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Bills04

Check those forecasts, fellas

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I was doing some research on Friday, and saw a comment about WIND.

 

I then checked where my kicker was playing - JAX, @ CLE - and ugh... I grabbed SEA KCR off of the WW for both teams, and will go with him. I'm lucky, and have ATL QB for both teams. Also consider the wind for your QBs!

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Just when I'd decided that I would roll with 4 WRs and 2 RBs, I also saw a wind comment about CLE where my Marqise Lee will be playing. At the moment, I'm inclined to stick with the heavily-targeted Lee and sit Alex Collins against a tough GB run defense...although if there's wind in GB that could actually mean more carries for Collins (I choose to believe the coach-speak that Collins will remain the featured back despite Woodhead's and Watson's return).

 

But just 2-3 weeks ago, we had one of these wind scares that spooked some of our posters out of good starts. I got bit too as the one adjustment I made - a safe kicker for my wind kicker Matt Bryant - UNmaximized my point total.

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I would only worry about kickers.

I do not plan on benching Sheperd for someone like Lynch because of the wind.

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FWIW. wind doesn't typically affect playcalling--coaches historically don't call fewer pass plays due to wind. It might affect the deep passing game, but short passes don't get all that affected. A guy like Alex Smith won't be affected much dropping a 7 yd pass to Hill that turns into a 30 yard gain after the catch. Kickers will see some loss in production, mostly from teams not wanting to try longer kicks.

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I am thinking more about sliding Darkwa into the mix because of a run heavy script (more touches) based on weather. That and Eli sometimes plays like a piece of 💩

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I live in Cleveland forecast here at gametime is for light snow 15mph wind, not ideal but nothing to really worry about. Green bay forecast seems fine/non factor. NYG/KC game there is a wind advisory with 20-30mph winds at gametime. Eli is used to windy conditions in NJ, I think this might actually affect alex smith more who doesn't have an especially strong arm. I agree that kickers may be the most affected and if you have butker and there is a good kicker on the wire, there are worse ideas than grabbing him.

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I live in Cleveland forecast here at gametime is for light snow 15mph wind, not ideal but nothing to really worry about. Green bay forecast seems fine/non factor. NYG/KC game there is a wind advisory with 20-30mph winds at gametime. Eli is used to windy conditions in NJ, I think this might actually affect alex smith more who doesn't have an especially strong arm. I agree that kickers may be the most affected and if you have butker and there is a good kicker on the wire, there are worse ideas than grabbing him.

 

Alex Smith has plenty of arm strength. He played for years in systems that didn't encourage downfield throwing, and I think his lack of success generally worked its way into his playing, preferring short throws in the end, so he got a reputation. But he's got a perfectly fine arm. Check out these throws--you don't make those throws with a weak arm.

 

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Alex Smith has plenty of arm strength. He played for years in systems that didn't encourage downfield throwing, and I think his lack of success generally worked its way into his playing, preferring short throws in the end, so he got a reputation. But he's got a perfectly fine arm. Check out these throws--you don't make those throws with a weak arm.

 

Anyone who provides video evidence to make a point deserves recognition, I stand corrected.

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Anyone who provides video evidence to make a point deserves recognition, I stand corrected.

 

I've only been really paying attention to his deep ball myself after picking him up week 1 this year, but I've been surprised too.

 

I mean, the guy is honestly a fantastic athlete. He has wheels no one remembers anymore, but everyone talked about when he came out of college. He's really been screwed by so many coaching changes and bad teams over his career--including getting benched for Kap in the one year in SF when he finally had maybe started to put the pieces together. Smith was having a very good year, but when he got hurt, the coaches had a man crush on Kap (who in fairness was playing well at that time too) and I think still saw Smith as not great.

 

I'm happy for the guy that he's getting a chance to show what he can really do after all these years.

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I'm happy for the guy that he's getting a chance to show what he can really do after all these years.

He has been one of my favorites players for a while now. I don't think any other QB in the league could run that KC offense as well as he is doing now.

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He has been one of my favorites players for a while now. I don't think any other QB in the league could run that KC offense as well as he is doing now.

 

I mean a few. Brady/Rodgers/Brees, right? Guys who have the movement and smarts. But it's a pretty small class, I think, if you look at how they do run it. Smith is a smart player.

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Well, this news doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy since I own both Smith and Shepard.

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I mean a few. Brady/Rodgers/Brees, right? Guys who have the movement and smarts. But it's a pretty small class, I think, if you look at how they do run it. Smith is a smart player.

I don't know about Brady and Brees even. They don't move like Alex Smith. And that is needed on KC. I'm not saying Smith is better than them in the big picture at all, just for this current offense maybe.

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I don't know about Brady and Brees even. They don't move like Alex Smith. And that is needed on KC. I'm not saying Smith is better than them in the big picture at all, just for this current offense maybe.

 

Fair point. Brady and Brees have good pocket movement, but not the same running threat.

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Fair point. Brady and Brees have good pocket movement, but not the same running threat.

I like that he doesn't use running as a plan but as an out. Not tons of rushing yards, just important ones. Not to mentioned he has only 1 fumble lost an 1 interception on the year after 9 games.

