**NCAA Basketball Bubble Talk- 3/11**

[Fumbleweed 422]

Updated the original post again.

 

Like Zero said, Seton Hall should go to the NIT. I don't see them making it in. West Virginia will be an interesting case. They can't very well leave out UConn now...so they're probably safe. But WVU? I say no like posty said, but we'll see...

 

Lots of stuff going down today on the bubble. All the heavyweights will be in action as of tomorrow. Texas MUST win tonight or else I think their bubble will burst.

[DanXIII 8]

In your opinion, is Bama still a solid 'in' or do they need to win a few SEC Tourney games given the weak finish against Ole Miss?

 

I ask because they actually have a much worse conference record this year than last year and got left out last year. They're actually behind Tennessee right now in terms of conference record (again thanks to laying the egg against Ole Miss).

[ZeroTolerance 582]

In your opinion, is Bama still a solid 'in' or do they need to win a few SEC Tourney games given the weak finish against Ole Miss?

 

I ask because they actually have a much worse conference record this year than last year and got left out last year. They're actually behind Tennessee right now in terms of conference record (again thanks to laying the egg against Ole Miss).

I think Bama is safe, though they shouldn't press their luck and lose to South Carolina. While UT has them in conference record, Alabama has the better overall profile with wins over Wichita St, Purdue, and VCU. I also think West Virginia is safe, whether or not they should be. South Florida needs the win over Notre Dame tonight.

[DanXIII 8]

I feel like they'll beat SC (they're winning atm) but UF is a whole nother animal. It would have really been nice to get that first round bye and then open with an LSU or someone else but w/e

[DanXIII 8]

Annnnd tied up with 5:46 left. God ******

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Washington bricking FTs and putting themselves back on the bubble. Unfortunately at the end of the day, I don't trust the committee to look past the empty "Pac-12 Champions" tag and judge the Huskies on their putrid resume.

[Reality 2,710]

Pac 10 + SEC = Absolutely Putrid

 

3-4 teams total make it in between those 2 horrible conferences.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Northwestern should be done now. Colorado St is probably safe, a win tomorrow would make it a lock.

[Fumbleweed 422]

Northwestern should be done now. Colorado St is probably safe, a win tomorrow would make it a lock.

 

Agreed.

 

And, Alabama is pretty much a lock, Dan...

[swirvenirvin 25]

Minnesota has to make it to the finals at the least right?

[ZeroTolerance 582]

The disastrous collapse of Miss St is complete, and the Bulldogs should now be safely out. Oregon needed a couple wins to save their resume, so the bubble has burst on the Ducks.

 

- Miami (FL) took care of business with the win over GT. A win today over Florida St, combined with the bubble carnage from Thursday, should put them in.

- Arizona stays afloat with the win over UCLA. With Oregon going belly up, the Wildcats are the best shot at a third Pac-12 bid, but without a quality opponent in their semifinal match they will need to reach the finals just to have a chance.

- Texas might be the biggest winners of the day, as they pick up a quality win over Iowa St and watch much of the bubble implode. The Longhorns now have a decent shot at picking up an at-large as is, and a win over Missouri would make them a lock.

- Cal avoids a damaging loss and can safely be considered in. If they were to lose today to Colorado, the Pac-12 would be guaranteed a bid theft.

- South Florida couldn't get the big win over Notre Dame, but the Bulls still have a fair chance to get in thanks to all of the bubble attrition. At the very least they still stand above Seton Hall in the Big East pecking order.

- The Mountain West tournament saw zero upsets in the quarterfinals, meaning they are now set at exactly four bids.

[JT 137]

The disastrous collapse of Miss St is complete, and the Bulldogs should now be safely out. Oregon needed a couple wins to save their resume, so the bubble has burst on the Ducks.

 

- Arizona stays afloat with the win over UCLA. With Oregon going belly up, the Wildcats are the best shot at a third Pac-12 bid, but without a quality opponent in their semifinal match they will need to reach the finals just to have a chance.

- Cal avoids a damaging loss and can safely be considered in. If they were to lose today to Colorado, the Pac-12 would be guaranteed a bid theft.

