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Dynasty Rankings Updated

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Doug Orth has updated his dynasty rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs.

 

Obviously of things still to shakeout as we are pre- free agency and pre- NFL Draft but standouts for me include...

 

RB Isaiah Crowell at No.13. - History shows there can fantasy producers on terrible teams but the Browns are such a mess right now I consider all of there players hands off until further notice, even in dynasty leagues.

 

WR Odell Beckham Jr. at No.7 - Very minor, but I think he'll outproduce Calvin over the next three years and would flip-flop them in the rankings.

 

TE Vernon Davis at No.28 - Ohh how the mighty have fallen.

 

QB Derek Carr at No.15 - I just did a brief check and the last time a Raiders QB cracked the top 10 in fantasy was Kerry Collins back in 2005! Carson Palmer checked in at No.16 in 2012. Considering the history it's hard to swallow Carr at 15 but I think you may be on to something here especially if they land Amari Cooper in the upcoming draft.

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Thanks! It's always a pleasure to read Doug's assessments.

 

Edit: While I agree with the following sentiment, I feel compelled to make a slight correction. The Niners are now SC and their fall began when they left SF - despite stealing the name on their way out. : )

 

Getting a bad feeling that SF is going to fall fast and hard.

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Doug Orth has updated his dynasty rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs.

 

Obviously of things still to shakeout as we are pre- free agency and pre- NFL Draft but standouts for me include...

 

RB Isaiah Crowell at No.13. - History shows there can fantasy producers on terrible teams but the Browns are such a mess right now I consider all of there players hands off until further notice, even in dynasty leagues.

 

WR Odell Beckham Jr. at No.7 - Very minor, but I think he'll outproduce Calvin over the next three years and would flip-flop them in the rankings.

 

TE Vernon Davis at No.28 - Ohh how the mighty have fallen.

 

QB Derek Carr at No.15 - I just did a brief check and the last time a Raiders QB cracked the top 10 in fantasy was Kerry Collins back in 2005! Carson Palmer checked in at No.16 in 2012. Considering the history it's hard to swallow Carr at 15 but I think you may be on to something here especially if they land Amari Cooper in the upcoming draft.

All are fair points.

 

I'm such a big fan of Crowell's natural talent. Then again, he runs much more like Chris Ivory now than he did in college (like every run is his last). I hope he tries to avoid contact a bit more often going forward. And yes, the hot mess that CLE has become isn't going to help matters. I do like the fact he will get to run behind Thomas and Mack for a few years though.

 

I can't wrap my mind around putting ODB so high just yet. ODB vs. Calvin was probably the most difficult call I had to make in the upper part of any of the rankings.

 

VD - I really don't know why he became such a small part of the offense this year (did Lloyd and Stevie still his targets?). As the Niners' top deep threat, VD's speed and Kaep's ability to extend plays AND big arm should always be a good mix.

 

Carr - Here is part of my writeup in last spring's draft profile:

 

"Starting with his second game of the 2013 season and ending with Fresno State’s overtime win in late October against San Diego State, Carr was nearly unwatchable in my eyes and appeared to be haunted by the demons of his older brother. Over the next five games, a funny thing happened: Carr transformed into a quarterback that looked to be the top quarterback available in this draft by a wide margin. What was the difference? Footwork."

 

What I just said plus his quick decision-making is what caught my attention in 2014. Carr was sacked 24 times last year. That's impressive for a rookie and almost unbelievable behind the Raiders' o-line. A 21:12 TD-to-INT ratio behind said o-line with average-at-best receivers and lackluster running game (at least before Latavius Murray) is incredible. I didn't factor in the likelihood of Oakland getting Cooper into my rankings, but I can't imagine lowering his ranking anytime soon.

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Thanks! I always look forward to this.

 

Couple comments...

 

Stafford seems a little low to me. This was a down year for him, but he's always up near the top in PA's and 4500+ yards. I'd have him ahead of Brees and Brady, given their age.

Jerrick McKinnon seems really high. I can't imagine him being the answer in MIN going forward.

Denard Robinson seems pretty low. I'd probably swap him and McKinnon.

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Thanks! I always look forward to this.

