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Doug Orth's Big Boards - Version 1.0

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This is a GREAT tool for folks to use at drafts and all season.

 

Thanks Doug!!

 

A Hint: If you cut and paste this to an Excel spreadsheet.....and then re-sort by the second column (position) you can create a very useful tool during your draft. If you are undecided between 2 players at the same position, it shows you what their SOS which may just help you make up your mind!

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The latest and greatest from yours truly: :doublethumbsup:

 

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/17_pma_big_board_tfc_1.html

 

A heads-up for all you weekend drafters. After watching some more tape on Terrelle Pryor today, I'm going to be moving him up. Let's just it became obvious Cleveland used him a lot more on 9 routes as opposed to in-breaking routes in which he could use his size more effectively. I'm guessing Jay Gruden will use him more effectively in this way (I can't believe I'm saying that). I also think Gruden is smart enough to use him to help the team with its RZ woes. I'll be placing him right behind Larry Fitzgerald at the 3-4 turn. Mind you, I still hate his schedule late, so he is a candidate to trade before your league's trade deadline.

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For as good as Terrelle Pryor‘s 2016 season was perceived as, it’s not good to see his 31.3 percent weekly bust rate and just 50 percent WR3 rate with 9.3 targets per game. Quarterback struggles were certainly part of the blame, but it’s highly unlikely he sees anywhere near that volume in Washington.

 

Another site's counter-point.

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Another site's counter-point.

 

There is no question his stock possesses a high degree of volatility. If Gruden uses him incorrectly or Cousins stubbornly sticks with Crowder/Reed in the red zone, then I should have left him alone in my rankings. I'm going to assume (and I know that is a mistake) Gruden will remember how much his team struggled in the red zone last year and decide to throw it to the big guy, particularly during another Jordan Reed absence.

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Thanks Doug

I have to admit I'm a little confused by the high stakes version. Your comments about WRs made sense but then 8 of your top 13 are running backs. So I'm not sure if your advocating for a late drafter to just go wr heavy in the 1st 2 rounds. If the next tier of rbs is that volatile doesn't that just push them down the list?

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Thanks Doug

I have to admit I'm a little confused by the high stakes version. Your comments about WRs made sense but then 8 of your top 13 are running backs. So I'm not sure if your advocating for a late drafter to just go wr heavy in the 1st 2 rounds. If the next tier of rbs is that volatile doesn't that just push them down the list?

 

I mentioned this at the top of the article (third paragraph ... "clear-cut workhorses"), but I think we can safely assume the first eight RBs are just that. As much as I like a player like Brandin Cooks this year, I can't just jam into the first round. T.Y. Hilton maybe with a healthy Andrew Luck, but that doesn't look like it will happen. I don't think I scrutinized Green and Thomas over Howard and Ajayi on this submission enough. I'll give that some more thought b/c if you were to ask me at this moment who I trust more, it would be the two receivers - even though I think both will lack some consistency.

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Doug, how would you adjust your WR and TE ranks for a league that runs 4 W/T spots instead of 3 WR/1 TE? As I see it, that drops top-tier guys like Gronk/Graham/Kelce/Reed anywhere from 15-20 spots. Feels like the drop would be even steeper for low-end TE1s, who might not even place as top-40 WRs in a PPR or half-PPR league.

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Agreed. Because I have an algorithm I can basically use for any format, I could probably whip a Big Board in relatively short order to prove it. :D

 

To answer your question (and I assume that tight ends are not required at all in your example), I would think Gronk would probably be somewhere in the WR2 mix, Graham/Kelce/Olsen in the WR3 mix and Reed/Rudolph/etc would be fringe starters.

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Yep, no required tight ends. An interesting wrinkle I'm seeing in more leagues I join, but it kinda makes the tight end position completely uninteresting.

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Doug, I was checking out the latest boards and wanted to pick your brain on Crabtree. You're the most bullish ranker I've seen on him. Am I guessing that your thinking is that Carr still really only has him and Cooper to throw to, so another 140 targets + continued red zone love is in the offing?

 

Crabtree seems like the neglected guy in a lot of mock drafts right now. I don't know if I'm quite ready to call him WR11 like you--if the tide swings to Amari, he could be left in the dust--but he seems to keep landing on my rosters.

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Doug, I was checking out the latest boards and wanted to pick your brain on Crabtree. You're the most bullish ranker I've seen on him. Am I guessing that your thinking is that Carr still really only has him and Cooper to throw to, so another 140 targets + continued red zone love is in the offing?

 

Crabtree seems like the neglected guy in a lot of mock drafts right now. I don't know if I'm quite ready to call him WR11 like you--if the tide swings to Amari, he could be left in the dust--but he seems to keep landing on my rosters.

 

I think you pretty much summed it up. Can't count on Cook. I'd be stunned if Cooper doesn't take another step forward (and fortunately I have yet to be burned by him) and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if this is "his year," but that damn stat about no career targets inside the 10 for Cooper is stuck in my head. Cooper can and should be a top-eight fantasy WR, we just need to see Carr to feel the same way.

 

Don't think of Crabtree as my WR11, think of him more as the safest option in that general area of the draft with proven upside.

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How many years is Crabtree removed from that Achilles injury? If you tell me 2 and that lynch still has something left in the tank so that lbs will be creeping up to free up the short routes you could be looking at a career year for Michael C.

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Doug,

 

I meant to ask you this question earlier and it slipped my mind. In your first 150 Big Board you wrote:

 

- Michael Thomas established a pretty high floor last year and the automatic assumption is he can only benefit with Brandin Cooks now in New England. Owners hoping for such a scenario to play out will be betting against 11 years of wide receiver history under HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees. With that said, his production doesn't figure to go down either unless the Saints' running game absolutely bludgeons opponents, which is a possibility but not a likelihood given, among other things, the continued question marks on defense.

Thomas' floor last year was first-round worthy, and so I'll take that over the age of DeMarco Murray (never mind the threat of Derrick Henry stealing a few more carries), the capped workload of Melvin Gordon, the lack of dominance Todd Gurley has shown since the midpoint of the 2015 season and the rollercoaster ride that was the second half of Ajayi's 2016 season (less than three yards per carry in three of eight games, two total touchdowns and an average of 12.4 fantasy points per game even with his 206-yard explosion against a weak Buffalo defense in Week 16).

I'm also of the belief A.J. Green will post WR1 numbers at the end of the season but return to his inconsistent ways of doing so, which is why Thomas slots above him as well."

 

So you had Thomas initially higher than Murray and Green but changed your ranking in version 2. I know this is probably being nit-picky but I'm curious (if you'll humor me) to know why?

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Good Day Doug,



Thanks again for all the amazing work you put in doing this. I too use this list as a hidden gem so to speak. I have a few questions. Most rankings we see Gronk and Kelce 1 and 2 and for obvious reasons. But in your rankings you have Graham ahead of Kelce at #2 even though Kelce now has no Maclin to compete for redzone targets. Can you touch on this reasoning? Also Brandin Cooks is a tough one to rank for many sites. I seen him as far down as a WR28. Even here on Mikes rankings he has Cooks as a WR16 as of todays new rankings but once had him around WR20 a month back. But you have him listed as a WR8 I believe right behind AJ Green now. Again can you touch on this huge difference in Cooks rankings/projections?



Thank you

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