Gurley

[stonewall 647]

All of us Gurley owners thought that we had struck gold when he came out like a demon and rushed for at 130 yards+ in 4 straight games, with 3 TD's. Unstoppable? Unfortunately, yes.

 

As the Rams offense had become anemic with zero passing threat, Gurley has only managed 130 yards combined over his last 3 games....including a 19 yard buzzkill last weekend.

 

So, do we continue throwing him out there every week and hope for the best, or do we sit him for upside guys like Hillman, Riddick, or Buck Allen? Anyone expecting a comeback, or does the trend seem irreversible?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I had a few draft only leagues where his emergence had me thinking i would win. If he has a tough matchup like the Cards? Bench him.

[weepaws 2,457]

So he won't be the number one ranked rb in redraft leagues next season ?

[stonewall 647]

So he won't be the number one ranked rb in redraft leagues next season ?

 

You'll have to ask Bobbyn2022 about that.

[tanatastic 2,061]

So he won't be the number one ranked rb in redraft leagues next season ?

Who would you say would be the top 5 right now? Rbs are kind of a mess.

[Squintz82 45]

Don't think I can bench him due to his upside. If you have someone who's an absolute lock for at least RB2 numbers, maybe you could justify it. But all it takes is one missed tackle against Gurley.

[barber2309 26]

Who would you say would be the top 5 right now? Rbs are kind of a mess.

 

AP? Freeman would have to be in the conversation but I would have concerns that Coleman's role will grow next year.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

AP? Freeman would have to be in the conversation but I would have concerns that Coleman's role will grow next year.

Next year could be APs shaun alexander, Lynch fall off year. Will bury teams. But then again, betting against AP is a bad idea.

[barber2309 26]

Next year could be APs shaun alexander, Lynch fall off year. Will bury teams. But then again, betting against AP is a bad idea.

Not saying I would feel great about it, but given the options?

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Who would you say would be the top 5 right now? Rbs are kind of a mess.

 

Interesting question. Right now I see so many intangibles. The top 10 will really depend on where some of the top 10 FA RB's like Ivory, Martin and Forte wind up. I also think next year we may see a record low for 1st round RB ADP. Maybe 3 or 4 in 12 team leagues.

 

But my top 2016 RB's right now – (estimated ADP) and where I would currently draft them (in 2016):

 

1. AP (ADP of 1 or 2) – I'd pay that

2. Bell (ADP of 3 or 4) – Price is right for me

3. Gurley (ADP of 5 or 6) – people will overpay, I wouldn't touch till late 1st

4. Freeman (ADP of 5 or 6) – people will overpay, he'll be on my do not draft list unless can somehow grab in second

5. Ingram (ADP of 11 or 12) – some huge value here if falls late 1st, early 2nd

6. Lacy (ADP of late second) – also some big value here if falls late second, early 3rd and Starks leaves in FA

7. McFadden (ADP of late second – late 3rd) – will be interesting to see how they use Turbin down the stretch, but volume can't be ignored

8. Langford – if Forte leaves will have a mid to late first ADP. I actually like better then Freeman

 

Then there's the slew of guys who will go too early or two late given the young challengers for touches, McCoy, Lynch, Miller, Charles, Dion Lewis, Forsett et al and the aforementioned UFA guys (Ivory, Martin) who could wind up having a ADP in the top 15 or 20s or 30s and greatly effect the value of the guys in the next tier. I believe next year is going to be pretty wild in terms of the number handcuffs and backups drafted in the mid-rounds versus their historic 8+ round ADP.

 

And finally the non-brand names who will suffer from recency bias for poor (perceived) performance or injury – many of which will be steals at their respective 5th – 8th round picks. The ideal RB zero guys. Names like Riddick/Abdullah, CJ Anderson, Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson, Sims, Vereen, Matt Jones. The dudes who are always good for 8 – 15 pts a game and the perfect compliment to something like a Hopkins / Edelman / Decker draft.