 

Couple comments...

 

Stafford seems a little low to me. This was a down year for him, but he's always up near the top in PA's and 4500+ yards. I'd have him ahead of Brees and Brady, given their age.

Jerrick McKinnon seems really high. I can't imagine him being the answer in MIN going forward.

Denard Robinson seems pretty low. I'd probably swap him and McKinnon.

Interesting.

 

I laugh a little bit on Stafford (and not b/c I disagree or agree with you). Last year, I was told I was too high on him. I expected him to take a big step forward in terms of production this season with Caldwell & Co. focusing on his mechanics, but I was really unimpressed with him fundamentally - even after Megatron returned. And in the somewhat likely event that Johnson starts declining (or keeps getting hurt), the maiin thing that is keeping Stafford's value high would be gone ... or at least diminished.

 

McKinnon was such a tough rank for me and you're probably right about him, although I assumed that AP wasn't coming back in this article. I can see where the Vikings try to go the Andre Ellington 2014 route with McKinnon if AP leaves, so the question will be whether or not he can hold up better than Ellington did.

 

Regarding Robinson, I hope you are right. I drafted him on my experts' dynasty team in 2013 b/c I was sure he was going to be the successor to MJD. And like I said in the comments, he becomes a top 15-20 back IMO if he can prove durability. With that said, he broke down after about four games of heavy usage this year, so I chose to rank him conservatively for that reason.

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Dynasty Rankings Updated

 

 

:dunno:

 

#1. New England Patriots

#2. San Francisco 49ers

#3. Pittsburgh Steelers

#4. Dallas Cowboys

#5. Green Bay Packers

 

:banana:

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My concern is how Isaiah Crowell is rated (#13). I drafted this guy in my fantasy league last year and will hold on to him. Wish he was better in the passing game/blocking , as this may be the only thing stopping him from ascending to the top of Cleveland's RB depth chart. BUT the area he is lacking is IMPORTANT! Lets hope he did or his doing off season upgrades in his passing game. The kid can run, no doubt. Now they just need a QB in Brownsville and then anything is possible.

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Love the list for the most part

 

question: why the big gap (8vs14) between Brady and Manning? not age obviously.. I would have them back to back in the next tier 9-10ish

 

thanks,

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Love the list for the most part

 

question: why the big gap (8vs14) between Brady and Manning? not age obviously.. I would have them back to back in the next tier 9-10ish

 

thanks,

:dunno:

isn't the perception that Manning barely made it thru this last season? There was lots of uncertainty whether he would even come back for another season.

Brady seems to be "much younger" regardless of their actual ages... and has not talked at all about retiring.

 

I just think the days of Brady /Manning being tier 1 are long gone but so too are the days of Brady/Manning being considered equals in fantasy value. Manning once blew Brady away. Then they were even for a while. Now Brady is slightly ahead.

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Love the list for the most part

 

question: why the big gap (8vs14) between Brady and Manning? not age obviously.. I would have them back to back in the next tier 9-10ish

 

thanks,

TD Ryan pretty much hit the key points I was going to hit. Manning isn't even certain to return this year (I think he will) and probably has no more than two years left. I also think Kubiak's arrival means a more balanced offense.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Brady goes three more years. He has been the model of good health since his ACL about five years ago and will almost certainly be tied to Gronk the rest of his career.

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overall pretty decent rankings. and thanks for putting the ages in there. that's super helpful when looking at dynasty rankings.

 

Forte's 29 and Trestman's gone so 5 seems a little high to me.

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Good list. I'm surprised to see Andre Williams at 46 and Rashad Jennings ranked at 29 given their ages. Can you give us your thoughts on the NYG run game?

 

Also really shocked that Lorenzo is 2015 years old... ha

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I think dynasty rankings in general tend to over emphasize youth and the future... When you get down to it, you need guys that will be above average starters (Top 5-6QB, top 10-12RB, Top 15-18WR) I think looking further than 3 years is where the big mistake is.

