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Does anyone win with RB's anymore?

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Serious question. Do you build your team around stud RB's or WR's? I know the game has changed, and the strategies are different between redraft, keeper and dynasty..... Years ago, I always drafted RB/RB in the first two rounds. Now I prefer WR/WR, unless there is a run on WR's in round one and a top guys falls down the board.

 

I'm asking specifically because I took Elliott in the rookie draft in my dynasty league and have had some pretty solid offers for young WR's. I am already ok at RB in that league, and it's a horrible experience trying to get decent WR's as people hoard them....

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The shift I've noticed is that wide receivers are now taking the first round by storm, and the seemingly 1st rounders from yesteryear are slipping into the early-mid 1st. Guys like Devonta Freeman and/or Lamar Miller can be paired with an Allen Robinson this year.

 

I think there's a bevy of reasons why that's happening though: Injuries are less frequent at the premier WR spots, running backs as a plurality are getting fewer carries, RBBC, PPR and the new rules in place in the NFL, and cost-effectiveness of the position from top to bottom.

 

Guys like Chris Ivory, Frank Gore, and Wendell Smallwood could be had in the double-digit rounds at the time of this posting, but could ultimately end up being the leading producer from a fantasy sense in their respective backfield. Charles Sims has an ADP right now of 115.70. In PPR leagues Sims finished the season as the 16th highest scoring RB and averaged more PPG than Gio Bernard, TJ Yeldon, and Eddie Lacy.

 

There's just so much volatility at RB right now that unless you can guarantee yourself of a stud RB that's going to finish at or near his respective draft position, it's a massive gamble. And in the event you do draft a RB in the top 5, or 10, you still could be behind the eight-ball if someone that goes zero-RB gets two guys that outperform a majority at the position.

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With Lynch gone the amount of true, workhorse RBs has gone down. There just aren't that many RBs that are going to have an offense built around them anymore. With all of the RBBC unless you get one of the few remaining RBs that average 15-20 carries a game it's much better to go with receivers your first couple of rounds. Or even grab Gronk in it.

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There is no specific position that wins for you. A winning team must have players perform well and consistently at many positions.

Last season was a horrible one overall for RBs. The top RB, Freeman, was a mid to low end RB1 most seasons. Just look at the season before though, DeMarco Murray was up there with the top WRs. Look at the guys who suffered major injury last season though, Leveon Bell, Arian Foster, and Jamaal Charles. Those were all 3 top overall RB candidates. I know RBs can drop like flies but I expect a little better luck this season. I also expect RB to be a little deeper. Throw in Zeke if he's a top5 RB like expected.

It is a bit of a down time for RBs but they will bounce back. You still need 2 of them to play and they can score a lot.

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Last season was a horrible one overall for RBs. The top RB, Freeman, was a mid to low end RB1 most seasons. Just look at the season before though, DeMarco Murray was up there with the top WRs. Look at the guys who suffered major injury last season though, Leveon Bell, Arian Foster, and Jamaal Charles. Those were all 3 top overall RB candidates.

 

Devonta Freeman in PPR leagues would've been the #4 RB in 2014 AND 2013.

 

Peterson and Woodhead would've finished #7 and #8 respectively in 2013 and #7 and #9 respectively in 2014.

 

Yeah there was a slight dropoff last season among the TOP running backs, but look at the points for the RB2/3 last year compared to recent years. Their median score was actually a slight bit higher by and large.

 

As it pertains to Arian Foster though, I dunno when you were drafting, but in my drafts at the end of August, he was being selected in the 7th-9th rounds. I don't think anyone was banking on top-3 given his recovery from injury and the projection he'd miss multiple games in the beginning of the year.

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No way would I draft rb/rb which was the custom .

 

Just to much risk .

 

On how I would draft it's either wr/wr or a wr / rb or rb / wr just depends on how the draft comes to me .

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I still find it funny a lot of people were drafting Luck in the first round as the one they knew would live up to his draft position.

