So wat is everyone really doing with Zeke?

[kujerry 9]

I know we had a tread about Zeke and if his suspension was right or not but know what's everyone doing. Keeping him in ur keeper leagues. Still drafting as a top five and hoping for a reduction or injunction and still maybe plays this year or just keeping away.

 

https://advancedsportslogic.com/nfl/1229-why-ezekiel-elliott-is-still-top-5

 

Now I have the 14th pick in a 14 team PPR league. If I keep him I lose my first rounder then pick first in the 2nd. I was then thinking of putting him back and draft normal in the first then take Zeke in the second moving his keeper value to the second round for next season. Knowing my league someone will take a shot on him coming back in the third.

 

Now if someone is thinking that it could go to court and be a whole year before he serves his time they might snake me for him in the first round.

 

Thinking of just biting the bullet and keeping him as my keeper and hope he files an injunction (like Brady) and gets to play this year. Hell I have lost a first round pick to injurie i.e. Keenan last year.

 

What do u guys think and what are u all planning on with Zeke now.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I'm really torn on where to pull the trigger. I can't justify a 1st or 2nd on a guy missing half the fantasy season. So around maybe rnd 4 I'd think about it, then follow with McFadden right after.

[kujerry 9]

I'm rolling the dice and keeping him in the first as my keeper and hope that it goes to court and draft Morris as I think he's better than McFadden.

[Ray_T 587]

honestly, If I could pick up DMC on the cheap, I'd probably buy into Zeke still.

 

in a keeper league I'd be trying to pry him out of the hands of a disgruntled owner.

 

Not sure what to offer, but I think if you offered someone like Melvin Gordon, there would be takers in some leagues.

[seafoam1 1,878]

I would wait til last second to decide. Also if he has the 6 games this year, what has he done to show he stay out of trouble with all this time off? maybe trade him for somebody's second round (or third, whatever) draft pick this year.

[American Chewy 98]

i'm likely to have a late 1st pick which means i'll probably be staring at him at the 3-4th round swing pick. about the earliest he could be considered imo. i'll probably still pass if only because i dont even know who to handcuff to him for those first 6 games.

[Ray_T 587]

i'm likely to have a late 1st pick which means i'll probably be staring at him at the 3-4th round swing pick. about the earliest he could be considered imo. i'll probably still pass if only because i dont even know who to handcuff to him for those first 6 games.

Darren McFadden.

 

ran for about 1000 yards in 10 or 12 games (I forget which) the year before they drafted Zeke.

 

he's the guy who will carry the mail while zeke is out and I think he will do just fine.

[Kent 228]

If I get the 3rd or 4th pick I'm not taking him. Happy to have McCoy or Freeman there. So I guess I'm not taking him unless he fell to the 3rd round, which still won't happen.

[ralphster 274]

I take zeke happily in the late 1st or early 2nd if I can get him, even in redraft. gotta cuff him (I think Alf) but he's a difference maker.

 

edit: I have him for 2 more years in a contract dynasty and would not trade him for Gordon.

[redsrback 30]

I think this board has him spot on, the 12th RB off the board before you get in a gray area of guessing. Way i have it after this many are gone i will take him.

 

11 RBs off the board

 

8 receivers off the board

 

1 TE off the board

 

By this time all players are about the same value in my opinion and only stud is Elliott which you can sit on. I can draft 2 QBs later and get more value then i can with Aaron Rodgers so I don't include QBs.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

I think this board has him spot on, the 12th RB off the board before you get in a gray area of guessing. Way i have it after this many are gone i will take him.

 

11 RBs off the board

 

8 receivers off the board

 

1 TE off the board

 

By this time all players are about the same value in my opinion and only stud is Elliott which you can sit on. I can draft 2 QBs later and get more value then i can with Aaron Rodgers so I don't include QBs.

So you're going to draft Elliott and two QBs? That's sounds like a terrible strategy. You'll have two bench spots taken up and will have a huge headache during bye weeks.

[BufordT 371]

I'll be playing the percentages here or what I think are the percentages based on some reading.

 

85% chance this gets reduced to 4 games.

14% chance this stays at 6 games.

1% chance they try (and succeed) to make a mockery of the NFL (injunctions and other legal stuff i don't understand) and he doesn't serve any suspension until 2018.

 

I think this gets reduced to 4 games and he's still worth a Top 5 pick.