 

Bridgewater

Carr

Foles

Bortles

 

All ahead of veterans who will definitely be around for the next 3+ years and have had big #'s

 

Crowell

Hyde

McKinnon

Murray

Ellington

 

All over Arien Foster and Joique Bell

 

Benjamin

Matthews

Moncrief

Robinson

Adams

 

All ahead of Edelman who is a lock for 100 catches and a focal point of a juggernaut offense for the next 2-3 years...

 

The teams the make the biggest mistake in dynasty are the ones who build for a future they never get to. There is always the next big thing every year with the draft and the turnover of breakout stars that happen at RB and WR every year... You need to lock down 3 years of production. Free agency can produce the same future production as crucial mid round picks in dynasty startups.

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I think dynasty rankings in general tend to over emphasize youth and the future... When you get down to it, you need guys that will be above average starters (Top 5-6QB, top 10-12RB, Top 15-18WR) I think looking further than 3 years is where the big mistake is.

 

Bridgewater

Carr

Foles

Bortles

 

All ahead of veterans who will definitely be around for the next 3+ years and have had big #'s

And who are these veterans?

 

Peyton: 3 years is pushing it, even 1 more year is in question

Kaep: If he gets his s*** together

RG3: Does anyone have faith in him?

Eli: Occasionally rises up to the level of startable, but can be downright awful, especially in leagues that deduct for INTs.

Flacco: Perennial tease, but never puts up the numbers he's capable of

Cutler: See Eli & Flacco

Bradford: Donezo?

Dalton: See Kaepernick

Alex Smith: Nope

Carson Palmer: Nope

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"The teams the make the biggest mistake in dynasty are the ones who build for a future they never get to. There is always the next big thing every year with the draft and the turnover of breakout stars that happen at RB and WR every year... You need to lock down 3 years of production. Free agency can produce the same future production as crucial mid round picks in dynasty startups."

 

 

 

I couldn't possibly disagree more with the above part of your statement. The biggest mistake by far I see is guys who take those 3 yr window players in the startup and then trade picks each year for another one. Of course they usually don't end up paying the piper because they then leave the league hanging.

 

Invariably what happens is some of those old "3 yr" window guys end up getting hurt and they don't get the championship they thought was a given, that's what happens to old guys. Then it turns out some of those "3yr guys" didn't have 3yrs after all, their skills deteriorate and even if they are still starting in the NFL they fall out of starting level production for FF, of course there is no value to be had when trying to trade them at that point.

 

Given a choice of only one or the other I'm going young every time. Even when the young guys, some of the ones you have listed above, don't pan out right away they will still have trade value that will surprise.

 

There has to be a happy medium found but when you go old it doesn't work out. Even the guys who resist the temptation to then trade away picks to put themselves over the top find they don't have enough to keep up with the deteriorating roster value. This is all assuming you are talking about a competitive league where you don't have the ability to pick up starting level talent from the WW when your guys fall off. That has been my observation anyway.

 

I guess what I'm saying here is if you want to add a single one of those vets to your young nucleus for a run this year realizing they are likely to have ZERO roster value in that slot in return for strong production immediately, OK. That can help, but don't confuse that idea with "these vets all have more value than the youngsters because they are going to produce more".

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And who are these veterans?

 

Peyton: 3 years is pushing it, even 1 more year is in question

Kaep: If he gets his s*** together

RG3: Does anyone have faith in him?

Eli: Occasionally rises up to the level of startable, but can be downright awful, especially in leagues that deduct for INTs.

Flacco: Perennial tease, but never puts up the numbers he's capable of

Cutler: See Eli & Flacco

Bradford: Donezo?

Dalton: See Kaepernick

Alex Smith: Nope

Carson Palmer: Nope

Flacco, Eli, Cutler are good examples. Being in your early-mid 30's as a QB means age doesn't matter, production does. Will Bortles ever be an above average fantasy starter? Will Bridgewater? I have serious doubts.

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"The teams the make the biggest mistake in dynasty are the ones who build for a future they never get to. There is always the next big thing every year with the draft and the turnover of breakout stars that happen at RB and WR every year... You need to lock down 3 years of production. Free agency can produce the same future production as crucial mid round picks in dynasty startups."

 

 

 

I couldn't possibly disagree more with the above part of your statement. The biggest mistake by far I see is guys who take those 3 yr window players in the startup and then trade picks each year for another one. Of course they usually don't end up paying the piper because they then leave the league hanging.

