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Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Todd Gurley, Rams


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#1 The Football Guru

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 07:28 PM

As I stated in my draft profiles, Gurley is quite possibly the best running back prospect to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. On the surface this pick is a shocker since Tre Mason started to establish himself in the second half of his rookie season, but we don't have to go too far back to remember HC Jeff Fisher enjoyed much success utilizing Chris Johnson and LenDale White a few years ago. One can only imagine the Rams had Gurley inside their top five players to make this pick with offensive line and wide receiver being MUCH bigger needs. At any rate, Gurley is a complete back that may not truly 100 percent until 2016 coming off ACL surgery, but will be a featured back (at least a 2015 version of a featured back) when he is ready. The landing spot for Gurley isn't the best for his dynasty outlook, but his talent alone still makes him one of the top three picks in that format. It'd be foolish to project his redraft value right now given the fact we don't know if he will begin the season on the field or the PUP list. Assuming it is the former, he should be considered a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 (again, remembering he probably won't be his dominant self until 2016).



#2 tanatastic

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 07:29 PM

Bad spot for him. I already noted hat this years gurley won't be as good as next years when he's fully recovered. Mason is a stud and won't just hand his gig over.

#3 Kopy

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 07:32 PM

This pick is approved by seahawk fans everywhere.
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#4 The Football Guru

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 07:45 PM

Really? I'm pretty sure the Seahawks will hate going up against him twice a year, unless he can't stay healthy.



#5 Kopy

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 07:56 PM

Didn't say i didn't like him. But when look at the Rams, i already see them with a starting caliber running back and alot of different other needs. I don't see how they improve any and it seems like a wasted first rounder to me.
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#6 Vikings4ever

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 08:00 PM

Didn't say i didn't like him. But when look at the Rams, i already see them with a starting caliber running back and alot of different other needs. I don't see how they improve any and it seems like a wasted first rounder to me.

If Gurley is healthy, he's a stud, and a definite improvement over Mason.

 

Although you can certainly argue he doesn't improve the team as much as someone like Parker would.


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#7 The Football Guru

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 08:13 PM

I gotcha now, Kopy. And I agree with Vikings. I think the Rams needed to look at their pick like this, where is the bigger gap? Parker>Britt or Gurley>Mason?

 

Gurley, Mason and Stacy in the backfield and Quick, Austin and Britt at WR? I love Gurley, but unless they can grow a WR out of a test tube in the next 3-4 months, I'm not feeling it for a team that is on the verge of contending.



#8 McLoven

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 10:54 PM

As one of, if not, the youngest teams in the league with a top 5 defense, the Rams added a future stud running-back to a already talented back-field. Most evaluators say that Todd Gurley is the best running-back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. In the very recent past the Rams drafted an OT with the 2nd pick in the draft last year and a WR with their first round pick 2 years ago.

 

For a "Football Guru" you certainly have little understanding on how long it takes to develop a receiver or an offensive lineman in the NFL without a starting caliber quarterback at the helm. Most wideouts breakout in their 3rd season which is what Brian Quick was doing last year before getting hurt. Quick is back from injury, Tavon Austin is beginning his third year along with Stedman Bailey who made big strides last year. The offensive line is young but has talent and I'm sure that the Rams can add some offensive line depth during the rest of the draft.

 

No need to rush out every year and draft another wide receiver or offensive lineman with the first pick. The Rams just need to get their quarterback to stay healthy for a year and let everything gel. Getting rid of Bradford helps that cause. Now they just need Foles to stay healthy for this season.

 

How can taking a potential AP type player be a bad thing at any pick? The Rams will be tough to beat this year if they stay healthy at QB and run the ball. Gurley was a great pick for this team. My advice for the Rams is to keep with the BPA approach top this draft and don't listen to any self-proclaimed "Gurus


12 team - PPR // Line up- 1 qb, 2 rbs, 2 wrs, 1 te, 2 flex 1 kk, & 1 df. //

 

P. Manning

D. Murray, Gore, I. Crowell, Bradshaw, Buck Allen, Shoelace

Megatron, Boldin, Wallace, T. Austin, DGB, Kearse

 

Kelse, ASJ, Allen

McMannis

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#9 gpann101

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Posted 30 April 2015 - 11:11 PM

If..if..if..IF Marcus Dupree would have been healthy,he would have been a stud too!

