In all my years playing FF I've never landed a Stud RB in the draft.

[DaBeerz 88]

I can't quite explain it, but I've yet to actually successfully draft a stud RB in the first round of a draft. I've found respectable RB off the WW or sometimes good RB2, but I've never had one of those Stud RB years where your team gets carried by the best RB in the league. Not for lack of trying though, I always used to draft with the "get a stud RB in the first round" philosophy. Never worked out for me once.

 

This post will be going back quite a ways but some of you will remember.

 

Marshall Faulk, was coming off a 20+ TD season and was poised to be a monster. I recall he rolled over his head in early in the season and was never the same. Bust pick that year.

 

A-Train (Anthony Thomas): coming off his stellar rookie season and rookie of the year award. Drafted first round overall, Total softmore slump, Bust.

 

Corey Dillon (on the Bengals) previous outing he had a 1300+ yard 10 TD season. Next season he had lots of fumbles, and rarely found paydirt in the endzone. Seemed like every week he went off, he was on my bench. Bust.

 

Priest Holmes: Coming off a 2000+ all purpose yards, 27 TD season. Got hurt mid season in what was looking like another career year. Bust* but I can forgive this one.

 

Ricky Williams: Following a career year, then posted a respectable 1300+ 9TD season. Drafted first round he only played 12 games and scored 6 times. Bust.

 

Shaun Alexander: Remember his 1800+ yard, 27 TD season? Yeah, I drafted him the following year, total bust value for the pick.

 

I know there were a lot more in there I'm forgetting, but those were the big busts. After that I started trying to mitigate the first round bust by taking QB or WR in round 1 instead. I figure if you're savvy you can find RB talent off the WW.

 

Anyone else have bad luck with drafting RB in the first round?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I rarely hit on first rnd rbs

[JtmoneyJag 25]

I'm thinking you may want to chase someone who is in the 6-10 range (just to switch it up) instead of going after the stud from the previous year. Jeremy Hill is Demarco Murray of 2015 in my opinion. Not that he will get 1,800 yards, but I think he finishes as a top 5 back. Anyways, for me it is hit or miss. I have had more luck grabbing guys who were up and coming than I have had with studs from the year before. Lesean McCoy screwed me last year. Same with Jamaal Charles a few years back when he tore ACL.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Yep, thats why iv been saying to say screw it and take Luck and call it a day in 6pnt pass td leagues. Im sick of hearing about all this great value ill be getting when I wait on a qb and take the RB first. It just ends with me having pedestrian games at QB that I could have gotten off the waiver wire while my RB just falls on his face and hindsight masters say they told me so. In 15 years iv maybe drafted 4-5 profitable guys in rnd 1. even wrs are iffy as iv never scored on one of those either. The Randy ratio! Moss gonna catch 120 passes! Bust. Randy Moss gonna have 16 tds with Kerry Collins! Bust. Calvin the no fail top 6 pick last year, Bust.

[Ray_T 587]

roughly half the top 10 RB's arent in the top 10 the next year.

 

key signs to watch out for:

 

1) Age. 30 seems to be the magic number. some RB's last to 31 or 32 some last til they are 28 or 29. As they get closer to 30 their chances of going bust increase.

2) Workload: there are many articles on workload of RB's. I think the number most use is 350 carries. if they exceed 350 the chances of being injured or ineffective the following year go up tremendously.

3) O line. If the line has lots of turnover, or if the blocking scheme is changed from the year previous. This isnt necessarily always a bad thing, but some RB's dont respond well to changes in blocking schemes (often goes hand in hand with a change in coaching)

4) major injury (goes hand in hand with age) I believe a major injury such as an ACL, MCL or PCL at any point in the career generally shortens the career by a year.

a Lis Franc injury is often a career ender for a RB, but if it isnt, it will certainly shorten the shelf life by at least a year.

 

if 2 out of the above are working against you, re-evaluate your valuation of the player in question. Ask yourself if you want the risk.

 

this isnt a guarantee that player will go bust, it just means the chances of this happening are substantially greater.

 

Good Luck

[JtmoneyJag 25]

For the first time this year, I decided to draft WR early in my main league. Always went RB in round 1 every year. I told myself if the RB that I want doesn't fall to me than I'm taking the stud WR. Just too many questions with RB's this year. Load up on depth and hope you hit on one of your later picks.

