Looking Ahead To Redrafts 2017: First Four Rounds (1/5/17)

[Fumbleweed 422]

This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2017 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly.

Round One:

1. David Johnson
2. Ezekiel Elliottt
3. Le'Veon Bell
4. Antonio Brown
5. Odell Beckham, Jr.
6. LeSean McCoy
7. Julio Jones
8. Mike Evans
9. Jordy Nelson
10. Melvin Gordon
11. Jordan Howard
12. Aaron Rodgers

Round Two:

13. DeMarco Murray
14. A.J. Green
15. Devonta Freeman
16. Jay Ajayi
17. Drew Brees
18. Mark Ingram
19. Andrew Luck
20. T.Y. Hilton
21. Dez Bryant
22. Lamar Miller
23. Tom Brady
24. Amari Cooper

Round Three:

25. Michael Thomas
26. Brandin Cooks
27. Matt Ryan
28. Todd Gurley
29. Adrian Peterson
30. Rob Gronkowski
31. Davante Adams
32. Carlos Hyde
33. Kirk Cousins
34. Travis Kelce
35. Cam Newton
36. DeAndre Hopkins

Round Four:

37. Demaryius Thomas
38. LeGarrette Blount
39. Doug Baldwin
40. Eddie Lacy
41. Jimmy Graham
42. Dak Prescott
43. Sammy Watkins
44. Jonathan Stewart

45. Ben Roethlisberger

46. Golden Tate
47. Isaiah Crowell
48. Derek Carr

Thoughts??

 

[giraldi02 470]

I think this year reinforced a lot of fantasy owners to wait on quarterback moving forward.

 

It won't surprise me if in the lead up to next season, a good bulk of the conversation is going to focus on this. Think "Zero RB" discussion that took place prior to this season.

 

Colin Kaepernick's fantasy performance this season simply proves that drafting a QB early is bad strategy, regardless of perceived value.

[DocNiner 44]

The way you have them now, not bad, as I sure there'll a lot of movin' & shufflin'til drafts but as it is now I would be pretty happy with gettin Gronk, Kelce &Adams in the 3rd rd.! I be happy as well with any of your top 4 as a first pick in the top 5. I think you can wait on Prescott a bit and if you do I think he'll do right by you. I think he's got good upside and definitely a top 10 QB in '17.

[Bills04 45]

No way, numbers: 33, 35, 36, 42 & 44...

[dcgangstas 41]

It's a good start, though we'll have to see where Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette land. That will change the order significantly.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Is Crowell the Browns lead dog for sure? Like you said you are assuming little change, but the Browns signed a rb i have had on and off dynasty rosters in Darius Jackson. He reminds me of Latavius Murray. A physically imposing guy with good speed, but on tape it looks like he should probably be more productive than he actually is. I would also think they would be looking for someone to compliment him a little better. I don't think he is studly enough to warrant his own backfield all to himself. He isn't a Bell or Johnson or Ellliott.

 

Andrew Luck, please for the love of jebus get this guy an offensive line!!!!! I would have fired the GM as harshly as I could for being such an incompetent boob. In that horrible division they can't even win it! Well I guess the other 3 teams are on the rise from drafting at the bottom every year, but still the fact that the Colts can't dominate a at best mediocre division, the GM is just beyond incompetent. I swear the NFL craves failure.

 

Eddie Lacy? I wouldn't eve waste a roster spot on that bum.

 

Where is Tyreek Hill? He did all this damage as a rookie. Imagine an offense of growing the game plans around him and him being more comfortable in his role.

 

I think Rishard Matthews may jump up into the top 4 rounds. I know if people let him slip again I will be all over him.

 

Malcom Mitchell can jump into the top 4 rounds with some good post season/preseason showings. Although I think constant injury may be a real concern with this guy (sorry Mulls. does this drop his trade pice? )

 

Golden Tate is such a blah name. Dude obviously isn't all that talented. Just a nice receiver who pops sometimes. I think a more talented guy does a lot better in that situation.