#10 The Football Guru

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 02:22 AM

As one of, if not, the youngest teams in the league with a top 5 defense, the Rams added a future stud running-back to a already talented back-field. Most evaluators say that Todd Gurley is the best running-back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. In the very recent past the Rams drafted an OT with the 2nd pick in the draft last year and a WR with their first round pick 2 years ago.

 

For a "Football Guru" you certainly have little understanding on how long it takes to develop a receiver or an offensive lineman in the NFL without a starting caliber quarterback at the helm. Most wideouts breakout in their 3rd season which is what Brian Quick was doing last year before getting hurt. Quick is back from injury, Tavon Austin is beginning his third year along with Stedman Bailey who made big strides last year. The offensive line is young but has talent and I'm sure that the Rams can add some offensive line depth during the rest of the draft.

 

No need to rush out every year and draft another wide receiver or offensive lineman with the first pick. The Rams just need to get their quarterback to stay healthy for a year and let everything gel. Getting rid of Bradford helps that cause. Now they just need Foles to stay healthy for this season.

 

How can taking a potential AP type player be a bad thing at any pick? The Rams will be tough to beat this year if they stay healthy at QB and run the ball. Gurley was a great pick for this team. My advice for the Rams is to keep with the BPA approach top this draft and don't listen to any self-proclaimed "Gurus

I am one of those evaluators that said Gurley was one of the best backs, that is, if my opinion matters :D

 

I study this stuff pretty much year round, so if you disagree...well, you are entitled to your opinion. I have a fair appreciation for how long it takes to develop a WR or OL, but that isn't the problem in STL. If you want to say Quick is on the verge of being a WR1, I'd tell you I'd like a little more than four good games against four of the worst secondaries in the league last season. What has Austin done to inspire confidence? I'll be the first to tell you that I think Brian Schottenheimer didn't use him correctly, but there isn't a lot of evidence to suggest he's ever going to be a featured receiver. Bailey is a solid player, but do you see him as a future WR2? I think I'm higher on this group than most, but I think this group's ceiling is league-average.

 

My problem with your argument begins with your thoughts about the offensive line. What part of it gives you hope? Let's say Robinson lives up to his No. 2 overall pick beginning this year and Saffold holds his own at LG, neither of which is a given. The rest of the line looks like this: C Tim Barnes, RG Barrett Jones and RT Brandon Washington. If the Rams can bring back Joe Barksdale, then perhaps you have a serviceable RT. I like Jones as a versatile backup, but to suggest the line is anything close to promising (or has the talent to be considered that) is a huge stretch IMO. You can't seriously expect STL will be able to plug all those holes over the next two days, right? And that's really where the pick of Gurley is questionable. If at least three-fifths of your line is unsettled, how do you expect to run the ball in the NFC West?

 

Getting rid of an injured Bradford helps the cause, but I'll take a healthy Bradford over Foles any day. (I realize a healthy Foles is a clear upgrade over the Shaun Hill/Austin Davis tag team last year.)

 

My problem is not with Gurley and I have a ton of respect for the Rams to take the BPA b/c I think he is a much better prospect than Flowers/Scherff/Peat. However, the Rams have no one right now than can legitimately stretch the field (Parker could have helped there and has drawn comparisons to A.J. Green) and most of their line isn't on par with the defensive lines in Seattle, SF or Arizona. Mason has proven capable of being an above-average back at the very least, so the one good thing about the Rams offense last year will now be insurance against another Gurley injury.

 

Roster management is important in the NFL and that is where I think STL failed itself with the pick of Gurley. While he is on the mend, the Rams have to make a decision on Foles, who can become a free agent at the end of the year and probably needs to be convinced to stay. There's a distinct possibility that he won't have the services of Gurley, who may not be truly himself until 2016. So when we arrive at the draft next year, it is possible the Rams will be stacked at RB and be looking for their next quarterback and a WR1 - two positions that are much harder to find than running back - and likely still at least two holes on the offensive line.



#11 petekrum

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 04:45 AM

Bad spot for him. I already noted hat this years gurley won't be as good as next years when he's fully recovered. Mason is a stud and won't just hand his gig over.


