pressed to achieve anything more than WR4 value in 2015. In rookie drafts, I tend to believe he is a late first-round pick.

[Vikings4ever 496]

I'd only draft him in a league that gives points for drawing pass interference penalties.

[Challenger 72]

Lets get those PI flags!

[petekrum 20]

A sucker pick, both for the Ravens and in fantasy. He'll have an occasional big game because of the speed, but you better get used to a lot of 3 catches for 42 yards type of days.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

The ravens, as good of a franchise as they are, have zero creativity on offense. This is torrey smith 2.0. They will send him deep every single play while he draws a double team.

[Challenger 72]

Hi Guru, how does he compare to Kelvin Benjamin? Kelvin also has issue with drops, but flourish so far.

[Herbivore 905]

Hi Guru, how does he compare to Kelvin Benjamin? Kelvin also has issue with drops, but flourish so far.

 

looks about 3 inches short.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

I guess I'm in total disagreement with most everyone. I watched him play in college. No other top WR had such lackluster QB play. Most of his charged "drops" were from him having to change direction while running full speed to adjust for a horribly thrown ball. Look at his game tape. He wasn't just a deep threat. This guy is fluid in his hips, makes great adjustments on the fly and has speed to burn. He will fight for the ball and can usually outrun double coverage without an issue.

 

Now, he did have some drops. There is no denying that or getting around it. The vast majority though were not his fault. He was charged with a "drop" simply because the ball was in his vicinity. He was also charged with at least one drop when he was triple coveraged on a hail mary type play. How is that his fault? lol

 

This is just my opinion, but I have him as the 3rd best WR in this draft class, with every single bit of potential that White has. Torrey Smith was a one trick pony, which is why he wasn't a first round pick. He never wanted to get hit and if he didn't outrun the coverage, he wasn't getting the ball. This kid is a Wide Receiver first and blazing fast second. He fared well against press coverage, runs good routes (not just the go route) and his separation skills are second to none. Smith struggled to get off the line sometimes, and I highly suspect some other WR's drafted in this class will have the same issue (Parker for one).

 

So.... My opinion is this; He is an improved version of T. Smith. Let's call him TS 2.0. He's an upgrade. He's bigger, faster, can run more routes and doesn't struggle getting off the line. That's not just an improved version, it's a vastly improved version. The only real question I have with him is how Baltimore will use him. They did try early in the season last year to get TS involved, but he can only do one thing well. That isn't the case here.

 

For the record, I'm not a college football fan, but scout players for my rookie drafts. I wanted the Rams to draft him and would have taken him over any other WR's than Cooper or White. I think he's in their class. He didn't once make excuses for those "drops", even though every scouting report I've read on the kid blames the QB for over half of them. I highly respect Cossell's rankings and he has Perriman on a level playing field with Cooper & White. That's saying a lot. He's going to be a target of mine in every dynasty league I'm in.

[BobSanders_33 127]

I guess I'm in total disagreement with most everyone. I watched him play in college. No other top WR had such lackluster QB play. Most of his charged "drops" were from him having to change direction while running full speed to adjust for a horribly thrown ball. Look at his game tape. He wasn't just a deep threat. This guy is fluid in his hips, makes great adjustments on the fly and has speed to burn. He will fight for the ball and can usually outrun double coverage without an issue.

 

Now, he did have some drops. There is no denying that or getting around it. The vast majority though were not his fault. He was charged with a "drop" simply because the ball was in his vicinity. He was also charged with at least one drop when he was triple coveraged on a hail mary type play. How is that his fault? lol

 

This is just my opinion, but I have him as the 3rd best WR in this draft class, with every single bit of potential that White has. Torrey Smith was a one trick pony, which is why he wasn't a first round pick. He never wanted to get hit and if he didn't outrun the coverage, he wasn't getting the ball. This kid is a Wide Receiver first and blazing fast second. He fared well against press coverage, runs good routes (not just the go route) and his separation skills are second to none. Smith struggled to get off the line sometimes, and I highly suspect some other WR's drafted in this class will have the same issue (Parker for one).

 

So.... My opinion is this; He is an improved version of T. Smith. Let's call him TS 2.0. He's an upgrade. He's bigger, faster, can run more routes and doesn't struggle getting off the line. That's not just an improved version, it's a vastly improved version. The only real question I have with him is how Baltimore will use him. They did try early in the season last year to get TS involved, but he can only do one thing well. That isn't the case here.

