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Wilson3b

Draft strategy

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Looking for some strategy help. I'm playing for years in a 0.5 ppr league. The most important league, with my best friends. Rosters are standards but this season we adding a WR. So it goes 2rb 3wr and a flex.
How the Change should Change the draft strategy and player rankings? Should I take a WR from the middle of the first round? Would love to hear some opinions.

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It wouldn't change my strategy much. I would probably just be a little more focused on finding another start able receiver after the first few rounds, but it wouldn't change my draft strategy for the first few

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Lets sat top 5 picks are Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Elliot, Brown. Who will you take number 6 (remind you its also 0.5ppr)? Kamara? Barkley? Anyone else?

It wouldn't change my strategy much. I would probably just be a little more focused on finding another start able receiver after the first few rounds, but it wouldn't change my draft strategy for the first few

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Lets sat top 5 picks are Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Elliot, Brown. Who will you take number 6 (remind you its also 0.5ppr)? Kamara? Barkley? Anyone else?

I have the 6th pick so this is where I am focusing on actually. There are a lot of good options at this point. My guy in that spot is probably Fournette. I just have a feeling about him this year. Yeah Bortles doesn't scare any defenses, but there is a good amount of offensive talent on that team. Enough so that defenses should need to be honest. Kamara is going to have some big games while Ingram is out, but he is not a work horse. He is not going to touch the ball as many times as Fournette. Gordon is going to get a ton of touches on a pretty good offense, so if you want the safest pick, it probably is Gordon. Mcaffery in full ppr is a near top 5 back imo. .5 ppr, he is still close.

 

I just love the way Fournette runs. Talent wise he is the best guy at that spot imo.

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Pick the highest guy in your rankings.

 

You guys spend so much time thinking about something that is 95% luck

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Pick the highest guy in your rankings.

 

You guys spend so much time thinking about something that is 95% luck

I do strategy, tiered players are plentiful and I get the same value as you a round or 2 later after the first 3 rounds.

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I do strategy, tiered players are plentiful and I get the same value as you a round or 2 later after the first 3 rounds.

Probably not.

 

Fantasy football is almost all luck. I used to spend a ton of time on it when I was 12. Then I realized all the prep was almost useless and a giant waste of time.

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Pick the highest guy in your rankings.

 

You guys spend so much time thinking about something that is 95% luck

So you are saying that there is a 95% chance that Marlon Mack will get as many fantasy points as Ezekial Elliott or LeVeon Bell? And Taylor Gabriel has a 95% chance to equal Antonio Brown?

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So you are saying that there is a 95% chance that Marlon Mack will get as many fantasy points as Ezekial Elliott or LeVeon Bell? And Taylor Gabriel has a 95% chance to equal Antonio Brown?

No. But 100% of people already know this.

 

Fantasy football is mostly luck. Everyone can agree.

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No. But 100% of people already know this.

 

Fantasy football is mostly luck. Everyone can agree.

For your average player, sure. For those that put in some extra study and prep time, they are consistently winning

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For your average player, sure. For those that put in some extra study and prep time, they are consistently winning

I constantly compete well because I follow football year round more than most.

 

The prep is busy work. Sure think about sleepers or aho you like. But spending hours for days thinking about your 100 dollar league is silly.

 

Trust me I was that guy at one point. It's busy work. Some may enjoy it I guess.

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Probably not.

 

Fantasy football is almost all luck. I used to spend a ton of time on it when I was 12. Then I realized all the prep was almost useless and a giant waste of time.

You brought up luck after u said just pick from a list, my only point was after the cream is off the top you start getting a lot of tiering players that are same value, allows me to draft guys I'm targeting because I know if I went by your list I wont get them. As for the luck part, yea your absolutely right these days.

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No. But 100% of people already know this.

 

Fantasy football is mostly luck. Everyone can agree.

I guess everyone but me and the rest of the fantasy community. Luck or bad luck is only related to injuries in FF. The rest is predicting a players usage, skill level, and making roster adjustments when things are not going as you thought.

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You brought up luck after u said just pick from a list, my only point was after the cream is off the top you start getting a lot of tiering players that are same value, allows me to draft guys I'm targeting because I know if I went by your list I wont get them. As for the luck part, yea your absolutely right these days.

I agree that value is real.

 

But as far as projecting players im not so full of myself to say I can make correct calls more than others. It is a crapshoot. Im a draft nerd and follow football big time. That gives me an edge. But I wont act like I have some projection skill.

 

A guy who spends 1000 hours on prep isnt separating himself that much from a guy who goes to fftoday ppr rankings and draft strictly from the rankings do no prep work.

 

Not to mention injury.

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I guess everyone but me and the rest of the fantasy community. Luck or bad luck is only related to injuries in FF. The rest is predicting a players usage, skill level, and making roster adjustments when things are not going as you thought.

So in other words you are full of yourself.

 

Give me your top 20 WRs then lets look back after the year is done.

 

Yes in season stuff helps. It boils down to paying attention. But projecting players is a crapshoot.

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I constantly compete well because I follow football year round more than most.

 

That's just it. You spend all year "prepping" for fantasy football even though you do it simply because you just like to follow football. I do as well. A lot of people don't do this and need a couple months of catch up time.

