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Wildman

2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

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As always, any feedback you have is encouraged and appreciated... :music_guitarred:

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WOW....guys, my girlfriend got the RSP for me and all I can say is WOW!

 

The amount of info that you get is incredible. If you dont already have this you should go ahead and get it.

 

Thanks, Wildman. Great job. :music_guitarred:

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ZOMGZ

 

This saved me from making some big mistakes in my draft plans, and opened my eyes to some value plays. Also reinforced belief I had in some players. I'm loving this thing.

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First time I've ever dished out money for fantasy football information, and I can tell already it's worth it. Well done. It's way better than I expected.

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Overall, I'm extremely satisfied with what's provided here, Matt. I only wanted to check on about a dozen or so guys I'm targeting in my dynasty leagues, it looks like I've got what I need. Some quick comments/questions:

 

1) I know someone mentioned an overall dynasty ranking list, regardless of position. Would be very helpful.

 

2) The draft pick value charts are what I've been looking for with regard to accurate dynasty league trade values as they are far more, if not painfully more realistic than the other charts widely available. There are few things more frustrating than trading draft picks and assigning value to them. This was possibly the single-most valuable aspect of the RSP, for me anyway. But I'm a geek, so...

 

Is there a way to reassess for the value of each round, assuming there was a week or two between each round of the dynasty draft? For instance, some leagues conduct their draft by round, but seperate each round by a few weeks or a month. This time allows more offseason NFL news, injuries, coachspeak, etc to occur, and oftentimes greatly increases the value of certain rookies heading into the next round of a league's draft. Many people, myself included, believe that this system increases the value of the first few picks of each round, so those picks tend to be more valuable than the last few picks of the previous round.

 

Example: With your current value chart, pick 12/1.12 (assumes 12-team draft) has a value of 220, while pick 13/2.1 has a value of 204.

 

Is it possible, using your calculations, to adust for my scenario? How would one do that? Not a big deal, just curious.

 

3) Surprised by your observations of Sweed and Thomas, among others at WR. I thought I had it figured out at the WR position this year, but now I'm convinced it's more of a crap-shoot than usual. That's not to say there aren't decent dynasty WRs to be had, but I'm beginning to believe trading up this year in the first 2 rounds may not be all that useful.

 

4) Will you be adding a supplement for impact and dynasty rookie values after the NFL draft?

 

Tx!

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Overall, I'm extremely satisfied with what's provided here, Matt. Good I only wanted to check on about a dozen or so guys I'm targeting in my dynasty leagues, it looks like I've got what I need. Some quick comments/questions:

 

1) I know someone mentioned an overall dynasty ranking list, regardless of position. Would be very helpful. I'll consider this for 2009. I don't think it will be too much of a problem.

2) The draft pick value charts are what I've been looking for with regard to accurate dynasty league trade values as they are far more, if not painfully more realistic than the other charts widely available. There are few things more frustrating than trading draft picks and assigning value to them. This was possibly the single-most valuable aspect of the RSP, for me anyway. But I'm a geek, so...

 

Is there a way to reassess for the value of each round, assuming there was a week or two between each round of the dynasty draft? For instance, some leagues conduct their draft by round, but seperate each round by a few weeks or a month. This time allows more offseason NFL news, injuries, coachspeak, etc to occur, and oftentimes greatly increases the value of certain rookies heading into the next round of a league's draft. Many people, myself included, believe that this system increases the value of the first few picks of each round, so those picks tend to be more valuable than the last few picks of the previous round.

 

Excellent point. I've casually toyed with trying to figure out a keeper league/dynasty league draft chart system, but I haven't devoted a lot of time to it. A lot of variables there, but I think what you brought up gives me an idea I can consider for coming drafts (or possibly as an FFToday article)

Example: With your current value chart, pick 12/1.12 (assumes 12-team draft) has a value of 220, while pick 13/2.1 has a value of 204.

 

Is it possible, using your calculations, to adust for my scenario? How would one do that? Not a big deal, just curious.

