Stock guys...

[mmmmm...beer 691]

I pulled everything out of my higher risk stuff a couple weeks ago.

 

What a focking yo-yo right now. With the whole Bretix vote going on later this month and the Fed bantering raising the rate the next month or two, plus this disaster of an election season.... not to mention the S&P being close to an all time high...

 

I'm out until at least after the election season or a big correction if the EU collapses with the British pulling out.

 

I just seems like its sooner than later.

 

I'm blue chipping it until the next big buying season.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

What... all you rich fockers have no thoughts on this?

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

I think that the market is over-valued right now. If I knew where to put my cash, then I would have it there. Right now, I have a lot of it in cash so that I can throw it in when the market gets back to a reasonable spot. I expect things will continue to drop through the summer with uncertainty and then things will go up after the election.

[hoytdwow 202]

Buy low, sell high

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

brexit

 

 

I have not yet moved my 401k assets or sold my individual stock holdings (some of those individual stocks are plays that won't really be impacted by the overall market as much as things going on specifically with those stocks) but the upcoming election has me thinking about moving all of my 401k into their money market option until the dust settles. Im sure the market will continue to yo-yo but overall I think the market will be down as the elction draws closer and while its taking place as uncertainty looms.

 

im too young and not a play it safe type of person anyway to NOT have my 401k largely in stocks but this is more of a planned out, short term realignment. Again, after the dust settles, I would go back to a roughly 90% stock holding.

 

 

If you're invested in slower growth stocks, might also be a good time to take your profits and see what shakes out during the elections and buy back at a lower price in 2017

[edjr 5,554]

TrumpUniversity

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Last week, I put all of my money into LinkedIn stock.

[edjr 5,554]

Last week, I put all of my money into LinkedIn stock.

 

Gawker is big right now

[Hardcore troubadour 12,618]

Gun stocks are soaring today

[parrot 789]

I have a stock '69 FJ40.

[IGotWorms 3,309]

Timing the market is a fools' errand IMO

[IGotWorms 3,309]

Last week, I put all of my money into LinkedIn stock.

Is there anything useful about LinkedIn? I don't get it

[tanatastic 2,061]

All of it on one hand of blackjack. Same outcome just saves time.

[edjr 5,554]

Timing the market is a fools' errand IMO

 

Not if you're Phil Mickelson

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Timing the market is a fools' errand IMO

 

thank you mr finance cliche

 

I dont think any non day trader is seriously attempting to time the market. but its narrow minded to say that there are not certain stretches where one could stash their money in a safer vehicle. you're never going to time the market to an exact top or bottom but you could, pretty easily cash out current gain and wait for a new, better entry point

[BLS 313]

Gun stocks are soaring today

 

Ya think? Panic buying has already begun.

 

And here I was going to take the summer off.

[iam90sbaby 2,122]

I have a couple grand tied up in:

 

RMHB

TRTC

PHOT

GRHN

CANV

MJNA

ERBB

 

One will be the next Marlboro of the cannabis industry, and I will be a millionaire.

[BLS 313]

Also, back when gas hit .99/gallon, I moved everything into Fossil Fuel mutual funds.

 

It's worked out pretty well.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Is there anything useful about LinkedIn? I don't get it

 

Microsoft will want to make it the Facebook for business. Tie the information to feed Dynamics CRM and their Knowledge Management stuff. Think social networking for business that links to internal systems so that you find out about businesses and their people. It has value. Whether it is $26B worth, I don't know.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,618]

I have a couple grand tied up in:

 

RMHB

TRTC

PHOT

GRHN

CANV

MJNA

ERBB

 

One will be the next Marlboro of the cannabis industry, and I will be a millionaire.

I like your thinking. What are they going for right now about? Any leader in the clubhouse?

[iam90sbaby 2,122]

I like your thinking. What are they going for right now about? Any leader in the clubhouse?

 

Out of those? Terra Tech (TRTC).

 

Gary Johnson is actually the CEO of Cannabis Sativa Inc (CBDS) which I invested in about 6-7 months, it is working out nicely.. His campaign should be great publicity.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,618]

 

Out of those? Terra Tech (TRTC).

 

Gary Johnson is actually the CEO of Cannabis Sativa Inc (CBDS) which I invested in about 6-7 months, it is working out nicely.. His campaign should be great publicity.

Got me thinking. Thanks.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I made a little on PHOT back when legalized weed was news worthy.

[iam90sbaby 2,122]

Got me thinking. Thanks.

 

You should see a jump in these stocks each time a state makes cannabis legal, this November we should see a huge jump once California finally makes rec legal.

[frank 2,144]

Arby's

[IGotWorms 3,309]

 

thank you mr finance cliche

 

I dont think any non day trader is seriously attempting to time the market. but its narrow minded to say that there are not certain stretches where one could stash their money in a safer vehicle. you're never going to time the market to an exact top or bottom but you could, pretty easily cash out current gain and wait for a new, better entry point

And that is called...timing the market.

[MDC 5,890]

Put the milks that are about to expire in the front. It helps move inventory and keeps the milk with a longer expiration date in the back. Hehe suckers.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

And that is called...timing the market.