 

I'm a huge WR/WR/WR guy, but I think we're going to see a lot of value RB's next year in the late second, early/late third. With a 30K view right now, I'd be absolutely stoked to flip the script and get a Hopkins/Brown/Jones followed by something like (2nd rd.) Lacy, (3rd rd.) McFadden / DeMarco Murray / Yeldon, (4th rd.) Bernard/Woodhead.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Interesting question. Right now I see so many intangibles. The top 10 will really depend on where some of the top 10 FA RB's like Ivory, Martin and Forte wind up. I also think next year we may see a record low for 1st round RB ADP. Maybe 3 or 4 in 12 team leagues.

 

But my top 2016 RB's right now – (estimated ADP) and where I would currently draft them (in 2016):

 

1. AP (ADP of 1 or 2) – I'd pay that

2. Bell (ADP of 3 or 4) – Price is right for me

3. Gurley (ADP of 5 or 6) – people will overpay, I wouldn't touch till late 1st

4. Freeman (ADP of 5 or 6) – people will overpay, he'll be on my do not draft list unless can somehow grab in second

5. Ingram (ADP of 11 or 12) – some huge value here if falls late 1st, early 2nd

6. Lacy (ADP of late second) – also some big value here if falls late second, early 3rd and Starks leaves in FA

7. McFadden (ADP of late second – late 3rd) – will be interesting to see how they use Turbin down the stretch, but volume can't be ignored

8. Langford – if Forte leaves will have a mid to late first ADP. I actually like better then Freeman

 

I cant support Mcfadden there. I can see Doug Martin in that mix. What about Rawls when Lynch is gone? Also Charles should prob still be in that mix.

[stonewall 647]

Let's face it fellers.......RB has become akin to a crapshoot on draft day.

[track 1 16]

Wr wr wr first three rounds

[tanatastic 2,061]

Wr wr wr first three rounds

Then a TE if Olsen is there. From there can just stack RBs til about rnd 8 then get a QB.

[weepaws 2,457]

Right now Peterson would be number one and I can't believe that going into this season I would be saying that about next season . I still like Bell a lot but two straight seasons ended with injuries . Guley will be a top three rb . But look at what has happen to him based on the team he playes on , based on just talent alone he is a top three rb .

[weepaws 2,457]

You'll have to ask Bobbyn2022 about that.

Lol I'm sure he will let us know soon .

[Canadianfan 76]

All of us Gurley owners thought that we had struck gold when he came out like a demon and rushed for at 130 yards+ in 4 straight games, with 3 TD's. Unstoppable? Unfortunately, yes.

 

As the Rams offense had become anemic with zero passing threat, Gurley has only managed 130 yards combined over his last 3 games....including a 19 yard buzzkill last weekend.

 

So, do we continue throwing him out there every week and hope for the best, or do we sit him for upside guys like Hillman, Riddick, or Buck Allen? Anyone expecting a comeback, or does the trend seem irreversible?

Gurley has struggled, but he's un-benchable. He's been in the top 5 in all weekly rankings since week six. This week I expect good numbers from him. These two teams always play close games, they know each other well. The rams won't be in position to play catch up like they have last few weeks. I expect 25+ touches.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Lol I'm sure he will let us know soon .

Hey thats the great Bobby your talkin about. He called Diggs ya know. You know Diggs, the guy who had a few good games but has done zippo for many weeks since an dprob killed teams? Yea that guy.

[stonewall 647]

Hey thats the great Bobby your talkin about. He called Diggs ya know. You know Diggs, the guy who had a few good games but has done zippo for many weeks since an dprob killed teams? Yea that guy.

 

Don't forget Rod Smith too!

[weepaws 2,457]

Gurley has struggled, but he's un-benchable. He's been in the top 5 in all weekly rankings since week six. This week I expect good numbers from him. These two teams always play close games, they know each other well. The rams won't be in position to play catch up like they have last few weeks. I expect 25+ touches.