 

If the pathetic PAC 12 gets three bids, squeezing out deserving smaller conference schools, I'll puke. Worst quality basketball I've ever seen from a "major" conference. Absolute crap.

[Reality 2,710]

If the pathetic PAC 12 gets three bids, squeezing out deserving smaller conference schools, I'll puke. Worst quality basketball I've ever seen from a "major" conference. Absolute crap.

 

Truth

[JT 137]

Truth

 

Which of course means we better pencil in their #2 for the Sweet 16.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Minnesota has to make it to the finals at the least right?

Minnesota has to make it to finals to get in right?

[phillybear 364]

Minnesota has to make it to finals to get in right?

 

Well, Northwestern is NIT bound, so I guess Minnesota is ahead of them now. With so many fringe BCS conference teams losing pathetically the last few days, Minnesota has to be in the mix, but their conference record is still pretty sh!tty.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Looking good for my Vols to slip in if they can win two in the tourney. Lots of other bubble teams biting the dust. GO VOLS~

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Temple goes down, the A-10 is now open to a bid thief should Saint Louis not win the title.

 

And to answer the older question, Minnesota needs a Big Ten finals appearance to have any shot.

[JT 137]

Looking good for my Vols to slip in if they can win two in the tourney. Lots of other bubble teams biting the dust. GO VOLS~

 

Even absent the human motel comforter stain that is Bruce Pearl, I can't bring myself to wish anything good for that program.

[JT 137]

Temple goes down, the A-10 is now open to a bid thief should Saint Louis not win the title.

 

Yep. Everybody on the bubble better become big Billikens fans. St Louis and Temple are in.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Even absent the human motel comforter stain that is Bruce Pearl, I can't bring myself to wish anything good for that program.

 

Why?

 

We've sucked pretty much forever. Konzo (or however the fock you spell it) is a stand up guy, and has the guys playing good, unselfish, team basketball.

 

What's not to like?

[JT 137]

Why?

 

We've sucked pretty much forever. Konzo (or however the fock you spell it) is a stand up guy, and has the guys playing good, unselfish, team basketball.

 

What's not to like?

 

I actually do like Cuonzo.

 

Simply loathe Pearl like few people in sports. Guilt by association.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

St Joseph's out. NC State still alive, and getting lots of help across the bubble.

[JT 137]

Boy, SEC is shaky. Only thing that makes me itchy skitchy about Kentucky is how weak the rest of that conference is. Not PAC 12 bad, but pretty bad. Florida sucks out loud.

 

I understand why there are so few bigs across the country, but I can't figure out where all the guards are.

[tikigods 76]

Temple goes down, the A-10 is now open to a bid thief should Saint Louis not win the title.

 

I, for one, was quite happy to see my UMASS boys knock off Temple. We play St. Bonnie's next, who we beat by 9 last time we played. Neutral site...could go either way. I hope they sneak in by winning the A-10

[ZeroTolerance 582]

I, for one, was quite happy to see my UMASS boys knock off Temple. We play St. Bonnie's next, who we beat by 9 last time we played. Neutral site...could go either way. I hope they sneak in by winning the A-10

With Southern Miss trailing by 8 with 3 minutes to go, the bubble will be rooting for Saint Louis and Memphis real hard tonight.

[crackattack 513]

I actually do like Cuonzo.

 

Simply loathe Pearl like few people in sports. Guilt by association.

Ex Purdue player go Boilers.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Some exhaling on the bubble...for now.

 

- Memphis obliterates Central Florida to reach the C-USA finals. Should Marshall knock off Memphis tomorrow, the conference would finish with 3 bids, stealing one from the bubble.

- Saint Louis holds off a very game La Salle to advance to the A-10 semis. The Billikens are the only remaining team in the tournament who are safely in the field, so teams like Northwestern and South Florida will be cheering hard for SLU this weekend.

- Minnesota blitzed by Michigan threes in the final minute to force OT where Trey Burke took over. The Gophers are done and with that the Big Ten should be set at six. On a side note, I'm pretty sure Trey Burke should be wearing the jersey that says "Hardaway Jr." on it.

