Santana Moss with McNabb at the helm?

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Houston Texans,

 

1. there is also a difference between YPC and YAC which is a factor in determining deep ball success. im not knocking you, so relax.. im just saying the number your originally listed cant really be used in a debate on McNabbs long ball prowess. Youd need to dig deeper.

 

Why do I need to dig deeper? No offense, but you've said "McNabb throws a better deep ball than Campbell," (or something to that effect) but haven't really proven that assertion.

 

Also, you yourself have stated that the 'Skins offense wasn't that good. I agree. Campbell wasn't afforded the opportunity to throw deep much. That doesn't mean he couldn't. Perhaps Shanahan will allow McNabb to go deep more often, like Reid did. That doesn't mean he's got a better, accurate deep ball, just that his offense(s) allowed him to throw it.

 

Im saying McNabb throws a better deep ball from having watched each guy play a fair amount. McNabb throws a nicer deep ball than Campbell. Perhaps it would be fair to cut Campbell a little slack due to the offensive system in Washington but since that system is gone, I will assume McNabb throws just as nice a deep ball with Shanny calling the shots.

 

My mian point was that simple showing basic statistics doesn't prove or disprove a QB's deep ball accuracy. I know your first point was regarding McNabbs influence on mediocre WR's but you also tried to make a point about his deep ball.

 

 

2. Last year was close to his average but he has had better seasons is my point. Hes had 6+ td seasons before. 1000 yard seasons, 75+ catch seasons. Point is, he is capable of better than 2009. 3 TD's is a down year.

 

I never said he's not capable of it, however, it's important to note that his average was skewed upward by his monster first year with Was. That's the only other time he's put up big yardage numbers. Also, while 3 TDs is a down year, 6 TDs is a big year for him, so expecting more than that might not be wise.

 

If I were a Moss owner I would be expecting 75-1100-6. Or something close to that. None of those are carrer highs but all are numbers he has achieved multiple times over his 9 seasons.

 

3. In PPR formats in 2009, Moss was high to mid #3... i don't see him doing any worse in 2010 with a better QB and coaching.

 

High to mid-3 is hardly top-10, 1op-15, or top-20, which as I've repeatedly said is unlikely, and that's what the OP asked.

 

Just so we are clear when i say high number 3 I mean a top end number 3. High to mid #3 had him ranked 28th I believe in 2009. Which really isn't far off from being a top 20 WR when you consider he had a down year in TD's and failed to reach 1000 yards receiving. If McNabb gets him a few more scores and enough yards to break 1000, he is likely a top 20 WR.

 

i guess its an interesting debate. my main thing though is that I see no way Moss doesn't improve upon 2009 numbers with McNabb and Shanny in town. And improved numbers probably makes him a number 2 fantasy WR who can be had at a low 3 or 4 pricetag. His ADP is mid 7th round at the moment.

[Houston Texans 10]

 

1. there is also a difference between YPC and YAC which is a factor in determining deep ball success. im not knocking you, so relax.. im just saying the number your originally listed cant really be used in a debate on McNabbs long ball prowess. Youd need to dig deeper.

 

Why do I need to dig deeper? No offense, but you've said "McNabb throws a better deep ball than Campbell," (or something to that effect) but haven't really proven that assertion.

 

Also, you yourself have stated that the 'Skins offense wasn't that good. I agree. Campbell wasn't afforded the opportunity to throw deep much. That doesn't mean he couldn't. Perhaps Shanahan will allow McNabb to go deep more often, like Reid did. That doesn't mean he's got a better, accurate deep ball, just that his offense(s) allowed him to throw it.

Im saying McNabb throws a better deep ball from having watched each guy play a fair amount. McNabb throws a nicer deep ball than Campbell. Perhaps it would be fair to cut Campbell a little slack due to the offensive system in Washington but since that system is gone, I will assume McNabb throws just as nice a deep ball with Shanny calling the shots.

 

So, based on games you watched, you think McNabb throws a better deep ball. In other words, that's your opinion. That doesn't make it true (it doesn't make it false, either, but without something to substantiate it, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt, IMO).