 

Invariably what happens is some of those old "3 yr" window guys end up getting hurt and they don't get the championship they thought was a given, that's what happens to old guys. Then it turns out some of those "3yr guys" didn't have 3yrs after all, their skills deteriorate and even if they are still starting in the NFL they fall out of starting level production for FF, of course there is no value to be had when trying to trade them at that point.

 

Given a choice of only one or the other I'm going young every time. Even when the young guys, some of the ones you have listed above, don't pan out right away they will still have trade value that will surprise.

 

There has to be a happy medium found but when you go old it doesn't work out. Even the guys who resist the temptation to then trade away picks to put themselves over the top find they don't have enough to keep up with the deteriorating roster value. This is all assuming you are talking about a competitive league where you don't have the ability to pick up starting level talent from the WW when your guys fall off. That has been my observation anyway.

 

I guess what I'm saying here is if you want to add a single one of those vets to your young nucleus for a run this year realizing they are likely to have ZERO roster value in that slot in return for strong production immediately, OK. That can help, but don't confuse that idea with "these vets all have more value than the youngsters because they are going to produce more".

So you draft David Wilson, Montee Ball, Trent Richardson, or any of the other upside guys as you salivate over a decade of production

 

 

Its not a binary situation, its all on a spectrum, and my observation stands that the errors are more tied to looking into the distant future.... That doesn't mean im talking about a team full of peyton mannings.

 

And there are always startable WW pickups... Justin Forsett, CJ Anderson, McKinnon, Brendan Oliver. Happens every year.

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So you draft David Wilson, Montee Ball, Trent Richardson, or any of the other upside guys as you salivate over a decade of production

 

 

Its not a binary situation, its all on a spectrum, and my observation stands that the errors are more tied to looking into the distant future.... That doesn't mean im talking about a team full of peyton mannings.

 

And there are always startable WW pickups... Justin Forsett, CJ Anderson, McKinnon, Brendan Oliver. Happens every year.

 

Pity the poor guy who drafted ALL busts, I haven't ever seen that happen. As for me personally the only one of those guys I drafted was Wilson and I got lucky by trading him for two 1st round draft picks the off-season after he was expected to take over. One of those picks I then traded for Andre Johnson who I knew was going to zero eventually. This is pretty much the way I handle my rosters, I ended up getting both production AND future value when I traded the young guy, I try to keep my eye on both.

A young nucleus with strategic vet production. I did have the #1 overall pick the year of the TRich but I traded it for L. McCoy and the #6 which became Andrew Luck. Point is, you can't point out all the bust players over the years and be fair, after all I'm not saying every vet will break down and get hurt by the end of the season though some will, I'm not saying this will be the last good year for every vet, though for some it will.

 

I'm saying thinking of EVERY players value in terms of right now instead of more broadly over the course of career is the biggest mistake I have seen over the years. Some of :

Benjamin

Matthews

Moncrief

Robinson

Adams

May perform as well as Edleman or better over the next couple of years, and after they do, they will continue to have long careers ahead of them. In truth, some of them may end up being worth 5x Edelman. This is why values of dynasty players are drastically different than redraft. The young guys are pricing in the discounted value of the rankers estimate of future production. The problem is not with making the choice in one or a couple of roster slots. The problem is with, as in your example of QB and RB and WR having that thinking permeate an entire roster. In my experience that is what usually happens because once an owner has a nucleus of "win now" guys they feel the pressure to win now. When the old guys get hurt they use young players and/or draft picks to supplement by adding more vet production.

Of course there will be WW guys but its usually not the win now guys who get them. Which of your vets are you going to drop for a guy like the above who pops up in any given week? Its usually the guys who have a bust youngster that end up getting WW adds. in any case in a competitive dynasty if you are counting on #1 Getting all those guys, well that's tough, there are other smart owners #2 that those guys are going to be able to become your future nucleus, well that's tough too. Oliver seems unlikely to be a RB1, Forsett not for long, McKinnon jury is out but he was not on waivers in any dynasty leagues I'm in, he was drafted in all.

