The Others 2018 - QBs

[The Football Guru 210]

As I did last year, I want to take a quick peek at some of the other prospects at each of the four fantasy positions who should hear their names called over the first 4-5 rounds. I will post a short write-up about the next handful or so of players that I didn't profile (click on my archive to see the players I did profile) and put them in the order I would draft them, all things being equal. Obviously, I cannot account for such things as scheme fit and will only use off-field concerns as a tie-breaker, if only because I only know about what is being reported and don't have my own security team to provide all the intimate details we need to have in most cases. At the end of the four position groups, I'll post a pre-draft top 40-50, depending on how many I can actually get done.

1. Josh Rosen

2. Sam Darnold

3. Lamar Jackson

4. Baker Mayfield

5. Josh Allen

6. Mason Rudolph

NFL Comp: Trent Dilfer

Rudolph had plenty of help from his scheme, supporting cast (receivers James Washington and Marcell Ateman will both get drafted) and the lack of quality defenses in the Big 12, but there may not be a better or more accurate deep-ball thrower in this draft class. As one might imagine after making such a statement, his career-high completion percentage (65) wasn't simply a product of typical spread offense throws (although there are plenty of those). Rudolph isn't much of an athlete and offers virtually nothing as a runner despite what his 17 career rushing touchdowns might suggest, but he offers moves and slides well inside the pocket and does many of things in the passing game (keeps eyes downfield in a less than perfect pocket, moves defenders with his eyes, etc.) that NFL coaches want from their young signal-callers. I see flashes of Kurt Warner from him, although I believe his current skill-set is a bit more reminiscent of Dilfer, who was the No. 6 overall pick in 1994. He may go late in the first round so his new team can exercise his fifth-year option when that time comes, but he is more of a second-round talent at this point.

7. Mike White

NFL Comp: Matt Schaub

Take one look at the difference between White's production as a junior and as a senior. Take my word for it, there was a serious drop-off despite attempting 144 more passes. It's not hard to figure out why, however. Head coach Jeff Brohm left for Purdue, top receiver Taywan Taylor graduated and was a third-round pick of the Tennessee Titans, Anthony Wales (he of the 1,621 rushing yards and 27 rushing scores in 2016) also exhausted his eligibility and the offensive line fell apart, as White was sacked 44 times as a senior after going down only 18 times as a junior. White has the arm talent one would expect from a former standout high-school pitcher and understands when he needs to throw his fastball versus when he needs to throw his change-up. He showed the ability to make full-field reads as well and can throw into tight windows, so he's got a chance to become a NFL starter down the road. He's not very mobile though, needs to be protected well and doesn't always process information as quickly as he should, so he is very much a project.

8. Kyle Lauletta

NFL Comp: Colt McCoy

The recipe to attract NFL Draft attention as a FCS player is usually to dominate at that level of competition before turning heads at one of the college all-star games if the player is fortunate enough to get an invite. Check and check. Lauletta took home Senior Bowl MVP honors and did nothing to hurt himself at the NFL Combine. The first-team All-Colonial Athletic Association selection isn't going to wow anyone with his athleticism (he's not a statute) or arm strength (it's good enough to hit a receiver in stride 40 yards down the field, as he did in the Senior Bowl), but it doesn't take much time observing him to see he what made him special at Richmond: timing and anticipation. Given the absence of any special trait, however, Lauletta's pro upside is probably that of a high-level backup capable of winning in a game or two in relief. Like McCoy, NFL defenses will probably expose him if he is forced to play much more than that.

9. Luke Falk

NFL Comp: Brad Johnson

Falk is attempting to become the first of a long list of "Air Raid" quarterbacks to do something meaningful at the pro level. Washington State HC Mike Leach makes sure his signal-callers get plenty of practice throwing the ball, but the true spread nature of his offense typically leaves his students unprepared for the NFL. Falk has some redeeming qualities (quick release, tough, moves subtly inside the pocket, quick through his progressions), but he absorbed 125 sacks during his career, isn't all that mobile and showed a frustrating tendency to hold the ball too long late in 2017. His production fell off a bit as a junior and dramatically as senior after his breakout sophomore campaign, which is troubling even if we account for a drop-off in his protection and supporting cast. Almost 75 percent of his throws came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and his arm strength is average at best, so it's not as if he put a lot of "pro throws" on tape either. He seems to feel much more comfortable against man defense than zone, which suggests he wants to see receivers open up first rather than throw to a spot. Falk has good size (6-4, 225) and processes information quickly, so he's going to draw some interest as a long-term NFL backup. The absence of great athleticism, arm strength and experience making NFL throws figures to be too much to overcome.

[Kopy 489]

Kyle Allen - Houston

I don't know anything about him other than Seattle loves him.