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I won with good RBS last year but it was truly a balanced team built with 2 keepers and good success in the middle rounds and free agency. I think you need good running back play to win but that doesn't mean you need good RBs.

 

My EOS roster was

 

Cousins

A Rob

AJ Green

LANDRY

C. Ivory

D. Johnson

D. Williams

M. Jones

L. Murray

Gronk

 

 

I'll start this season with Freeman, D. Johnson, and M. Jones (although considering trading him for D. Parker and a pick).

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I still find it funny a lot of people were drafting Luck in the first round as the one they knew would live up to his draft position.

Yep, the theory was you knowingly sacrificed value in exchange for a surefire, no doubt about it, stone cold lock top 2 guy at QB, therefore bust proofing rnd 1. Its a great theory actually and one that I like since pretty much every year my 1st round pick busts regardless of safety or position. But of course it blows up in everyones faces.

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This is all just part of an evolution. The CFL (due to the wider field and only 3 downs) moved almost exclusively to being a passing league. Then something happened....

 

With all defensive players geared up to stop the pass, teams started running the ball again and with much more success. Defenses actually got smaller and quicker (to deal with the pass) and then when offenses started running the ball again, the pendulum started to swing the other way.

 

I think the Seahawks have shown that a power run game can still get it done and I think it's just a matter of time until things change again.

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The run game is built on toughness and physical play , and that's exactly what the NFL wants to move away from .

 

I think it's going to get even more wide open , just look at the changes to make the passing game more successful.

 

It's going to be flag football soon enough .

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The run game is built on toughness and physical play , and that's exactly what the NFL wants to move away from .

 

I think it's going to get even more wide open , just look at the changes to make the passing game more successful.

 

It's going to be flag football soon enough .

You may be right. But I doubt that the Run game will completely disappear. It will become less of a factor, but wont disappear entirely.

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The NFL is cyclical and you will see the running game be dominate again. Sooner than later I believe. Just look at what won the SB, a dominate defense with a solid running game. I really think we're going to see offenses trying to pound the ball more and rely on a stout defense again. Like it was said earlier, when defenses get more and more adapted to the pass game the offense needs to switch it up and start running more.

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The NFL is cyclical and you will see the running game be dominate again. Sooner than later I believe. Just look at what won the SB, a dominate defense with a solid running game. I really think we're going to see offenses trying to pound the ball more and rely on a stout defense again. Like it was said earlier, when defenses get more and more adapted to the pass game the offense needs to switch it up and start running more.

 

Exactly. The Panthers attempted the 6th fewest passing attempts during the regular season.

 

In the playoffs last year, only Teddy Bridgewater attempted fewer pass attempts per game than either Peyton or Cam.

 

The rules allow teams to take advantage of lax coverage, but running the ball still keeps opposing offenses off the field, the clock running, and the lead (seemingly) safe.

 

Running the ball isn't going away. It's simply becoming more of a research-oriented phase of the fantasy game to predict, project, and analyze which offenses will utilize it successfully.

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Last season, I drafted, A. Peterson, D. Freeman and D. Martin. That's right...I had the top 3 RB's in FF (in my format you can start 3 rb's flex) and i didn't even make the playoffs in a 10 team league!

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Last season, I drafted, A. Peterson, D. Freeman and D. Martin. That's right...I had the top 3 RB's in FF (in my format you can start 3 rb's flex) and i didn't even make the playoffs in a 10 team league!

 

Last year I had as keepers Eddie Lacy and Lamar Miller. Miller was acquired in an offseason trade. I was able to draft Doug Martin very late in our draft. I was in the running for the ship at the trade deadline and pulled the trigger to trade Lacy for Charles, so I could have him as a keeper this year. I finished 2nd in overall standings last year, but keeping Lacy wouldn't have helped. This year my starting RB's will be Charles and Martin. I feel pretty good about that.

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Devonta Freeman in PPR leagues would've been the #4 RB in 2014 AND 2013.

 

Peterson and Woodhead would've finished #7 and #8 respectively in 2013 and #7 and #9 respectively in 2014.