[cyclone24 1,805]

Ill say this...if Jordan howard makes it to me at 6th...ill be pretty friggin happy.

[giraldi02 470]

Where is Tyreek Hill? He did all this damage as a rookie. Imagine an offense of growing the game plans around him and him being more comfortable in his role.

 

If you travel back in time about four years ago, you could substitute Tyreek Hill's name with Cordarrelle Patterson.

 

Same player, ones just a bit faster.

[phillygrrl08 139]

Early, but I'd probably have Gronk ranked higher. Depends on how he looks in training camp. Gurley in the third may be where he falls, he sure burned a lot of people this year. Cooks is pretty far down. I might have Crabtree and Fitzgerald squeezed in somewhere.

 

Overall, bot a bad start for January.

[weepaws 2,452]

Nine Qbs in the first four rounds, interesting.

 

That's way to early for me.

[DankNuggs 305]

 

If you travel back in time about four years ago, you could substitute Tyreek Hill's name with Cordarrelle Patterson.

 

Same player, ones just a bit faster.

Not at all...very different players... Cordarelle just ran fly patterns and returned punts, no football IQ... Tyreek can ball out.

[ralphster 274]

Tyreek = Tavon Austin 2.0

 

Not bad for a pregnant girlfriend choker.

 

I'd switch Jordy with AJ. Nuk too low, I think he bounces back and am buying him all over. AP and Stewy way too high. QBs too high, but that's your scoring.

[petekrum 20]

Ill say this...if Jordan howard makes it to me at 6th...ill be pretty friggin happy.

If Howard makes it to the 6th, you're drafting with assorted fruit.

[petekrum 20]

Nine Qbs in the first four rounds, interesting.

That's way to early for me.

Agree, way to many QBs, way to early.

[weepaws 2,452]

I would agree , in a non ppr league Howard should be picked by pick six.

 

I'm not in any non ppr leagues , so for me his value is a little lower.

 

I don't see him as a first round pick in a ppr league.

 

Sorry fixed it.

[Masterminds 5]

I would agree , in a non ppr league Howard should be picked by round six.

 

I'm not in any non ppr leagues , so for me his vaule is a little lower.

 

I don't see him as a first round pick in a ppr league.

I think he means pick #6, not round 6.

[giraldi02 470]

I would agree , in a non ppr league Howard should be picked by round six.

 

I'm not in any non ppr leagues , so for me his vaule is a little lower.

 

I don't see him as a first round pick in a ppr league.

 

There's no way Howard makes it out of Round 2 in any format.

 

Howard had 50 targets on the season. That's seven fewer than LeSean McCoy and 15 fewer than Devonta Freeman. People are going to focus on the lack of catches (29) and not the opportunity that he had.

[weepaws 2,452]

First of all yeah I meant pick number six and not round six sorry.

 

Second yeah I won't draft him in my ppr format in the first round.

 

So he might not make it out of the first round in my ppr leagues , but I won't pay for him that early.

 

McCoy also had 51 rec from those 58 targets.

 

Howard had 29.

 

Also Howard was the only Rb that had 50 plus targets that was under 30 rec.

 

And he ranked 21 in rec yards of all Rbs that had more then 40 targets.

 

I don't see a player that's all that great in the passing game.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

First of all yeah I meant pick number six and not round six sorry.

 

Second yeah I won't draft him in my ppr format in the first round.

 

So he might not make it out of the first round in my ppr leagues , but I won't pay for him that early.

 

McCoy also had 51 rec from those 58 targets.

 

Howard had 29.

 

Also Howard was the only Rb that had 50 plus targets that was under 30 rec.

 

And he ranked 21 in rec yards of all Rbs that had more then 40 targets.

 

I don't see a player that's all that great in the passing game.

 

He was never known as a receiving back yet managed to get plenty of targets as a rookie. Give him an off season to focus on improving and he should be even better next year. I see no reason to expect worse unless he has fewer targets.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

 

This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2017 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly.

