2013 Season Outliers

[Matt Mueller 146]

I posted a comment about Garcon in a trade thread and it got me thinking a bit about players who may have had a unique set of circumstances in 2013 who possibly over produced...and who could potentially fall back to earth some.

The two I'll bring up are Garcon and Gordon.

First my comment on Garcon:

Garcon led the league with 182 targets. Andre was 2nd with 181 and as a point of reference D. Thomas was 12th with 142.

Link

In the Kubiak-Shanny type of system Garcon essentially played Johnson's role.

Jordan Reed missed a lot of time and the redskins don't really have an established #2 WR.

RG3 wasn't himself as a runner last year...he was forced to pass more both from a scheme standpoint but also from a health-explosion standpoint.

Point being Garcon was kind of in a perfect storm.

Now moving forward I think the risk, from a targets standpoint, is that Shannys out, Reed is supposed to be back and RG3's knee has had another year to gain stability and if I'm playing Redskins front office I'm trying to add talent at WR...but that's speculation.

I love Garcon as a player but I think he could very well fall back some from being 1st in the league in targets.


My 2nd player is Josh Gordon. I don't have as much commentary on him but in my opinion Cleveland was shopping him last year. He got targeted on a ton of deep balls late in games and as much as I think that was the Browns trying to constantly come back in games...I think there was a concerted effort to feature Gordon for a trade.

Now he's certainly going to be a 'featured' player in the offense moving forward...but in the back of my mind I'm taking his total production with a bit of an * simply b/c that was my view on the situation.

My opinion on Garcon is more thought out. My opinion on Gordon more a gut feeling.


You guys agree-disagree with any of this?

Have any players you want to nominate?

Could be guys who didn't produce...and who may in 2014...instead of me looking at guys who possibly 'over produced.'

Any thoughts appreciated.

P.S. I really like both players. I just think there situation in 2013 might not be exactly the same in 2014 and is worth accounting for.

[weepaws 2,451]

I posted a comment about Garcon in a trade thread and it got me thinking a bit about players who may have had a unique set of circumstances in 2013 who possibly over produced...and who could potentially fall back to earth some.

 

The two I'll bring up are Garcon and Gordon.

 

First my comment on Garcon:

 

Garcon led the league with 182 targets. Andre was 2nd with 181 and as a point of reference D. Thomas was 12th with 142.

 

http://fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.ph ... order=DESC

 

In the Kubiak-Shanny type of system Garcon essentially played Johnson's role.

 

Jordan Reed missed a lot of time and the redskins don't really have an established #2 WR.

 

RG3 wasn't himself as a runner last year...he was forced to pass more both from a scheme standpoint but also from a health-explosion standpoint.

 

Point being Garcon was kind of in a perfect storm.

 

Now moving forward I think the risk, from a targets standpoint, is that Shannys out, Reed is supposed to be back and RG3's knee has had another year to gain stability and if I'm playing Redskins front office I'm trying to add talent at WR...but that's speculation.

 

I love Garcon as a player but I think he could very well fall back some from being 1st in the league in targets.

 

 

My 2nd player is Josh Gordon. I don't have as much commentary on him but in my opinion Cleveland was shopping him last year. He got targeted on a ton of deep balls late in games and as much as I think that was the Browns trying to constantly come back in games...I think there was a concerted effort to feature Gordon for a trade.

 

Now he's certainly going to be a 'featured' player in the offense moving forward...but in the back of my mind I'm taking his total production with a bit of an * simply b/c that was my view on the situation.

 

My opinion on Garcon is more thought out. My opinion on Gordon more a gut feeling.

 

 

You guys agree-disagree with any of this?

 

Have any players you want to nominate?

 

Could be guys who didn't produce...and who may in 2014...instead of me looking at guys who possibly 'over produced.'

 

Any thoughts appreciated.

 

P.S. I really like both players. I just think there situation in 2013 might not be exactly the same in 2014 and is worth accounting for.

amen brother . every ranking is a gut feeling imo . who knew that garcon would have the season he had after he himself said he would not even be 100% for the reg season during the preseason . and gordan yeah who saw that coming and from a team with no qb . so i agree its all a gut feeling imo

[giraldi02 470]

Philadelphia Eagles players not named LeSean McCoy and Nick Foles.