 

3) Surprised by your observations of Sweed and Thomas, among others at WR. I thought I had it figured out at the WR position this year, but now I'm convinced it's more of a crap-shoot than usual. That's not to say there aren't decent dynasty WRs to be had, but I'm beginning to believe trading up this year in the first 2 rounds may not be all that useful.

 

You know, receivers are the most difficult to evaluate. I don't think there really is a consensus player who sticks out although the one guy you mentioned, I thought had some eye-popping skills, especially after the catch.

 

4) Will you be adding a supplement for impact and dynasty rookie values after the NFL draft? I will be doing an impact series during the summer and a draft day recap in late April that will be available at FFToday. I may do some supplemental info for the newsletter as well.

 

Tx!

 

I'll do my best to answer these in bold

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Matt,

 

First off, I don't think I've been as shocked in FF as I was seeing where you had DMC. Good golly, I wasn't high on him either, but your cojones must have their own zip code :cheers:

 

Second, my big question is this. Based on the scoring from last year to this year, am I to imply that the top 4 from this year grade out better/higher than the top back from last year? Maybe you could explain (obviously without giving too much away). On your scale up to 100 you have one score this year that is (to me) a huge 6 pts better than the top score from last year), yet the top 2 backs you had last year turned out to be pretty darned good. I'm just trying to see if there is a correlation between the overall score from year to year.

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Matt,

 

First off, I don't think I've been as shocked in FF as I was seeing where you had DMC. Good golly, I wasn't high on him either, but your cojones must have their own zip code :pointstosky:

 

Second, my big question is this. Based on the scoring from last year to this year, am I to imply that the top 4 from this year grade out better/higher than the top back from last year? Maybe you could explain (obviously without giving too much away). On your scale up to 100 you have one score this year that is (to me) a huge 6 pts better than the top score from last year), yet the top 2 backs you had last year turned out to be pretty darned good. I'm just trying to see if there is a correlation between the overall score from year to year.

 

 

Like I said, I thought long and hard about McFadden and I expect quite a reaction to it. Funny about the zip code...all I can say is...605!!! :pointstosky: Seriously, we'll see how it works out.

 

Ranking from year to year is a bit inexact. It's close, but not something you can do straight from the overall number every time. For example, my system rates if the guy can do all of these skills or not. It won't rate them how well they do them compared to others. That's were the subjective ranking falls into play. For instance, Jonathan Stewart does more well overall than any back I have rated, but does that mean he does everything better than any back I've every rated? No. Plus the scores also don't show something that my analysis often does: One player could score an 85 and his performance is likely maxed out at that score--meaning I don't think he's going to get that much better. Another player could score an 85, but if he became a better blocker, receiver, and protector of the football, he could be well into the 90s. That player has a higher potential. That's why Adrian Peterson scored lower than Lynch last year, but as I mentioned last year in multiple places, had more upside than any back in many years.

 

I would say the best way to rate from different years is to group them by overall score into tiers like 0-69, 70-78, 79-87, 88-100 and then read the details to decide where you feel they fall in relation to each other.

 

This maxed out and potential scoring might be something I'll discuss in the newsletter, too!

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Do you think scouts will see McFadden in the same light as yourself and we'll see McFadden slide on draft day?

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Do you think scouts will see McFadden in the same light as yourself and we'll see McFadden slide on draft day?

 

 

I'm not sure. At first, it worried me because everyone was praising the guy to high heaven. Then I noticed that Mike Mayock of NFL Network said he wouldn't pick McFadden if he had a chance in the top 20 picks. That validated a bit of what I already saw. Then last weekend I saw that Mark Schlereth and Merrill Hodge (yes I know, but the guy was an RB) say they felt McFadden was not feature back material. They said it in a rather hushed way. They didn't call him a bust, but they said on NFL Live that he was the type of back that could produce really well as a situational guy, but no an every down player.

 

Now why would an NFL team draft a situational back as their top guy? Reggie Bush was viewed as a multi-dimensional guy that they could use every down much like Brian Westbrook. If they thought Bush was a situational guy, all other teams would have waited a round or two. So when two NFL players who kind of look at each other on camera before they go into their view that McFadden isn't an every down back, it tells me they see the same things I do.