Please, Mason just died.
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#12 petekrum

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 04:46 AM

Didn't say i didn't like him. But when look at the Rams, i already see them with a starting caliber running back and alot of different other needs. I don't see how they improve any and it seems like a wasted first rounder to me.


Exactly. This move shows why Fisher is one of the more overrated football men in the league.
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#13 petekrum

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 04:49 AM

As one of, if not, the youngest teams in the league with a top 5 defense, the Rams added a future stud running-back to a already talented back-field. Most evaluators say that Todd Gurley is the best running-back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. In the very recent past the Rams drafted an OT with the 2nd pick in the draft last year and a WR with their first round pick 2 years ago.
 
For a "Football Guru" you certainly have little understanding on how long it takes to develop a receiver or an offensive lineman in the NFL without a starting caliber quarterback at the helm. Most wideouts breakout in their 3rd season which is what Brian Quick was doing last year before getting hurt. Quick is back from injury, Tavon Austin is beginning his third year along with Stedman Bailey who made big strides last year. The offensive line is young but has talent and I'm sure that the Rams can add some offensive line depth during the rest of the draft.
 
No need to rush out every year and draft another wide receiver or offensive lineman with the first pick. The Rams just need to get their quarterback to stay healthy for a year and let everything gel. Getting rid of Bradford helps that cause. Now they just need Foles to stay healthy for this season.
 
How can taking a potential AP type player be a bad thing at any pick? The Rams will be tough to beat this year if they stay healthy at QB and run the ball. Gurley was a great pick for this team. My advice for the Rams is to keep with the BPA approach top this draft and don't listen to any self-proclaimed "Gurus


You need to check your facts. Second year is actually the breakout year for WRs, followed by 5th and then 3rd.
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#14 McLoven

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 08:32 AM

You need to check your facts. Second year is actually the breakout year for WRs, followed by 5th and then 3rd.

Not my first goat roping. 3rd year is usually the year.


12 team - PPR // Line up- 1 qb, 2 rbs, 2 wrs, 1 te, 2 flex 1 kk, & 1 df. //

 

P. Manning

D. Murray, Gore, I. Crowell, Bradshaw, Buck Allen, Shoelace

Megatron, Boldin, Wallace, T. Austin, DGB, Kearse

 

Kelse, ASJ, Allen

McMannis

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#15 Flgatorguy87

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 08:46 AM

RTs can be had in the 2nd round quite commonly. Correct?

#16 NEWPOSTERGUY!

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 08:56 AM

- 250 touches and double digit TDs this season for the Rams ... book it.

hth

#17 McLoven

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 09:04 AM

I am one of those evaluators that said Gurley was one of the best backs, that is, if my opinion matters :D

 

I study this stuff pretty much year round, so if you disagree...well, you are entitled to your opinion. I have a fair appreciation for how long it takes to develop a WR or OL, but that isn't the problem in STL. If you want to say Quick is on the verge of being a WR1, I'd tell you I'd like a little more than four good games against four of the worst secondaries in the league last season. What has Austin done to inspire confidence? I'll be the first to tell you that I think Brian Schottenheimer didn't use him correctly, but there isn't a lot of evidence to suggest he's ever going to be a featured receiver. Bailey is a solid player, but do you see him as a future WR2? I think I'm higher on this group than most, but I think this group's ceiling is league-average.

 

My problem with your argument begins with your thoughts about the offensive line. What part of it gives you hope? Let's say Robinson lives up to his No. 2 overall pick beginning this year and Saffold holds his own at LG, neither of which is a given. The rest of the line looks like this: C Tim Barnes, RG Barrett Jones and RT Brandon Washington. If the Rams can bring back Joe Barksdale, then perhaps you have a serviceable RT. I like Jones as a versatile backup, but to suggest the line is anything close to promising (or has the talent to be considered that) is a huge stretch IMO. You can't seriously expect STL will be able to plug all those holes over the next two days, right? And that's really where the pick of Gurley is questionable. If at least three-fifths of your line is unsettled, how do you expect to run the ball in the NFC West?

 

Getting rid of an injured Bradford helps the cause, but I'll take a healthy Bradford over Foles any day. (I realize a healthy Foles is a clear upgrade over the Shaun Hill/Austin Davis tag team last year.)