 

So for you to say you compete well in fantasy because you follow football all year goes against your own logic of FF being all luck. Otherwise, even those who don't know football would compete just as well.

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I agree that value is real.

 

But as far as projecting players im not so full of myself to say I can make correct calls more than others. It is a crapshoot. Im a draft nerd and follow football big time. That gives me an edge. But I wont act like I have some projection skill.

 

A guy who spends 1000 hours on prep isnt separating himself that much from a guy who goes to fftoday ppr rankings and draft strictly from the rankings do no prep work.

 

Not to mention injury.

 

You must of not read my strong disagreement article with this site over Trey Burton and everyone else here being in the top 5.

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That's just it. You spend all year "prepping" for fantasy football even though you do it simply because you just like to follow football. I do as well. A lot of people don't do this and need a couple months of catch up time.

I follow football in general. Know football more than your average player.

 

Im saying the hands on fantasy prep work is busy work.

 

Hey I like debating football and how players will do. I just am not going to spend days formulating rankings.

 

 

The edge I do have over others knowing football I realize is minimal. We could talk and you could ask me where the 200 top players went to college and I aould get 95% of them. But that isnt going to help me a ton in fantasy football.

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You must of not read my strong disagreement article with this site over Trey Burton and everyone else here being in the top 5.

Thats fine. Who is to say you are right? It is a crapshoot.

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Thats fine. Who is to say you are right? It is a crapshoot.

I'm not sure why you play fantasy football, You 1 of them people who just want to be involved in something ? You know so much but yet I can send a 10 year old to play like you.

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I follow football in general. Know football more than your average player.

 

Im saying the hands on fantasy prep work is busy work.

 

Hey I like debating football and how players will do. I just am not going to spend days formulating rankings.

 

 

The edge I do have over others knowing football I realize is minimal. We could talk and you could ask me where the 200 top players went to college and I aould get 95% of them. But that isnt going to help me a ton in fantasy football.

So why are you wasting your time on this site? The process of having discussions about FF which is set up here is exactly the opposite of what you believe should be. What is the actual point you are trying to make to the folks on this site? And who cares if you know where players went to college? That is not relevant for the majority of the discussions.

 

Draft strategy is a key topic.

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Always found FF analogous to poker. Any one hand/week the player with better cards/players can lose by nothing more than luck. But over time the smarter/better players usually persevere. Skill to luck ratio may be 53 to 47% but that is enough wiggle room to make your mark on the league you play in.

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I'm not sure why you play fantasy football, You 1 of them people who just want to be involved in something ? You know so much but yet I can send a 10 year old to play like you.

I know a lot about real football.

 

Im not so full of myself to think I can predict how the season will go.

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Always found FF analogous to poker. Any one hand/week the player with better cards/players can lose by nothing more than luck. But over time the smarter/better players usually persevere. Skill to luck ratio may be 53 to 47% but that is enough wiggle room to make your mark on the league you play in.

I agree. The edge you have is minimal though. Not enough to spend days upon days thinking about where to rank Jarvis Landry. Especially when anyone can get a freak injury.

 

Im here becauee I do like debating football. But I also realize that none of us know how the season will go. The prep work is close to useless. Not useless but close.

 

Lets all give our rankings out and see how they do. There will be no rhyme or reason to who is closest to getting them right.

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Draft strategy is a key topic.

You can win with almost any strategy if you happen to pick the guys who stay healthy and perform.

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You can win with almost any strategy if you happen to pick the guys who stay healthy and perform.

Tiers are really important especially in auction leagues. It's easy to get lost in your auction if you make a bad move.

 

In snake drafts rankings are important because of both seeing value and not missing out on a run at 1 position because you may have to wait as long as 22 picks before you get your next player.

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Tiers are really important especially in auction leagues. It's easy to get lost in your auction if you make a bad move.

 

In snake drafts rankings are important because of both seeing value and not missing out on a run at 1 position because you may have to wait as long as 22 picks before you get your next player.

I can agree.

 

I just think rankings and predictions are a crapshoot.

 

Especially in this day when any person can go off rankings of any of the 1000s online.

 

Back in the newspaper days it was a little more skill based or football knowledge based. Not much but a little more.

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Back to the topic....in similar situation. .5 ppr 7th pick. We have a 2nd flex rather than 3rd wr. Wr is so deep I wouldn't change strategy if I were you. I'm going safe first 2 rounds then upside rest of way. If I have gordon/green 1st 2 rounds i will feel confident and flexible to go any direction with my draft. Hope to grab some rookie rbs in middle of draft esp.

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Back to the topic....in similar situation. .5 ppr 7th pick. I'm going safe first 2 rounds then upside rest of way. If I have gordon/green 1st 2 rounds i will feel confident and flexible to go any direction with my draft. Hope to grab some rookie rbs in middle of draft esp.

I generally feel like this more and more. Just get a 1st and 2nd rounder who doesnt bust and give yourself a chance.

 

Finding that guy is a crapshoot though. I generally stay away from real injury prone guys or guys who's team took a big hit.