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I'm not sure. At first, it worried me because everyone was praising the guy to high heaven. Then I noticed that Mike Mayock of NFL Network said he wouldn't pick McFadden if he had a chance in the top 20 picks. That validated a bit of what I already saw. Then last weekend I saw that Mark Schlereth and Merrill Hodge (yes I know, but the guy was an RB) say they felt McFadden was not feature back material. They said it in a rather hushed way. They didn't call him a bust, but they said on NFL Live that he was the type of back that could produce really well as a situational guy, but no an every down player.

 

Now why would an NFL team draft a situational back as their top guy? Reggie Bush was viewed as a multi-dimensional guy that they could use every down much like Brian Westbrook. If they thought Bush was a situational guy, all other teams would have waited a round or two. So when two NFL players who kind of look at each other on camera before they go into their view that McFadden isn't an every down back, it tells me they see the same things I do.

 

I have a feeling I stand pretty alone on this player's prospects. So it's going to be a very interesting call with some real potential ups and downs in terms of how people see this analysis and the way McFadden plays.

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Matt,

 

Another question about the draft charts...would the values of each pick be the same if a rookie draft is only 3 rounds? Or would there be adjustments to the numbers if that were the case?

 

Looks good so far! Thanks again!

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I'm not sure. At first, it worried me because everyone was praising the guy to high heaven. Then I noticed that Mike Mayock of NFL Network said he wouldn't pick McFadden if he had a chance in the top 20 picks. That validated a bit of what I already saw. Then last weekend I saw that Mark Schlereth and Merrill Hodge (yes I know, but the guy was an RB) say they felt McFadden was not feature back material. They said it in a rather hushed way. They didn't call him a bust, but they said on NFL Live that he was the type of back that could produce really well as a situational guy, but no an every down player.

 

Now why would an NFL team draft a situational back as their top guy? Reggie Bush was viewed as a multi-dimensional guy that they could use every down much like Brian Westbrook. If they thought Bush was a situational guy, all other teams would have waited a round or two. So when two NFL players who kind of look at each other on camera before they go into their view that McFadden isn't an every down back, it tells me they see the same things I do.

 

You've hit on something here Matt, a trend that I detest. People hitch their wagons onto stats or the sportcenter highlights and suddenly "McFadden is the most talented prospect in this years draft". No. I'm like you, I don't want to see McFadden run for 40 yrds untouched. I want to see him make a guy 3 ft in the backfield miss, shake off a sure tackle and make 4 yrds outta a 3 yrd loss. As a Texas guy, I've been watching Peterson ever since he shunned his homestate and took his traiterous azz north to Oklahomo. But I never had any question the kid had everything an RB could want (except the things you pointed out, like a will to block and better hands catching passes out of the backfield, along w/ an injury history). He was going to have moments of success not matter what team he went to because his all around talent was that good. I've only watched one of Stewart games this year, several of Jamal Charles, seen a couple of McFaddens, but i can say I came away much more impressed with what I saw in Stewart, and somewhat more impressed in what I saw in Charles, than anything I saw from McFadden. I hate to say this, but I view him like I view Willie Parker in Pittsburgh. I haven't been and am still not sold on Parker. I think he's a fast guy, but got the benefit of playing on a team which focuses primarily on the run. I think just about any back could be successful there (although I may rethink that with how crappy their line looks right now). For all the hype of Peterson, that left side of his line is maybe the best in football, whereas Marshawn Lynch played behind a much worse line and looked like the all-around better back...but all that gets blurred by Peterson and his record setting games where he runs for like 800 yrds. Ask ADP owners if he carried his weight on their team during the FF playoff season. Peterson definitely won them a game when he ran wild, but he probably lost them some really important ones. I got more out of Lynch there in the playoffs than them by far. I can't tell you how much I hope the same reach happens this year when somebody goes for McFadden #1 and I can be sad and take Stewart #2.

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Matt,

 

Another question about the draft charts...would the values of each pick be the same if a rookie draft is only 3 rounds? Or would there be adjustments to the numbers if that were the case?

 

Looks good so far! Thanks again!

 

 

Probably not, because it's the numbers a proportionate to the number of rounds. The drop off would be steeper between picks and rounds.