 

My problem is not with Gurley and I have a ton of respect for the Rams to take the BPA b/c I think he is a much better prospect than Flowers/Scherff/Peat. However, the Rams have no one right now than can legitimately stretch the field (Parker could have helped there and has drawn comparisons to A.J. Green) and most of their line isn't on par with the defensive lines in Seattle, SF or Arizona. Mason has proven capable of being an above-average back at the very least, so the one good thing about the Rams offense last year will now be insurance against another Gurley injury.

 

Roster management is important in the NFL and that is where I think STL failed itself with the pick of Gurley. While he is on the mend, the Rams have to make a decision on Foles, who can become a free agent at the end of the year and probably needs to be convinced to stay. There's a distinct possibility that he won't have the services of Gurley, who may not be truly himself until 2016. So when we arrive at the draft next year, it is possible the Rams will be stacked at RB and be looking for their next quarterback and a WR1 - two positions that are much harder to find than running back - and likely still at least two holes on the offensive line.

I can see that you do a bit of research when making responses which I think is commendable. One thing that I found that you missed is that Garrett Reynolds is actually slated to start at right guard. Barrett Jones is a bit of a Swiss Army knife and can fill in anywhere on the interior of the line. A Joe Barksdale resigning would add depth but I think there are less holes on the o-line than many believe. Horrible QB play made things look a lot worse than they actually were last year plus when can run the ball and move the chains on the ground it makes things a lot easier on a young line. One or two offensive lineman who will make the roster can be had still in the draft.

 

No need to panic is all I'm saying. And judging the wide-outs and o-line from last year, without acknowledging that Rams' QB play had a lot to do with their less than stellar results,is irresponsible. The Rams want to run the ball, chew up the clock and play great defense.

 

Good defense(quite possible the best defense in the league) - check

Run the ball(have a better than average stable of running backs / just took the best RB prospect in recent history) - check

Chew up the clock(add some o-line depth and keep QB healthy) - we will see.

 

Gurley was the right pick there. End of story


12 team - PPR // Line up- 1 qb, 2 rbs, 2 wrs, 1 te, 2 flex 1 kk, & 1 df. //

 

P. Manning

D. Murray, Gore, I. Crowell, Bradshaw, Buck Allen, Shoelace

Megatron, Boldin, Wallace, T. Austin, DGB, Kearse

 

Kelse, ASJ, Allen

McMannis

Denver Defence


#18 lesjroza

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 10:02 AM

- 250 touches and double digit TDs this season for the Rams ... book it.

hth

 

Wow. I hope people still think this in August when redrafts roll but I doubt it. I think its close to 80% Gurley starts on PUP,  meaning he misses the first 6 weeks min.

 

I'm not sure he will be anywhere near game shape and he will have been struggling to catch up from lack of reps due to rehab focus.

 

He may be activated onto the roster somewhere between weeks 6-8 but may not may not be active on gamedays because I doubt they are going to play him on ST which means its going to depend on whether they can fit 3-4 RBs on the game day roster and that's going to depend on how other positions are shaking out, no way of knowing right now.

 

When he makes it onto the game day roster he will likely be limited to 10 or so touches a game in order to work himself into game shape and those 10 touches will not yet include much passing game work because as noted above he will not have had the opportunity to take the load of reps required for ANY rookie RB to get up to speed on protections and pass blocking in the NFL. Many RBs that appeared capable do not get the opportunity even with all the off-season reps.

 

Additionally, it would be exceedingly rare for any player to have the previous level of explosion and confidence in cuts at that point in a comeback. Gurley is unlikely to be a significant FF asset until 2016 and this was always the case based on a timeline from his injury. You didn't hear much about it because the dialogue was very controlled due to his draft prospects but it will become more clear at some point this summer.

 

I put the over under at 125 touches only because I can go that high, guys will still want to take the over.

 

My best guess right now is 80-90 touches in 2015, but leaving room for adjustment to how the rehab plays out.



#19 The Football Guru

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 10:12 AM

I use Ourlads for my rosters, so if you have something that is more up to date if not, please feel free to share.

You're not going to get an argument from me about Gurley being a good pick in general and the fact that he was the best player available. What you can't explain away is the Rams still don't have a proven top receiver or any lineman that graded positively according to ProFootballFocus last year. Yes, they overhauled the offensive line from last year, I get that. But you're assuming a lot of players that have not proven they can play those positions they are about to play are going to do well. It could happen, it's just not likely to.

