Auction Strategy

[joneo 529]

This year, I'm targeting a QB that isn't "sexy". Should easily be able to get Winston for half the price of Brees and Rodgers. With that, I'll nominate QBs in the first couple rounds to get the other teams to commit to a QB and get their $$ off the board.

 

Also, remember Bell went cheaper last year because of a 3 game suspension. I got him at a reduced rate and cleaned house during the playoffs. This year Zeke should be there for a steal.

 

Anyone have other tips?

[Oriole8159 86]

I disagree; if anything you should do the exact opposite and want MORE QBs on the board later in the draft, as you should be able to get a very good one for $2 after teams have already spent most of their cap.

 

If there's more on the board and teams are already low on funds, just wait for the $1 nominations to start and bid over that for $2. It may not get you Winston, but it should be able to get you an every week starter still at dirt cheap price.

Most other teams will have a hard time going $3 even when there's still good QBs still on the board and their funds are tight.

[seafoam1 1,878]

This year, I'm targeting a QB that isn't "sexy". Should easily be able to get Winston for half the price of Brees and Rodgers. With that, I'll nominate QBs in the first couple rounds to get the other teams to commit to a QB and get their $$ off the board.

 

Also, remember Bell went cheaper last year because of a 3 game suspension. I got him at a reduced rate and cleaned house during the playoffs. This year Zeke should be there for a steal.

 

Anyone have other tips?

If you're in a keeper league Elliot may not dip to much. But keep an eye. I just hope I don't have to make the decision honestly. I hope someone bids well more than I am willing to go.

 

One other thing I found extremely helpful is to have my tier rankings in front of me. 3 years ago there was a huge drop off at WR between tier 1 and 2 and I realized almost too late that there was only 1 WR left in tier 1. So I paid up for Jordy Nelson and Jordy Nelson ending up helping me win it all.

 

I find it easy to get lost in the draft if not having this in front of me, rather than just checking off a list of players.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

I disagree; if anything you should do the exact opposite and want MORE QBs on the board later in the draft, as you should be able to get a very good one for $2 after teams have already spent most of their cap.

 

If there's more on the board and teams are already low on funds, just wait for the $1 nominations to start and bid over that for $2. It may not get you Winston, but it should be able to get you an every week starter still at dirt cheap price.

Most other teams will have a hard time going $3 even when there's still good QBs still on the board and their funds are tight.

 

I think I have to agree with the OP. Throw out the QB's as much as you can because if there's a lot on the board, then everyone is getting bargains because no one has big money to spend. Get people spending on the guys you don't want. Not only will there be money spent, there will also be people who won't be buying another one.

[Oriole8159 86]

 

I think I have to agree with the OP. Throw out the QB's as much as you can because if there's a lot on the board, then everyone is getting bargains because no one has big money to spend. Get people spending on the guys you don't want. Not only will there be money spent, there will also be people who won't be buying another one.

 

Although I agree you should throw out guys that you don't want to get others spending, I've done this multiple times and it works great. The OP said he'd be fine with getting Winston for half the price as Brees/Rodgers, which would mean he's still looking at paying $15-$20 for Winston.

 

That's not a good buy when you can hold off and still get a good starter for $2. Remember in the last two years how many QBs have come out of nowhere to become Top 10 fantasy starters? 2 years ago it was Cousins or Fitzpatrick, last year it was Ryan, Mariotta, Stafford or Prescott.

 

If you're not going to spend top dollar for QBs, then just spend $2 max and play the waiver wire. Spending $15 though for a lottery ticket is the worst investment, and the best way to make sure you can still get a great $2 QB is to make sure there's more options on the board.

 

Just my opinion though.

[kutulu 1,541]

Guys in my league don't value QBs much so this strategy won't really work

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

 

Although I agree you should throw out guys that you don't want to get others spending, I've done this multiple times and it works great. The OP said he'd be fine with getting Winston for half the price as Brees/Rodgers, which would mean he's still looking at paying $15-$20 for Winston.

 

That's not a good buy when you can hold off and still get a good starter for $2. Remember in the last two years how many QBs have come out of nowhere to become Top 10 fantasy starters? 2 years ago it was Cousins or Fitzpatrick, last year it was Ryan, Mariotta, Stafford or Prescott.

 

If you're not going to spend top dollar for QBs, then just spend $2 max and play the waiver wire. Spending $15 though for a lottery ticket is the worst investment, and the best way to make sure you can still get a great $2 QB is to make sure there's more options on the board.

 

Just my opinion though.