[Ray_T 587]

its tough to draft a RB if you pick later than slot #8.

 

You could have a top rated WR or QB instead of a 2nd tier RB. Its all about getting the value at the point where you draft.

 

sometimes you get lucky and a stud RB drops to your slot later in round 1, but that is likely the exception and not the rule. The key is to be flexible and adapt to the situation.

[DaBeerz 88]

I'm thinking you may want to chase someone who is in the 6-10 range (just to switch it up) instead of going after the stud from the previous year. Jeremy Hill is Demarco Murray of 2015 in my opinion. Not that he will get 1,800 yards, but I think he finishes as a top 5 back. Anyways, for me it is hit or miss. I have had more luck grabbing guys who were up and coming than I have had with studs from the year before. Lesean McCoy screwed me last year. Same with Jamaal Charles a few years back when he tore ACL.

 

That's my problem, I always seem to grab them when they're in a hangover year. Frustrating as hell. I eventually just got tired of that draft strategy and went for QB or WR. WR has actually worked for me, I got CJ when he was blazing, and I had TO when he went nuts his first year in Philly. QB has also worked out well for the most part, taking a top tier QB usually has a lot less risk than a RB.

[DaBeerz 88]

roughly half the top 10 RB's arent in the top 10 the next year.

 

key signs to watch out for:

 

1) Age. 30 seems to be the magic number. some RB's last to 31 or 32 some last til they are 28 or 29. As they get closer to 30 their chances of going bust increase.

2) Workload: there are many articles on workload of RB's. I think the number most use is 350 carries. if they exceed 350 the chances of being injured or ineffective the following year go up tremendously.

3) O line. If the line has lots of turnover, or if the blocking scheme is changed from the year previous. This isnt necessarily always a bad thing, but some RB's dont respond well to changes in blocking schemes (often goes hand in hand with a change in coaching)

4) major injury (goes hand in hand with age) I believe a major injury such as an ACL, MCL or PCL at any point in the career generally shortens the career by a year.

a Lis Franc injury is often a career ender for a RB, but if it isnt, it will certainly shorten the shelf life by at least a year.

 

if 2 out of the above are working against you, re-evaluate your valuation of the player in question. Ask yourself if you want the risk.

 

this isnt a guarantee that player will go bust, it just means the chances of this happening are substantially greater.

 

Good Luck

 

Good post, this is why I feel like AP is a risk, I think he could be a disappontment to FF owners.

 

This stat is very interesting if you look at the Best RB seasons for a back over 30.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/best-running-back-seasons-by-30plus-year-olds.aspx

 

 

Only 12 out of the list of 50 posted double digit TD seasons.

 

Only 1/2 put up seasons over 1000 yards. None have done it since 2009.

 

Those are not favourable odds. Not saying don't ever draft a RB over 30, but I would not do it in the first round.

[SexyRexy 60]

I don't think 30 is a magic number. It's dependant on number of carries over he course of a career which for feature bAcks typically equals about the same come age 30.

 

For this reason there are exceptions such as a justin forsett type. Low mileage. Also why lynch hasn't fallen of a cliff yet. He wasn't a workhorse his entire career.

[Kent 228]

I got the Faulk bad year.

 

But I also got the only good McFadden year. And Jamal and Larry Johnson stud years.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

 

Good post, this is why I feel like AP is a risk, I think he could be a disappontment to FF owners.

 

This stat is very interesting if you look at the Best RB seasons for a back over 30.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/best-running-back-seasons-by-30plus-year-olds.aspx

 

 

Only 12 out of the list of 50 posted double digit TD seasons.

 

Only 1/2 put up seasons over 1000 yards. None have done it since 2009.

 

Those are not favourable odds. Not saying don't ever draft a RB over 30, but I would not do it in the first round.

What about Gore? Isn't he 32?

 

Gore did it last year at 31 and the year before at 30. Pretty amazing how conistent he has been.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I got the Faulk bad year.

 

But I also got the only good McFadden year. And Jamal and Larry Johnson stud years.

Dont think DMC was a 1st rounder that big year tho. the year after he was, I took him and he was a bust of course.

