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cyclone24

Experts dont know anymore than you or me...

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I took the average of CBS start em sit em advice and their results by position:

 

CBS says to start at QB:

Kaepernick, Romo, and Dalton who combined for: 712 yards, 3 TDS, 3 INT and 1 fumble

 

CBS says to sit at QB:

Newton, Rivers,Cutler who combined for: 741 yards, 8 tds. 0 tds

 

 

CBS says to start at RB:

Greene, Spiller, Jennings, Gore who combined for: 236 yards and 1 td

 

CBS says to sit at RB:

Matthews, Stacy, Ridley, SJAX who combined for: 249 yards and 2 tds

 

 

CBS says to start at WR:

Hunter, Cooks, Wallace who combined for: 99 yards and 1 td

 

CBS says to sit at WR:

Cruz, S Smith, Decker who combined for 174 yards and 1 td

 

TE is a wash as they said to start Delanie walker but sit Antonio Gates.

 

 

My point is...these knuckleheads get pinned as experts and ive said a million times....they dont know any more than you or i do.

 

Go with your gut, dont overthink.

(Note: i did throw out some high and lows, and not every one CBS listed did i include bc of injury, mon night game, etc)

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As far as who to start and who to sit it's really just educated guessing. Anyone can do it. The thing that the experts I would think should know since they usually have insider info is if someone is playing that day or not. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey were prime examples as "75% sure they aren't starting tonight. Bench them" Those things now you would think the experts would get right. I'm sure almost everyone had both these guys benched. As far as a player not performing like they said they would I usually take with a grain of salt because you never know what's going to happen in fantasy.

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They don't know anymore than you or I. It's not like they've got the head coaches telling them "between you and me, we're going to run our whole gameplan through Player X" or whatever.

 

The one thing you HOPE is that they are perhaps a little more educated on all the bits of intel that are out there for anyone to see. I try to keep up on player news but it isn't a full time job for me. It is for these guys so if they actually do their jobs well (big if), they might hit a bit more often than the guy who's just checking Rotoworld on his lunch break.

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They don't know anymore than you or I. It's not like they've got the head coaches telling them "between you and me, we're going to run our whole gameplan through Player X" or whatever.

 

The one thing you HOPE is that they are perhaps a little more educated on all the bits of intel that are out there for anyone to see. I try to keep up on player news but it isn't a full time job for me. It is for these guys so if they actually do their jobs well (big if), they might hit a bit more often than the guy who's just checking Rotoworld on his lunch break.

 

 

Agreed. I think most of them...well all of them are just providing entertainment content during the week. Every site has something almost everyday between monday thru sunday morning.

Tomorrow we will get waiver wire articles, wednesday we get thursday night previews, etc etc. No real content, but entertainment filler.

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I tune if for the wisdom imparted by guys like Ray Lewis, Mike Ditka, Chris Carter, and Charles Barkley - domestic abuse, drug abuse, child abuse... these are the voices the public needs to hear - these are the guys that understand the "magic" of the NFL and how it can flip a switch to change our society for the better. :rolleyes:

 

ohyeah - they're also bad at analyzing teh footballs.

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I do like watching them for entertainment. Sometimes it's just to make myself feel better about starting someone. But I usually have my lineup set beforehand by my own analysis. Usually works for me

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Gotta take their advice with a grain of salt. One thing I gotta agree with is sitting Rivers against Seattle - Seattle has a history of shutting down QBs so it stands to reason to not play a QB playing Seattle - of course there are instances where a QB will have a good game - but statistically it's a wise move. Also, they were right about starting Wallace - 5/56 and a TD - I'll take that all day long.

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Just listen to their logic, if you say to yourself, "hey that makes sense, I kind of agree with that take" use it. If you don't agree, leave it.

 

It's your team, make your own informed decisions.

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If you look at fantasy pros expert accuracy ratings, even the best "experts" are only 60-62% accurate. The worst experts are in the 55% range. But as we all know, this game is mostly luck. All the analysis in the world will only give you a slightly better chance at winning. Whether that's your analysis or someone elses is irrelevent. I basically use fantasy pros rankings using the most accurate 20 experts to guide all my decisions. I've been #1 or 2 at the end of the regular season in every league I've been in for the last 3 years. That little bit of extra accuracy adds up over time.

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It's a cush job, if you can get it.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

How many of us would quit our jobs and make 100K+ to be Matthew Berry "Senior Fantasy Football Analyst"

 

His job is to guess who will be good and bad. That is his JOB!! We pay to play and hopefully win a couple hundred dollars. He cashes a check every week for doing this for a living. It's insane. How in the hell did he even get this job?! Where do I apply?

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A lot of them can't look at picks objectionably and some keep making their picks based on prior performance. Romo and Brady are prime examples of this.

 

Also, an unknown factor in equating a player's success is the team's use of that player. Week 1 Jamal Charles got what, 13 touches? Last night Forte wasn't targeted much on screens, etc. Vereen taking a backseat to Ridley yesterday is another example. Puzzling moves that make sense only to the coaching staff of that team.

 

Just realize a great deal of it's luck and make percentage based picks. Also avoid the hype trains (Ladarius Greene, Hyde, etc...) where you're starting players who are second and third stringers.

