Where to Rank Brandin Cooks

[Kent 228]

I'm starting my first rankings lists and am finding Cooks ranked as the 5th or 6th WR.

 

Am I falling for the Randy Moss trap and assuming a stud WR is going to go nuts with Tom Brady. It's so tough to figure Pats WRs but I just can't seem to rank him anywhere else. Thoughts?

[cousinal111 57]

I'm trying to avoid him. Keep in mind, Randy Moss was one of the greatest WR's in NFL history. If he slides, that's one thing but his current ADP is too high in my opinion.

[weepaws 2,451]

Sounds about right to me.

 

I have him at number eight.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

Two very different skill sets. Randy Moss was 6' 4" and a TD machine. Brady would just let him go get the ball in the redzone. Cooks is a big play threat, but in the red zone, Gronk and the backs will still be the primary targets (when healthy). You could talk me into Cooks being an early/mid teens receiver, but there are a few more proven guys I'd rather have at 5th or 6th.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

I can see Cooks finishing the season anywhere between #1 and #10. To rank him at #7 (or so), would be quite reasonable.

[cousinal111 57]

I've seen him as low as WR20 in PPR, amongst Jarvis Landry & Golden Tate.

[weepaws 2,451]

What a blessing for Cooks, he had to tough It out with Bress and now he inherits Brady.

 

Tough road.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

I've seen him as low as WR20 in PPR, amongst Jarvis Landry & Golden Tate.

 

Last year, Terrelle Pryor (in PPR leagues), finished with 77 receptions, 1,007 yards, and 4 TD's. To me, that's a floor for Cooks. Last year he had 78 / 1173 / 8. I don't see him dropping that low. He was right around #10... I think he'll be slightly better than that. I'm expecting somewhere around 90 / 1250 / 10... based on last years #'s, that would have put him at #5.

[cousinal111 57]

I'm just sharing what I saw in Evan Silva's latest rankings.

 

32. Terrelle Pryor

33. Davante Adams

34. Golden Tate

35. Brandin Cooks (WR20) Better best-ball & DFS tournament than re-draft-league investment.

36. Jarvis Landry

37. Stefon Diggs

38. Keenan Allen

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/73050/57/silvas-july-top-150

[Kent 228]

I'm just sharing what I saw in Evan Silva's latest rankings.

 

32. Terrelle Pryor

33. Davante Adams

34. Golden Tate

35. Brandin Cooks (WR20) Better best-ball & DFS tournament than re-draft-league investment.

36. Jarvis Landry

37. Stefon Diggs

38. Keenan Allen

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/73050/57/silvas-july-top-150

Interesting. Hope they all rank him that poorly. Feels like he's got steal written all over him right now.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

Interesting. Hope they all rank him that poorly. Feels like he's got steal written all over him right now.

Yup.

[delchay 6]

He is going to drive owners crazy this year. He will have a huge game then vanish in production the following week.

[polecatt 399]

He is going to drive owners crazy this year. He will have a huge game then vanish in production the following week.

That's what he does

[polecatt 399]

He's a solid WR2 and that will be about what he is this season

He makes the rare move to the Patriots where his situation is not upgraded

Brees is more or less equal to Brady and NO is one of the best passing offenses in the NFL

Kind of like with the Patriots too, the Saints spread the ball around and can be a bit unpredictable in how players get touches

I really see more of the same, 2 or 3 monster games, 2 or 3 total duds, and the rest will be servicable

[Kent 228]

He is going to drive owners crazy this year. He will have a huge game then vanish in production the following week.

You just described the WR position in general though. .

[weepaws 2,451]

I see a wr1 like last season.

 

I can't believe he's ranked 35 on that listed posted above.

 

I hope it stays that way.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

A couple things I need to disagree with here

 

I do not care how much logic someone can create to show Cooks is probably going to be a WR2/3. His upside is so high, he is worth the WR1 price.