 

but you can also make a case he's a DND due to his inability to stay out of trouble.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

I hope he falls to 3rd round. I will draft RB heavy as I like to start an RB in the flex, and we only start 2 WR. Will be nice putting Zeke in at Flex or RB2.

 

If I get Zeke I dont consider McFadden a must own as I will have other startable Rbs. I will target him though a little later than most may target him

[wizbang 10]

If drafting today, I'd take him in the first. After Brown but before McCoy with Julio being about break even. That is entirely because I expect either a reduced suspension (3/4 games) or it will drag into 2018. Thankfully, I don't draft for another few weeks. I don't expect much clarity but there will be enough takes to make a more reasoned gamble. Bottom line is half first rounders bust due to any number of issues. I like going high ceiling so if my guy doesn't bust he's going to be a championship winning level stud. Zeke is that.

[Ray_T 587]

I hope he falls to 3rd round. I will draft RB heavy as I like to start an RB in the flex, and we only start 2 WR. Will be nice putting Zeke in at Flex or RB2.

 

If I get Zeke I dont consider McFadden a must own as I will have other startable Rbs. I will target him though a little later than most may target him

Well, this guy will be around during the fantasy playoffs (the most important time)

 

If you manage to grab one of the top 3 early in round 1 and Zeke is sitting there in round 2, how do you not pick him?

 

could you imagine having both Zeke and David johnson in your lineup?

 

in theory, this guy should never drop into round 3 of any redraft.

[wizbang 10]

Well, this guy will be around during the fantasy playoffs (the most important time)

 

If you manage to grab one of the top 3 early in round 1 and Zeke is sitting there in round 2, how do you not pick him?

 

could you imagine having both Zeke and David johnson in your lineup?

 

in theory, this guy should never drop into round 3 of any redraft.

Yup, did this last year with Zeke in round 1 and Bell (suspended) in the second. I was destroying teams down the stretch.

[stonewall 647]

I just can't envision him getting outta the 2nd round in any redrafts.....at least not if I am drafting.

[Gepetto 979]

Well, this guy will be around during the fantasy playoffs (the most important time)

 

If you manage to grab one of the top 3 early in round 1 and Zeke is sitting there in round 2, how do you not pick him?

 

could you imagine having both Zeke and David johnson in your lineup?

 

in theory, this guy should never drop into round 3 of any redraft.

 

Don't have to imagine, I had Zeke, David Johnson and LeSean McCoy and started all 3 every week (except byes and injuries to McCoy) last year, and only lost one game.

[sirensong 111]

Darren McFadden.

 

ran for about 1000 yards in 10 or 12 games (I forget which) the year before they drafted Zeke.

 

he's the guy who will carry the mail while zeke is out and I think he will do just fine.

 

caveat emptor. when they broke DMC's 2015 stats down, it became evident that most of his yardage came during trash time. IIRC, his average was like 3.2ypc when the score was within a FG or DAL was ahead.

 

DMC is better as a relief/changeup/3rd down back, and morris is better as a bell cow with 18+ carries. IMO this will be the most likely arrangement come week 1.

[Ray_T 587]

 

caveat emptor. when they broke DMC's 2015 stats down, it became evident that most of his yardage came during trash time. IIRC, his average was like 3.2ypc when the score was within a FG or DAL was ahead.

 

DMC is better as a relief/changeup/3rd down back, and morris is better as a bell cow with 18+ carries. IMO this will be the most likely arrangement come week 1.

there is a reason why he is not the starter here or elsewhere.

 

I do think running behind this line he will put up serviceable numbers while Zeke is out. He would be the natural handcuff but there are others out there. They will just cost more to acquire.

[Kent 228]

 

caveat emptor. when they broke DMC's 2015 stats down, it became evident that most of his yardage came during trash time. IIRC, his average was like 3.2ypc when the score was within a FG or DAL was ahead.

 

DMC is better as a relief/changeup/3rd down back, and morris is better as a bell cow with 18+ carries. IMO this will be the most likely arrangement come week 1.

Alf sucks. No way they give him 18 attempts after watching him do nothing.

[JagFan 97]

And this is why we are all addicted to this game...FF not the real thing.

 

The one thing I haven't read in this thread, unless I missed it which is possible, are the O-Line changes for the Cowboys this off-season. Yes they kept the 3 Pro-Bowler's, but they still lost 40%, or 2/5 of the line. Looking at pre-season O-Line rankings I'm seeing them projected anywhere from #1 - #9. 2016 they finished #2 I believe. I certainly agree that the talent lost vs the talent replacing is probably a wash. But what isn't a wash regardless of talent is continuity. Let's face it, the O-Line isn't about individuals, but the whole unit working as a single living organism. That has to factor in here.

