Biggest Bust of 2018?

[The Postman 3]

Julio will score more this season, guaranteed

I would certainly hope so.

[bobby heenan 60]

Well by your posts it was obvious you drafted him, lol! Again, we shall see. We can compare notes in December. This post will still be around to reference!

Drafting him last year has nothing to do with championing his cause now...I don't own him anymore....but I did watch every touch he had last year....and can vouch that he is so

Special...I live in ne and I'm a Pats season ticket holder and went down to see them in new orleans...I told their fans peterson would be gone in a matter of weeks

 

Him being in a timeshare is fine...keeps him fresh and wear down....all I said was if he had the touches of a bell or gurley he would have been there with them ...

 

Your assessment goes agaisnt nfl personnel guys and guys that are in the know in football circles...yes regression is a certain possibilty....doesn't mean he's not a solid choice in the mid 1st ...the guy is special

[CedarGrovePack 2]

Take him in the 1st round. He has gone middle of 1st round in most of my money leagues so the majority is definitely with you. I will stick by my assessment and we will how his season unfolds.

 

My $ is on Kamara being a top 6 RB

[The Postman 3]

Drafting him last year has nothing to do with championing his cause now...I don't own him anymore....but I did watch every touch he had last year....and can vouch that he is so

Special...I live in ne and I'm a Pats season ticket holder and went down to see them in new orleans...I told their fans peterson would be gone in a matter of weeks

 

Him being in a timeshare is fine...keeps him fresh and wear down....all I said was if he had the touches of a bell or gurley he would have been there with them ...

 

Your assessment goes agaisnt nfl personnel guys and guys that are in the know in football circles...yes regression is a certain possibilty....doesn't mean he's not a solid choice in the mid 1st ...the guy is special

NFL personnel guys?? You are high if you think anyone including the "nfl personnel guys" predicted his success last year. Not even close. He overperformed. I watched him in college and I'm telling you he is NOT that special! I'm tired of debating it, let's just let it play out.

[Jedi Sensei 17]

How are you defining "bust"? A guy drafted as RB5 that ends up finishing as a RB12 (eg. Kamara) doesn't quite seem to fit the mold in the traditional sense of the term.

 

I think a guy like Trey Burton is going to disappoint a lot of owners this year -- taken as a starter in a lot of leagues, he might be a low-end TE2 prospect by year-end. THAT more closely resembles a "bust" in my understanding: a guy with sufficiently high draft capital that is barely start-able, once the pads go on.

 

Lamar Miller springs to mind, and I'm thinking Mixon doesn't give a great ROI either.

 

I'll go out on a limb and suggest my perennial shouldn't-have-spent-the-pick-on-this-guy guy: Amari Cooper. He'll finish a full tier below expectations, which is pretty close to 'bust' territory. I'm not sold on the Gruden Reunion Tour experiment and I think Jordy has about the same impact on Coop's value as Crabtree did. I desperately want to be wrong though, as I did invest in Amari...again.

[seafoam1 1,879]

How are you defining "bust"? A guy drafted as RB5 that ends up finishing as a RB12 (eg. Kamara) doesn't quite seem to fit the mold in the traditional sense of the term.

 

I think a guy like Trey Burton is going to disappoint a lot of owners this year -- taken as a starter in a lot of leagues, he might be a low-end TE2 prospect by year-end. THAT more closely resembles a "bust" in my understanding: a guy with sufficiently high draft capital that is barely start-able, once the pads go on.

 

Lamar Miller springs to mind, and I'm thinking Mixon doesn't give a great ROI either.

 

I'll go out on a limb and suggest my perennial shouldn't-have-spent-the-pick-on-this-guy guy: Amari Cooper. He'll finish a full tier below expectations, which is pretty close to 'bust' territory. I'm not sold on the Gruden Reunion Tour experiment and I think Jordy has about the same impact on Coop's value as Crabtree did. I desperately want to be wrong though, as I did invest in Amari...again.

Burton won't dissapoint and he didn't cost that much to get in my draft.

[Jedi Sensei 17]

Burton won't dissapoint and he didn't cost that much to get in my draft.

 

Well to me -- and as a Bears fan, I hope I'm wrong -- Burton is a guy who maps pretty closely to my concept of a "bust": a not-insignificant investment for a barely start-able player.

 

All before the first snaps, mind you, but that's what a prediction thread is about...