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You've hit on something here Matt, a trend that I detest. People hitch their wagons onto stats or the sportcenter highlights and suddenly "McFadden is the most talented prospect in this years draft". No. I'm like you, I don't want to see McFadden run for 40 yrds untouched. I want to see him make a guy 3 ft in the backfield miss, shake off a sure tackle and make 4 yrds outta a 3 yrd loss. As a Texas guy, I've been watching Peterson ever since he shunned his homestate and took his traiterous azz north to Oklahomo. But I never had any question the kid had everything an RB could want (except the things you pointed out, like a will to block and better hands catching passes out of the backfield, along w/ an injury history). He was going to have moments of success not matter what team he went to because his all around talent was that good. I've only watched one of Stewart games this year, several of Jamal Charles, seen a couple of McFaddens, but i can say I came away much more impressed with what I saw in Stewart, and somewhat more impressed in what I saw in Charles, than anything I saw from McFadden. I hate to say this, but I view him like I view Willie Parker in Pittsburgh. I haven't been and am still not sold on Parker. I think he's a fast guy, but got the benefit of playing on a team which focuses primarily on the run. I think just about any back could be successful there (although I may rethink that with how crappy their line looks right now). For all the hype of Peterson, that left side of his line is maybe the best in football, whereas Marshawn Lynch played behind a much worse line and looked like the all-around better back...but all that gets blurred by Peterson and his record setting games where he runs for like 800 yrds. Ask ADP owners if he carried his weight on their team during the FF playoff season. Peterson definitely won them a game when he ran wild, but he probably lost them some really important ones. I got more out of Lynch there in the playoffs than them by far. I can't tell you how much I hope the same reach happens this year when somebody goes for McFadden #1 and I can be sad and take Stewart #2.

 

I love Peterson as a runner. The guy has that will to win. It's an intangible, but if you have the 2006 RSP, there's that last play from the Tulsa game where Peterson just refuses to go down and wins the game for them. He plays with heart and a will that you don't often see manifested that clearly on the field. He's a rare player. Now Lynch to me is one tough player with all around skills. On a solid team from top to bottom, Lynch will be all you need from a runner and he'll be a great cog in the team. He's like Edgerrin James in that respect.

 

Like you, I'd be happy with waiting for Stewart to get back into shape and make an impact at mid-season...

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I love the player comparison feature but wish the gaps would be closed more tightly. For instance, telling us someone is between Reggie Bush and Leeland McElroy does not tell us a great deal, in my opinion, as one was and still is a great prospect and the other was a major dud.

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Do the Dynasty Rookie Draft Value Charts map to any other lists showing equivalent trade value? This is my second year in a couple of dynasty leagues, so I'm somewhat new. For example, I have pick 1.08 in a 12 team league. How can I tell what the value of "316" in your table corresponds to in terms of existing players?

 

If there is no table, what would you guess would be an even trade for 1.08 (316) - maybe WR25 or WR30.

 

I would like to win now.

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The charts are just like NFL value charts so it doesn't correspond to position rankings, just the draft spot. All the other factors depend on your league rules (lineup, scoring, etc). It also depends if your league is drafting before or after the NFL draft.

 

But I would say if you're in a pretty straightforward scoring league, your 1.08 draft pick is where you could pick:

 

a) An RB who is considered a talent, but not regarded as an immediate starter and is probably 1-2 years away from doing so.

:rolleyes: Most or all the rookie receivers will be available

c) Most or all the top QBs will be available

 

RBs are always the most valuable because they transition the fastest and have the most point potential

WRs take 2-4 years to develop and have the second most difficult transition of the skill positions.

QBs take 3-5 years to develop and have the most difficult transition.

 

So I would say you really have to gauge who you are dealing with and what they need. When you look at their roster and they need an RB then I would say you have more dealing potential, less for WRs, and slightly less for QBs.

 

I think you can get a promising WR (20th-30th ranked from last year) and a lesser pick for 1.08 in this draft and if you're a good wheeler and dealer, a 15th-20th WR.