 

Round One:

 

1. David Johnson

2. Ezekiel Elliottt

3. Le'Veon Bell

4. Antonio Brown

5. Odell Beckham, Jr.

6. LeSean McCoy

7. Julio Jones

8. Mike Evans

9. Jordy Nelson

10. Melvin Gordon

11. Jordan Howard

12. Aaron Rodgers

 

Round Two:

 

13. DeMarco Murray

14. A.J. Green

15. Devonta Freeman

16. Jay Ajayi

17. Drew Brees

18. Mark Ingram

19. Andrew Luck

20. T.Y. Hilton

21. Dez Bryant

22. Lamar Miller

23. Tom Brady

24. Amari Cooper

 

Round Three:

 

25. Michael Thomas

26. Brandin Cooks

27. Matt Ryan

28. Todd Gurley

29. Adrian Peterson

30. Rob Gronkowski

31. Davante Adams

32. Carlos Hyde

33. Kirk Cousins

34. Travis Kelce

35. Cam Newton

36. DeAndre Hopkins

 

Round Four:

 

37. Demaryius Thomas

38. LeGarrette Blount

39. Doug Baldwin

40. Eddie Lacy

41. Jimmy Graham

42. Dak Prescott

43. Sammy Watkins

44. Jonathan Stewart

45. Ben Roethlisberger

46. Golden Tate

47. Isaiah Crowell

48. Derek Carr

 

Thoughts??

 

 

 

Because your league is QB-friendly, that looks reasonable at this point in time.

 

Not sure on Carr's status for next season, so I can see him dropping down a lot further.

 

I think Houston, again, has to address their QB situation. If they get Romo, I think Hopkins is a 1st round WR.

 

Don't think McCoy gets taken that high, but 2nd round is reasonable.

[gitrdun 16]

Romo goes to Denver, lookout could have monster season.

[weepaws 2,452]

I think in a non ppr league he's worthy of a first round pick.

 

But I'm not excited about making him my first round pick in a ppr league.

[Kent 228]

Tyreek = Tavon Austin 2.0

 

Not bad for a pregnant girlfriend choker.

 

I'd switch Jordy with AJ. Nuk too low, I think he bounces back and am buying him all over. AP and Stewy way too high. QBs too high, but that's your scoring.

Tyreek is built like a RB. Tavon is built like a small European female model. The comparison isn't legitimate.

[giraldi02 470]

Tyreek is built like a RB. Tavon is built like a small European female model. The comparison isn't legitimate.

Ummm...Tyreek is 5-10 185

Austin is 5-9 174

[thePRO 78]

No way do I buy Cooper going at the end of round 2 and I guess if that was his ADP I'd never draft him. I'd much rather have Crabtree in the 4th or 5th.

[weepaws 2,452]

I agree with you about Cooper.

 

I rather wait and draft Crabtree later.

 

He's out scored Cooper the last two seasons.

 

And even if Cooper out scores him this season it will be very close and that would still make Crabtree the better buy.

[cmh6476 748]

not enough Chiefs

[robb 71]

A player no one mentions who I think will end up being drafted in the 3/4 rounds by August will be:

 

Perkins, RB, New York Giants

 

He will be their starter by then and mark my word, folks will be jumpin' to get him then.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

A player no one mentions who I think will end up being drafted in the 3/4 rounds by August will be:

 

Perkins, RB, New York Giants

 

He will be their starter by then and mark my word, folks will be jumpin' to get him then.

 

Possible. I'd wait until after the NFL draft before I'd commit on which round he'd go in.

[weepaws 2,452]

Having a tough time seeing Perkins as a third or fourth round pick.

 

Maybe in a non ppr league.

[Super Cubs 132]

McCoy seems a little high and AJ Green a little low. I agree with others about Copper not worthy of the 2nd round. I could see Gurley jumping up to round 2 or even the end of round 1.

 

Overall great job and a good way to kick off 2017.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Tyreek = Tavon Austin 2.0

 

Not bad for a pregnant girlfriend choker.

 

I'd switch Jordy with AJ. Nuk too low, I think he bounces back and am buying him all over. AP and Stewy way too high. QBs too high, but that's your scoring.