[smash-a-mus 6]

You should fade your picks. (Sports betting terminology to pick against yourself). Draft who you like the least out of the 1st round running backs. Problem solved!

[Kent 228]

Dont think DMC was a 1st rounder that big year tho. the year after he was, I took him and he was a bust of course.

He wasn't. I got him late and he was my flex player. Needless to say I won my league that season.

[tanatastic 2,061]

He wasn't. I got him late and he was my flex player. Needless to say I won my league that season.

Yep. We talkin about actually getting what you pay for and drafting that stud in rnd 1. Seems like a fairy tale for me usually. A decent year from forte is about the only one ive ever had. Maybe I got Rudi johnson one of those years too.

[DaBeerz 88]

So I ask is the "Get a stud RB in the first round" draft philosophy dead? I would really like to know on average for those who win their leagues, what they're drafting in each round.

[tanatastic 2,061]

So I ask is the "Get a stud RB in the first round" draft philosophy dead? I would really like to know on average for those who win their leagues, what they're drafting in each round.

 

No it's alive and well, it just tails off about halfway through the first round. The more I analyzed the draft class, the more potential I saw to wait on rbs. If it means I'm stacked at the other positions I'll happily roll with a stable of Latavious, Ivory, Martin, Mathews, D Johnson, Mason, T Coleman etc.

[Beyond Chaos 75]

So I ask is the "Get a stud RB in the first round" draft philosophy dead? I would really like to know on average for those who win their leagues, what they're drafting in each round.

I played in 2 10 team pay leagues last year. In the one I won I drafted Matt Forte at #3 overall in the 1st rd and was fortunate enough to have Demarco Murray fall to me in a later round. In the one I didn't make the playoffs in, I believe Peyton Manning was my first round pick at the 7 spot. I did have the toughest schedule in the 2nd league (most points against) and lead the league in scoring but again didn't make the playoffs. I finished 7-7 in both leagues. Make of that what you will.

[DaBeerz 88]

I played in 2 10 team pay leagues last year. In the one I won I drafted Matt Forte at #3 overall in the 1st rd and was fortunate enough to have Demarco Murray fall to me in a later round. In the one I didn't make the playoffs in, I believe Peyton Manning was my first round pick at the 7 spot. I did have the toughest schedule in the 2nd league (most points against) and lead the league in scoring but again didn't make the playoffs. I finished 7-7 in both leagues. Make of that what you will.

 

Man...you're making me think FF is all luck if a 7-7 team can win it!

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Man...you're making me think FF is all luck if a 7-7 team can win it!

Not all, just 80% or so.

[Ray_T 587]

What about Gore? Isn't he 32?

 

Gore did it last year at 31 and the year before at 30. Pretty amazing how conistent he has been.

Gore did it at 31 last year, but he was running behind one of the best lines in pro football. that being said, his numbers were down significantly from previous years.

 

the wheels havnt fallen off, but they are close.

 

someone also said Lynch, but hes not 30 yet. He is 29.

 

he also has some hard miles on the odometer. I predict this is the very last year he will be highly productive.

 

Players like him dont depend on speed. they depend on power. He is more likely to blow up because of an injury. At the age of 30, the injury risk goes up quite substantially.

 

working in his favour is that he has not had a major injury as a pro like many RB's that reach the age of 30. He has also never run for more than 315 carries (not in the regular season at least)

 

worth noting is that his workload dropped to 280 carries which is the lowest number since he's been in Seattle. he had 301 and 315 the two years previous. So The coaching staff is well aware and starting to manage his workload a bit.

[DaBeerz 88]

Gore did it at 31 last year, but he was running behind one of the best lines in pro football. that being said, his numbers were down significantly from previous years.

 

the wheels havnt fallen off, but they are close.

 

someone also said Lynch, but hes not 30 yet. He is 29.

 

he also has some hard miles on the odometer. I predict this is the very last year he will be highly productive.

 

Players like him dont depend on speed. they depend on power. He is more likely to blow up because of an injury. At the age of 30, the injury risk goes up quite substantially.

 

working in his favour is that he has not had a major injury as a pro like many RB's that reach the age of 30. He has also never run for more than 315 carries (not in the regular season at least)

 

worth noting is that his workload dropped to 280 carries which is the lowest number since he's been in Seattle. he had 301 and 315 the two years previous. So The coaching staff is well aware and starting to manage his workload a bit.