 

Yeah, I just didn't take him a literal as you... maybe I was wrong for doing that. I just think he meant it as getting similar production at a bargain price.

[joneo 529]

My point is to have other owners commit to a starting QB early which would take money out of their pockets and leave some good QBs for me at the cheaper price. Make them commit first.

[Oriole8159 86]

My point is to have other owners commit to a starting QB early which would take money out of their pockets and leave some good QBs for me at the cheaper price. Make them commit first.

okay, but I would say then too instead of looking for Winston (or comparable) at half price, just take it to the extreme and don't commit to spending more than $2 for your QB.

 

I personally think paying for a mid value QB like that is the worst investment possible, so keep the extra money to use towards other value picks, and then just find that gem during the season. I think there's alot to like in guys like Cousins, Wentz, Eli, Rivers, and they should hardly cost you anything. Heck, even Brian Hoyer or Sam Bradford could have some starting quality matchups in a pinch if needed.,

[NAn 39]

 

 

One other thing I found extremely helpful is to have my tier rankings in front of me. 3 years ago there was a huge drop off at WR between tier 1 and 2 and I realized almost too late that there was only 1 WR left in tier 1. So I paid up for Jordy Nelson and Jordy Nelson ending up helping me win it all.

 

I find it easy to get lost in the draft if not having this in front of me, rather than just checking off a list of players.

 

This.

 

I'll add....

related to above, is though it goes against traditional auction CW, is...early on in a draft, really only applicable to top tiers at each position, so maybe first round of bids if that...to actually put the top tier player/s you want out there right away.

Early on, as owners review their strageties, their percentages per position, etc. can be cautious, even gun-shy, with spending big on the top players. So the guy at top of 1st tier may go for say 58. but then guy at bottom of tier (say 4 in tier) actually will go for 65 b/c he's the last of the tier so a bidding war breaks out for that guy. So you can even get the better player for cheaper. Again as owners start to loosen up about their budget and spending it doesnt' work quite as well, but early can help.

 

Just like snake drafts, have a plan but be flexible.

 

Have an idea of overall costs for players, for help there see these links, not gospel by any means but some broad strokes:

 

https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/draftanalysis?tab=AD&pos=ALL&sort=DA_AP

 

http://fftoolbox.scout.com/football/2017/auction-values.cfm

 

But also know your league tendencies.

Kutulu cites how his league doesn't value QBs as much. Mine (2 leagues) have middling value for WRs...like even the top WRs will not go above say 40-50, but top RBs will go for 60+.

Good way to check this is to check draft values from past seasons. Some sites keep histories, I actually keep track myself year to year.

 

And owner tendencies.

A few owners in my leagues are always value guys, not spending on bigger names, a few will get 2-3 studs and deal with lower end players after, a few (like me) lean one way but will change on the fly. Tracking spending during draft coupled with knowing these tendencies can get you some bargains at times.

[SenatorRock 708]

I've found the best QB strategy is to either nominate and bid on a top 3 guy very early for the reasons stated in the post above. You will most likely get a discount because the market isn't set yet.

 

Alternatively, if you want a non-sexy QB then wait until late and pick up whoever you can for a $1 or $2. QBBC or grabbing someone off waivers week 1 has proven highly successful for me over the years.

 

Spending $10-$20 ($200 budget) on a mid grade guy just seems like a waste of cash that can be used on RB and WR depth.

[BLS 313]

The biggest thing I've learned in auctioning is there are some constants:

 

1. A few guys who won't even bid in the early rounds. No matter what. They save their money...but the catch is sometimes they end up spending $8 for Martellus Bennett as their last pick because they didn't utilize their money earlier and guys are so cheap towards the end they didn't need it all. It's a tricky game.

2. There's always a mad dash for premium players right away in the beginning. Then things settle down and either people are broke and have to wait, or the misers are still sitting on their money waiting to capitalize on the fact they have their entire budget remaining. THIS IS THE TIME TO BUY YOUR PLAYERS. There's always deals where you go "man, I can't believe this guy is only going for $6", etc. But nobody wants to bid. Buy, buy, buy.

3. Once the majority of the good RB/WR are gone, prices shoot back up in relation to their value because everyone is panicking that they don't have 2 starting WR or RB and people who were hoarding their cash start to overpay for guys in order to fill out a roster with known players. Mistake. Get your core pieces BEFORE this happens.

 

Be patient, but if you want a guy, stick to it. Unless the price goes ballistic, stick with it. There's nothing worse than getting a roster that doesn't look like anything you had in mind when you came to the 'draft'.

