Graham vs Olsen

[himmystyles 29]

Who do u like in ppr?

[Kopy 489]

Tough call. Both guys are top 5 te's. Both guys are in contract years. Both seem to go ADP wise in the same round. This is so even, pick the guy you like better. That's never a bad tie breaker. I can say for Graham. He was really good last year, and both him and Carroll admitted at the end of last season. That as good as he looked at times, they really babied him in practices, and he was never truely 100%.

 

Graham and Wilson worked out together in the off season. Him and Russ have become pretty close friends in their couple years playing together. And Jimmy looks great so far in camp. And as good as he looks, Russ has been amazing.

Tough call here.

[himmystyles 29]

Tough call. Both guys are top 5 te's. Both guys are in contract years. Both seem to go ADP wise in the same round. This is so even, pick the guy you like better. That's never a bad tie breaker. I can say for Graham. He was really good last year, and both him and Carroll admitted at the end of last season. That as good as he looked at times, they really babied him in practices, and he was never truely 100%.

 

Graham and Wilson worked out together in the off season. Him and Russ have become pretty close friends in their couple years playing together. And Jimmy looks great so far in camp. And as good as he looks, Russ has been amazing.

Tough call here.

Yeah I think it will come down to who is available to be honest. Picking at the end of the snake draft- doubt both will be there for the taking in any case when I'm ready to go TE.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

I think it's a pretty easy call. Olsen. Graham is still a good option, but in a vacuum, Olsen is the easy choice.

 

I don't care what anyone says, Seattle isn't a team that "wants" to throw the ball, they "want" to run the ball. Last year Wilson had his worst year and it's because he threw the ball a lot... and it didn't really yield better cumulative numbers. Yeah, I know the excuse "he was hurt", but I'm not buying it. The talk is that he started off poorly because of his leg injury, but here are the facts. In his first 5 games... you know, where he was "hurt", he had a 97 passer rating where he averaged over 260 yards and 1 TD per game. In the last 11... when he was supposed to be "healthy", he had a 90 passer rating and averaged the same thing! He averaged over 260 yards and 1 TD (though he did throw more Int's). Last year, his numbers were down... period. Why? Because he threw a lot. I don't really see Graham doing much more than he did last year because I don't think they'll throw more or throw to him more. For the most part, for a what I consider a top 5 TE, I want 12 ppg. Last year, Graham did that 6 times... but he also got single digits 6 times. Graham is going of the board (at this point in time), as the #5 TE and going at pick 61. For that price, no way. The production isn't there. The only reason he averaeged 12 ppg last year was because he had those two (30 and 22), big games. If they were even 15, his ppg average is under 11. There were 10 TE's that averaged 10 ppg or better. I'd rather wait 5 to 7 rounds to take one of them. Graham getting similar to last year at 65/900/5 (11.5 fpg), is a reasonable expectation. I'm fine with that in round 9 or 10... not round 6.

 

 

I believe that Carolina will be better this year than last... though I still don't think they'll be all that good, maybe 8-8 / 7-9. I see no reason why he can't eclipse 75/1100/7 this year (14.2 fpg). Last year, he eclipsed 12 points 9 times (and 10 the year before). Now he did get single digits 6 times each of the last 2 years, like Graham, but Oslen's upside is way higher. At only a 10 pick difference in adp, I'm taking Olsen at pick 51 every time over Graham at 61.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

i am a fan of both and would be happy with either...with a preference for olsen. most leagues i am in award 1.5 ppr for te. last year in ffpc i drafted and started both with a lot of success.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I think it's a pretty easy call. Olsen. Graham is still a good option, but in a vacuum, Olsen is the easy choice.

 

I don't care what anyone says, Seattle isn't a team that "wants" to throw the ball, they "want" to run the ball. Last year Wilson had his worst year and it's because he threw the ball a lot... and it didn't really yield better cumulative numbers. Yeah, I know the excuse "he was hurt", but I'm not buying it. The talk is that he started off poorly because of his leg injury, but here are the facts. In his first 5 games... you know, where he was "hurt", he had a 97 passer rating where he averaged over 260 yards and 1 TD per game. In the last 11... when he was supposed to be "healthy", he had a 90 passer rating and averaged the same thing! He averaged over 260 yards and 1 TD (though he did throw more Int's). Last year, his numbers were down... period. Why? Because he threw a lot. I don't really see Graham doing much more than he did last year because I don't think they'll throw more or throw to him more. For the most part, for a what I consider a top 5 TE, I want 12 ppg. Last year, Graham did that 6 times... but he also got single digits 6 times. Graham is going of the board (at this point in time), as the #5 TE and going at pick 61. For that price, no way. The production isn't there. The only reason he averaeged 12 ppg last year was because he had those two (30 and 22), big games. If they were even 15, his ppg average is under 11. There were 10 TE's that averaged 10 ppg or better. I'd rather wait 5 to 7 rounds to take one of them. Graham getting similar to last year at 65/900/5 (11.5 fpg), is a reasonable expectation. I'm fine with that in round 9 or 10... not round 6.

 

 

I believe that Carolina will be better this year than last... though I still don't think they'll be all that good, maybe 8-8 / 7-9. I see no reason why he can't eclipse 75/1100/7 this year (14.2 fpg). Last year, he eclipsed 12 points 9 times (and 10 the year before). Now he did get single digits 6 times each of the last 2 years, like Graham, but Oslen's upside is way higher. At only a 10 pick difference in adp, I'm taking Olsen at pick 51 every time over Graham at 61.

 

Great post. I'm in agreement on Olsen. Higher floor player in my mind.

 

I'm not sure when Wilson was injured but when I double checked your stats they looked correct. If you take weeks 1-5 and then 5-17 Wilson wasn't great.