At least that's what my peeps say.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

I think #8 and #9 will end up having better careers than 4 of the top 6.

[The Football Guru 210]

I think #8 and #9 will end up having better careers than 4 of the top 6.

 

I want to like Lauletta and Falk more than I do, but I didn't see it on the 3-4 games of theirs I watched. I do agree with what I think is your point, which is four of the top six QBs will disappoint. I don't like any of these guys as much as I did Wentz two years ago or Watson last year. The only reason I don't have Jackson at #1 is because I think he needs a flexible OC more than the first two. Give him that, and we're talking about a guy who could/should tear up the league if he can learn to quit taking on defenders as a runner.

[listen2me 23 1,534]

 

I want to like Lauletta and Falk more than I do, but I didn't see it on the 3-4 games of theirs I watched. I do agree with what I think is your point, which is four of the top six QBs will disappoint. I don't like any of these guys as much as I did Wentz two years ago or Watson last year. The only reason I don't have Jackson at #1 is because I think he needs a flexible OC more than the first two. Give him that, and we're talking about a guy who could/should tear up the league if he can learn to quit taking on defenders as a runner.

I just feel these guys who can run, can create a lot more passing lanes in college. Defenders are no where near as disciplined nor fast.

 

Look at all the top QBs in college who could run. It opens up so much because there is 1 or 2 reads. They begin to rely on their legs creating wide open receivers and it just doesn't translate like that in the NFL. At the end of the day you have to operate first from the pocket like Rodgers, and then he has some legs to do everything else.

 

Not saying he cannot be good. But an OCcreating their offense around a running QB means what? Read option? Allowing him to run all the time? Just doesn't work in the NFL. Guys with legs in college get comfortable looking at 1 guy then taking off. Or creating such a scare with their legs (Jackson ran SO MANY TIMES) that it creates easy passes that they will not see in the NFL.

 

I have followed the Bills. And Tyrod is okay. But largely in part of his legs. Obviously Jackson is more of a prospect than he was. But he takes care of the ball because he is afraid to throw a pick. He would take off so early. Or try to extend plays so long that he would just take stupid sacks.

[The Football Guru 210]

I just feel these guys who can run, can create a lot more passing lanes in college. Defenders are no where near as disciplined nor fast.

 

Look at all the top QBs in college who could run. It opens up so much because there is 1 or 2 reads. They begin to rely on their legs creating wide open receivers and it just doesn't translate like that in the NFL. At the end of the day you have to operate first from the pocket like Rodgers, and then he has some legs to do everything else.

 

Not saying he cannot be good. But an OCcreating their offense around a running QB means what? Read option? Allowing him to run all the time? Just doesn't work in the NFL. Guys with legs in college get comfortable looking at 1 guy then taking off. Or creating such a scare with their legs (Jackson ran SO MANY TIMES) that it creates easy passes that they will not see in the NFL.

 

I have followed the Bills. And Tyrod is okay. But largely in part of his legs. Obviously Jackson is more of a prospect than he was. But he takes care of the ball because he is afraid to throw a pick. He would take off so early. Or try to extend plays so long that he would just take stupid sacks.

 

Check out my profile on Jackson, specifically the part regarding accuracy under strengths. He makes a shocking number of "in the bucket" throws for a "running quarterback."

[The Football Guru 210]

One of the reasons Jackson was the last of the five quarterbacks I profiled was because I was reasonably certain he was going to be my fifth-ranked QB. Needless to say, I was impressed.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

 

I want to like Lauletta and Falk more than I do, but I didn't see it on the 3-4 games of theirs I watched. I do agree with what I think is your point, which is four of the top six QBs will disappoint. I don't like any of these guys as much as I did Wentz two years ago or Watson last year. The only reason I don't have Jackson at #1 is because I think he needs a flexible OC more than the first two. Give him that, and we're talking about a guy who could/should tear up the league if he can learn to quit taking on defenders as a runner.

 

Yeah, I think the top guys of this draft are simply the best of the group, but not necessarily top prospects. I don't think I'd rank any of these guys over Mariotta or Winston either and not over most of the class of '14 either.

[The Football Guru 210]

 

Yeah, I think the top guys of this draft are simply the best of the group, but not necessarily top prospects. I don't think I'd rank any of these guys over Mariotta or Winston either and not over most of the class of '14 either.

 

Agreed. Thankfully I have been busy with my other draft writing or else I'm sure I would have found myself in a Twitter argument with some one about drafting a likely above-average QB at best over players like Barkley and Chubb. Slight above-average QB play only keeps teams from getting better players down the road. This notion of GMs would rather have a B+ quarterback over a Pro Bowler at DE, CB or even RB drives me nuts.