 

Last year I got Blount, M. Gordon, David Johnson, Ryan Mathews and Christine Michael for less than $60 of my $100 budget.

I hit homeruns on Blount, Gordon and of course DJ, but my WR's sucked (Marshall and D. Thomas) and I struggled all season.

 

Don't spend on a big name QB. Grab Eli Manning later on. Nobody loves the guy; every year it's the same old thing. Zero respect.

He'll be throwing a metric ton of TD's this year, and a bunch will go to Marshall in the RZ.

Or grab Phillip Rivers.

[Oriole8159 86]

Another thing I do is bid $2 in the early/mid rounds to get a top defense or kicker, depending on your preference.

You'll get laughed at but it's great value considering you'll spend $1 on your defense or kicker at some point anyway, so it's smart to be the first to the party.

 

Even if another guy bids over you for $3, that's a win also since it's an overpay on their end. Either you get a premium defense/kicker for only $1 more than you would anyway, or you get another guy to overpay; win/win.

[NPNG 4]

To me, the whole key in an auction is getting quality players early while still having enough $$ to be a player on value in the middle rounds and sleepers at the end. There is nothing worse than saving too much money for this strategy and you get few (if any) impact players at the beginning of the draft. Because of this, I pick a pool of RB's and a pool of WR's that I tell myself I MUST get at least one of each out of these groups. Our league also tries to take the bluffing out of bidding while speeding up the auction by allowing the bidding team to take $1 off of the winning bid IF they brought that player up.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

Another thing I do is bid $2 in the early/mid rounds to get a top defense or kicker, depending on your preference.

You'll get laughed at but it's great value considering you'll spend $1 on your defense or kicker at some point anyway, so it's smart to be the first to the party.

 

Even if another guy bids over you for $3, that's a win also since it's an overpay on their end. Either you get a premium defense/kicker for only $1 more than you would anyway, or you get another guy to overpay; win/win.

 

I have never found it worth while spending over $1 on a K or D. I'd rather spend that extra buck to get a top end player.

[Oriole8159 86]

 

I have never found it worth while spending over $1 on a K or D. I'd rather spend that extra buck to get a top end player.

I've found it doesn't make a difference having that extra buck.

By the end of the draft prob the last 3 or 4 picks are all $1 guys anyway and they're all still solid picks, so I've found it's worth paying for the defense early vs. an extra buck to go to your RB7 or WR5 that probably won't start anyways.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

To me, the whole key in an auction is getting quality players early while still having enough $$ to be a player on value in the middle rounds and sleepers at the end. There is nothing worse than saving too much money for this strategy and you get few (if any) impact players at the beginning of the draft. Because of this, I pick a pool of RB's and a pool of WR's that I tell myself I MUST get at least one of each out of these groups. Our league also tries to take the bluffing out of bidding while speeding up the auction by allowing the bidding team to take $1 off of the winning bid IF they brought that player up.

 

I've had money left over in auction drafts before and it's a terrible feeling. I keep thinking about the players I could have had if I would have just spent the money.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

I've found it doesn't make a difference having that extra buck.

By the end of the draft prob the last 3 or 4 picks are all $1 guys anyway and they're all still solid picks, so I've found it's worth paying for the defense early vs. an extra buck to go to your RB7 or WR5 that probably won't start anyways.

 

If you go back to look and see what players went for you'll see you may have been able to grab a player the was in a higher tier if all you did was spend an extra $1 but you didn't because he was already going over what you had him valued at. Sometimes being frugal can bite you in the butt in auctions.

[Oriole8159 86]

 

If you go back to look and see what players went for you'll see you may have been able to grab a player the was in a higher tier if all you did was spend an extra $1 but you didn't because he was already going over what you had him valued at. Sometimes being frugal can bite you in the butt in auctions.

It's not being frugal since I'm the guy that likes to buy multiple studs and then sit for like 30 picks while others spend down their money, before cashing in on the real value guys in the mid to late rds.

That's why I also like paying for a defense because it gives me another position that I can say I have the best at. That's well worth the extra $1 in my opinion.

 

Just my experiences.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

It's not being frugal since I'm the guy that likes to buy multiple studs and then sit for like 30 picks while others spend down their money, before cashing in on the real value guys in the mid to late rds.

That's why I also like paying for a defense because it gives me another position that I can say I have the best at. That's well worth the extra $1 in my opinion.

 

Just my experiences.

 

I've found that rarely the most expensive defense actually finishes as the best defense. I've always preferred to save that money and get a defense like the Patriots or the Vikings.