 

 

The 3 weeks after his bye 6-7-8 he didnt' have any TD pass. Nada.

 

If you want to say he became 'healthy' from that point on weeks 9-16, I toss out 17 as it can skew data with teams sitting people, and he was the # 2 QB to only Rodgers.

 

 

 

Long story short. I buy the conclusion on Olsen but I don't think Seattle projects as a low scoring-running team next year or that Wilson doesn't have upside.

 

It think it's arguable with with a healthy lockette and graham, Baldwin, PRich, PRocise might be the best core of pass catchers he's had in his career.

[Kopy 489]

Game 1. Suh steps on Wilsons left ankle and he ends up with the high ankle sprain.

Game 3. A 49er defender (can't remember who). Between going down bad, plus the tackle, tears his right knee mcl.

You guy seriously think you're not buying Wilson being hurt affecting his play?

 

If you're "really not buying injuries" . Whatever, I'm not gonna come here to try to change your mind.

But I will come here to say that's the f0cking stupidest post I've read this off season here at fftoday. And that includes the geek board.

At minimum he hould have missed week 4 against the jets, then had the week 5 bye, a no pratice week 6 before trying that game. Essentially he gets 3 weeks off to try to go. Yet he doesn't miss 1 practice, never mind game.

Did you fellas look at his feet? He was wrapped up like a mummy.

The 4th quarter against Miami. He would jump and throw, because he couldn't plant.

 

Guess we're not buying his injuries as an excuse though!!!!

[Kopy 489]

And by no means am I trying so say Grahm is clearly better than Olsen. Nor is it a knock on Olsen. I love the guy.

Hell, put him #1 if you want.

But TBay's not buying a hurt excuse, just kinda made me throw up alittle.

Guess we found our new Elf.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

Game 1. Suh steps on Wilsons left ankle and he ends up with the high ankle sprain.

Game 3. A 49er defender (can't remember who). Between going down bad, plus the tackle, tears his right knee mcl.

You guy seriously think you're not buying Wilson being hurt affecting his play?

 

If you're "really not buying injuries" . Whatever, I'm not gonna come here to try to change your mind.

But I will come here to say that's the f0cking stupidest post I've read this off season here at fftoday. And that includes the geek board.

At minimum he hould have missed week 4 against the jets, then had the week 5 bye, a no pratice week 6 before trying that game. Essentially he gets 3 weeks off to try to go. Yet he doesn't miss 1 practice, never mind game.

Did you fellas look at his feet? He was wrapped up like a mummy.

The 4th quarter against Miami. He would jump and throw, because he couldn't plant.

 

Guess we're not buying his injuries as an excuse though!!!!

 

 

No, it's about the correlation to his health and Graham's performance. Lets take games 9-17 as Matt noted where (from a fantasy perspective), Wilson was the #2 QB in fantasy. Aside from Week 9 where Graham had 8/103/2, he averaged 3/47/0.5 which for fantasy purposes rates out at 10.7 ppg. So, in a season where Wilson threw more passes than in any other year, Graham wasn't special. He's a top 10 TE, but that's a low end TE1. I'm not taking a guy in the top 5/6 rounds when I can get similar production in rounds 10/12.

 

My point with Wilson was that if you buy Wilson's injury having an impact on Graham's performance, the numbers don't agree. There's nothing about Wilson's injury/play that tells you that Graham should be better this year than last year if Wilson plays all 16 games healthy. Basically, Graham is playing at his ceiling and it's unlikely that his numbers improve. In fact, a healthier Wilson probably impacts Graham to the negative more than the positive.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,563]

rather have a stud WR/RB in the 4th and take Hunter Henry later

[himmystyles 29]

rather have a stud WR/RB in the 4th and take Hunter Henry later

What if it was Kelce?

[redsrback 30]

Projection for McCaffrey here is 47 receptions, how does this not get mentioned in all your analysis about Olsen.

[Kopy 489]

What if it was Kelce?

Man crush here on Kelce, I'd take him all day, eveyday.

[wizbang 10]

No, it's about the correlation to his health and Graham's performance. Lets take games 9-17 as Matt noted where (from a fantasy perspective), Wilson was the #2 QB in fantasy. Aside from Week 9 where Graham had 8/103/2, he averaged 3/47/0.5 which for fantasy purposes rates out at 10.7 ppg. So, in a season where Wilson threw more passes than in any other year, Graham wasn't special. He's a top 10 TE, but that's a low end TE1. I'm not taking a guy in the top 5/6 rounds when I can get similar production in rounds 10/12.

 

My point with Wilson was that if you buy Wilson's injury having an impact on Graham's performance, the numbers don't agree. There's nothing about Wilson's injury/play that tells you that Graham should be better this year than last year if Wilson plays all 16 games healthy. Basically, Graham is playing at his ceiling and it's unlikely that his numbers improve. In fact, a healthier Wilson probably impacts Graham to the negative more than the positive.

This is a great analysis if you believe Graham was 100% last year, which he was not. Another poster said it's a preference situation between Olsen and Graham. I don't see it that way. I think you're betting on Cam versus Wilson mostly. With a healthy Cam, Olsen puts up first half of 2016 numbers (stud). With a healthy Wilson, Graham isn't likely to out perform that. McCaffrey is just as likely to help Olsen by drawing LB/S attention (Jonathan Stewart scares nobody in the flat).

 

I'd also like to comment on the poster who wants a RB/WR stud in the fourth. That's fine if you like a specific player but going by history of point differentials, you are FAR more likely to benefit from taking Olsen versus a guy like Michael Crabtree (who is being mocked in the 4th).