Article: Early Observations - NFC

[Mike FF Today 607]

Last week it was the AFC. This week it's the NFC. A nice recap of the off-season and the biggest fantasy storylines for each team. Enjoy!

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

The link doesn't work

 

As for John Brown, there are two issues that make his reliablity questionable for me. I have always been worried about his hands for one. He drops far too many passes. Second, can Palmer even get it to him deep? Two years ago is more of a blip for Palmer. I didn't get a chance to own him that year because I had seen his arm strength decrease. Last year seemed more like his typical self, which makes his receivers tough to rely on for fantasy. Still his 9th round adp is a pretty good value for the Cardinals potential #1 receiver.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Carolina- not a mention of Curtis Samuel? I don't understand why. He was used as a running back at Ohio State. I was thinking that taking two similar style and versitilile players in Mcaffery and Samuel, could be a sign for a different style of offense from the team. It may have just been more of a best player available that landed Samuel on their roster, but it also could be a philosophy shift for the entire offense.

[Mike FF Today 607]

The link doesn't work

 

Let's try this again...

[ralphster 274]

DNS_PROBE_FINISHED_NXDOMAIN

[Vikings4ever 496]

The link's missing the fftoday.com/ at the beginning of the address.

[Mike FF Today 607]

The link's missing the fftoday.com/ at the beginning of the address.

 

 

Editing a post isn't working too well. Should be fixed now.

[The Football Guru 211]

Carolina- not a mention of Curtis Samuel? I don't understand why. He was used as a running back at Ohio State. I was thinking that taking two similar style and versitilile players in Mcaffery and Samuel, could be a sign for a different style of offense from the team. It may have just been more of a best player available that landed Samuel on their roster, but it also could be a philosophy shift for the entire offense.

 

I just did a brief Google search for Samuel. I saw one article from June about how fast he was (not exactly mind-blowing stuff there). The main purpose of these EO columns is to (hopefully) talk about what these players did during minicamp, although I do make exceptions. With Samuel, he didn't have much recent stuff written about him, plus I know I'm going to talk about him later in the summer.

 

If I thought Samuel was going to get more than 40-50 carries, maybe I would have included him in the fantasy analysis paragraph. I see him being used more like Ted Ginn with the occasional use of him out of the backfield (4-5 carries per game at the most).

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

I just did a brief Google search for Samuel. I saw one article from June about how fast he was (not exactly mind-blowing stuff there). The main purpose of these EO columns is to (hopefully) talk about what these players did during minicamp, although I do make exceptions. With Samuel, he didn't have much recent stuff written about him, plus I know I'm going to talk about him later in the summer.

 

If I thought Samuel was going to get more than 40-50 carries, maybe I would have included him in the fantasy analysis paragraph. I see him being used more like Ted Ginn with the occasional use of him out of the backfield (4-5 carries per game at the most).

Yeah i understand that. But I also see a possible change in offense coming. I just thought there would be mention of it for fft readers to get ahead of the curve.

[The Football Guru 211]

I'm pretty sure I mentioned that in the rookie piece, and I'm trying hard not to repeat myself, among other reasons.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Ameer Abdullah, we haven't dismissed him yet due to his most glaring problem, he severely lacks talent? I think the guy should barely even be a backup as far as his "talent" is concerned. He hasn't shown me anything at all that suggests he even belongs in the discussion for lead back, on any team. He had a nice combine with some good measurable, but it just hasn't translated onto the field at all. Some guys its just all on paper.

[The Football Guru 211]

I'm pretty sure the quickness Todd Bowles once compared to Barry Sanders has just disappeared.

 

You sound like a jilted owner. Abdullah has had virtually no line to run behind it either of his first two years, and he was hurt for most of last season. Before the Taylor Decker injury, he had a shot to run behind an above-average line, now it might be just around average.

 

I'll gladly draft AA for bench depth this year if folks like you want to dismiss him as a paper tiger.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Never owned him. I always thought he was overrated

[Ray_T 587]

Ameer Abdullah, we haven't dismissed him yet due to his most glaring problem, he severely lacks talent? I think the guy should barely even be a backup as far as his "talent" is concerned. He hasn't shown me anything at all that suggests he even belongs in the discussion for lead back, on any team. He had a nice combine with some good measurable, but it just hasn't translated onto the field at all. Some guys its just all on paper.