[Oriole8159 86]

 

I've found that rarely the most expensive defense actually finishes as the best defense. I've always preferred to save that money and get a defense like the Patriots or the Vikings.

 

fair enough.

I'd never pay for it in a snake draft certainly, but in an auction I've found that it can be nice to zig while others are zagging, and it's only costing you an extra buck. Plus at the end when everyone is using their last pick(s) on their K or Def, you'll know you have a very good shot at getting multiple players you like because you know what positions others will be focusing on.

 

I know its not for everyone, but I happen to like it.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

 

I've found that rarely the most expensive defense actually finishes as the best defense. I've always preferred to save that money and get a defense like the Patriots or the Vikings.

 

My plan for defenses are kind of a mix between the two. I'll put up defenses (and kickers), that I would be ok with for $1. If someone goes for $2, then they can have them, otherwise - I have my guy. Because it is almost impossible to predict a defense or kicker, I'll pretty much take anyone. People aren't going to buy backups, so there will be a ton available after the draft and if need be, I'll go pick up another guy.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

 

My plan for defenses are kind of a mix between the two. I'll put up defenses (and kickers), that I would be ok with for $1. If someone goes for $2, then they can have them, otherwise - I have my guy. Because it is almost impossible to predict a defense or kicker, I'll pretty much take anyone. People aren't going to buy backups, so there will be a ton available after the draft and if need be, I'll go pick up another guy.

 

Throwing out a K or D for $1 is always a smart move to me. You either get what you want or make others pay. I get Oriole's strategy and don't have a big issue with it. I especially like having the chance at making someone else pay $3 for a D or K.

[Ray_T 587]

 

My plan for defenses are kind of a mix between the two. I'll put up defenses (and kickers), that I would be ok with for $1. If someone goes for $2, then they can have them, otherwise - I have my guy. Because it is almost impossible to predict a defense or kicker, I'll pretty much take anyone. People aren't going to buy backups, so there will be a ton available after the draft and if need be, I'll go pick up another guy.

I like to grab these guys early too. People are less concerned about bidding you up early on players in this position, and if they do they usually overpay (and that's never a bad thing)

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

Man I love auction drafts! Just talking about it gets me pumped for my draft.

[Mike FF Today 607]

Just posted Doug's annual Art of the Auction piece. It's a good strategy blueprint to follow.

[Ray_T 587]

 

I have never found it worth while spending over $1 on a K or D. I'd rather spend that extra buck to get a top end player.

You should probably rethink that.

 

if you look at the top WR's on the fftoday website, the top 3 (let's say tier 1) are projected to average 12.75 fantasy points per game.

 

the next tier (the next 2) are projected to average 11.75 fantasy points per game.

 

but tier 1 averages $3-$5 more than tier two on most sites I've seen posting auction values.

 

top tier Kickers are projected to average .5 fantasy points more than the second tier, but sell on average only 1 dollar more. in theory, you are getting more additional fantasy points for your money spending on a good kicker as compared to a second tier one.

 

in theory all things being equal that difference needs to be at least 2 dollars (or spending $3 on a kicker) before you should bail on the kicker at auction to save for a top WR.

 

I didnt compare other positions such as RB's but from what I can tell, you should be dropping a tier on your WR selections in order to get yourself a top kicker.

 

I'd wait until the Auction values come out on fftoday and double check those numbers later in the draft, but what I saw on other sites suggests it's not a waste to spend on a top kicker.

[Gepetto 977]

I always make sure to get Justin Tucker on my team. Top D. like Chiefs and Broncos is important too. I'll get David Johnson and a top 3 QB. After that it's easy.

[browndelivers 7]

Oriole's suggestion is a really interesting one. Especially in our league, where the D/ST performance is magnified beyond the ESPN standard settings (see below, if your D gives up 28 points and 450 yards and you're -6).

 

Team Defense / Special Teams Each Sack (SK) 1 Interception Return TD (INTTD) 6 Fumble Return TD (FRTD) 6 Kickoff Return TD (KRTD) 6 Punt Return TD (PRTD) 6 Blocked Punt or FG return for TD (BLKKRTD) 6 Blocked Punt, PAT or FG (BLKK) 2 Each Interception (INT) 2 Each Fumble Recovered (FR) 2 Each Safety (SF) 2 0 points allowed (PA0) 10 1-6 points allowed (PA1) 8 7-13 points allowed (PA7) 6 14-17 points allowed (PA14) 4 18-21 points allowed (PA18) 2 22-27 points allowed (PA22) -2 28-34 points allowed (PA28) -4 35-45 points allowed (PA35) -6 46+ points allowed (PA46) -8 Less than 100 total yards allowed (YA100) 5 100-199 total yards allowed (YA199) 3 200-299 total yards allowed (YA299) 2 300-349 total yards allowed (YA349) 1 400-449 total yards allowed (YA449) -1 450-499 total yards allowed (YA499) -2 500-549 total yards allowed (YA549) -3 550+ total yards allowed (YA550) -4 2pt Return (2PTRET) 2 1pt Safety (1PSF) 2

 

In this scoring system, it would make a lot of sense to nominate and bid >$1 on a good D/ST, right?