[bobby heenan 60]

NFL personnel guys?? You are high if you think anyone including the "nfl personnel guys" predicted his success last year. Not even close. He overperformed. I watched him in college and I'm telling you he is NOT that special! I'm tired of debating it, let's just let it play out.

i didnt say they predicted it dummy...i said they are saying it now after seeing it

 

listen....if you think hes a bust its because you dont think its likely someone can produce 13 tds and 1500 total yards on 200 touches....which is "insane" when you really think about it isnt it? thats a fraction of the touches the "big boys" get and still producing near their level........if you want to say you are betting that he cant do that again that is fine...because its really insane in reality......but dont sit here and act like hes "gio bernard" here....he IS SPECIAL....apparently you are a little too....but not in the good way

 

you might have watched him in college....but his college coach is no longer employed as a head coach..in fact he took a job at alabama to be an analyst for 35k...lol...and his running mate at tennessee is nowhere to be found now...hes trying to become a receiver now

[seafoam1 1,879]

 

Well to me -- and as a Bears fan, I hope I'm wrong -- Burton is a guy who maps pretty closely to my concept of a "bust": a not-insignificant investment for a barely start-able player.

 

All before the first snaps, mind you, but that's what a prediction thread is about...

I completely get it being a prediction and same on my side. But the debate is fun. Burton was a backup to Ertz.

Once you get past Ertz, the TE field begins to level off.

 

Other players that are being drafted ahead of Burton this year:

Greg Olsen- McCaffery will get 110+ targets most likely. Newton's downfield accuracy sucks. and Olsen is definitely on the decline. He costs more than Burton.

 

Delaney Walker- Age is creeping up there but he has been pretty consistent being in the top 12 over the past few years. Has a toe injury currently in the preseason.

 

Jimmy Graham - Didn't catch more than 72 yards in any one game last year. getting older, and is a huge question mark as to what to expect.

 

Evan Engram - Took him 115 targets to pull in 64 receptions. OBJ is back and people around here are screaming how much Barkley will be used. How is Engram going to get close to that number of targets this year, especially if he is only pulling in 55% of them?

 

Kyle Rudolph - Had off-season ankle surgery. That's his 8th surgery in the last 10 years. New offensive coordinator. Consistent enough player, but when do injuries catch up? So, new OC and QB. Cook is back, 2 great receivers. Up in the air.

 

Jordan Reed - Better have a good, higher priced backup as well. Not Vance McDonald...

 

So now we get around to where Trey Burton is getting drafted. Low end TE1 is the cost. I paid 8% of salary cap for him in my 12 team auction league (and this is in a Chicago league). He moves over from Peterson's offense to Nagy's. Day 1 of training camp he knows 95% of the playbook. That is huge at the TE position. In each of the last 3 years, the Reid/Peterson/Nagy offenses have averaged about 156 targets to TEs. That's a lot. And the Bears wasted no time pulling Burton in. He has a lot of opportunity and therefore upside. Last year he had 5 TDs on 23 receptions having gotten 31 targets filling in for Ertz. Only starting 1 game.

 

Unless you pay up (more than twice the dollars of Burton) for Kelce or Ertz or the oft-injured Gronkowski, then why not take a chance on a guy where the team will be running a TE friendly system with a young QB who loves throwing over the middle and will probably be throwing shorter routes until he gets more comfortable in the new offense. I'm happy to have Burton.

[jackjohn 31]

Is anyone else concerned that OBJ may underacheive this year? Now that he got paid, does his motivation drop some? Or put more pressure on to live up to the deal? I may bump him down some. AB and Hopkins are wr 1 & 2. Then obj, Julio and Thomas just for the sheer volume they get. Not saying hes going to suck, just may not be as good as hoped for.

[Mullog 12]

...I live in ne and I'm a Pats season ticket holder and went down to see them in new orleans...I told their fans peterson would be gone in a matter of weeks...

 

I'm sure they had no idea until you told them.

[bobby heenan 60]

Lol@mullog

 

FYI that game was week 2...and I told them before the game started

 

In week one, his first NFL game, he rushed 7 times for 18,yards and caught 4 balls for 20....hardly the stuff of future legends...u dummy

[skinsrule05 30]

i didnt say they predicted it dummy...i said they are saying it now after seeing it

 

listen....if you think hes a bust its because you dont think its likely someone can produce 13 tds and 1500 total yards on 200 touches....which is "insane" when you really think about it isnt it? thats a fraction of the touches the "big boys" get and still producing near their level........if you want to say you are betting that he cant do that again that is fine...because its really insane in reality......but dont sit here and act like hes "gio bernard" here....he IS SPECIAL....apparently you are a little too....but not in the good way

 

you might have watched him in college....but his college coach is no longer employed as a head coach..in fact he took a job at alabama to be an analyst for 35k...lol...and his running mate at tennessee is nowhere to be found now...hes trying to become a receiver now

You sound way too invested in Kamara. The guy has a different opinion, so what? If you have played FF for more then a season you know anything can happen. You make it sound like he is insulting a family member of yours.