 

Yeah there was a slight dropoff last season among the TOP running backs, but look at the points for the RB2/3 last year compared to recent years. Their median score was actually a slight bit higher by and large.

 

As it pertains to Arian Foster though, I dunno when you were drafting, but in my drafts at the end of August, he was being selected in the 7th-9th rounds. I don't think anyone was banking on top-3 given his recovery from injury and the projection he'd miss multiple games in the beginning of the year.

That's my point exactly. The top tier was gone last season pretty much. Freeman last year was behind the top RB of 2014, which was Demarco Murray and 2013, which was Jamaal Charles by light years.

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I'd venture to say that we will see an increase in running this year. In a zig don't zag mentality. I've seen several coaches discuss the idea that secondaries are getting smaller to compete with passing offenses. I could see some teams try to exploit this.

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That's my point exactly. The top tier was gone last season pretty much. Freeman last year was behind the top RB of 2014, which was Demarco Murray and 2013, which was Jamaal Charles by light years

 

In a standard roster format, teams have to start 2 RB.

 

In one of my main leagues (1 pt PPR):

 

Here's the breakdown over the past three years for RBs from the top RB overall to the RB12 to the RB24

 

317.40 all the way down to 202.70 (114.70 point difference between RB1 & RB12) all the way down to 163.30 (39.40 point difference between RB12 & RB24)

 

370.50 all the way down to 201.40 (169.1 point difference between RB1 & RB12) all the way down to 146.00 (55.40 point difference between RB12 & RB24)

 

378.00 all the way down to 225.40 (152.60 point difference between RB1 & RB12) all the way down to 174.50 (50.90 point difference between RB12 & RB24)

 

 

Regardless of how many points they score, position relativity is all that matters to me any given year. Last year's stats, or the lack thereof, has no bearing on this year's positional outcome. The times they are a changing.

 

Look no further than the positional volatility of the tight ends. Everyone is gung-ho saying tight ends this year are deeper than ever, but the difference between the top TE and the 10th best TE over the past three years has continued to surpass 100 total points. Funnily enough, over the past two seasons, the top tight end and the 5th tight end have been separated by approximately 50 points both years.

 

This really doesn't change all that much in my eyes on drafting. I've long leaned towards value-based drafting based on the perceived/projected difference at a position, particularly for two players that might score around the same amount of points at year's end.

 

If I'm on the clock and RB14 offers me a projected .85 PPG higher than the next running back, and the WR8 offers me a projected .79 PPG higher than the next WR, I'll take the running back.

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In a standard roster format, teams have to start 2 RB.

 

In one of my main leagues (1 pt PPR):

 

Here's the breakdown over the past three years for RBs from the top RB overall to the RB12 to the RB24

 

317.40 all the way down to 202.70 (114.70 point difference between RB1 & RB12) all the way down to 163.30 (39.40 point difference between RB12 & RB24)

 

370.50 all the way down to 201.40 (169.1 point difference between RB1 & RB12) all the way down to 146.00 (55.40 point difference between RB12 & RB24)

 

378.00 all the way down to 225.40 (152.60 point difference between RB1 & RB12) all the way down to 174.50 (50.90 point difference between RB12 & RB24)

 

 

Regardless of how many points they score, position relativity is all that matters to me any given year. Last year's stats, or the lack thereof, has no bearing on this year's positional outcome. The times they are a changing.

 

Look no further than the positional volatility of the tight ends. Everyone is gung-ho saying tight ends this year are deeper than ever, but the difference between the top TE and the 10th best TE over the past three years has continued to surpass 100 total points. Funnily enough, over the past two seasons, the top tight end and the 5th tight end have been separated by approximately 50 points both years.

 

This really doesn't change all that much in my eyes on drafting. I've long leaned towards value-based drafting based on the perceived/projected difference at a position, particularly for two players that might score around the same amount of points at year's end.

 

If I'm on the clock and RB14 offers me a projected .85 PPG higher than the next running back, and the WR8 offers me a projected .79 PPG higher than the next WR, I'll take the running back.