#20 Quickolas1

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 02:20 PM

If 2015 is a training-wheels year, then the Rams will have him under contract cheaply for 3 more "full" years with a price-jump 4th year team option. If he becomes great, then you'd really have to shell out the dough to keep him after his rookie deal. That is obviously not where the league is going. Not to mention if the O-Line, QB and team success isn't there... he may not want to stick around anyway.

 

Arian Fosters and CJ Andersons grow on trees and you don't need to burn a 1st rounder on them for a smidgen of extra talent in your starter.

Plus if the o-line isn't very good, then your QB is at risk to getting knocked around like Bradford anyway.

Bottom line, I just don't think using prime assets (1st rders) on your backfield leads to extra wins. QBs and great O-Lines seem to.



#21 tanatastic

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 02:24 PM

Bottom line, I just don't think using prime assets on your backfield leads to extra wins. QBs and great O-Lines seem to.

Always this. How have some executives not caught on that Qb and Oline decide wich teams are good in this game. The mutually exclusive relationships between positions determines everything. Oline is bad, qb looks worse. Qb is great, oline looks better. Oline and qb are great, rb is usually great unless its a true bum like TRich. But the point is, they can make up for alot of talent variance. Just like A Dline can turn avg corners into pro bowlers.

 

Draft an RB, sure int he later rounds. But dont spend your most valuable asset on the position with the highest variance.



#22 The Football Guru

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 03:24 PM

If 2015 is a training-wheels year, then the Rams will have him under contract cheaply for 3 more "full" years with a price-jump 4th year team option. If he becomes great, then you'd really have to shell out the dough to keep him after his rookie deal. That is obviously not where the league is going. Not to mention if the O-Line, QB and team success isn't there... he may not want to stick around anyway.

 

Arian Fosters and CJ Andersons grow on trees and you don't need to burn a 1st rounder on them for a smidgen of extra talent in your starter.

Plus if the o-line isn't very good, then your QB is at risk to getting knocked around like Bradford anyway.

Bottom line, I just don't think using prime assets (1st rders) on your backfield leads to extra wins. QBs and great O-Lines seem to.

 

Always this. How have some executives not caught on that Qb and Oline decide wich teams are good in this game. The mutually exclusive relationships between positions determines everything. Oline is bad, qb looks worse. Qb is great, oline looks better. Oline and qb are great, rb is usually great unless its a true bum like TRich. But the point is, they can make up for alot of talent variance. Just like A Dline can turn avg corners into pro bowlers.

 

Draft an RB, sure int he later rounds. But dont spend your most valuable asset on the position with the highest variance.

I'm not against first-round running backs, especially when they are special talents like Gurley. But for the most part, I'm in agreement with both of these statements. A team that is close can usually add a Day 1 or 2 RB or solid FA to help push it over the top. The Rams are not one piece away and almost need Gurley to be AP if they hope to make the playoffs this season. We'll see how the rest of this weekend goes, but I fear Gurley could be in for a Steven Jackson-like start to his career (the guy I compared him to in my profiles) as a player stuck on an offense that doesn't have many other options than to run left, run right and run up the middle. I hope I'm wrong, b/c that would be a true waste of Gurley's talents.



#23 GreenTD

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 05:45 PM

Curious to think what some people think of his value in a 2-player keeper league where you can't keep 1st rounders. Can keep the player for 2 years beyond their drafted year. I'm picking 5th & will likely keep Jeremy Hill (10th rounder) & either Sammy Watkins (7th), Carlos Hyde (8th) or Russell Wilson (9th).

Would 3.5 be about the area to pull the trigger if he doesn't get taken before that?

#24 Flgatorguy87

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 07:10 PM

RTs can be had in the 2nd round quite commonly. Correct?


Havenstein day 1 starter. Guy knows how to run block.

#25 Flgatorguy87

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Posted 01 May 2015 - 08:08 PM

Havenstein day 1 starter. Guy knows how to run block.


And now Brown who should slide in at Guard on the right side.

#26 ralphster

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Posted 12 May 2015 - 06:01 AM

It would be wise for the Rams to PUP him to start the season.  Beyond that I agree there is no rush to get him going and project under 100 total touches for him this year.  I took him at 1.01 in a recent draft because his talent jumps off the tape - there is no other running back in this year's draft that possesses his blend of speed and power - and because I believed the Rams would take it slow with his recovery.  