 

not really. timing the market is trying to play every swing. what I laid out was more of a long term investing practice. You take your $$ out of stocks for 6-7 months and ignore the wild swings and re enter once the election dust settles. you don't try to pick a bottom, you just wait until the market is a bit more stable

[JTB 52]

To me a lot of data points to an over inflated market propped up by record breaking low rates. There is nothing wrong with taking some profit and reverse dollar cost average out of the market. When dips arise consider buying back in after your all in cash.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

brexit

 

 

I have not yet moved my 401k assets or sold my individual stock holdings (some of those individual stocks are plays that won't really be impacted by the overall market as much as things going on specifically with those stocks) but the upcoming election has me thinking about moving all of my 401k into their money market option until the dust settles. Im sure the market will continue to yo-yo but overall I think the market will be down as the elction draws closer and while its taking place as uncertainty looms.

 

im too young and not a play it safe type of person anyway to NOT have my 401k largely in stocks but this is more of a planned out, short term realignment. Again, after the dust settles, I would go back to a roughly 90% stock holding.

 

 

If you're invested in slower growth stocks, might also be a good time to take your profits and see what shakes out during the elections and buy back at a lower price in 2017

Essentially it's the couple hundred grand in my 401k type that I moved into our money market fund. Our more volitole funds follow the S&P500, Small Caps, and an International fund.

 

I have 8-10 years left... want to get a couple good years from now till then. I really don't believe there's much market to miss out on between now and Dec... but there's a ton of downswing to miss IMO.

 

Need to turn that 200k to >$500k to support my pension. Shouldn't be too hard if I pay attention.

 

Have you guys heard of a Seasonal Mix investing strategy?

 

Seems really interesting. The different letter funds are what fed employees Thrift Savings Plan (401k) have available as investment options.

 

I was going to start following it a couple weeks ago. Didn't as I put everything into our Money Market fund (G Fund) and danged if the "F Fund" the strategy recommends isn'the up a full percentage point for the month. Would a been 2k I'd have made. Anyway... when I get back in I may follow it.

 

There's a website I'v been reading where a group of guys use this one:

 

Monthly Allocation:

Jan: S Fund

Feb: S Fund

Mar: C Fund

Apr: C Fund

May: C Fund

Jun: F Fund

Jul: C Fund

Aug: F Fund

Sep: F Fund

Oct: C Fund

Nov: C Fund

Dec: S Fund

 

S Fund: DWCPF

C Fund: S&P500

F Fund: AGG

 

Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR aka: average rate of return including negative years)

 

Since 1988: CAGR 16.81%, PNR 93% (26 of 28)

Last 20 years: CAGR 15.15%

Last 10 years: CAGR 13.06%

Last 5 years: CAGR 17.68%

 

Like any system, though, seasonal systems have Pros and Cons.

 

Pros:

 

- Emotion is removed from the decision making process. Everything is analyzed logically by establishing quantified limitations of what a good month looks like, what the odds are of having a positive month vs the likelihood of a month being negative. Don't be fooled, you will still feel the emotion, but if you can keep it out of the decision making process then this is a plus.

 

- Its a systematic approach that analyzes the data and makes adjustments as necessary. You dont blindly follow the system, you understand why youre in a certain fund at a certain time and have factual data to support that understanding.

 

- It tends to produce consistent returns.

 

- Simple: only 6 moves a year for most systems, 12 moves at most, some have just 2.

 

Cons:

 

- If you commit to the strategy, you must follow through with it and ride the emotions that come with rough times. I made the mistake of not doing so in Feb 2014 the market took a short dive in late Jan / early Feb while I was in the S fund. I got scared and ran to the F fund for the duration of Feb because the F fund is the second-best fund for that month. While that Feb 14 was a positive for the F fund (0.62%), the S fund came back strong and had a return of 5.43%. This mistake on my part has made a big difference in my 14 real-world return. I further compounded the problem when I went looking for an indicator to keep me from losing again a stop loss trigger of sorts. That indicator ended up failing me because I didnt fully understand it until I did a lot of digging and research. Before I could finish my learning, the indicator caused even more losses for me in Oct 2014, after which I finally figured out why the indicator didnt work the way I thought it did. Ive learned my lesson: follow the data, trust the numbers. The Law of Averages works.

 

- No system works all of the time. Sometimes it just wont work. Were playing the odds with this strategy and while the Law of Averages says we should win in the long run, it also says that well also have periods when we dont. What we are doing is stacking the deck in our favor and making an informed decision on where and when we invest. Its the long-term end result you need to keep your focus on, not the short term dips and peaks. Followers of Bogles philosophy can appreciate this sentiment.

 

- Times when the markets move sideways for a long time are frustrating to this system because were looking for clear positives and negatives during certain times. At such times, we have to resist the urge to try to play Market Timer and try to do better. You avoid doing this by remembering that a small positive is still a positive, and a small negative could be much worse if we arent good at our market timing decisions.

 

So what does it take to follow a system like this?