 

If you're picking before the draft you can play up how strong the RB class is and that they'll be getting a likely starter. If it's after the draft, you won't have this argument unless you see that the pick you're about to trade will allow the owner to select a rookie on the board ho will be starting.

 

These charts are designed mainly for trading picks, not picks for players. If I can come up with a player ranking based on spot that will match the pick spot values I'll add it for 2009

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I love the player comparison feature but wish the gaps would be closed more tightly. For instance, telling us someone is between Reggie Bush and Leeland McElroy does not tell us a great deal, in my opinion, as one was and still is a great prospect and the other was a major dud.

 

 

The dashes are to give an approximation. So the more dashes, the more separation I see between a player. If there's one dash, that player is just a tier up or down from the player. If there's a few dashes, it means that guy projects as vastly more or less talented...it's an intuitive thing way of looking at it.

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Its saying i dont have access, but i paid for it :rolleyes:

 

Shoot me an email with your FFT account info and we'll get it taken care. It's likely that you created a second account at purchase.

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I love the player comparison feature but wish the gaps would be closed more tightly. For instance, telling us someone is between Reggie Bush and Leeland McElroy does not tell us a great deal, in my opinion, as one was and still is a great prospect and the other was a major dud.

 

 

What it tells you is that Bush and Mcelroy are the same type of back style, but one has more skills than the other. That's all it's supposed to show

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If you're referring to his 40-time, I think I pretty much covered it in the rankings summary. Bowman had knee surgery this off season. I'm not worried about the combine time. His coach talks about his character in a positive life as a football player. I think he's dropping a bit too far. If you're talking about something else, let me know!

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Thanks for the great work as always, Waldman. Now for the big question...

 

Who here has pick 1.1 in a dynasty/keeper draft and is going to pass on McFadden based on this?

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Thanks for the great work as always, Waldman. Now for the big question...

 

Who here has pick 1.1 in a dynasty/keeper draft and is going to pass on McFadden based on this?

 

I've got the 1.02 pick, but if I had 1.01, I'd be trying to trade down on it. Hell, right now I'm praying the dude at 1.1 doesn't skip on mcfadden and force me to have to decide between him and whatever is left between Mendenhall/Stewart. Ideally he takes McFadden and I grab JStew at 1.02 and never look back.

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Thanks for the great work as always, Waldman. Now for the big question...

 

Who here has pick 1.1 in a dynasty/keeper draft and is going to pass on McFadden based on this?

 

Thanks

 

Obviously, I don't listen to everything and everyone...so why listen to me? It's a tough call even if you believe my argument is convincing. Like JGCrawfish is saying...not a bad year to trade down :overhead:

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Any additional thoughts on Adarius Bowman with what's took place since you made your evaluation?

 

 

Yeah, now that I know what happened...he's a fool. Although there are lots of fools in the NFL who still do what Bowman was doing, I would have to downgrade his chances based on the fact that he's gone from being a mid-round sleeper with big time potential to a likely undrafted free agent that will have to work overtime to just see an opportunity.

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I have a feeling I stand pretty alone on this player's prospects.

 

Not at all. You're just one of the few bold enough to go on the record contrary to the consensus. Count me as another.

 

Awesome job on the guide. :pointstosky:

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Thank you. Means a lot. I like hearing that people enjoy it. :cheers:

 

I look at it this way:

 

I'm just like most everyone here. I love football. I just decided I was going to do something like this and see it through. I also just happened to have a career where I studied best practices for performance evaluation after spending a decade managing call centers. I always believe I had a knack for spotting good players, but it was never a systematic process. So I figured if a company was going to pay $10K for me to learn about these best practices, why not apply them to something I enjoyed? Especially after watching Brian Westbrook become a terrific NFL player when Gil Brandt said something about him as a rookie that showed how draft analysis is different than player evaluation.

 

Since I'm not a scout, a former NFL player or even a college player, I just figured I'd write this book for me. I just wanted to see if i could develop something that helped me see what scouts or analysts might see on film. The first year I did this, I purposely didn't look at ratings from anyone until I was through. I didn't want anyone to influence me. I just wanted to go strictly by film. As a result I remember having Mike Bell rated as an 85, a borderline starter in my system. When I saw most didn't even have him remotely that high and he didn't get drafted, I just laughed at myself. But then, he turned out to be the Broncos starter by the time of the opener. I had other instances like this and I was always tempted to bump players up or down according to the crowd, but I decided for as long as I continued to do this book that I won't look at ratings until I've studied all my film and scored the players first.