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Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

How many of us would quit our jobs and make 100K+ to be Matthew Berry "Senior Fantasy Football Analyst"

 

His job is to guess who will be good and bad. That is his JOB!! We pay to play and hopefully win a couple hundred dollars. He cashes a check every week for doing this for a living. It's insane. How in the hell did he even get this job?! Where do I apply?

For real thats the dream job. REally its just a job for a sports journalist like any other. But in this case you dont even have to be good at your job, just need to be a good tv commentator. Fantasy being 80%+ luck you can just say anything and some of it will stick. Its not hard to follow football and make educated guesses. I could teach a 1 day class about advanced FF theory and concepts and turn a room full of kids into experts. nfact...thats not the worst idea...I may be on to something here.

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I tune if for the wisdom imparted by guys like Ray Lewis, Mike Ditka, Chris Carter, and Charles Barkley - domestic abuse, drug abuse, child abuse... these are the voices the public needs to hear - these are the guys that understand the "magic" of the NFL and how it can flip a switch to change our society for the better. :rolleyes:

 

ohyeah - they're also bad at analyzing teh footballs.

I never watch these shows but I wanted to check out Colin's Football Show (which was OK). Anywho, I caught the beginning of the next program and Chris Carter was going off like he was MLK or someone talking about the AP thing. I busted out laughing.

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We're all experts with the internet!!

 

My expertise...here it goes:

 

Don't start RG3 this week.

 

Drew Brees is home, he'll throw for 300 and 3 TD's.

 

Houston's defense will shine and at least 2 int's

 

Adrian Peterson will get boo'd and take a couple cheap shots and no whistle will be blown.

 

Stafford and Rodgers will both throw for 300, Jordy, Cobb, Calvin, Golden all go for 100.

 

Peyton will throw for 400 and Emanuel will shatter Sherman and of course Sherman will blame his teammates.

 

Lastly, LaMarr Miller will run for 200 yards.

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If you look at fantasy pros expert accuracy ratings, even the best "experts" are only 60-62% accurate. The worst experts are in the 55% range. But as we all know, this game is mostly luck. All the analysis in the world will only give you a slightly better chance at winning. Whether that's your analysis or someone elses is irrelevent. I basically use fantasy pros rankings using the most accurate 20 experts to guide all my decisions. I've been #1 or 2 at the end of the regular season in every league I've been in for the last 3 years. That little bit of extra accuracy adds up over time.

 

Exactly what I was going to post. The most consistent "experts" appear to be the Yahoo crew.

 

I was trying to decide who to start at FLEX for my PPR league last Sunday. Going by Fantasypros's overall ranking, I should have started Terrance Williams. But after narrowing down rankings to top 10 accuracy, the recommendation change to Matt Asiata. I combined that with Profootballfocus assessment of New England run defense which was poor and went with Asiata. Of course I got lucky with the pass TD, but it does seem like the more accurate "experts" put more thought into their rankings.

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Use expert rankings as entertainment only. If they mention some good insight use it for decision making.

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Matthew Berry has a job doing what ANY one of us could do and I am sure he gets paid fairly well to do it.

 

Now I am sad.

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Experts suck. After over 10 years of doing this I still dont go with my gut most of the time and its always right. Experts can suck it.

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I ALWAYS trust my gut, only using the EPG's (experts, prognosticators, and gurus) for entertainment. If you know the game of football and have played this fantasy thang for years.....just go with your instincts and experience. You still will be dead-wrong sometimes, but when you hit....you know it was all you.

 

For what it's worth, I think Pianowski from Yahoo! is statistically as accurate as anybody in the business.

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We're all experts with the internet!!

 

My expertise...here it goes:

 

Don't start RG3 this week.

 

Drew Brees is home, he'll throw for 300 and 3 TD's.

 

Houston's defense will shine and at least 2 int's

 

Adrian Peterson will get boo'd and take a couple cheap shots and no whistle will be blown.

 

Stafford and Rodgers will both throw for 300, Jordy, Cobb, Calvin, Golden all go for 100.

 

Peyton will throw for 400 and Emanuel will shatter Sherman and of course Sherman will blame his teammates.

 

Lastly, LaMarr Miller will run for 200 yards.

I'll give you my locks for outstanding week 3 performances..........I have to wait for my opponent to set their roster first.

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The average rankings of the "experts" had Bradshaw in the 40s for RB, behind TRich. So I sit him and his 2 TDs tonight in favor of Pierre Thomas and his six touches. :mad: I'd tell you how many points I lost, but CBS scoring is down again. :mad: :mad:

 

You all are correct, go with your gut.

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I always and only use FFToday experts advice, It wins me all my games!

 

(shameless ass kissing)

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Not sure this is the best thread for what I'm about to say, but this is sad funny. As a writer, I know it is easy to make mistakes like this, but :shocking:

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/49000/77/dose-chiefs-demolish-patriots

 

And it's time to start over again in Oakland. McKenzie will hopefully get the boot by season's end. He saddled Allen with over-the-hill and washed-up "talent" and no quarterback. That's a recipe for disaster. The NFL won't truly be right until the Raiders are good again. Look for owner Al Davis to shoot for the moon with his next coach.

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Chucky time in Oakland

 

I doubt that. The team is too much of a train wreck for him to walk away from his easy ride and big money TV spot.

 

I think it would take the Cowboys to tempt him, but that comes with the medling of Jerry Jones; so maybe not that either.

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