I agree , he is a must start .

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Let's face it fellers.......RB has become akin to a crapshoot on draft day.

 

The ones in the first three rounds anyway. Typically, baring injury you know exactly what you're getting with the guys in rds 5+, very much more so then rds 1 and 2. These days the inverse is true for WR. Most WR taken in the first 3 rounds are far more predictable in terms of production and PPG then those in rds 5+.

 

While it's anything but a black and white fact – for the past couple years owners building their team around two WR1's and/or a TE1 back filled with mid-round RB's and late round high-upside RB's have seen more success then the 20% or 30% (Guess? Less?) chance they'll hit on back to back RB's in rd's 1 and 2.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

I cant support Mcfadden there. I can see Doug Martin in that mix. What about Rawls when Lynch is gone? Also Charles should prob still be in that mix.

 

Where is Lynch going? He's signed through 2017 with 5M of dead money in 2016. (2M in 17') Short of a trade he'll be a Seahawk for 2016. As I mentioned he's in the intangible wild card group.

 

Doug Martin will be dependent on where he ends up. TB will certainly have the money to resign him, but I think he is the classic example of a guy people will over pay for.

 

McFadden on the other hand (again, depending on what we see w/ Turbin) is the type of pick drafted 15-20 picks after the other guys listed but winds up putting very similar numbers. Similar to Gore, Latavius, Ivory, Woodhead, Bernard and James Stewart this year. All of these guys are averaging just 1 to 3 PPG less then the batch of 1st and 2nd round guys still standing but were taken between 15 to 40 picks later. Like myself, I'm looking for an average of 10 (PPR) PPG from those mid rd RB's and I'll gladly trade 3 points a week and not pay the opportunity cost of taking the best player available regardless of position in those early rounds. Most owners fail to realize that there will be starting RB's available until round 6 or 7.

 

I think Charles – especially coming off a big injury will suffer from a significant workload decrease. What's really interesting about him is that he accounts for ZERO dead money after this year. Although he has a very team friendly cap number – the emergence of Davis and West might provide KC a window to get some nice draft equity in a trade. Obviously this is pure speculation, but if he were to suddenly find himself in say Cleveland, either New York team, TEN or INDY he would easily be back in the top 3 conversation.

[Canadianfan 76]

 

Where is Lynch going? He's signed through 2017 with 5M of dead money in 2016. (2M in 17') Short of a trade he'll be a Seahawk for 2016. As I mentioned he's in the intangible wild card group.

 

Doug Martin will be dependent on where he ends up. TB will certainly have the money to resign him, but I think he is the classic example of a guy people will over pay for.

 

McFadden on the other hand (again, depending on what we see w/ Turbin) is the type of pick drafted 15-20 picks after the other guys listed but winds up putting very similar numbers. Similar to Gore, Latavius, Ivory, Woodhead, Bernard and James Stewart this year. All of these guys are averaging just 1 to 3 PPG less then the batch of 1st and 2nd round guys still standing but were taken between 15 to 40 picks later. Like myself, I'm looking for an average of 10 (PPR) PPG from those mid rd RB's and I'll gladly trade 3 points a week and not pay the opportunity cost of taking the best player available regardless of position in those early rounds. Most owners fail to realize that there will be starting RB's available until round 6 or 7.

 

I think Charles – especially coming off a big injury will suffer from a significant workload decrease. What's really interesting about him is that he accounts for ZERO dead money after this year. Although he has a very team friendly cap number – the emergence of Davis and West might provide KC a window to get some nice draft equity in a trade. Obviously this is pure speculation, but if he were to suddenly find himself in say Cleveland, either New York team, TEN or INDY he would easily be back in the top 3 conversation.