Abdullah's problem has never been the talent.

 

his problem is he fumbles and then gets benched.

 

going into last season they said they fixed the issue. but teams almost always say that about their fumbling backs.

 

that being said, it wasnt a problem in the brief time he was on the field last year (prior to the injury) but the sample size is too small to rely on heavily.

 

so the problem may be fixed, but you cannot say for sure. I'd proceed with caution and if you dont feel the rankings warrant the risk, you need to move him down on your draft board.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Abdullah's problem has never been the talent.

 

his problem is he fumbles and then gets benched.

 

going into last season they said they fixed the issue. but teams almost always say that about their fumbling backs.

 

that being said, it wasnt a problem in the brief time he was on the field last year (prior to the injury) but the sample size is too small to rely on heavily.

 

so the problem may be fixed, but you cannot say for sure. I'd proceed with caution and if you dont feel the rankings warrant the risk, you need to move him down on your draft board.

You really don't see the talent issue? Seeing the talent deficiency has benefited me when it comes to Abdullah. Tiny hands, can't catch, fumbles too often, hasn't shown an ability to run inside consistently. And he is small. Meh.

[The Football Guru 211]

You really don't see the talent issue? Seeing the talent deficiency has benefited me when it comes to Abdullah. Tiny hands, can't catch, fumbles too often, hasn't shown an ability to run inside consistently. And he is small. Meh.

 

Again, what is the deal with his "talent?" How do you personally define that? Not that I get too hung up on what one opposing coach said about a player two years, but why would Bowles (unprompted, I might add) be so quick to compare him to Barry Sanders? Hoping a player from another conference would get too full of himself?

 

Abdullah's biggest flaws are small hands and lack of long speed (in terms of getting caught from behind on long runs). He is a good-enough receiver (didn't get used that way very often at Nebraska) and roughly the same size as Christian McCaffrey and/or Jamaal Charles. I don't think many people believe he is (or was ever going to be) a workhorse, but he's easily good enough to be a lead back.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

Again, what is the deal with his "talent?" How do you personally define that? Not that I get too hung up on what one opposing coach said about a player two years, but why would Bowles (unprompted, I might add) be so quick to compare him to Barry Sanders? Hoping a player from another conference would get too full of himself?

 

Abdullah's biggest flaws are small hands and lack of long speed (in terms of getting caught from behind on long runs). He is a good-enough receiver (didn't get used that way very often at Nebraska) and roughly the same size as Christian McCaffrey and/or Jamaal Charles. I don't think many people believe he is (or was ever going to be) a workhorse, but he's easily good enough to be a lead back.

I mean talent isn't a set number. It's just a general description I use for a player. His hands are too small. He is too frail. He fumbles too often. He hasn't shown much wow factor. So those are all dings on what I would describe as his overall talent. Coaches say weird stuff all the time. I though the comment was about as off base as a comment I have ever heard.

 

Mcaffery has very good hands, which is a huge difference. While I think he will be better than Abdullah, I don't know that for sure. That's just speculation on my part.

 

Plus there is a patience and instinct to running that can t be taught. Charles had that. His size required that he pick his holes carefully.

 

Jordan Howard is a great example of a guy without top end athleticism that has great vision and picks his holes and timing. David Johnson and Leveon Bell have that patience and vision also. It's probably the most important trait a rb can have. If a rb does not excell in that area, they should try their best to get better at it, or excell in other areas. Abdullah doesn't excel enough in other areas to make up for a lack of high end instinct imo.

[The Football Guru 211]

I can pretty much agree with your last three paragraphs. Yes, his hands are small and he did fumble a lot as a rookie, but we knew he had a problem with that going back to his college days. I would say I have seen plenty of wow factor given his situation.

 

https://twitter.com/MattBowen41/status/882590855877476352

 

By all accounts, Detroit had the worst run-blocking o-line in the league last year and the 2015 version wasn't much better if memory serves. The problem with judging vision sometimes with running backs is they often have to make the most out of the bad situations their offensive lines put them in. To give you some idea of the difference between Chicago and Detroit's lines last year, consider this:

 

Chicago was "stuffed" (stopped at the line or behind it) on 18 percent of its runs last year, which was slightly better than the league average.