 

Okay, so if I'm ranking players based on the floor (and you almost have to in the first three rounds to be successful) then you have to use the ranking of 9th best O-Line as your baseline. After the 2016 regular season ended the overall #9 ranked O-Line was Baltimore. They averaged 91.4 yards rushing per game. And yes I realize you have to factor in rush attempts, and all the other things that factor into success running the ball. But assuming a drop in O-Line production, a 4-6 game suspension, and the always possible sophomore slump for both Zeke and Prescott...I'd have to say that you can't waste a top 3 round pick here.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

And this is why we are all addicted to this game...FF not the real thing.

 

The one thing I haven't read in this thread, unless I missed it which is possible, are the O-Line changes for the Cowboys this off-season. Yes they kept the 3 Pro-Bowler's, but they still lost 40%, or 2/5 of the line. Looking at pre-season O-Line rankings I'm seeing them projected anywhere from #1 - #9. 2016 they finished #2 I believe. I certainly agree that the talent lost vs the talent replacing is probably a wash. But what isn't a wash regardless of talent is continuity. Let's face it, the O-Line isn't about individuals, but the whole unit working as a single living organism. That has to factor in here.

 

Okay, so if I'm ranking players based on the floor (and you almost have to in the first three rounds to be successful) then you have to use the ranking of 9th best O-Line as your baseline. After the 2016 regular season ended the overall #9 ranked O-Line was Baltimore. They averaged 91.4 yards rushing per game. And yes I realize you have to factor in rush attempts, and all the other things that factor into success running the ball. But assuming a drop in O-Line production, a 4-6 game suspension, and the always possible sophomore slump for both Zeke and Prescott...I'd have to say that you can't waste a top 3 round pick here.

While I agree regression has to be factored into Elliot's value, when available, he's still a top three back. The comparison to Baltimore is a bit unfair. I understand that you are you simply using them as a baseline, but you're assuming Elliot is on the same level as the Baltimore backs last year. Even if Elliot isn't the most talented back in the world, you're comparing him to a committee headlined by Terrance West. I still think points per game regresses from the 17-18 ppg in standard, but remains at an elite 14-15. If you factor that in with say 8 ppg, from a guy who can be had later in the draft and put up serviceable numbers in Zeke's absence, you're still looking at 190-200 points from what could be had at an RB 2 price now. That's also assuming his suspension takes place this year, which I'm not sure is a safe assumption right now.

 

Where he goes, depends as much on peoples opinion of Gurley, Fourenette, Crowell etc. as it does Elliot. I'm in a keeper league and have Howard (9th) and Murray (3rd) as my keepers. I'll probably be staring at Green, Elliot, Gurley and Fournette, when it's my turn. Still considering all of them.

[Mr Neil 63]

Rod Smith is the guy to own as the cuff

[JagFan 97]

While I agree regression has to be factored into Elliot's value, when available, he's still a top three back. The comparison to Baltimore is a bit unfair. I understand that you are you simply using them as a baseline, but you're assuming Elliot is on the same level as the Baltimore backs last year. Even if Elliot isn't the most talented back in the world, you're comparing him to a committee headlined by Terrance West. I still think points per game regresses from the 17-18 ppg in standard, but remains at an elite 14-15. If you factor that in with say 8 ppg, from a guy who can be had later in the draft and put up serviceable numbers in Zeke's absence, you're still looking at 190-200 points from what could be had at an RB 2 price now. That's also assuming his suspension takes place this year, which I'm not sure is a safe assumption right now.

 

Where he goes, depends as much on peoples opinion of Gurley, Fourenette, Crowell etc. as it does Elliot. I'm in a keeper league and have Howard (9th) and Murray (3rd) as my keepers. I'll probably be staring at Green, Elliot, Gurley and Fournette, when it's my turn. Still considering all of them.

Very valid view of the situation. It is very possible to shake out as you are projecting. I'm not going to take the time to go dig out the stats, but just from recent memory I recall Forte, D Martin, and Gurley being projected as high 1st round draft picks heading into their sophomore seasons based on their rookie year....maybe none top 3, but certainly high. The results probably ruined a lot of FF seasons. I just don't think it takes much of a change in situation to cause a huge change in production.