 

His situation is most certainly upgraded. One reason, Sean Peyton isn't a very good coach. Having one of the best QBs of all time, the Saints have become a middling team that does not make the playoffs. That just should NOT happen with Drew Brees as the QB. I don't know why Peyton hasn't been fired yet.

 

Then we get to Peyton's baffling use of Cooks. Or maybe it's a combination of him and Brees, Cooks was flat out ignored for multiple games in a row. Why, why on Earth would they ignore their best offensive player after Brees? Being a constant decoy is not the way to use a teams best weapon. Plus, Cooks isn't just a deep guy. He is a receiver who i have seen have success all over the field.

 

There is a reason the Patriots traded their 1st round pick for Cooks. We probably all know by now that Belichik spent many summers watching Cooks tear apart his defense, and that's with Malcom Butler on the roster. Edelman is a nice possession guy, but he isn't near as dynamic as Cooks. Cooks can do a lot of the same things and more. He is due for a contract here soon. Do you think Cooks is going to just be used as a decoy and get his shot at a free agent contract screwed up? I just don't see anything in this situation that points to Cooks having a smaller work load. If someone is your best player on offense, you get him the ball as much as possible. I believe Belichik knows that

[Kent 228]

A couple things I need to disagree with here

 

I do not care how much logic someone can create to show Cooks is probably going to be a WR2/3. His upside is so high, he is worth the WR1 price.

 

His situation is most certainly upgraded. One reason, Sean Peyton isn't a very good coach. Having one of the best QBs of all time, the Saints have become a middling team that does not make the playoffs. That just should NOT happen with Drew Brees as the QB. I don't know why Peyton hasn't been fired yet.

 

Then we get to Peyton's baffling use of Cooks. Or maybe it's a combination of him and Brees, Cooks was flat out ignored for multiple games in a row. Why, why on Earth would they ignore their best offensive player after Brees? Being a constant decoy is not the way to use a teams best weapon. Plus, Cooks isn't just a deep guy. He is a receiver who i have seen have success all over the field.

 

There is a reason the Patriots traded their 1st round pick for Cooks. We probably all know by now that Belichik spent many summers watching Cooks tear apart his defense, and that's with Malcom Butler on the roster. Edelman is a nice possession guy, but he isn't near as dynamic as Cooks. Cooks can do a lot of the same things and more. He is due for a contract here soon. Do you think Cooks is going to just be used as a decoy and get his shot at a free agent contract screwed up? I just don't see anything in this situation that points to Cooks having a smaller work load. If someone is your best player on offense, you get him the ball as much as possible. I believe Belichik knows that

Very good post.

 

I see Gronk being the main target and Cooks being number 2. Edelman is the guy I'd be worried about at his current ADP. He's really risky now. Arguably DND with that risk.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I can easily see top 10. Don't hold your breath on tds but the yards should be there.

[Ray_T 587]

Very good post.

 

I see Gronk being the main target and Cooks being number 2. Edelman is the guy I'd be worried about at his current ADP. He's really risky now. Arguably DND with that risk.

hard to say.

 

perhaps someone should put together some scenarios breaking down Brady's passing yards to see where they are likely to go.

 

a reasonable breakdown (doesnt need to be exact) should give us a clue as to where these guys should end up.

 

I"m guessing cooks and Edelman will both be solid WR2's. but it's tough to say for sure at this point.

[IGotWorms 3,297]

I think ranking him in the top 5-8 WRs is reasonable. If he's getting ranked well below that then he's a focking steal

[Kent 228]

hard to say.

 

perhaps someone should put together some scenarios breaking down Brady's passing yards to see where they are likely to go.

 

a reasonable breakdown (doesnt need to be exact) should give us a clue as to where these guys should end up.

 

I"m guessing cooks and Edelman will both be solid WR2's. but it's tough to say for sure at this point.

In terms of Edelman, I just consider his ADP riskier. Cooks is a legit WR with superstar ceiling. They haven't had that in a long time. If Cooks is hot out of the gate Edelman is going to be a bust at his ADP.