[bobby heenan 60]

You sound way too invested in Kamara. The guy has a different opinion, so what? If you have played FF for more then a season you know anything can happen. You make it sound like he is insulting a family member of yours.

im not invested him at all....i stated that..i dont own him now....

 

ive been playing ff for over 20 years...i know anything can happen...i stated that a regression could very well happen because producing the numbers he did on only 200 touches just doesnt happen.....but the guy suggested kamara is just some guy that lucked into his numbers....and thats not the case....if you watched football for just one season you would see/know that....

 

this guy suggests kamara is just a guy....hes not...he did some amazing things last year.....that catch against minny in the playoffs? amazing...some of the ways he scored with ease were pretty out of this world....the guy ran a kickoff back for a td too....

 

if you watched all of kamaras touches last year you would know that hes not some "gio bernard" that got lucky.....hes a true talent

 

its a football forum...were here to discuss it....you have anything to add about football? or just your pyschological evaluation of an anonymous stranger?

[seafoam1 1,879]

im not invested him at all....i stated that..i dont own him now....

 

ive been playing ff for over 20 years...i know anything can happen...i stated that a regression could very well happen because producing the numbers he did on only 200 touches just doesnt happen.....but the guy suggested kamara is just some guy that lucked into his numbers....and thats not the case....if you watched football for just one season you would see/know that....

 

this guy suggests kamara is just a guy....hes not...he did some amazing things last year.....that catch against minny in the playoffs? amazing...some of the ways he scored with ease were pretty out of this world....the guy ran a kickoff back for a td too....

 

if you watched all of kamaras touches last year you would know that hes not some "gio bernard" that got lucky.....hes a true talent

 

its a football forum...were here to discuss it....you have anything to add about football? or just your pyschological evaluation of an anonymous stranger?

I don't think anyone here is arguing he is not a top 12 back. I think most feel he did something that is nearly impossible to repeat. But if he does, jeez, that would be crazy.

[bobby heenan 60]

I don't think anyone here is arguing he is not a top 12 back. I think most feel he did something that is nearly impossible to repeat. But if he does, jeez, that would be crazy.

point is...if you watched him....you know hes truly talented and hes capable of doing special things.....the guy that is labeling him a bust thinks that hes just a guy...he basically implies he just got lucky...that hes just a gio bernard........i think anyone that saw what he did and is capable of knows hes not gio....they would know hes special.....

 

i agree its difficult to repeat on that number of touches.....but i doubt there are many other backs capable of doing what he did either

 

hes already ranked in the 30s in espns top 100 players .....gio bernard never got a whiff of that....and kamara isnt just a fluke....kamara is special.....all you had to do was watch and you would have seen it....the guys around the league surely noticed....nfl personnel guys and guys that cover the league certainly noticed

 

i never argued what he did is easily repeatable.....and maybe the guy has a point....that at the end of the year maybe a 90 catch 1300 yard 10 td receiver would have been the safer choice in that mid/late 1st round.....but its hard to argue that kamara is just a guy

[The Postman 3]

i didnt say they predicted it dummy...i said they are saying it now after seeing it

 

listen....if you think hes a bust its because you dont think its likely someone can produce 13 tds and 1500 total yards on 200 touches....which is "insane" when you really think about it isnt it? thats a fraction of the touches the "big boys" get and still producing near their level........if you want to say you are betting that he cant do that again that is fine...because its really insane in reality......but dont sit here and act like hes "gio bernard" here....he IS SPECIAL....apparently you are a little too....but not in the good way

 

you might have watched him in college....but his college coach is no longer employed as a head coach..in fact he took a job at alabama to be an analyst for 35k...lol...and his running mate at tennessee is nowhere to be found now...hes trying to become a receiver now

Lets just let the season play out and then we will decide who is "special" my little friend. Did your parents know you up at 3:46 AM???

[Super Cubs 132]

Saquon Barkley - I got a feeling he'll finish with good overall numbers but with a Ochocinco like season. Where he'll have several big games, several just ok games, and several games where he does nothing. Being a head to head nightmare for owners.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

I don't think anyone here is arguing he is not a top 12 back. I think most feel he did something that is nearly impossible to repeat. But if he does, jeez, that would be crazy.