 

For the record, I'm not a college football fan, but scout players for my rookie drafts. I wanted the Rams to draft him and would have taken him over any other WR's than Cooper or White. I think he's in their class. He didn't once make excuses for those "drops", even though every scouting report I've read on the kid blames the QB for over half of them. I highly respect Cossell's rankings and he has Perriman on a level playing field with Cooper & White. That's saying a lot. He's going to be a target of mine in every dynasty league I'm in.

 

Great post. I like the player and situation. With Tressman running the offense this year he could put up some decent numbers and be highly effective in best ball and tournament play.

[The Football Guru 211]

Hi Guru, how does he compare to Kelvin Benjamin? Kelvin also has issue with drops, but flourish so far.

I never really thought about that comparison when I was writing up his draft profile, but I guess there are some similarities. Yes, he is three inches shorter and 20+ pounds lighter than KB, but his 4.25 is about 0.4 faster than Benjamin. Both had significant drop issues in college and, even though KB had a great statistical line as a rookie, he led the NFL with 10 drops. Also, I'd characterize KB much more as a high-point receiver and Perriman much more as a vertical (or deep-ball) receiver.

 

With that said, I think he will be at least as good as Torrey Smith, who was more raw coming out of Maryland than Perriman. At least with Perriman, he ran his fair share of underneath routes in college. And as I said in his draft profile, if a player can make the spectacular catch and struggles occasionally with "normal" throws, then his problem is more likely focus than bad hands. And as I said at the top of the thread, I think the fit in Baltimore is the best he could have asked for. Even it he is no better than Smith, that isn't so bad. In the end, however, I agree with Upper Class Trash for the most part that he will be better than Smith. (I disagree with his opinion that Perriman is in Cooper and White's class as an overall prospect).

 

I have him valued as a late first-rounder in my upcoming 12-team experts' rookie draft, but I think I'm close to a trade that will allow me to move up from 1.9 to 1.4, so I won't have to consider him if that trade happens. For dynasty purposes, I have Perriman as the sixth-best rookie WR prospect.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Doug will you be putting out a rookie top 12 or 24 at some point?

 

Great work as always!

[The Football Guru 211]

No, but I will be doing the dynasty rankings by the end of the month. And if it helps, I could post my league's rookie draft if you guys would like that.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Yeah for sure. A bunch of my leagues might kick off our drafts this weekend. We've got that rookie fever.

 

I have 1.3 which is a lock for Gurley-Cooper-White right now for me and the 1.06 which I'm not sure what to do with. Might grab Parker if he's there. A bit early for Abdullah but I do have J Bell so maybe I trade down or up but I have time to think over 1.06 strategy.

 

It's crazy how much things shift on the rookie rankings sometimes now till after pre season.

[BobSanders_33 127]

Yeah for sure. A bunch of my leagues might kick off our drafts this weekend. We've got that rookie fever.

 

I have 1.3 which is a lock for Gurley-Cooper-White right now for me and the 1.06 which I'm not sure what to do with. Might grab Parker if he's there. A bit early for Abdullah but I do have J Bell so maybe I trade down or up but I have time to think over 1.06 strategy.

 

It's crazy how much things shift on the rookie rankings sometimes now till after pre season.

 

I like Perriman better than Parker. The long term QB system and coaching system are better in Baltimore. In Miami there is already another very good young WR with Landry. Perriman has an aging Steve Smith as his competition and his skills fit perfect with Flacco's big arm and Marc Tressman gets production from his WRs.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ That's good advice. Appreciate it. I do agree that Perriman landed in the best possible situation for his skill set.

[stonewall 647]

 

 

I have the 1.06 which I'm not sure what to do with. Might grab Parker if he's there.

 

Grab David Johnson and don't look back, my friend.

[petekrum 20]

Grab David Johnson and don't look back, my friend.

You might want to look back.

[BobSanders_33 127]

 

Grab David Johnson and don't look back, my friend.

 

I would say too early on David Johnson. I watched him torch my Hawkeyes but it was abusing redshirt freshman walk-on LBs in the passing game. He runs too upright. He doesn't run with the power you would expect from a bigger back.

 

I would assume in rookie drafts Gurley and Gordon would be clear numbers 1 and 2. After that Cooper, White, and Yeldon all have better talent and situation. At 1.6 you would likely have a choice between Winston, Mariota, Perriman, Angelor, and Parker. All better talent in better situations.

 

If someone was going to target a RB in that spot I would rather have Abdullah or Duke Johnson. I don't love Duke Johnson's spot in Cleveland with Crowell and West but clearly the staff are not sold on those two and Cleveland has an elite run blocking OL. In Detroit Abdullah has a promising young OL and only Jo Bell in front of him.