 

Once again the issue is so many mouths to feed. That's what worries me most. Hogan is still there. Is he now sidelined and seeing spot duty? Who is losing snaps? This is one situation that I will try to follow most heading up to the draft. Any and all help always welcome.

[weepaws 2,451]

He's a wr1 and I feel comfortable with it.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I can see Cooks being a locked in WR 1 and being a huge hit as one of the top scorers in the league.

 

I can also see Malcolm Mitchell catching more passes than him.

 

I think there is a huge variation. I personally won't own many redraft shares.

[weepaws 2,451]

Cooks is one of the players on the radar when you think about picking a stud Rb in the first round.

 

He's going to be another stud wr available in round two.

[Ray_T 587]

I'm starting my first rankings lists and am finding Cooks ranked as the 5th or 6th WR.

 

Am I falling for the Randy Moss trap and assuming a stud WR is going to go nuts with Tom Brady. It's so tough to figure Pats WRs but I just can't seem to rank him anywhere else. Thoughts?

I have found that WR's don't put up big numbers in the pats Offense in year 1 very often.

 

I think Brady and Belichek like their WR's to know the playbook inside and out and it takes a bit more time for them to be productive. The pats also still have to feed Edelman and Gronk, so they dont have to use him heavily if he is still learning parts of the playbook.

 

I wouldnt totally discount him as he is a huge talent, but I dont know that I'd wanna take him as the 5th WR off the board either.

 

This is one of those players I've taken a wait and see approach on. I have not done a full blown analysis on WR yet, but My guess is he will be somewhere between #8 and #15 on my WR rankings list.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I have found that WR's don't put up big numbers in the pats Offense in year 1 very often.

 

I think Brady and Belichek like their WR's to know the playbook inside and out and it takes a bit more time for them to be productive. The pats also still have to feed Edelman and Gronk, so they dont have to use him heavily if he is still learning parts of the playbook.

 

I wouldnt totally discount him as he is a huge talent, but I dont know that I'd wanna take him as the 5th WR off the board either.

 

This is one of those players I've taken a wait and see approach on. I have not done a full blown analysis on WR yet, but My guess is he will be somewhere between #8 and #15 on my WR rankings list.

They don't HAVE to feed Edelman. Cooks is much more dynamic, which I would assume means he gets more production than Edelman per touch.

[Ray_T 587]

They don't HAVE to feed Edelman. Cooks is much more dynamic, which I would assume means he gets more production than Edelman per touch.

Quite possible.

 

but in terms of the way I do my rankings, I'll have him ranked lower today.

 

Most likely as we get closer to the start of the season, I'll move him up the rankings if the reports suggest he has some chemistry with Brady. But right now, (until I get more info on how he will fit into this offense) I think how he fits in is a big unknown and that would be an element of risk in the estimate of his value. I need to do something to account for that risk.

 

as the training camp progresses I will have a better idea of what risk there is with him here (or indeed, if there is any risk at all) and he will likely move up my board as we get closer to the start of the season.

 

It may well be that my ranking of him will eventually be close to yours, but the way we get there may well be different. That doesnt make my methodology better or worse than yours. it's just a different.

 

Today's ranking is based on those risks which are currently unknown and would reflect where I value him if I went into a draft tomorrow.

 

My eventual end ranking reflects where he would be at after a long camp and 3 (or 4) exhibition games. a lot can happen in that time to make me more comfortable with the situation.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

He'll need to produce at Edelman's floor, and retain his big game potential to return that value. Call me skeptical. I just don't see how his situation really got any better. His team won't be playing from behind much, won't be throwing a lot in the fourth quarter, uses a lot of backs in the passing game, Edleman isn't dead with Cooks there (as some seem to believe), and I don't see his TD numbers increasing much. Essentially, there are too many mouths to feed in that offense, and nothing really improved scheme wise to make me think this raises his floor. I admit I can see myself being wrong on this, because he does have talent and is in NE, but until someone gives me a reason why his floor changes in NE, I'll be really hesitant to draft him as a true WR 1. He's still a rich mans Kenny Stills in my opinion. I don't mind my WR 3 being boom or bust, but I want more consistency out of my WR 1.