I suspect we are not as far off in philosophy as maybe this all sounds. I just think your 1st post can be taken by the inexperienced player as a philosophy that makes sense but I have seen guys repeatedly sunk going old, more than I have seen guys sunk by going young. Those who go young, when it doesn't work out have something left to work with and correct their mistakes. I suppose the guy in your league who drafted each of those busts may have left the league too and colored you the other way.

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I just did a dynasty startup draft before this past season. My young guy picks were all guys who were expected to produce this year. Alf Morris, Lev Bell (obv lucked into that one a bit, but he was projected to start day 1). Picked up Forsett as flex. Went Calvin over AJ and Dez, may have been a mistake, but in his prime for next 3 years w Stafford. Could probably flip a coin at the time. Snagged Golden Tate. Percy Harvin (may be a bust, but highly productive when playing and healthy)

 

I realized at QB going Foles, Dalton, Manziel, that while I had decent young starters, it was highly possible none of those guys would be top 5 QB's at any point in their careers. So whats the point besides desperation trade value of a guy who is never going to give your team a starting edge.

 

I was insanely lucky that some idiot dropped Brady after week 4 in disgust, and i was able to win the bid, and lock up QB for the next couple years.

 

My philosophy was to draft as young as i could while getting immediate production. If i felt i had to wait more than a year i was hesitant. I did get Manziel super late, and I got Ebron, which was probably a mistake after watching him play and see DET has other TE options.

 

I noticed that the teams in the worst situation is the one team that is super old (Manning/Beastmode core), and the ones that went super young.

 

So we probably agree in general on roster balance. If you are assembling a team on the chance that it is unstoppable in 4 years, you waste those initial years of league fees and the possibility it never happens. FF playoffs are always fickle. Give yourself a chance to compete every year, and you'll have a better chance of binking off a championship... I lost in the finals this year, but i think im in great position to make a run going forward.

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Flacco, Eli, Cutler are good examples. Being in your early-mid 30's as a QB means age doesn't matter, production does. Will Bortles ever be an above average fantasy starter? Will Bridgewater? I have serious doubts.

Will Flacco, Eli, or Cutler be an above average fantasy starter in the next 3+ years? In leagues that don't penalize INTs, Eli was number 6 QB in 2011. That's the ONLY time in the past 5 years any of those 3 have been an above average fantasy starter. No, there's no guarantee that any of the rookie QBs will be either. I don't see any of them becoming a Newton/Peyton/Rodgers/Brees that will consistently be an above average fantasy QB. But, at the very least, the potential is there.

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Also really shocked that Lorenzo is 2015 years old... ha

Due to confusion and a misreading of the stars, was accidentally given the gifts of eternal youth and elite power running skills at birth. The guy born in the manger next door only got gold, frankincense, and myrrh.

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Is this a joke? Tannehill, carr, and manning all rated ahead of foles? It has to be a joke.

Let's see what Philly does at QB on draft weekend. That played a role in his relatively low ranking.

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Let's see what Philly does at QB on draft weekend. That played a role in his relatively low ranking.

I understand his status is in question, but his potential is so much higher than the qbs i mentioned, that he has to be worth more in dynasty. Philly would be pretty stupid to draft one of these future failures at qb and then just keep foles on the bench without trading him.

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I think we will agree to disagree on the younger quarterbacks. Tannehill showed what he could do with a more wide-open offensive system this year and Carr was pretty amazing considering his supporting cast. There is no way that Foles could have done what Carr did this year with a similar group of receivers. Also bear in mind that No. 1 criteria is talent.

 

And although I don't like Oakland's new OC, I do like the fact that he will install a more quick-hitting wide-open offense. As mentioned above, the chances that Oakland gets Kevin White , Amari Cooper or Devante Parker also helps his ranking.

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Talent? I dont get it. Foles played out of his mind 2 years ago. He didnt play as well last year, but his record as a starter between 2013-2014 is 14-4. He still played well in 2014 despite taking a step back in efficiency. You saw what happened to that team after he was injured.

 

I guess time will tell. I think Carr looked lost out there, failing to make progressions through the routes when trying to find the open receiver.