 

They don't 'need' Gurley to step in and be a difference maker this year.   That's for next year, when they draft more WRs and OL after they find out which version of Foles they got in the trade.  Either way, Gurley is the starter for your 2016 Los Angeles Rams.


“When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something” ~ D. Butkus

#27 petekrum

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Posted 12 May 2015 - 07:26 AM

Not my first goat roping. 3rd year is usually the year.


Saying it again doesn't make it right.
The boar runs from the tiger. It is not cowardice, it's love of life.

#28 Upper Class Trash

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Posted 13 May 2015 - 12:09 PM

Havenstein day 1 starter. Guy knows how to run block.

As a St. Louis Rams Homer, I can tell you this is very true.  Havenstein is a mauler in the run game.  The issue that hasn't been stated yet is this:  Nobody on the line can pass block.  Robinson is a flat out joke in the passing game, Saffold (when healthy) is below average in pass protection and if Barksdale comes back, he's about the same in pass protection as Saffold.  Why does this matter?  Well, when you face the defenses the Rams do, and will in 2015, you are going to have to pass at some point.  When teams know full well you can't pass, they stack the box.  The Rams are going to face a TON of 2nd and Long, or 3rd and Long situations this season.  Gurely is not getting the ball in those situations.  And....  When you are down by 10 points, how much running will we do?  Sure, we have a great defense, but people were able to score on us.  When your offense only has the running game to lean on, it's MUCH harder to score. 

 

For the guy who said Barret Jones is a "swiss army knife".....  You obviously do not watch Rams football.  He has been in the doghouse since being drafted and is considered a reach to even make the squad in 2015.  Jones didn't play a snap his rookie season and last year he was on IR from training camp on.  You call him a "swiss army knife" simply because he played backup at each postion along the line in College?  We drafted him to be our Center of the future, but he literally cannot keep the practice squad guys off the QB in practice, therefore, he's had to sit on the bench.  The guy had back surgery last Fall as well.  In no way, shape or form is he starting at any position for the Rams.  He will be lucky to make the practice squad. 

 

I fully understand Fisher's strategy...  The Power Run game.  The problem with that is he doesn't have good enough run blockers to pull it off.  Havenstein is a lot like Robinson.  He was an excellent run blocker in college.  That doesn't always translate to the Pro level.  There is a reason he fell to the 2nd and that's because he can only do one thing well.  What do you do in pass rush situations? 



#29 Upper Class Trash

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Posted 13 May 2015 - 12:12 PM

It would be wise for the Rams to PUP him to start the season.  Beyond that I agree there is no rush to get him going and project under 100 total touches for him this year.  I took him at 1.01 in a recent draft because his talent jumps off the tape - there is no other running back in this year's draft that possesses his blend of speed and power - and because I believed the Rams would take it slow with his recovery.  

 

They don't 'need' Gurley to step in and be a difference maker this year.   That's for next year, when they draft more WRs and OL after they find out which version of Foles they got in the trade.  Either way, Gurley is the starter for your 2016 Los Angeles Rams.

You said it here perfectly.  Those of us in St. Louis believe they will be extra careful with Gurley this season.  He will be the face of the franchise when they move back to Los Angeles.  They'll need someone to sell tickets and jerseys.  I would be shocked if he didn't begin the season on the PUP list.  No way in the most remote of all Hells does he get the 250 touches someone above mentioned.  They positively need him for 2016.  No one else on offense is selling jerseys!!! 



#30 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 13 May 2015 - 02:16 PM

Curious to think what some people think of his value in a 2-player keeper league where you can't keep 1st rounders. Can keep the player for 2 years beyond their drafted year. I'm picking 5th & will likely keep Jeremy Hill (10th rounder) & either Sammy Watkins (7th), Carlos Hyde (8th) or Russell Wilson (9th).

Would 3.5 be about the area to pull the trigger if he doesn't get taken before that?


He is going to go early. I am in a 2 person keeper, though the rules im sure are a bit different. I would not pass on a good player for gurley.

#31 McLoven

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Posted 01 June 2015 - 11:19 AM

Saying it again doesn't make it right.
 