[redsrback 30]

A couple things I need to disagree with here

 

I do not care how much logic someone can create to show Cooks is probably going to be a WR2/3. His upside is so high, he is worth the WR1 price.

 

His situation is most certainly upgraded. One reason, Sean Peyton isn't a very good coach. Having one of the best QBs of all time, the Saints have become a middling team that does not make the playoffs. That just should NOT happen with Drew Brees as the QB. I don't know why Peyton hasn't been fired yet.

 

Then we get to Peyton's baffling use of Cooks. Or maybe it's a combination of him and Brees, Cooks was flat out ignored for multiple games in a row. Why, why on Earth would they ignore their best offensive player after Brees? Being a constant decoy is not the way to use a teams best weapon. Plus, Cooks isn't just a deep guy. He is a receiver who i have seen have success all over the field.

 

There is a reason the Patriots traded their 1st round pick for Cooks. We probably all know by now that Belichik spent many summers watching Cooks tear apart his defense, and that's with Malcom Butler on the roster. Edelman is a nice possession guy, but he isn't near as dynamic as Cooks. Cooks can do a lot of the same things and more. He is due for a contract here soon. Do you think Cooks is going to just be used as a decoy and get his shot at a free agent contract screwed up? I just don't see anything in this situation that points to Cooks having a smaller work load. If someone is your best player on offense, you get him the ball as much as possible. I believe Belichik knows that

Sean Peytons coaching skills are like Belicheks, there defense has been 1 of the worst for years. Good Luck predicting Cooks and be prepared to be frustrated, you all just don't learn when it comes to the Patriots.

[Ray_T 587]

He'll need to produce at Edelman's floor, and retain his big game potential to return that value. Call me skeptical. I just don't see how his situation really got any better. His team won't be playing from behind much, won't be throwing a lot in the fourth quarter, uses a lot of backs in the passing game, Edleman isn't dead with Cooks there (as some seem to believe), and I don't see his TD numbers increasing much. Essentially, there are too many mouths to feed in that offense, and nothing really improved scheme wise to make me think this raises his floor. I admit I can see myself being wrong on this, because he does have talent and is in NE, but until someone gives me a reason why his floor changes in NE, I'll be really hesitant to draft him as a true WR 1. He's still a rich mans Kenny Stills in my opinion. I don't mind my WR 3 being boom or bust, but I want more consistency out of my WR 1.

Yes, and you have to also remember, Brees may be one of the only NFL QB's whose numbers over the course of his career are as good or better than Brady's.

 

If you are increasing the projection based on the new QB, you have to remember the old QB was (in my opinion) just as good, so I wouldnt expect a larger boost to his numbers other than any increase associated with him improving as a player. While I do think he will improve, I think it will be more of a gradual thing over the course of the season.

 

in standard leagues, to be top 5 he needs to get 190-200 fantasy points over the course of the year.

 

His career high is 170 in standard leagues.

 

so he needs to do 15% better than his career best to achieve this result.

 

I think that's a tall order. While not impossible, I would say it is rather improbable.

 

FFtoday has him projected at 918 yards and 7 TD. I figure he will do a bit better than that. Probably between 1000 and 1100 yards and 7-10 TD

 

If he gets 1100 yards and 10 TD he will get 170 fantasy points. This would be on par with his best career season and would rank him #7 on FFtoday's projected best receivers list.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

He'll need to produce at Edelman's floor, and retain his big game potential to return that value. Call me skeptical. I just don't see how his situation really got any better. His team won't be playing from behind much, won't be throwing a lot in the fourth quarter, uses a lot of backs in the passing game, Edleman isn't dead with Cooks there (as some seem to believe), and I don't see his TD numbers increasing much. Essentially, there are too many mouths to feed in that offense, and nothing really improved scheme wise to make me think this raises his floor. I admit I can see myself being wrong on this, because he does have talent and is in NE, but until someone gives me a reason why his floor changes in NE, I'll be really hesitant to draft him as a true WR 1. He's still a rich mans Kenny Stills in my opinion. I don't mind my WR 3 being boom or bust, but I want more consistency out of my WR 1.