[pabstbluribbin 1]

I kind of echo what Oriole said...you need to be zigging while others are zagging. Identifying early trends in Auction drafts and taking advantage is the key. Don't get stuck with a specific strategy. My recent auction draft had managers conserving budget for fear of running out early, so I jumped on studs for value....and surely enough as they started realizing what was going on it was too late and they ended up overpaying for mid tier players because there were no studs left and they had budget to use. If your league is overspending in an area out of fear of a dwindling talent pool, keep offering up those types of players.

 

And I actually disagree somewhat with the philosophy that you should nominate players you don't want. Had I done that I would have missed out on some early value by identifying a trend and actually nominating who I wanted as quickly as possible before others realized what was going on.

[Ray_T 587]

I kind of echo what Oriole said...you need to be zigging while others are zagging. Identifying early trends in Auction drafts and taking advantage is the key. Don't get stuck with a specific strategy. My recent auction draft had managers conserving budget for fear of running out early, so I jumped on studs for value....and surely enough as they started realizing what was going on it was too late and they ended up overpaying for mid tier players because there were no studs left and they had budget to use. If your league is overspending in an area out of fear of a dwindling talent pool, keep offering up those types of players.

 

And I actually disagree somewhat with the philosophy that you should nominate players you don't want. Had I done that I would have missed out on some early value by identifying a trend and actually nominating who I wanted as quickly as possible before others realized what was going on.

well, like I said, it depends on what your league does.

 

if they are overpaying for everyone.... then yes nominate someone you dont want.

 

If they are underpaying nominate someone you do want.

 

that first round of auctions really tells you how the rest of the auction is gonna go.

 

if they overpay early, they will be paying less for those second tier players. If they underpay early those second tier players will be a lot more expensive.

[Maroon Bells 18]

Guys in my league don't value QBs much so this strategy won't really work

 

I think that's exactly why it can work. My 12-team league doesn't value QBs much either and so everyone waits to nominate them, often creating bidding wars in the middle of the draft and inflating prices. Every year, in my league, prices for all other position are roughly in line with consensus ADPs, except for QBs. I've been thinking the same thing as the OP: get those QBs nominated early forcing early commitments.

[Oriole8159 86]

 

I think that's exactly why it can work. My 12-team league doesn't value QBs much either and so everyone waits to nominate them, often creating bidding wars in the middle of the draft and inflating prices. Every year, in my league, prices for all other position are roughly in line with consensus ADPs, except for QBs. I've been thinking the same thing as the OP: get those QBs nominated early forcing early commitments.

 

The difference though with the OPs statement was that he was doing this strategy with the intent of targetting Winston for half the price of the studs. That I don't like as I think that's the worst investment of any for the QB position.

 

Pay for a stud, get your back end starter for $2, but don't spend $15 or so for a slight upgrade like Winston.

[Maroon Bells 18]

I think the best advice is to just know your league. And as someone said above, zig when the league is zagging.

 

I have some pretty smart players in my league, and they all, myself included, think they're smarter than everyone else. And so we tend to avoid the expensive edge and target undervalued players that make us look smart.

 

Problem is, we ALL know exactly who the "sleepers" and "undervalued" players are. Because of this, we end up in ridiculous bidding wars for those players we MUST HAVE, often paying far more than they're worth. Well guess what? Now, they're no longer undervalued. I've fallen for this too many times. Especially when you look at how many top tier players went at a bargain because too many owners use this strategy.

 

This year, I've identified players I want, and I won't take a player I don't believe in, but I'm focused much more on playing the draft than targeting the undervalued.

 

There are a lot of players who fit into that category this year: Stefon Diggs, Isaiah Crowell...Poster boy for it year is Marcus Mariota. Yeah, I love him. Think he's going to put up great numbers this year. But every mock auction I've done, he's gone for 2 or 3 times his "consensus" value. He's gone from undervalued to overvalued.