- Tennessee makes a crazy bankshot buzzer-beater three to force overtime, but their run ended shortly after, made even worse by an official blowing a huge call right in front of him. The Vols are done, and now Ole Miss hangs on the fringe of the bubble. They likely need a run to the title game, including a win over Vandy, to be an at-large threat.

 

- Kansas gets run by Baylor (the Bears' first high end win of the season) and now are in danger of losing their #1 seed. At the very least, the Jayhawks could be shipped out West should North Carolina roll to the ACC title.

- Syracuse is bounced by Cincy. The Orange aren't in danger of losing their 1 seed and should remain #2 on the s-curve. How far they can actually advance with their rebounding issues remains to be seen.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

- Tennessee makes a crazy bankshot buzzer-beater three to force overtime, but their run ended shortly after, made even worse by an official blowing a huge call right in front of him. The Vols are done, and now Ole Miss hangs on the fringe of the bubble. They likely need a run to the title game, including a win over Vandy, to be an at-large threat.

 

Fock.

[nzoner 936]

M-I-Z-

 

 

Z-O-U

 

 

FOCK KU!!

[ZeroTolerance 582]

- Colorado knocks off Cal to advance to the Pac-12 finals. This should guarantee the conference two bids, with Washington possibly taking a third.

- UC Santa Barbara advances to the Big West finals. By beating a much worse Cal Poly team (sub 200 RPI), they help protect Long Beach St in the event of an upset in the title game, as now the worst loss LBSU would take is to USB's 124 RPI. The bubble should strongly cheer for the 49ers to take care of business tonight.

- Vanderbilt beats Georgia, which means Ole Miss will get an opportunity to pick up one more quality win before the SEC finals. The Rebels are still a fringe at-large contender, but they would have had almost no shot if Georgia had been the best team they could beat in the semis.

- Florida St knocks off Miami, which most likely will keep the Hurricanes out of the field.

- Texas couldn't knock off Missouri, but the Longhorns look likely to pick up an at-large thanks to their Iowa St win and all of the bubble carnage of the week.

- Xavier narrowly defeats Dayton to reach the A-10 semifinals. Dayton is done with the loss, and Xavier is now looking pretty safe. With a semifinal match against Saint Louis, the Musketeers are assured of either reaching the conference finals, or taking a loss to a team firmly in the tournament.

 

The big bubble games to watch today:

 

- Memphis vs Marshall, C-USA finals. A Marshall win means 3 teams for C-USA, and one less bid for the bubble.

- Long Beach St vs UC Santa Barbara, Big West finals. While a loss would leave the 49ers nervous come Sunday evening, they most likely will be in. This means bubble teams need to cheer for LBSU to win tonight and keep the Big West at one bid.

- North Carolina vs North Carolina St, ACC semis. North Carolina St is now ahead of Miami in the pecking order, and getting real close to being in the field. While a win over UNC would make them a no-doubter, giving the Tar Heels a good scare is probably enough to get the job done.

- Mississippi vs Vanderbilt, SEC semis. Another elimination game for the Rebels. Their best case at-large scenario continues to be a win over Vandy, and a close loss to Kentucky in the SEC finals. With that said, the Rebels should probably just find a way to win the tournament and take the guesswork out of it.

- Xavier vs Saint Louis, A-10 semis. The bubble will continue rooting for the Billikens, as a Xavier win here should guarantee that the A-10 gets three, and possibly could lead to an upset in the title game, stealing a fourth bid.

[JT 137]

Up early watching Syracuse-Cincy replay. Not sure who wins. Doesn't matter.

 

Syracuse is a very vulnerable tournament team, and I thought so before this game.

 

They almost have to force you out of yours to get theirs. Reliant on turnovers and getting a lead, making the opposition play man-to-man. The P&R is really the only thing they do very well in the halfcourt. Cincy has zoned them in stretches very effectively.

 

For all their size, their ability to rebound is always compromised by playing so much zone.

 

Players WAY too quick to point at and jaw at each other.

 

Most importantly, where do they get their points in a big moment? During the tourney there are going to come times when it's all slowed down, half court. Where do they go for that guaranteed quality shot? If you answer "they get scoring from so many places", then the answer is "they don't know". And that's the wrong answer.