I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Dallas didn't have one RB on their current roster in 2016

[BobSanders_33 127]

I think after the next few weeks David Johnson, Jav Allen and Jay Ajayi could get into the conversation. CJ Anderson could get people excited again. There is no way McFadden will be anything higher than a 3rd round pick next year.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

I think after the next few weeks David Johnson, Jav Allen and Jay Ajayi could get into the conversation. CJ Anderson could get people excited again. There is no way McFadden will be anything higher than a 3rd round pick next year.

 

McFadden has been a top 5 RB since assuming the starting roll. 'No way' seems like a peculiar overstatement – he's one of only a handful 'workhorse' non timeshare RB's in the league.

 

Of the guys you listed, only Ajayi will should crack the top 25 – and only if Miller leaves in FA. David Johnson hasn't started a game and Buck has one. Both have very capable running backs on the depth chart who will still be under contract next year.

 

I have no idea why owners love overvaluing unproven rookie/young RB's year after year. It's nuts. At most there will be one RB a season who finishes in the top 10 (or even 20) in scoring as a rookie, drafted in the first or second round the following year and finish as a top 10 back. Very few come even close to performing at their draft day price. I can count on one hand how many times this has happened in as many years. Bell. Lacy. Who else?

 

Worse yet are owners who over pay for speculative numbers based on a very small body (or no) work. Especially if those backs are in (definite) or potential timeshares. For every Latavius Murray there are three or four Zac Stacys, CJ Andersons (and Monte Ball), Jeremy Hills, Melvin Gordons and Abdullahs.

 

.

[DrG 94]

I think draft strategies just have to be fluid. The top wrs like Julio, Dez and Thomas have either been injured or affected by qb injuries. But the proliferation of passing means it is easier to find depth at wr vs handcuffing a bunch of rbs. I carried as many as 9 rbs this year starting Charles, Freeman, Gurley and Forsett. Each of those players has missed time. Ideally if you can find 2 decent rbs it may be easier to manage a roster season long stacking toward wr

[stonewall 647]

1st half = 7 yards.

 

Ouch. This offense is anemic.

[Mike Nice 40]

Gurley suckssssss

[Squintz82 45]

Gurley suckssssss

 

You're convinced it Gurley?

[stonewall 647]

Well, here we are again......I can't seem to resist rolling him out against Detroit, even though the writing seems to be on the wall for that offense.

 

Planning on starting him over Buck Allen against the Hawks.

[Tuxedosam 4]

I think i will play Gurley as my Flex or I can use D. Thomas!? I also have Ingram, C. West and Allen benched

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Where is Lynch going? He's signed through 2017 with 5M of dead money in 2016. (2M in 17') Short of a trade he'll be a Seahawk for 2016. As I mentioned he's in the intangible wild card group.

Doug Martin will be dependent on where he ends up. TB will certainly have the money to resign him, but I think he is the classic example of a guy people will over pay for.

Lynch- Your that sure he will be back? Pretty good bet he retires or gets cut man. The writing is more than on the wall, it is the wall. But who knows, he's also greedy and will want to cash in knowing he will Prob ride the pine most of the year and eat skittles.

 

Martin- Almost positive TB resigns him and they would be foolish not to. He's been among the best RBs in the league and they have said its a priority.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Lynch- Your that sure he will be back? Pretty good bet he retires or gets cut man. The writing is more than on the wall, it is the wall. But who knows, he's also greedy and will want to cash in knowing he will Prob ride the pine most of the year and eat skittles.

 

Martin- Almost positive TB resigns him and they would be foolish not to. He's been among the best RBs in the league and they have said its a priority.

 

Lynch is just 29 and would be 5M worth of dead money if cut. A trade would be more likely, but I just don't see them eating that amount of $ only a year after finally getting Harvin's 7M off the books. Even if he sees only 150-200 touches he's more valuable then half of the RB's in the league and a great compliment to Rawls. Plus, if your Seattle and cut him you'd hate to have a team like SF sign him and get gashed in vengeance games twice a year.

[stonewall 647]

Finally.....