 

My mian point was that simple showing basic statistics doesn't prove or disprove a QB's deep ball accuracy. I know your first point was regarding McNabbs influence on mediocre WR's but you also tried to make a point about his deep ball.

I know stats aren't able to prove or disprove everything. However, to support or challenge an opinion, you need more than just those opinions. My opinion is that Campbell doesn't throw as bad a deep ball as many people (including you, I would have to assume) think. Here's some stats to support that:

 

In 2009, McNabb completed 33 passes of 25+ yards. Campbell completed just 7 fewer, 26.

LINK> Big Play stats

When you take into account the offenses they were playing under, that's an interesting stat. Reid's offense is a pass-happy offense, that tries to stretch the field and throw the ball downfield, so one would expect McNabb to have a lot more long completions than Campbell, who was hampered by Zorn's short-pass, WCO-style offense, wouldn't you?

 

Also, in 2009, 3 Philly players were in the top 20 of NFC players for YAC: McCoy (397 YAC), Jackson (394 YAC), and Celek (389 YAC). Only one 'Skin player was in the top 20: Sa Moss (376 YAC).

LINK> NFC top 20 YAC

McNabb's YPA was 8.0 in 2009, and Campbell's was 7.1, but we know that McNabb was the beneficiary of AT LEAST 1180 YAC. So a part of McNabb's higher YPA can be attributed to his receivers' ability to run after the caught the pass, and not on McNabb's arm strength or accuracy, can't it?

 

 

2. Last year was close to his average but he has had better seasons is my point. Hes had 6+ td seasons before. 1000 yard seasons, 75+ catch seasons. Point is, he is capable of better than 2009. 3 TD's is a down year.

 

I never said he's not capable of it, however, it's important to note that his average was skewed upward by his monster first year with Was. That's the only other time he's put up big yardage numbers. Also, while 3 TDs is a down year, 6 TDs is a big year for him, so expecting more than that might not be wise.

 

If I were a Moss owner I would be expecting 75-1100-6. Or something close to that. None of those are carrer highs but all are numbers he has achieved multiple times over his 9 seasons.

 

It's true he's achieved 1100 yards "multiple times" (TWICE in 9 years), and yes it's true that he achieved at least 6 TDs "multiple" times (but it would be more accurate to say he's had more seasons with less than 6 TDs <5>, than he's had 6 or more <4>). As a 'Skins fan, I'd love to see those numbers, but I think it's foolish to expect them.

 

3. In PPR formats in 2009, Moss was high to mid #3... i don't see him doing any worse in 2010 with a better QB and coaching.

 

High to mid-3 is hardly top-10, 1op-15, or top-20, which as I've repeatedly said is unlikely, and that's what the OP asked.

 

Just so we are clear when i say high number 3 I mean a top end number 3. High to mid #3 had him ranked 28th I believe in 2009. Which really isn't far off from being a top 20 WR when you consider he had a down year in TD's and failed to reach 1000 yards receiving. If McNabb gets him a few more scores and enough yards to break 1000, he is likely a top 20 WR.

 

He was actually tied for 27th, but he was 34 points behind the #20 WR. He was closer to being the #37 WR, which would have prevented him from even being a viable WR3. And, I'll repeat, he usually FAILS to break 1000 yard receiving, he's only done it 3 times, out of 9 seasons. So give him a few more scores, 12-18 more points still wouldn't have made him a top-20 WR (in PPR), although if he had exceeded his career average and caught 6 TDs, he would have been a WR2 (BARELY).

 

i guess its an interesting debate. my main thing though is that I see no way Moss doesn't improve upon 2009 numbers with McNabb and Shanny in town. And improved numbers probably makes him a number 2 fantasy WR who can be had at a low 3 or 4 pricetag. His ADP is mid 7th round at the moment.

 

I understand what you are saying, but my point is that Moss' season last year wasn't actually a bad year for him. If he had caught 2 more TD passes, he'd have exceed his career averages AND still wouldn't have been a WR2 (in PPR). McNabb isn't that much better than Campbell, IMO. I will admit, however that IF McNabb picks up the offense quickly, and IF Shanahan passes more than Zorn did, and IF Moss, at age 31 has one of his best seasons, then Moss could put up WR2 numbers.