This is another evolution that makes me think a shift to the run game is coming.

 

TE's do really well in two scenarios.

 

1) if they are too fast for a LB to cover them (Gronk)

 

or

 

2) if they are big bodied and sure handed (most of the rest)

 

in a zone D (or even man D) if they get that big body in front of the defender, it doesnt matter if they are covered, the QB throws and they get to the ball first.

 

This is typical if they are up against smaller, faster LB's.

 

They just outmuscle them for the ball.

 

Change is comin. its just a matter of when.

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When the majority of defenses are built smaller and faster a power run game may be able to make a come back where a team muscles down the field and it becomes very successful.

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i still don't get the line of thinking that fantasy redrafts must now be WR-WR or WR heavy in the first few rounds. You can win with any strategy and can make just as strong an argument that the lack of true workhorse RB's means you WANT to lock one down in the first 2 rounds.

 

Its absolutely true, there are far fewer workhorse backs than there used to be and many of the ones we would consider workhorses are coming off injury or are being labeled a workhorse without taking a snap in the NFL (zeke). The league has become a passing league (been that way for a while) but another outcome of this is that there is so much WR depth, more than ever before. so it's really just as viable to grab a Peterson or Gurley or Bell in round 1 of your redraft and have plenty of excellent WR's to choose from in rounds 2 and 3. Or a Doug Martin type in round 2.

 

I just always laugh when the annual "WR-WR" birds flock to the board.

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i still don't get the line of thinking that fantasy redrafts must now be WR-WR or WR heavy in the first few rounds. You can win with any strategy and can make just as strong an argument that the lack of true workhorse RB's means you WANT to lock one down in the first 2 rounds.

 

Its absolutely true, there are far fewer workhorse backs than there used to be and many of the ones we would consider workhorses are coming off injury or are being labeled a workhorse without taking a snap in the NFL (zeke). The league has become a passing league (been that way for a while) but another outcome of this is that there is so much WR depth, more than ever before. so it's really just as viable to grab a Peterson or Gurley or Bell in round 1 of your redraft and have plenty of excellent WR's to choose from in rounds 2 and 3. Or a Doug Martin type in round 2.

 

I just always laugh when the annual "WR-WR" birds flock to the board.

I fully agree, any strategy can work. Success will depend on the free agent and waiver moves you make. Good draft picks will only keep the ship steady, they wont win the race.

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i still don't get the line of thinking that fantasy redrafts must now be WR-WR or WR heavy in the first few rounds. You can win with any strategy and can make just as strong an argument that the lack of true workhorse RB's means you WANT to lock one down in the first 2 rounds.

 

Its absolutely true, there are far fewer workhorse backs than there used to be and many of the ones we would consider workhorses are coming off injury or are being labeled a workhorse without taking a snap in the NFL (zeke). The league has become a passing league (been that way for a while) but another outcome of this is that there is so much WR depth, more than ever before. so it's really just as viable to grab a Peterson or Gurley or Bell in round 1 of your redraft and have plenty of excellent WR's to choose from in rounds 2 and 3. Or a Doug Martin type in round 2.

 

I just always laugh when the annual "WR-WR" birds flock to the board.

 

Because top WRs will score 100-125 pts more than average starting WRs over the course of a season and the top RBs do not.

And 1/2 of the top consensus RBs turn out to be busts anyway.

Even after a ridonkulous comeback season by Doug Martin... a guy like Danny Woodhead still outscored him.

AP had a great season. Latavius had a terrible season (vs expectations). AP scored 260 and Lat 200 in PPR. The point differential is not there like a Brandon Marshall (339) vs a Golden Tate (209)... two really good PPR WRs.

Add in a flex position in PPR... the most important position to fill in FF... i.e. WRs that score 200+ that don't have the volatility that RBs do... well, it seems laughable to me to laugh at going WR early and often.

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Both WW and Quickolas present both sides of the argument very well. For me it comes down to draft slot. If I have an early pick and can get a Gurley type I'll take it. Later in the first and I'm likely going WR/WR unless someone falls.