[tikigods 76]

I'm glad Syracuse lost. I hate that focking team.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

I've been down on Syracuse all year. They embody just about every negative quality you could have in the tournament; can't rebound, no 'go to guy', tons of offcourt issues...

[tikigods 76]

I've been down on Syracuse all year. They embody just about every negative quality you could have in the tournament; can't rebound, no 'go to guy', tons of offcourt issues...

 

My GF played college ball in upstate NY so she loves this team...so I've been forced to watch them all season. I'm with you, they're not that good. Kentucky is WAY better. Honestly, after last night's upset of Kansas...I'm really liking Baylor.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Memphis saves the bubble with their win over Marshall. C-USA is set at two bids.

 

- NC State with yet another near miss against a top ACC opponent. The Wolfpack will be forced to sweat it out til tomorrow, but at the very least they have moved themselves ahead of Miami for the ACC's 5th bid.

- St Bonaventure will play the role of bubble villain #1 tomorrow afternoon. A Bonnies win in the A-10 final means another bid stolen.

[JT 137]

My GF played college ball in upstate NY so she loves this team...so I've been forced to watch them all season. I'm with you, they're not that good. Kentucky is WAY better. Honestly, after last night's upset of Kansas...I'm really liking Baylor.

 

In a field like this year I wouldn't be shocked to see a guy like Jones take a team really deep. My reservation is they've been awfully soft at times. Lots of long athletes who don't always man up. I want to see them vs Missouri. If there's one thing Mizzou will do, it's make you man up.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

The battle for the fourth 1 seed:

 

Kansas

RPI - 6

KenPom - 4

SOS - 6

NC SOS - 37

vs top 25 - 5-4

vs 26-50 - 6-1

vs top 100 - 12-6

R/N - 11-5

Best wins - G'town (N), LBSU, OSU, KSU, ISU, Baylor, @Tex, @Baylor, @KSU, Missouri, Texas

 

Michigan St

RPI - 5

KenPom - 3

SOS - 1

NC SOS - 11

vs top 25 - 6-5

vs 26-50 - 3-0

vs top 100 - 12-7

R/N - 8-6

Best wins - FSU, @Gonz, Ind, @Wisc, Purdue, Michigan, @OSU, Wisc, @Pur, Wisc (N)

 

 

Michigan St is at a natural disadvantage thanks to the Big Ten's insistence on playing their conference final so late in the day on Selection Sunday. The committee will almost certainly finish up their bracket well before the game is decided, preventing the Spartans from getting a push over the top from a potential win over Ohio St. The injury to Dawson doesn't help either, as the committee can always cite that as an additional reason for putting Kansas in as the top seed ahead of MSU. The bright spot, at least, is that the Spartans will get a better travel date as the top 2 seed as opposed to being the 1 seed out west.

 

Alright, I am off to play some hold 'em, so my updates will probably be done for awhile. Just to cover things that will happen while I am out:

 

- If Xavier holds on to their second half lead over Saint Louis the Musketeers will be in, and the bubble nightmare scenario of the A-10 stealing a fourth bid with a St. Bonaventure title will remain intact.

- Ole Miss currently trailing Vandy in a close game. The Rebels still need to win this game and at the very least scare Kentucky to have a shot.

- Ohio St and Duke are firmly locked in on the two seed line regardless of their finish today. Michigan should be alright at a three seed, but getting embarrassed by the Buckeyes still isn't a good idea.

- Colorado and Arizona will do battle for the Pac-12 title, but it is almost certainly winner take all as neither team has passable at-large resumes.

- Long Beach St should be safe even in the event of a loss in the Big West title game tonight, making UC Santa Barbara a potential bubble assassin. However, if this does happen don't count out the possibility that the committee snubs the 49ers for their lack of a top 50 win, in spite of the runaway #1 non-conference SOS and plenty of passing marks in the eye test.

[tikigods 76]

In a field like this year I wouldn't be shocked to see a guy like Jones take a team really deep. My reservation is they've been awfully soft at times. Lots of long athletes who don't always man up. I want to see them vs Missouri. If there's one thing Mizzou will do, it's make you man up.

 

Mizzou is giving Baylor a lesson in basketball.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Baylor...lots of size and athleticism, yet to really put it together.