DeSean Jackson, Maclin/Cooper, Ertz (could or couldn't be sleeper in re-drafts in 2014). I won't have them on my roster most likely next season due to people thinking they'll replicate those numbers and trying to take them ahead of where they should go. I worry about Jackson's dedication and willingness to go after tough catches since his contract complaining again.

 

 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I think Gordon will come back to Earth. He had so many big plays which are hard to sustain each year. I think Gordons numbers depend on his schedule too for next year. If the Browns play a lot good pass defenses i could see a large drop in production. I dont trust any qb on their roster and gordon is really the only threat beside cameron. If their pass sched is weak i could see a similar, slightly less productive year next year.

 

Garcon is on a team with better talent around him. He was featured for a reason last year, he is their best offensive weapon after rg3. I think/hope rg3 makes a large improvement from last year in his overall game. This should open up the field more for garcon to be the big play threat he can be.

 

I am encouraged by the volume of catches he had in the short to intermediate range. The big play just wasnt there for him last year, which is a big part of his game. If those two can really get the chemistry going i see great things ahead.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ Great points about RG3 opening up the offense. Maybe Garcon doesn't catch as many passes but hits on more big plays and tds and it all evens out...or he builds on 2013.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I based a lot of my feeling on Gordon on just that feelings. I wanted to dive into his game log to see what I found.

Some interesting takeaways

43 yard td :59 seconds left in the game

80 yard td

95 yard td 3:55 left in the game

1 yard td 3:13 left in the game

74 yard td

39 yard td

37 yard td

47 yard td

21 yard td

Thats only 1 redzone td. 2 huge plays. And 3 tds in the last 5 minutes of the game.

[MDC 5,875]

Gordon may come back down to earth for a lot of reasons but I think the idea that the GM was shopping him, told the coach and the coach told his carousel of QBs to target him or dialed up more Gordon-friendly plays is pretty far fetched. He was the best playmaker on a really bad team end of story.

[Vikings4ever 496]

Also, Gordon lost a fine offensive coordinator in Norv Turner.

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

I agree with Garçon's production next season but Gordon is a Top 5 WR in the League.

 

I'm not sure what statistics/circumstances would suggest otherwise...

He is an absolute beast surrounded by mediocrity.

[Pecos Rattlers 5]

I agree that Garcon's targets will drop due to the reasons you mention ... yet RG3 was horrificly inaccurate. I had Garcon last year & lost a number of games where RG3 overthrew/didn't see/totally misthrew multiple passes to Garcon :/ There were games with stat lines like ... 16 targets, 6 catches & it wasn't because Garcon was dropping them.

 

If RG3's better/more confidant/better coached next year then Garcon could produce about the same yardage (TDs always high variance), even with a drop in targets.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,565]

Also, Gordon lost a fine offensive coordinator in Norv Turner.

 

this, we dont know what the new guy is gonna do, I havent even paid attention to who Clev OC is now, but Turner throws deep more than any OC in football

[Vikings4ever 496]

 

this, we dont know what the new guy is gonna do, I havent even paid attention to who Clev OC is now, but Turner throws deep more than any OC in football

The Rat Jr.

[DrG 94]

Big plays and high tds without a lot of red zone targets suggest regression to the mean. So do injuries to surrounding players.

 

It is easier to spot players who may regress than potential breakouts but I am high on Minnesota due to schedule and the Turner Effect.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

for Gordon you can look at Jordy Nelson of 2012. Hes a guy i was staying away from at his ADP that year because his 2011 success was on an unsustainable deep ball %. Granted he also dealt with injuries in 2012 but same concept. Gordon will still be an awesome player but I can get on board with the normal regression on so many big plays.

 

Edelman is a guy i look at, 1. He may not be back in New England and 2. like Amendola, he has not really been a model of health over his career. 3. Gronk should be back? maybe? 4. Possible full season out of Vereen. So I don't see as many balls to go around even if he does return to New england AND stay healthy.

[Matt Mueller 146]

This was why I highlighted Garçon. Great player, good situation but he's probably not going to come close to leading the league in targets again.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

This was why I highlighted Garçon. Great player, good situation but he's probably not going to come close to leading the league in targets again.

Yeah there is no way he will. It doesnt mean his fantasy ppg are going to drop though. I have said it in a few spots, he can be a very good big play wr. This can only take pressure off of him and open up the coverage on him down field.

 

I also said roberts might end up with the underneath routes wide the fock open, along with Helu in that area. If that line can block for griffin he may be contending for top qb this year. He has to buck the regression he had last year too.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Bump for the suspension.