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The NFL is cyclical.

The NFL is a bit copy cat

 

Part of this is impacted by the talent that enters the draft pool.

Part of this is impacted by last years trend.

 

Latter is easy to understand. What got that team into and winning the Super Bowl? To be consistent. We shall copy them.

you see this emulated in the draft by teams that lack vision.

 

Reality is, the most successful team is the team which score the most. Meaning at every position. At every position consistently.

 

============

 

That stated, RB is important for there are few valued players to be had.

That stated there are quite a few WR. that will offer a fair value.

Scoring systems in FF have added PPR that benefit the receiving WR/RB.

 

============

 

In the end, I think it is of more value to focus on passing side of the game.

But not to ignore the value that can be had at the RB.

 

Be willing to compile the best value possible at each pick/bid in a balanced manner

 

It isn't splashy, but gets it done.

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Both WW and Quickolas present both sides of the argument very well. For me it comes down to draft slot. If I have an early pick and can get a Gurley type I'll take it. Later in the first and I'm likely going WR/WR unless someone falls.

Well, it's always about what slot you draft from and what players are left.

 

I could plan on drafting a WR all I want, but if I'm drafting in the #9 slot and 8 wrs are already off the board guest what? at this point it's probably dumb to take a WR.

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I will be looking at going wr/wr going into any ppr draft .

 

But it could change once the draft gets going ,and from that point just depends on how the draft comes to me .

 

I think the days of going rb/rb are gone and will be for some time .

 

To many RBBC now and seems like most coaches like the ideal .

 

From what I can find in 2012 five RBs had more than 300 carries, last three seasons five total over 300 carries.

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Also, any discussion like this, you must take into account your leagues scoring system. They can vary quite widely. Just in the leagues I play in the top players at any postion can vary 5-6 spots or so at the top from league to league and even more so further down the list. If you get bonuses for 100/300 yard games, extra points for TDs 40+ yards, PPR can vary widely as well, it makes a big difference. I'm sure I'm not the only one who plays in leagues with very different scoring systems. For the most part the good players should still be the good players but the scoring system can give certain positions or types of players an advantage. So really it's how you can convert all this to your specific scoring system.

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Serious question. Do you build your team around stud RB's or WR's? I know the game has changed, and the strategies are different between redraft, keeper and dynasty..... Years ago, I always drafted RB/RB in the first two rounds. Now I prefer WR/WR, unless there is a run on WR's in round one and a top guys falls down the board.

 

I'm asking specifically because I took Elliott in the rookie draft in my dynasty league and have had some pretty solid offers for young WR's. I am already ok at RB in that league, and it's a horrible experience trying to get decent WR's as people hoard them....

if you have adequate backs and need the wideouts this is a no brainer.

Running backs have a 3-5 year window to be great.

Wideouts get 5-7...

 

also, you can find running backs. look how many championships teams started hightower last year...

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The shift I've noticed is that wide receivers are now taking the first round by storm, and the seemingly 1st rounders from yesteryear are slipping into the early-mid 1st. Guys like Devonta Freeman and/or Lamar Miller can be paired with an Allen Robinson this year.

 

I think there's a bevy of reasons why that's happening though: Injuries are less frequent at the premier WR spots, running backs as a plurality are getting fewer carries, RBBC, PPR and the new rules in place in the NFL, and cost-effectiveness of the position from top to bottom.

 

Guys like Chris Ivory, Frank Gore, and Wendell Smallwood could be had in the double-digit rounds at the time of this posting, but could ultimately end up being the leading producer from a fantasy sense in their respective backfield. Charles Sims has an ADP right now of 115.70. In PPR leagues Sims finished the season as the 16th highest scoring RB and averaged more PPG than Gio Bernard, TJ Yeldon, and Eddie Lacy.