"

 

Table 13, Running Total of Breakout Wide Receivers since 1998

 

1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 7 27 32 15
 

While there is some scatter, the statistics indicate that the third year for NFL wide receivers often marks a season of dramatic improvement in fantasy football production. There is a fairly significant number of players that emerged in their second and fourth years, but overall the data mean (2.68 year average), median (3), and mode (3) indicate the third year is optimum (based on statistics from 1998 - 2011). This is the time when most receivers seem to finally make the transition to the NFL and install confidence in their quarterback that they will deliver as a quality receiver. "

 

 

 

When you are right the first time saying it as many times as you want won't make it wrong.


12 team - PPR // Line up- 1 qb, 2 rbs, 2 wrs, 1 te, 2 flex 1 kk, & 1 df. //

 

P. Manning

D. Murray, Gore, I. Crowell, Bradshaw, Buck Allen, Shoelace

Megatron, Boldin, Wallace, T. Austin, DGB, Kearse

 

Kelse, ASJ, Allen

McMannis

Denver Defence


#32 McLoven

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Posted 01 June 2015 - 12:06 PM

As a St. Louis Rams Homer, I can tell you this is very true.  Havenstein is a mauler in the run game.  The issue that hasn't been stated yet is this:  Nobody on the line can pass block.  Robinson is a flat out joke in the passing game, Saffold (when healthy) is below average in pass protection and if Barksdale comes back, he's about the same in pass protection as Saffold.  Why does this matter?  Well, when you face the defenses the Rams do, and will in 2015, you are going to have to pass at some point.  When teams know full well you can't pass, they stack the box.  The Rams are going to face a TON of 2nd and Long, or 3rd and Long situations this season.  Gurely is not getting the ball in those situations.  And....  When you are down by 10 points, how much running will we do?  Sure, we have a great defense, but people were able to score on us.  When your offense only has the running game to lean on, it's MUCH harder to score. 

 

For the guy who said Barret Jones is a "swiss army knife".....  You obviously do not watch Rams football.  He has been in the doghouse since being drafted and is considered a reach to even make the squad in 2015.  Jones didn't play a snap his rookie season and last year he was on IR from training camp on.  You call him a "swiss army knife" simply because he played backup at each postion along the line in College?  We drafted him to be our Center of the future, but he literally cannot keep the practice squad guys off the QB in practice, therefore, he's had to sit on the bench.  The guy had back surgery last Fall as well.  In no way, shape or form is he starting at any position for the Rams.  He will be lucky to make the practice squad. 

 

I fully understand Fisher's strategy...  The Power Run game.  The problem with that is he doesn't have good enough run blockers to pull it off.  Havenstein is a lot like Robinson.  He was an excellent run blocker in college.  That doesn't always translate to the Pro level.  There is a reason he fell to the 2nd and that's because he can only do one thing well.  What do you do in pass rush situations? 

Most of the starting interior/right-side linemen in the NFL today were drafted in the 2nd thru 4th rounds. Just because a team appears to need line help doesn't mean you need to reach for a player at that position in the first round. The first round is for drafting difference makers and potential best in class position players. When the Rams pick came around the best 2 QB's and WR's were off the board as well as the top 2 offensive tackles. The Rams drafted the highest rated left tackle with their first round pick last year, so it didn't make sense to reach for another tackle in the first round again. The best player left and quite possibly the best player in the draft was sitting there for the Rams with the 10th pick. Not taking Gurley with that pick would have been the dumbest thing the Rams could have done with the pick. During the next 3 rounds the Rams took three 3-year starter O-linemen from college teams that had some the best ground games at that level(Wisconsin, Louisville, Iowa) exactly where they should have been drafted, no reaching required. Now the Rams have enough road-grader O-lineman in camp to piece together a decent run blocking O-line. The Rams want to have an elite running game and this draft gives them a chance to get that going and keep it going for years to come. Glad you "gurus" aren't making picks for teams...especially mine. :)


12 team - PPR // Line up- 1 qb, 2 rbs, 2 wrs, 1 te, 2 flex 1 kk, & 1 df. //

 

P. Manning

D. Murray, Gore, I. Crowell, Bradshaw, Buck Allen, Shoelace

Megatron, Boldin, Wallace, T. Austin, DGB, Kearse

 

Kelse, ASJ, Allen

McMannis

Denver Defence