Detroit was stuffed 23 percent of the time, tied with Seattle for the third-worst mark in the league. (Miami and Tampa Bay were tied for worst at 24 percent.)

 

To give you some sense on how bad Detroit's run-blocking was, Zach Zenner was stuffed on 14 of his 88 carries last year. Howard was stuffed 21 times on 252 carries.

 

Some of that is line, some of it is scheme, etc.. Having said that, when a RB is confident that one out of every four runs isn't going to end up with him getting hit/tackled in the backfield, his vision tends to be a bit better, the OC tends to call a few more runs and the players in general get a bit more confident the run play will work.

 

I'm not saying Abdullah is all-world and I'm not saying there isn't a chance he turns out to be league-average. But let's give the guy a shot behind an average o-line first.

[weepaws 2,452]

What do you think about the Eagles wr J Matthews this season with the team adding A Jeffery.

 

Last season he was awful, but his first two seasons he was a wr2.

 

I think he will return to form and become a wr2 once again this season and with Jeffery on the other side to take coverage from him and with the injury problems Jeffery as had I'm thinking Matthews could indeed be the better value pick.

 

How do you see it?

[Ray_T 587]

You really don't see the talent issue? Seeing the talent deficiency has benefited me when it comes to Abdullah. Tiny hands, can't catch, fumbles too often, hasn't shown an ability to run inside consistently. And he is small. Meh.

just so you know. Tiny hands isnt a talent. neither is fumbling too often.

 

I agree these are bad things. but that's not what I define as talent.

 

talent would be things such as acceleration, speed, ability to read the blocking and make the cut at the right time, route running ability, things like that.

 

in terms of talent, he's got it.

 

his problem (like I said earlier) was problems holding onto the football. if he gets hurt again people will start to question his durability as well.

 

if he has truly resolved his fumbling issues (like Tiki Barber did) then he can be the lead back. but the sample size last year was too small to determine for sure if he has conquered this problem.

 

Fumbling isnt a talent, and in 50-60% of cases the issue can be fixed with coaching. but some never resolve that issue.

 

to me that makes him dangerous to draft even if it is declared he is the starter. I'd love to have him as a RB3 but I'd be nervous if he was my RB2 and I would NOT want him as an RB1.

[Ray_T 587]

What do you think about the Eagles wr J Matthews this season with the team adding A Jeffery.

 

Last season he was awful, but his first two seasons he was a wr2.

 

I think he will return to form and become a wr2 once again this season and with Jeffery on the other side to take coverage from him and with the injury problems Jeffery as had I'm thinking Matthews could indeed be the better value pick.

 

How do you see it?

I think teams realized Matthews was the only receiver who could really hurt them on any play so they double covered him a lot.

 

the addition of Jeffery will ease that burden and it will be good for him. I am predicting a bounce back year. (provided the QB play allows it)

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

What do you think about the Eagles wr J Matthews this season with the team adding A Jeffery.

 

Last season he was awful, but his first two seasons he was a wr2.

 

I think he will return to form and become a wr2 once again this season and with Jeffery on the other side to take coverage from him and with the injury problems Jeffery as had I'm thinking Matthews could indeed be the better value pick.

 

How do you see it?

I don't think he is liked much in Philly, so I don't know that the team will go out of its way to make sure he is involved. Plus we don't know how Wentz will progress. He is most likely going to be thrust into the top spot eventually when an Alshon Jeffery soft tissue issue pops up. Idk that Wentz can put the ball where it needs to be consistently

[TimmySmith 2,782]

From the Skins perspective focusing on Crowder is a stretch. 3rd option on the team right now. Could be 4th if Doctson pans out. Best case is WR2. Most likely case is WR3. Sell early.

[delchay 6]

Ameer Abdullah, we haven't dismissed him yet due to his most glaring problem, he severely lacks talent? I think the guy should barely even be a backup as far as his "talent" is concerned. He hasn't shown me anything at all that suggests he even belongs in the discussion for lead back, on any team. He had a nice combine with some good measurable, but it just hasn't translated onto the field at all. Some guys its just all on paper.

He is on my do not draft list. He is a concussion waiting to happen...

[DrG 94]

Carolina really wanted McCaffery and when they grabbed Samuel, I thought the same thing - that they drafted two guys who don't completely fit with the qb and the system.