What did he do that is nearly impossible to repeat? 6.1 a carry? Maybe. But most people expect more carries.

[skinsrule05 30]

What did he do that is nearly impossible to repeat? 6.1 a carry? Maybe. But most people expect more carries.

But why are people expecting this? I have seen a lot of people tauting that he will have a role like Sproles did in NO. In his most active season he had 173 touches.

 

The Saints don’t typically have a 300 touch rusher. Ingram has hovered in the 200-250 range and that is with minimal other talent in the backfield on the team.

 

Ingram is still there and expected to be a big part of the offense. Over the past 5 years the saints have averaged 375 touches for their top two RBs. If that trend continues are people expecting Ingram to get under 125 touches? It may happen but I don’t believe that is a slam dunk.

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

Kamara should in no way be compared to D Sproles.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports the Saints were planning to make Alvin Kamara their "featured" back even before Mark Ingram's four-game suspension.

It's hardly a surprise. As Fantasy Guru's Graham Barfield points out, Kamara out-snapped Ingram over the Saints' final eight games last season. What Ingram's suspension does is give Kamara a chance to put a stranglehold on lead duties, perhaps erasing the 1A/1B workload delineation that existed last year. Ingram is headed into a contract season, and the Saints will probably be preparing to move on. Kamara will be well worth a first-round pick in this summer's fantasy drafts.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

But why are people expecting this? I have seen a lot of people tauting that he will have a role like Sproles did in NO. In his most active season he had 173 touches.

 

The Saints dont typically have a 300 touch rusher. Ingram has hovered in the 200-250 range and that is with minimal other talent in the backfield on the team.

 

Ingram is still there and expected to be a big part of the offense. Over the past 5 years the saints have averaged 375 touches for their top two RBs. If that trend continues are people expecting Ingram to get under 125 touches? It may happen but I dont believe that is a slam dunk.

Over last 5 years Brees has been chucking the ball all over. They didnt do that last year and their team went far. He is 40 years old.

 

Ingram is suspended 4 games.

 

You think Kamara's high end carries is 120 from last year? Im.not saying he will get 250 carries. But is 160 absurd? Im saying that will offset his probable fall back in ypc.

[The Postman 3]

he won't get 200. I just don't think he will be that effective. We will see.

[rallo 132]

He will be in a time share starting week 1 this year. Trust me he will not take Ingram's work. He is not a between the tackles runner. Ingram's suspension won't affect anything but Ingram.

I'm bullish on ingram... contract year, and he's been using PEDs??? Sign me up

[listen2me 23 1,541]

Doesnt have to take Ingramd work.

 

No one is saying he will touch it 300 times..

 

But more than last year.

[defectivesupport 5]

I'm with the kamara bust as well. Why overuse the guy when you have another proven back. Sean payton has one year of <650 passes and that was last year. Are we really on the momentum hype train to the point that we are blind to the risk?

 

Just remember early in brees' career, the last time he had two RB and under 600 passes. There was a guy named Reggie Bush. He went rushing 154att / 558 yds and 121 tar / 88 rec / 745 yds. Even ignoring the rushing yards - when he became the main back the next year, number regressed. Targets dropped by 30. How isn't this reasonable with kamara? Why wont his yards per rush decline when he is more tired later in games after being made to run more than one play per 3 minutes. Why wont his yards decline after being made to run 'standard plays' and not mostly plays tailored to his utility based skillset.

 

Just because he is being drafted first round, doesn't make him a surefire RB1. Id even wager he is likely to be RB8 or lower, with a pretty good chance to drop out of the top 10 entirely. I'll gladly take AB over Kamara at #5.

[[echo] 72]

he wins.. he has a Patriot pedigree, he has the physical tools.. nice supporting cast.. right age...

 

2. Garappolo
Overpaid, I havent and still dont understand the hype...

[TBayXXXVII 2,116]

Dalvin Cook

 

Looks to be a top 15 pick and an RB1. Generally RB's don't fare well after ACL's. I think he finishes the season as an RB3 or RB4.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I agree, Bobby.

 

Kamara has this rare combination of great vision, blazing speed and power. Give that kid 18 touches per game and he might be the number 1 RB in fantasy. The fact that he may catch 90 passes makes him almost a #2 FF WR along with being a great RB.

 

Reminds me so much of vintage Chris Johnson.

 

I actually took him #5 overall in a startup this summer over Bell, OBJ, Hopkins, ect (Gurley,Zeke-DJ, Barkley top 4)

 

I expect regression certainly but when I looked at the numbers he produced nearly the same fantasy production as Bell on literally 200 less carries.