 

He is an MVP candidate at this point but doesn't have the gaudy numbers probably that would get him there. To me, with Hill, Hunt, Kelce, and Smith, they have the single most fun offense to watch this year in football. God knows I need something to watch being a Bears fan...

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I like that he doesn't use running as a plan but as an out. Not tons of rushing yards, just important ones. Not to mentioned he has only 1 fumble lost an 1 interception on the year after 9 games.

 

He is an MVP candidate at this point but doesn't have the gaudy numbers probably that would get him there. To me, with Hill, Hunt, Kelce, and Smith, they have the single most fun offense to watch this year in football. God knows I need something to watch being a Bears fan...

 

I kept Kelce in my keeper league, nabbed Hunt the Sat after Ware went down, and then stumbled into Smith in week 1 out of free agency when I got hurricaned. Through no real planning, I became heavily invested in the Chiefs, and I've enjoyed watching their games too.

 

It's really a bit surprising now to remember that no one in a 12 teamer even drafted Smith.

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They say it's going to be about 60 here in Reno Nevada tomorrow so I'm not worried.

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...although if there's wind in GB that could actually mean more carries for Collins (I choose to believe the coach-speak that Collins will remain the featured back despite Woodhead's and Watson's return).

 

 

 

Apologies...."Watson" should have read "West".

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Anyone who provides video evidence to make a point deserves recognition, I stand corrected.

 

And now in hindsight...foooooock. Maybe it was the wind. :mad:

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And now in hindsight...foooooock. Maybe it was the wind. :mad:

Did you see the game? I watched every play. It was the wind and the coaching. The wind was really bad on passes to the south endzone.

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Will it didn't reach 60 today.

 

But we did reach 54, still wasn't a bother.

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Alex Smith has plenty of arm strength. He played for years in systems that didn't encourage downfield throwing, and I think his lack of success generally worked its way into his playing, preferring short throws in the end, so he got a reputation. But he's got a perfectly fine arm. Check out these throws--you don't make those throws with a weak arm.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0mJZB2v

Look at the distance on those throws, 40 yards, 50yards max ?, I threw 55 yards in High School. His arm is weak for NFL QBs. When the wind is swirling, the playbook is shrunk even further compared to Rodgers/Flacco type arms.

Faster footballs can cut through the wind and be less affected, a slower ball from a weaker arm is gonna be taken by the wind.

Did you see some of his bad throws in that game ?

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Look at the distance on those throws, 40 yards, 50yards max ?, I threw 55 yards in High School. His arm is weak for NFL QBs. When the wind is swirling, the playbook is shrunk even further compared to Rodgers/Flacco type arms.

Faster footballs can cut through the wind and be less affected, a slower ball from a weaker arm is gonna be taken by the wind.

Did you see some of his bad throws in that game ?

Uncle Rico :)

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Going to be 70'here on thanksgiving.

 

No problems.

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in general, strong armed QB's tend to do okay in the wind.

 

it's the weaker armed QB that relies on finesse throws that has a harder time in the wind.

 

guys like Doug Flutie and Peyton Manning (late in his career when his arm strength faded)

 

I agree it's more of a factor for Kickers, but definitely keep it in mind for some QB's.

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Look at the distance on those throws, 40 yards, 50yards max ?, I threw 55 yards in High School. His arm is weak for NFL QBs. When the wind is swirling, the playbook is shrunk even further compared to Rodgers/Flacco type arms.

Faster footballs can cut through the wind and be less affected, a slower ball from a weaker arm is gonna be taken by the wind.

Did you see some of his bad throws in that game ?

Then get some video on some qbs that are consistently completing 65-70 yard passes down field and I will agree. Not just a couple hail marys.

 

It doesnt matter that at your max you were able to throw it 50 yards (not into any wind). These guys have professional defenses rushing against them every play. Smith's arm strength is fine. Even Favre's passes into 40 mph wind gusts were knocked down. I was out in that wind and it was rough.

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I don't put much emphasis on weather, but if I see a forcast of 20+ mph winds then I pay attention. I had a lot of DFS lineups with Sterling Shepard, Tyreek Hill and Marquis Lee last week. I replaced all of them. In some lineups, I used Keenan Allen instead. That worked out really well. Also, used Landry of Miami who did ok too.

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Going to be 70'here on thanksgiving.

 

No problems.

You set your thermostat to 70? I prefer mine around 72 except at night.

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Actually we made it up too 71 today.

 

No problems.

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Then get some video on some qbs that are consistently completing 65-70 yard passes down field and I will agree. Not just a couple hail marys.

 

It doesnt matter that at your max you were able to throw it 50 yards (not into any wind). These guys have professional defenses rushing against them every play. Smith's arm strength is fine. Even Favre's passes into 40 mph wind gusts were knocked down. I was out in that wind and it was rough.

YES, and a weak armed QB has a tougher time cause his velocity is Lower versus a guy like Flacco who can fire a fastball that's moving faster than the wind speed.

 

Yes, he's fine for an NFL QB, but he's sucks on windy days and deeper routes with tight windows, he can't make that pass with slow balls that take too long to get there, period.

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Sixty plus right here in Reno.

 

No problems, Thank you Jesus.

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