I just read about that last week. What a POS.

[DankNuggs 305]

Ummm...Tyreek is 5-10 185

Austin is 5-9 174

Good point. Makes me wonder because Tyreek looks solidly built for a little guy. Played RB in college.

 

But i'll take the guy whose team is offensively gameplanning for him over the abyss that is the Rams offense. He could end up being a gimmick, and it bothered me seeing him drop so many passes late in the season. He needs to take a step up, and i hope his success and newly inflated ego doesn't hinder that

 

edit i just read he had the highest looks/snap (targets + carries)/snap of any player in the NFL by a wide margin.

[Smileseers 54]

1. David Johnson
2. Ezekiel Elliottt
3. Le'Veon Bell
4. Antonio Brown
5. Odell Beckham, Jr.
6. Julio Jones
7. Mike Evans

 

To me this is tier one and in redrafts I want one of these first seven picks.

 

[weepaws 2,452]

Even with the Gmen releasing Jennings I still don't see Perkins as a third or forth round pick.

[lesjroza 70]

Re: Comments on Jordan Howard's draft slot, he would be easily the most dangerous first round pick of the group at this point in the season IMO.

 

We have no idea yet what the Bears offense will look like, most all of it............ from QB to WR. What statistically appeared to be an improving run-blocking OL in great part could have been Ds playing loose due to game script for an outsized portion of games. If the Bears are a little more competitive due to an improving D would anybody be shocked by more stacked lines vs whoever the Bears and Foxy trot out at QB?

 

Between the complete unknowns and the short sample size of success........... pick 1.06 or anywhere close is a VERY poor risk/reward allocation.

 

What I'm saying is different than no way Howard has a good year. I'm saying taking him that high prices in all of the upside without consideration for the downside compared to other players in the first couple of rounds. Until things take shape more for the Bears, its 2 full rounds too high IMO.

[weepaws 2,452]

I say taking Howard in the first round is one round too high.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Re: Comments on Jordan Howard's draft slot, he would be easily the most dangerous first round pick of the group at this point in the season IMO.

 

We have no idea yet what the Bears offense will look like, most all of it............ from QB to WR. What statistically appeared to be an improving run-blocking OL in great part could have been Ds playing loose due to game script for an outsized portion of games. If the Bears are a little more competitive due to an improving D would anybody be shocked by more stacked lines vs whoever the Bears and Foxy trot out at QB?

 

Between the complete unknowns and the short sample size of success........... pick 1.06 or anywhere close is a VERY poor risk/reward allocation.

 

What I'm saying is different than no way Howard has a good year. I'm saying taking him that high prices in all of the upside without consideration for the downside compared to other players in the first couple of rounds. Until things take shape more for the Bears, its 2 full rounds too high IMO.

Kyle Long missed part of the season and was never fully healthy. Sutton was injured for some games. Whitehair is a rookie. The Bears have the making of a very good interior line, which will suit Howard's style big time. He is less of a risk than most of the rbs out there.

[lesjroza 70]

Kyle Long missed part of the season and was never fully healthy. Sutton was injured for some games. Whitehair is a rookie. The Bears have the making of a very good interior line, which will suit Howard's style big time. He is less of a risk than most of the rbs out there.

 

That's kind of vague relative to my primary supposition that Howard at 1.06....................... or even in the 1st round at all is poor risk/reward.

 

How does what you are saying translate to a draft slot for you?

[ralphster 274]

right now we're just spitballing and Howard's youth and the carrying he did down the stretch when everyone knew he was getting the ball was impressive.

 

Id guess Fox keeps Hoyer as a bridge and drafts a qb high. Bears dump Cutler, sign Alshon to a 4/40 w escalators.

 

oline continues to develop and finishes in the 10-14 range, meaning Howard should put up close to or better numbers than last year.

 

1.06 in redraft is higher than I'd take him. FFC has him at 1.10 in ppr right now, still higher than I'd take him. But if I was picking at the turn and could package him w AJ or Dez...