 

A guy like Melvin Gordon looks pretty safe there at 7

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You don't have to have a 1st round WR. You have to have your 3rd WR be startable every week. So draft accordingly.

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Same here, we added a wr and we got rid of kicker. Will see how it goes. I’m not changing my draft plan at all.

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Pick the highest guy in your rankings.

You guys spend so much time thinking about something that is 95% luck

This is correct, of course. But if you get enjoyment out of worrying about this stuff, knock yourself out.

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I was in a 3WR league, years ago. I didn't adjust, and was playing at-best a FLEX player as my WR3.. Once you have two RBs, if players are "close" in your rankings, lean WR until you get three you feel comfortable starting EVERY WEEK. And, grab a 4th WR sooner rather than later. Bye weeks, injuries, and you could FLEX a WR4.

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You can win with almost any strategy if you happen to pick the guys who stay healthy and perform.

A lot of guys will give you crap but your mentality is 100% correct and people just don’t understand the concept of variables well enough to accept it. FF is layers upon layers of variables we have no control over. The things we do control are more about not being an idiot than being smart.

 

Listen, I’ll tell you right now a major reason why FF is almost 90% luck. The head to head format. You have zero control over your opponent outscoring you. I have won 60-59 and I’ve lost 150-156.

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Listen, I’ll tell you right now a major reason why FF is almost 90% luck. The head to head format. You have zero control over your opponent outscoring you. I have won 60-59 and I’ve lost 150-156.

That's a league set up flaw that can be corrected.

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That's a league set up flaw that can be corrected.

 

I know, its just that head to head is the most fun way to play. FF is popular because Sally in accounting had her kicker score 22 while both your stud RBs combined for 7 points and your top 3 QB handed off 3 plunge tds. Sally now feels like a genius and gets to brag all week at the water cooler. The illusion of control is what gives people that competitive feeling and makes it fun.
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I'm drafting out of the first spot and have no problem going RB-RB-RB with my first three picks this season because I think the drop off is huge after that. With that said, I really love the value in WRs in the middle to late rounds. I've also found it much easier to plug and play WRs than RBs. Of course, don't go into any draft with a set plan because all it takes is one or two picks or a run on a position to swing things wildly. Best player available should always be the #1 draft strategy in the early rounds.

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I know, its just that head to head is the most fun way to play. FF is popular because Sally in accounting had her kicker score 22 while both your stud RBs combined for 7 points and your top 3 QB handed off 3 plunge tds. Sally now feels like a genius and gets to brag all week at the water cooler. The illusion of control is what gives people that competitive feeling and makes it fun.

I agree, head to head is the most fun way to play, but also offers a lot up to chance. My league does a mix of head to head and weekly scores, with 1 win for head to head and 1 win for top six highest weekly score.

 

Fantasy football is like roulette to me. Highly variable spin to spin/ week to week, but over time there are odds that allow those that put in time to get that extra 3% house advantage that is just about unbeatable over time. If you're in a league where half the people really do research and put in time and half don't, you'll see those that put in time have more consistent success year to year. Those that just show up will have a few decent years here and there, but not with a lot of consistency.

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A lot of guys will give you crap but your mentality is 100% correct and people just don’t understand the concept of variables well enough to accept it. FF is layers upon layers of variables we have no control over. The things we do control are more about not being an idiot than being smart.

 

Listen, I’ll tell you right now a major reason why FF is almost 90% luck. The head to head format. You have zero control over your opponent outscoring you. I have won 60-59 and I’ve lost 150-156.

Yeah defiantly H2H was always a major factor in luck. A lot of people have abandoned them and for good reason.

 

But even taking the H2H format out, I wasn't trying to exactly bash anyone for doing a lot of research. But it is fairly silly if you think about it. There are so many factors of luck over the course of a football game and football season.

 

I agree, head to head is the most fun way to play, but also offers a lot up to chance. My league does a mix of head to head and weekly scores, with 1 win for head to head and 1 win for top six highest weekly score.

 

Fantasy football is like roulette to me. Highly variable spin to spin/ week to week, but over time there are odds that allow those that put in time to get that extra 3% house advantage that is just about unbeatable over time. If you're in a league where half the people really do research and put in time and half don't, you'll see those that put in time have more consistent success year to year. Those that just show up will have a few decent years here and there, but not with a lot of consistency.

 

I can totally get this. Anything with a slight edge over time is going to make a return. But what is a 3% edge do for you in say a decade of fantasy football? You are also assuming there are cream puffs in your league or that no one else puts in the research you do. I am in 2 leagues both 14 teams and I would say there is one cream puff. The rest have done this for a while and know football. I agree the people who pay the most attention especially in-season will consistently compete. But what if 12 or 13/14 all pay attention and know football?

 

I'm all for following the offseason to know what is going on. If I didn't play fantasy football I would still do just as much of that. But analyzing rankings for weeks on end, ADPs, draft strategy......meh. I get if you some how enjoy the work, but I'm just saying I doubt it is helping anywhere close to the time put into it. And was just making an observation that is it wild that something most everyone can agree is largely luck, gets so many people who put hours a day towards trying to dodge the onslaught of luck and chance.

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