 

- An interest in paying attention to what your account is doing while acknowledging that we dont know enough to play Market Timer well enough to produce reliable returns. Flailing around trying to guess what the market will do tomorrow or next week isnt a good strategy. Kudos to those that understand the technical indicators well enough to trade them with confidence, but a seasonal investor doest fall into that camp.

 

- Dedication to follow a logical system without letting emotion get in the way.

 

- A long-term focus: 12% a year over 30 years turns a biweekly $200 allocation into around $1,500,000. This would represent a FERS employee that makes $52,000 a year allocating 5% and gets the 5% match for 30 years, and doesnt get a pay raise the entire time.

 

- A willingness to ignore how well or poorly everybody else is doing, what the media is saying, whether or not the experts are saying to buy or sell, etc. Let the numbers do the talking for us and aim to get the average as positive as we can. The major exception to this is paying attention to the policies and interest rates set by the Federal Reserve they will absolutely impact the F Fund, and to a smaller extent the G Fund.

 

You might be thinking Thats all fine and dandy, but what data is out there to support a seasonal system? Answer: tons of it. Many books have been written on seasonal trends in general. Websites are abundant on the topic. Specifically for the TSP, http://www.tsp.gov has historical data going back to 1988 for the G, F and C Funds, and its easy to find similar data for the S and I Funds (which TSP has back to 2001). Ive taken the time to make an Excel workbook that details all of the monthly returns for each Fund going back to 1988. This includes the calculated the CAGRs as well as the annual Positive / Negative Rate (PNR) for each Fund for each month. Most months are pretty black and white as to whether or not its a good time to be in the market according to the odds. Then I track various seasonal mixes using that data, and even compare them against each other in order to find the best possible mixture. I freely offer the Excel workbook to anybody who asks nicely, just ask those that already have a copy of it. But be forewarned: its big. Theres a lot of manipulation of data going on, and lots of little tweaks need to be done manually each month to keep it updated. I cant teach everybody how to keep it updated because theres so many moving parts to change every month and at the end of the year, it would take too long. But the Excel Gurus out there can see what Im doing, and its not too hard to figure out if you understand how functions work in the program. Everything is pretty cut and dry function-wise.

 

[mmmmm...beer 691]

White Wonder?

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

White Wonder?

?

 

No i honestly havnt heard of the seasonal mix strategy though I understand the basic idea of it from your post and can see how it would make sense of you stick with it.

[DankNuggs 305]

I think that the market is over-valued right now. If I knew where to put my cash, then I would have it there. Right now, I have a lot of it in cash so that I can throw it in when the market gets back to a reasonable spot. I expect things will continue to drop through the summer with uncertainty and then things will go up after the election.

Thats funny, my take is that the powers that be will keep the market humming through election season because a falter would hurt democratic reelection chances. Once the election is over whomever it is will get stuck holding the bag on the economic retraction that is coming. Real Estate is hitting that 2008 type of frenzy, I'm hearing commercial equipment financing is very slow and quiet right now.

 

Safest bet is blue chips and dividend producing stocks/ETFs... Just get something kicking off some dividend yield while you bide you time.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Well just as a bit of an update. In the last to months the investment strategy I'm following has me up 13.77%. If April holds positive in the next couple days thats 11 mo. at almost 15% return.

 

So the almost year lomg experiment seems like a pretty decent success to me so far.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

You timed that one right. I break my investments in chunks based on timing as you don't want to get caught with bad timing. My last chunk from January (to ride the Trump wave) is down 8%, but I should have sold when it hit up 40%. My bad on that. The other 5-6 chunks have good returns in the 25-35% range over the last 18 months.

[joneo 529]

PLASTIC

 

 

 

But seriously, the parent company of Kleenex due to the incessant crying of the liberals. https://www.google.com/#q=kimberly+clark+stock

[Cdub100 3,379]

Well just as a bit of an update. In the last to months the investment strategy I'm following has me up 13.77%. If April holds positive in the next couple days thats 11 mo. at almost 15% return.

 

So the almost year lomg experiment seems like a pretty decent success to me so far.

 

Here's the thing. Thanks to Trump the market is booming. People not making money in the stock market right now are idiots.

 

So you might want to wait for a down period before evaluating your experiment.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

 

Here's the thing. Thanks to Trump the market is booming. People not making money in the stock market right now are idiots.

 

So you might want to wait for a down period before evaluating your experiment.

 

pretty much this.

 

i havn't made great decisions in my 401k since right around the election and even mine is up almost 9% YTD

 

I've made hits on the individual stocks ive bought and sold and then I have some more speculative holds that are down overall but up since Trump took office.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

 

Out of those? Terra Tech (TRTC).

 

Gary Johnson is actually the CEO of Cannabis Sativa Inc (CBDS) which I invested in about 6-7 months, it is working out nicely.. His campaign should be great publicity.

 

 

I see TRTC is down about 50% since June of 16. I didn't look at the others. Did you get out of it? Still holding? Any of the others on your list doing well?

 

Just curious.

 

I just checked CBDS. That is up about double from Jun of 16.

I did notice that both of the tickers I referenced were down considerably over the past 5 days. Is this based on any news or just???

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

For my 401K I'm going with a slightly higher risk fund and will keep it there unless someone lights off a nuke.