 

As a result, I stand to look foolish but as much as I want people to like my book, value my opinion, and to make enough money to actually keep doing it every year as a viable business, more than anything I want to keep learning so I get better at what I do. If I change my scores to look like other's then I won't learn anything. I do so much analysis that I'm not going to remember what I changed a year from now. It's best I just go about it honestly. Otherwise, I'm just as liable to downgrade a player I loved who turns out great. Trust me, I was tempted to downgrade Selvin Young and Ahmad Bradshaw last year.

 

So I have to live with my touting of Mike Hass, Dave Ball, Charles Sharon and Bruce Gradkowski. But I also get Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, and those other guys I've talked about.

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Thank you. Means a lot. I like hearing that people enjoy it. :wub:

 

I look at it this way:

 

I'm just like most everyone here. I love football. I just decided I was going to do something like this and see it through. I also just happened to have a career where I studied best practices for performance evaluation after spending a decade managing call centers. I always believe I had a knack for spotting good players, but it was never a systematic process. So I figured if a company was going to pay $10K for me to learn about these best practices, why not apply them to something I enjoyed? Especially after watching Brian Westbrook become a terrific NFL player when Gil Brandt said something about him as a rookie that showed how draft analysis is different than player evaluation.

 

Since I'm not a scout, a former NFL player or even a college player, I just figured I'd write this book for me. I just wanted to see if i could develop something that helped me see what scouts or analysts might see on film. The first year I did this, I purposely didn't look at ratings from anyone until I was through. I didn't want anyone to influence me. I just wanted to go strictly by film. As a result I remember having Mike Bell rated as an 85, a borderline starter in my system. When I saw most didn't even have him remotely that high and he didn't get drafted, I just laughed at myself. But then, he turned out to be the Broncos starter by the time of the opener. I had other instances like this and I was always tempted to bump players up or down according to the crowd, but I decided for as long as I continued to do this book that I won't look at ratings until I've studied all my film and scored the players first.

 

As a result, I stand to look foolish but as much as I want people to like my book, value my opinion, and to make enough money to actually keep doing it every year as a viable business, more than anything I want to keep learning so I get better at what I do. If I change my scores to look like other's then I won't learn anything. I do so much analysis that I'm not going to remember what I changed a year from now. It's best I just go about it honestly. Otherwise, I'm just as liable to downgrade a player I loved who turns out great. Trust me, I was tempted to downgrade Selvin Young and Ahmad Bradshaw last year.

 

So I have to live with my touting of Mike Hass, Dave Ball, Charles Sharon and Bruce Gradkowski. But I also get Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, and those other guys I've talked about.

Wildman when your overall body of work has been outstanding missing on a few players is more than acceptable. I think if you were reading the RSP for the first time it is obvious how hot or cold your overall enthusiasm and analysis with regards to each player. What I mean to say is that I still get some sense in HOW you write about a player impacts the strength of your conviction on that individual. You may be touting a player but your language when writing about that player may also indicate a strong caution or high level of enthusiasm. With Bradshaw last year there no was ambiguity in your write up, you were definitely stoked on that guy, and apparently spot on as well.

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Seems like your doing it the right way, and for all the right reasons. Had I gotten the sense you were compromising your honest assessments because they didn't jive with the consensus, you undoubtedly would have lost me on the sell. I could just as well tune in to ESPN, NFL Network, or any number of other outlets for that. Everyone is going to have their hits and misses along the way, but the only way your are going to add any value to the equation is to make them be your hits and your misses, and see where that ride takes you. You obviously get that and are off to a very good start. I wish you luck.