 

While I don't think your rationale is incorrect, I don't think things will happen that way. The Saints wanted to move on from Cooks... why, I don't, but I know they did. The Patriots most likely didn't have to give up a first and third to get him. You don't give up those two picks... plus exercise his ($8M), option (before he even reported to OTA's), just to make him a generic piece in the puzzle. I think Cooks gets 8+ targets per game.

[weepaws 2,451]

Great points TB.

 

I would agree with everything you posted.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Quite possible.

 

but in terms of the way I do my rankings, I'll have him ranked lower today.

 

Most likely as we get closer to the start of the season, I'll move him up the rankings if the reports suggest he has some chemistry with Brady. But right now, (until I get more info on how he will fit into this offense) I think how he fits in is a big unknown and that would be an element of risk in the estimate of his value. I need to do something to account for that risk.

 

as the training camp progresses I will have a better idea of what risk there is with him here (or indeed, if there is any risk at all) and he will likely move up my board as we get closer to the start of the season.

 

It may well be that my ranking of him will eventually be close to yours, but the way we get there may well be different. That doesnt make my methodology better or worse than yours. it's just a different.

 

Today's ranking is based on those risks which are currently unknown and would reflect where I value him if I went into a draft tomorrow.

 

My eventual end ranking reflects where he would be at after a long camp and 3 (or 4) exhibition games. a lot can happen in that time to make me more comfortable with the situation.

I trust Belichik to do what's best for the team. If Cooks per touch output exceeds all other players, I don't see any reason to not use him often. If this was a different team, say the Saints, then yeah it would not matter at all what his production per touch would be. He would not get an exceptional amount of work. Bill is smart, more production means more points. Simple.

[ralphster 274]

Count me in the minority, but I think Cooks will be LESS boom/bust than last year. BB has a shiny new toy w elite speed/route running and will scheme to get him the ball.

 

8-10 targets, 4-6 catches, 60-100+ yards, .75 tds per game. The only slight I'd put on him is my belief that the pats are gonna steamroll most of the teams they play, salting away W's with their running games.

 

They've ruthlessly run up scores before though, but they didn't sign all those rbs for no reason.

 

If you can get him at his current adp of 3.01 or later (ideally as a wr2) then you've landed a gem imo.

[Kent 228]

Didn't Cooks have a game with zero targets in New Orleans?

 

I'm not sure they used him properly. I see a different story in New England given what they invested.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Didn't Cooks have a game with zero targets in New Orleans?

 

I'm not sure they used him properly. I see a different story in New England given what they invested.

Yep. And he had a game with 1 catch, when he wasn't injured. Sean Peyton is way overrated. Brees is a little to blame too

[IMMensaMind 459]

I see him as WR11, and with 6 games that make up too large a portion of that endshare to justify drafting him at his ADP.

 

I would far rather invest in the risk of the NE running game this year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Make of this what you will.

 

2015 Home Stats

 

44 638 6 (13 20+ yard catches) Average Per Catch 14.5

 

2015 Away Stats

 

40 500 3 (5 20+ yard catches) Average Per Catch 12.5

 

 

2016 Home Stats

 

34 642 5 (10 20+ yard catches) Average Per Catch 18.9

 

2016 Away Stats

 

44 531 3 (5 20+ yard catches) Average Per Catch 12.1

 

 

 

The Saints road games were in Atlanta, Tampa and Carolina.

 

The Pats play in Foxboro and travel to Buffalo, NY and Miami.

[weepaws 2,451]

More to do with the Saints not being a good road team.

 

Look at Brees numbers.

 

2015 on the road he had 2017 yards passing and 9 tds, and in 2016 he had 2440 passing yards with 17 tds.

 

2015 at home he had 2861 yard and 22 tds, in 2016 he had 2767 yard and 20 tds.

 

I'm sure that has a lot to do with Cooks road and home numbers.