 

Good post. I think all the graph/stats are suggesting is that on average RB 30 or above are a huge risk, especially in the first round.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

Gore did it at 31 last year, but he was running behind one of the best lines in pro football. that being said, his numbers were down significantly from previous years.

 

the wheels havnt fallen off, but they are close.

 

someone also said Lynch, but hes not 30 yet. He is 29.

 

he also has some hard miles on the odometer. I predict this is the very last year he will be highly productive.

 

Players like him dont depend on speed. they depend on power. He is more likely to blow up because of an injury. At the age of 30, the injury risk goes up quite substantially.

 

working in his favour is that he has not had a major injury as a pro like many RB's that reach the age of 30. He has also never run for more than 315 carries (not in the regular season at least)

 

worth noting is that his workload dropped to 280 carries which is the lowest number since he's been in Seattle. he had 301 and 315 the two years previous. So The coaching staff is well aware and starting to manage his workload a bit.

But at the same time they play some of the toughest run d's in the league 8 times a year.

[pee-diddy 27]

I just got up out of the fetal position after having a bout with PTSD, having flashbacks of Fred Taylor on my squad. This was before he earned the nickname Fragile Fred Taylor. Of course, I drafted him the year he earned that nickname

[JtmoneyJag 25]

I just got up out of the fetal position after having a bout with PTSD, having flashbacks of Fred Taylor on my squad. This was before he earned the nickname Fragile Fred Taylor. Of course, I drafted him the year he earned that nickname

Freddie T! One of the best players I've ever watched play. Power, size, quickness and speed. He had a great career and even had an amazing season after 30, but man without those injuries he could have been viewed elite by the average fan.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Freddie T! One of the best players I've ever watched play. Power, size, quickness and speed. He had a great career and even had an amazing season after 30, but man without those injuries he could have been viewed elite by the average fan.

You are a gator fan after all!

 

Kidding

[JtmoneyJag 25]

You are a gator fan after all!

 

Kidding

Once they are Jaguars than they have my full support. Freddie T was one of our greatest. I can separate college from pro. Ironically a lot of gator fans have trouble with that.

[uwilose123 2]

EEEEEEK DUDE ...a couple of those ring true for me as well as Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker, Dominic Davis, Ahman Green, Lamar Miller all first round bustts! Those are what come to the top of my head. Who you drafting this year?

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Once they are Jaguars than they have my full support. Freddie T was one of our greatest. I can separate college from pro. Ironically a lot of gator fans have trouble with that.

You're a touchy fella

[weepaws 2,452]

EEEEEEK DUDE ...a couple of those ring true for me as well as Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker, Dominic Davis, Ahman Green, Lamar Miller all first round bustts! Those are what come to the top of my head. Who you drafting this year?

You took L miller in the first round ?

[tanatastic 2,061]

You took L miller in the first round ?

Yea miller has never been a first rounder.

[sirensong 111]

i picked up jamaal charles off the WW just before larry johnson got cut.

 

[Swampdonkey 5]

A guy in my local money league took miller in rd 3 lol

[uwilose123 2]

Yea miller has never been a first rounder.

I took him 10th the year after he had that huge playoff game for Miami. Edgerrin James post ACL i took 7th another bust

[DaBeerz 88]

EEEEEEK DUDE ...a couple of those ring true for me as well as Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker, Dominic Davis, Ahman Green, Lamar Miller all first round bustts! Those are what come to the top of my head. Who you drafting this year?

 

Guys I would target in the first round: AP (exeption to the 30 year rule, he's had a year off to get healthy, I think he could be very productive), Lacy, Charles, and even Bell are worth picking in the first round. After that I'd be hesitant to target a RB in the first round. I'm hesitant on CJ Anderson in the first (RBBC), Lynch (workload catching up to him), Forte (Bad D, bad all around team abanding the run in games). Murray (due for an injury, workload).

 

Hill looks like a solid RB1 pick to target in the 2nd.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

You're a touchy fella

 

maybe I should have added an emoticon at the end. Changes the whole context.

[SUXBNME 1,322]

The only time I hit a stud in round 1 (first pick) was LT in 2006. Still didn't win the league