 

There's just so much volatility at RB right now that unless you can guarantee yourself of a stud RB that's going to finish at or near his respective draft position, it's a massive gamble. And in the event you do draft a RB in the top 5, or 10, you still could be behind the eight-ball if someone that goes zero-RB gets two guys that outperform a majority at the position.

and yet this is the reason I feel like if I have a shot at gurley next year i have to take him; there simply aren't any bell cows any more...

 

it's tough.

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The rules and officiating of the modern NFL make a WR much more valuable than an RB. Even with many fewer RBs, the lack of emphasis on running combined with RBBC significantly lowers the value of an RB IMO.

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I think the days of going rb/rb are gone and will be for some time .

 

If I can pair Lamar Miller and Ezekiel Elliott together in redraft, I'm gonna need a new pair of shorts

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If I can pair Lamar Miller and Ezekiel Elliott together in redraft, I'm gonna need a new pair of shorts

I'm in rebuilding mode with a dynasty team. Going the RB/RB route. Got 1st pick, Zeke and traded for Gurley. Lamar Miller would be good too.

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You may be right. But I doubt that the Run game will completely disappear. It will become less of a factor, but wont disappear entirely.

The NFL is to scared of more players suffering from head injures .

 

This is the game they want now.

 

i don't think it's going to change.

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If I can pair Lamar Miller and Ezekiel Elliott together in redraft, I'm gonna need a new pair of shorts

That is entirely possible but might take Lamar falling a spot or two. He should be an early to mid 2nd rounder by draft day with a bit of hype.

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Because top WRs will score 100-125 pts more than average starting WRs over the course of a season and the top RBs do not.

And 1/2 of the top consensus RBs turn out to be busts anyway.

Even after a ridonkulous comeback season by Doug Martin... a guy like Danny Woodhead still outscored him.

AP had a great season. Latavius had a terrible season (vs expectations). AP scored 260 and Lat 200 in PPR. The point differential is not there like a Brandon Marshall (339) vs a Golden Tate (209)... two really good PPR WRs.

Add in a flex position in PPR... the most important position to fill in FF... i.e. WRs that score 200+ that don't have the volatility that RBs do... well, it seems laughable to me to laugh at going WR early and often.

 

but you also have to factor in what you need to start and what other teams need to start relative to the available supply.... long winded way of saying supply vs demand. im not at all arguing against playing a WR in the flex in a PPR. Its usually easier to find a WR who will get you consistent flex points each week.

 

but in a league where each team has to start 2 RBs and 2 WRs there are FAAAAR more WR's to choose from and far less RBs.

 

like i said in my previous post, there are many different ways to successfully draft, but the notion that you don't win with RBs anymore is silly.

 

with 7 total TD's I wouldn't call Doug Martins season a ridonkulous comeback, fwiw.

....also when you compare AP to Murray, you're comparing RB 2 with RB 10 (i owned both in my main league last year) but comparing Marshall to Tate is comparing WR 3 to WR 24. bit of a difference there.

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NFL isn't scared.

 

It is just a question of where the talent is now.

 

Recently

1. RB coming in have not been dominant, hence RBBC

2. Receiving RB is nothing new to the game, but in the absence of dominance.

3. Passing has improved. Depth is there, but not always at WR. See Pats and TE tandems, receiving RB, ets.

 

Talent has always been cyclical.

 

However, question is really about drafting.

RB may need to be categorized in 2 camps. Receiving and Rushing.

 

If thought in those terms. There are approximately at each position:

4 dominant receiving rb

4 dominant rushing rb

2 dominant te

12 dominant wide receivers (in a game where most teams line up 3, etc.)

8 dominant quarterbacks.

 

past the 12 wr, the drop isn't as great.

 

I would say it is important to get a RB early.

But equally important not to fill other spots before RB, with the caveat of Best Player available provided your starting lineup is balanced

 

heck even in the days of RB focus and WR is a dime a dozen. Taking more than 3rb in the first 6 rounds never made sense. Same is true now about WR.

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Disagree , before ppr leagues and with the teams much more focus on the run game taking 3 Rbs in the first six rounds was what most people tried to do .

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