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Thanks

 

Obviously, I don't listen to everything and everyone...so why listen to me? It's a tough call even if you believe my argument is convincing. Like JGCrawfish is saying...not a bad year to trade down :angry:

I traded the 1.01 and next years first rounder for Gore and this years 1.12. Due in large part to the earlier commentary on DMAC and the overall uncertainty at the RB needs of most teams in the NFL. I would have taken Stewart at number one if I was unable to get a deal done. After reading this years RSP I am confident of getting a player with great upside at number 12. If I get real lucky my Dynasty team mates will draft according to the standard rankings floating around. :dunno:

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Great feedback to hear!

 

MDog...I hope the Gore and 1.12 works out for you. It's definitely a deal I'd be happy with (but I'm a Gore fan despite last year's performance)...I agree it's pretty clear which player captures my admiration regardless of how he scores on the evals.

 

Xenophobe--thanks for recognizing the philosophy behind what I'm trying to do and validating it.

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Thank you. Means a lot. I like hearing that people enjoy it. :wacko:

 

I look at it this way:

 

I'm just like most everyone here. I love football. I just decided I was going to do something like this and see it through. I also just happened to have a career where I studied best practices for performance evaluation after spending a decade managing call centers. I always believe I had a knack for spotting good players, but it was never a systematic process. So I figured if a company was going to pay $10K for me to learn about these best practices, why not apply them to something I enjoyed? Especially after watching Brian Westbrook become a terrific NFL player when Gil Brandt said something about him as a rookie that showed how draft analysis is different than player evaluation.

 

Since I'm not a scout, a former NFL player or even a college player, I just figured I'd write this book for me. I just wanted to see if i could develop something that helped me see what scouts or analysts might see on film. The first year I did this, I purposely didn't look at ratings from anyone until I was through. I didn't want anyone to influence me. I just wanted to go strictly by film. As a result I remember having Mike Bell rated as an 85, a borderline starter in my system. When I saw most didn't even have him remotely that high and he didn't get drafted, I just laughed at myself. But then, he turned out to be the Broncos starter by the time of the opener. I had other instances like this and I was always tempted to bump players up or down according to the crowd, but I decided for as long as I continued to do this book that I won't look at ratings until I've studied all my film and scored the players first.

 

As a result, I stand to look foolish but as much as I want people to like my book, value my opinion, and to make enough money to actually keep doing it every year as a viable business, more than anything I want to keep learning so I get better at what I do. If I change my scores to look like other's then I won't learn anything. I do so much analysis that I'm not going to remember what I changed a year from now. It's best I just go about it honestly. Otherwise, I'm just as liable to downgrade a player I loved who turns out great. Trust me, I was tempted to downgrade Selvin Young and Ahmad Bradshaw last year.

 

So I have to live with my touting of Mike Hass, Dave Ball, Charles Sharon and Bruce Gradkowski. But I also get Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, and those other guys I've talked about.

I think you've done a nice job, and no matter what happens, I'll be more than happy to order this portfolio next year. It's a crapshoot, but I would much rather get the opinion of someone who evaluates things as they are, instead of following the hype. I purchased this because I was high on Bradshaw and either drafted him, or picked him up for all my dynasty teams last year. Jennings was also another good catch. Everyone knows the obvious players, but guys like Jennings and Bradshaw that fly under the radar make all the difference. I took over a few dynasty teams late last year and one needs a ton of work. I have 6 picks from 1.9 to 3.2, so I feel good about your evaluations maybe helping me grab a couple of #2 WR's and maybe a sleeper pick somewhere. If not, no biggy.

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I just printed out all 497 pages (at work :rolleyes: ) and will begin to comb through this massive report. Looking forward to every minute! :thumbsup:

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I just printed out all 497 pages (at work :wub: ) and will begin to comb through this massive report. Looking forward to every minute! :overhead:

 

I've go some pine trees that need removal, I think printing that did the job!

 

Have fun! :wacko:

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Matt:

 

Under "The Top 15 Running back Prospects for Dynasty Leagues," you say..."In any dynasty league setting, I would be comfortable drafting the first five quarterbacks on the list."

 

Do you mean "first five running backs" or was that a copy and paste error. What is the number of RBs that you would comfortably draft?

 

Scott

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Yep, that was the occasional editing "miss." I'd feel highly comfortable with the first five RBs

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