 

That's certainly a 'red flag' in a sense but it also allows for his efficiency to come back down to earth if his carries increase marginally.

 

 

Compared to the WRs who might catch 90 balls, an RB who can catch 80 himself in a PPR along with the rushing production was too much to pass up.

[bobby heenan 60]

 

this is not some average rb that the postman watched in college that "isnt special"...i thought the usps didnt deliver on sundays...but it eppears mr postman spent most of them delivering junk mail coupons instead of watching nfl football...apparently his football acumen is as outdated as his job

 

i have no problem with someone telling me they think his numbers will regress...but dont go calling him "nothing special" or "gio bernard"

 

i guess all the guys trying to tackle him all cramped up and took bad angles huh?

 

thats not average burst, vision and balance...not even close...this guy can ball

[skinsrule05 30]

I'm with the kamara bust as well. Why overuse the guy when you have another proven back. Sean payton has one year of <650 passes and that was last year. Are we really on the momentum hype train to the point that we are blind to the risk?

 

Just remember early in brees' career, the last time he had two RB and under 600 passes. There was a guy named Reggie Bush. He went rushing 154att / 558 yds and 121 tar / 88 rec / 745 yds. Even ignoring the rushing yards - when he became the main back the next year, number regressed. Targets dropped by 30. How isn't this reasonable with kamara? Why wont his yards per rush decline when he is more tired later in games after being made to run more than one play per 3 minutes. Why wont his yards decline after being made to run 'standard plays' and not mostly plays tailored to his utility based skillset.

 

 

 

That's why I don't think they will do that to him. He isn't a guy who is going to carry the full load because that would keep him from doing what he does best which is catch and be quick. The reggie bush example is a good one. The saints saw how it hurt him when they increased his load. Last year he had 200 touches and I would think it would be about the same but skewed some because of the first 4 games.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

He isn't a guy who is going to carry the full load because that would keep him from doing what he does best which is catch and be quick.

Is anyone here saying he will get a full load?

 

What are we talking about here?

[bobby heenan 60]

I'm with the kamara bust as well. Why overuse the guy when you have another proven back. Sean payton has one year of <650 passes and that was last year. Are we really on the momentum hype train to the point that we are blind to the risk?

 

Just remember early in brees' career, the last time he had two RB and under 600 passes. There was a guy named Reggie Bush. He went rushing 154att / 558 yds and 121 tar / 88 rec / 745 yds. Even ignoring the rushing yards - when he became the main back the next year, number regressed. Targets dropped by 30. How isn't this reasonable with kamara? Why wont his yards per rush decline when he is more tired later in games after being made to run more than one play per 3 minutes. Why wont his yards decline after being made to run 'standard plays' and not mostly plays tailored to his utility based skillset.

 

Just because he is being drafted first round, doesn't make him a surefire RB1. Id even wager he is likely to be RB8 or lower, with a pretty good chance to drop out of the top 10 entirely. I'll gladly take AB over Kamara at #5.

bush only played in 12 games the following year.....only started 10 of them.....the previous year he played in every game as a "co starter" of sorts

 

not to mention...this is probably one of the best offensive lines the saints have ever had...and their defense is a real up and comer

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

Julio will score more this season, guaranteed

Bold.

[skinsrule05 30]

Is anyone here saying he will get a full load?

What are we talking about here?

Not at all, that was more in response to someone who said his touches will go up this year to offset any regression. Based on history and Ingram still being there I don’t see it happening.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Kamara can absolutely have down year.

We've seen some talented guys in this league that come out ball'n only to fall back in the following years.

[BuschWack 56]

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

He'll put up some good games, but at his current ADP (41 Overall, WR16 in Standard Scoring) is BUST IMO>

 

Any Steelers WR not named AB shouldn't be ranked that high.

[justforbeer 39]

L. BELL

 

With the rift between him and the Steelers, this hold out, his injury risk, attitude and usage last year.

 

I think there are too many factors against bell and it will be a disappointing season. Actually I’m hoping he doesn’t play for a couple weeks!

 

Give Conner the ball! Should be interesting over the next couple days.

 

 

Also D Cook will be a disappointment, In fact I think all Minnesota players will be a disappointment.

Carson Wentz will be nothing like he was.

Zeke will also suck.

[bobby heenan 60]

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

He'll put up some good games, but at his current ADP (41 Overall, WR16 in Standard Scoring) is BUST IMO>

 

Any Steelers WR not named AB shouldn't be ranked that high.

when stefon diggs puts up juju numbers people are ranking him as a top 30 player and a 3rd round pick! lol