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Talent? I dont get it. Foles played out of his mind 2 years ago. He didnt play as well last year, but his record as a starter between 2013-2014 is 14-4. He still played well in 2014 despite taking a step back in efficiency. You saw what happened to that team after he was injured.

 

I guess time will tell. I think Carr looked lost out there, failing to make progressions through the routes when trying to find the open receiver.

Talent is a relative term, at least from my perspective in this discussion. I'm not suggesting that Foles lacks it, but rather that Tannehill and Carr have more of it. And with all due respect, I don't care about a quarterback's starting record, esp. as it relates to a fantasy debate.

 

How much better was Foles than Mark Sanchez this year, in reality or fantasy? Was Foles' 2014 "decline" based solely on the injuries up front or the loss of DeSean Jackson or both? Does Maclin return to Philly? These are all questions that need to be answered...

 

Carr is an optimistic projection where I have him, no doubt about it. Then again, his go-to receiver in a lot of situations was Mychal Rivera. I'm not going to knock a rookie for failing to religiously go through his progressions for more than 2 1/2 seconds with his sorry excuse for an o-line. Additionally, how often are James Jones and Andre Holmes getting open and/or holding onto the ball and/or making big plays when they do make a catch? Despite all that, Carr posted a 21:12 TD-to-INT ratio and was only sacked 24 times. That's pretty damn impressive.

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How much better was Foles than Mark Sanchez this year, in reality or fantasy?

 

I have a chance to discuss fantasy football with a lot of guys over the course of a season. One of the things that stood out to me last year was the rabid bias of Foles owners. We all have bias towards our guys, don't get me wrong there, they wouldn't be our guys if we didn't think they were good.

 

It's just in the case of Foles it seemed a bit more fervent than the norm to me. It wasn't one owner, but every owner I talked to, who refused to put any credence in rumors that the Philly organization might not be 100% behind Foles as the long term answer and specifically after he got hurt, how much better he was than Sanchez. Here are the final numbers.

 

Which is Foles, which is Sanchez?

 

Rk Player Team Pos Comp Att Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD Int 1st 1st% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck Rate

 

27 PHI QB 198 309 64.1 34.3 2,418 7.8 268.7 14 11 117 37.9 72 34 6 23 88.4

 

29 PHI QB 186 311 59.8 38.9 2,163 7.0 270.4 13 10 101 32.5 68T 29 7 9 81.4

 

 

Comp %, TDs to int, QB rating, even things like yds, plays over 20, 40 yds THEY ARE THE SAME.

 

 

Its very realistic IMO to discount Foles dynasty value for the possibility that Philly makes a change.

 

Its also pretty clear that if they don't make a change he has to leap up the board on a year to year basis. WHOMEVER the QB is in Philly is going to put up FF points.

 

The team runs 50% more plays than some of the other teams in the NFL and opportunities = points.

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Which is Foles, which is Sanchez?

 

Rk Player Team Pos Comp Att Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD Int 1st 1st% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck Rate

 

27 PHI QB 198 309 64.1 34.3 2,418 7.8 268.7 14 11 117 37.9 72 34 6 23 88.4

 

29 PHI QB 186 311 59.8 38.9 2,163 7.0 270.4 13 10 101 32.5 68T 29 7 9 81.4

 

 

Comp %, TDs to int, QB rating, even things like yds, plays over 20, 40 yds THEY ARE THE SAME.

 

 

Its very realistic IMO to discount Foles dynasty value for the possibility that Philly makes a change.

 

Its also pretty clear that if they don't make a change he has to leap up the board on a year to year basis. WHOMEVER the QB is in Philly is going to put up FF points.

 

The team runs 50% more plays than some of the other teams in the NFL and opportunities = points.

I peeked at the 2014 numbers at each player before my latest comment and reached a similar conclusion :doublethumbsup:

 

I'm pretty much in agreement with you on each point. I don't think Foles is a great talent nor do I think he will have great job security from year to year. However, Chip's offense helps mask a lot of his fantasy deficiencies and w/o putting much thought into it at the moment (b/c we don't know how the next 1-2 months will shake out), I could easily see Foles moving up to around #10 if he is the clear-cut starter once the draft is over.

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