 

Based on your keeper situation you are in a very fortunate situation where you can certainly take a high risk player with great upside...it probably won't ruin your season if they bust. Good job putting yourself in that position.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

Very valid view of the situation. It is very possible to shake out as you are projecting. I'm not going to take the time to go dig out the stats, but just from recent memory I recall Forte, D Martin, and Gurley being projected as high 1st round draft picks heading into their sophomore seasons based on their rookie year....maybe none top 3, but certainly high. The results probably ruined a lot of FF seasons. I just don't think it takes much of a change in situation to cause a huge change in production.

 

Based on your keeper situation you are in a very fortunate situation where you can certainly take a high risk player with great upside...it probably won't ruin your season if they bust. Good job putting yourself in that position.

I completely agree that I could just as easily be wrong on this topic as I am right, and my keepers change the amount of risk I can take. With everything going on and the O-line changes, Zeke could fall victim to the sophomore slump (as could Howard for me,) but just about everyone has a downside, with most not having his championship winning upside. We only have so much info to base our opinions on this time of year, it's just about trying to guess what is most likely to happen and that will vary for everyone. There will be plenty of early round busts this year, with Zeke you are forced to have a contingency plan in place, which really isn't the worst thing.

[zole2112 5]

My draft is Aug 29th. We did a March Madness bracket to win your draft choice position and I came in second so I have second choice of draft positions. 12 team league with standard scoring with 1 keeper, my keeper is David Johnson for my 3rd round pick. I was planning to pick 2nd and choose either Bell or Zeke but now I'm sure the #1 pick will be Bell and I don't really want to pick 2nd (We start QB/2RB/3WR/FLEX/K/DEF with 4 bench, I am planning to draft RB/RB/RB taking me through the 4th round then WR/QB/WR)

 

I am now thinking to choose to draft 6th instead of choosing 2nd with my plan being to choose Shady or possibly even Zeke with the 6th pick. thoughts?

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

I'd take Elliott in the 2nd. Last year he averaged 20.46 ppg. If he does that again, that's 204.6 points for the season. Todd Gurley ranked 15th in RB's last year with 200.2 ppg. Missing the first 7 weeks of the fantasy season means nothing to me because I believe I can win about half of those games without Elliott.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

My draft is Aug 29th. We did a March Madness bracket to win your draft choice position and I came in second so I have second choice of draft positions. 12 team league with standard scoring with 1 keeper, my keeper is David Johnson for my 3rd round pick. I was planning to pick 2nd and choose either Bell or Zeke but now I'm sure the #1 pick will be Bell and I don't really want to pick 2nd (We start QB/2RB/3WR/FLEX/K/DEF with 4 bench, I am planning to draft RB/RB/RB taking me through the 4th round then WR/QB/WR)

 

I am now thinking to choose to draft 6th instead of choosing 2nd with my plan being to choose Shady or possibly even Zeke with the 6th pick. thoughts?

 

Take the 2nd pick and take Elliott. Having Johnson will carry you in the first half of the season and Elliott will win you the championship in the second half. Don't over think this, it's an easy choice.

 

You should be able to get a guy like Terrelle Pryor with your second pick, then guys like Landry, Tate, M. Bryant, Gillislee, and Abdulah in the 4th and 5th rounds. Starting Johnson, Gillislee, Pryor, and Tate will get you at least 3 or 4 wins in the first 7 weeks.

[the newb 23]

 

Don't have to imagine, I had Zeke, David Johnson and LeSean McCoy and started all 3 every week (except byes and injuries to McCoy) last year, and only lost one game.

hmm...Elliott lasted until the last pick of the 2nd Rd? How many teams?

[Gepetto 979]

hmm...Elliott lasted until the last pick of the 2nd Rd? How many teams?

 

Auction league with David Johnson as my RB keeper. It's 8 teams with 25 roster spots and several flex spots and 2 QBs 2 TEs 2 Defenses 2 kickers So number of players drafted ends up being about the same as a 12 team 16 rounder.

[tanatastic 2,061]

4th after AB. Zeke won't miss any games. Just like Brady didn't that one year when I got him super late. His appeal will drag into next season.

[Ray_T 587]

4th after AB. Zeke won't miss any games. Just like Brady didn't that one year when I got him super late. His appeal will drag into next season.

Certainly a possibility.

 

Personally, If he makes it to me in the second round of any redraft I'd pick him right away. NO questions asked.

 

I just wouldnt spend a top 5 pick for him.

[sirensong 111]

mind the mathews situation.