 

I didn't watch that much of Newton last year so maybe he's changed but I don't see a guy who stood out hitting his wr inside on touch passes. CMS precision and open field moxie might stand out more with a different type of qb

[DocNiner 44]

Lot of good things I've read in this thread that just confirms my saying that the Patriots WILL NOT win the superbowl this year. The SB winner will come from the NFC, bank!

[sirensong 111]

DAL storylines: there are only a couple of relevant issues. first is elliott--with the addition of hillman at RB, the team appears to be bracing for a suspension. with a full room including 2 FBs, this doesn't seem like a likely move unless a suspension is in the cards. that suggests a handcuff, but here's where it gets weird. while DMC is a very capable backup, a lot of analysts favor morris as a many-touches fill-in. so keep an eye on the 2nd team RB reps as camp progresses, and be aware of morris' potential.

 

2. the OL situation. there was supposed to be competition at RT, but there isn't--la'el is the unquestioned starter. that leaves a LG battle between green (the always-hurt former RT) and cooper (the always-hurt former top-10 pick). per broaddus--who is a big uglies connoisseur--green has been performing excellently (not just satisfactorily). there is a good chance that this year's line will be better than last, especially in pass pro. that brings us to...

 

3. dak. word out of camp is that dak is making a very serious effort to pass from the center of the pocket. according to interviews, he believes that opposing coordinators are going to try to limit his perimeter game and force him to beat them from the pocket, hitting the intermediate middle of the field instead of short crossers on rollouts. therefore he is making a concerted effort to settle down and go through his progression instead of trying to break contain. there is some nuance here--instead of being yet another "i want to prove that i'm blablabla" guy, he's thinking strategy rather than vanity. as a homer, what i hope that this means is that he's adding more arrows to his quiver, rather than planning to be something that he's not (like so many running QBs who try to magically become pure pocket guys and forget about their legs). steve young went through that transition the right way, and i'm hoping that dak can do the same. but it bears watching, given that he should be on the cusp of the top-10, especially in 6pt runTD leagues.

 

4. switzer. has ever a 4th round WR made more noise this early in camp? here's the thing--he's not a viable WRanything in fantasy, but he absolutely should be monitored as a PR in terms of DAL's D/ST (which should be monitored as a viable streaming candidate, given how many turnovers they have been producing already in camp). other than his return abilities, switzer's relevance is in terms of subtraction--particularly taking looks away from other players in the passing game. unlike whitehead--who had very limited ability as a receiver--switzer is a credible threat. word out of camp is that when people try to tackle him, it winds up looking like a tom&jerry episode. chances are very good that he's going to get a couple of targets per game, which comes out of other guys' totals. IMO, the guys he threatens most are witten (who will come off the field in 4-wide) and (surprisingly) dez. switz will be a gadget guy, and gadget guys cut into studs more than anyone else. so keep an eye on this as camp progresses.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Idk about Morris. He averaged 3.5 ypc with that line

[sirensong 111]

Idk about Morris. He averaged 3.5 ypc with that line

 

the team sees this as a rhythm issue--that he hasn't gotten enough carries over the course of a game. DMC can succeed on only a few attempts per game, while morris needs a lot of attempts in order to get going. this is why the handcuff situation should be monitored. without a zeke suspension, there's a good chance that morris will get cut outright (since DMC is the better spot player). if zeke does get suspended, there's a good chance that morris (a better ZBS runner) will start and DMC will remain in the relief role.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

the team sees this as a rhythm issue--that he hasn't gotten enough carries over the course of a game. DMC can succeed on only a few attempts per game, while morris needs a lot of attempts in order to get going. this is why the handcuff situation should be monitored. without a zeke suspension, there's a good chance that morris will get cut outright (since DMC is the better spot player). if zeke does get suspended, there's a good chance that morris (a better ZBS runner) will start and DMC will remain in the relief role.

He averaged 3.7 with the Redskins the year before

[Ray_T 587]

DAL storylines: there are only a couple of relevant issues. first is elliott--with the addition of hillman at RB, the team appears to be bracing for a suspension. with a full room including 2 FBs, this doesn't seem like a likely move unless a suspension is in the cards. that suggests a handcuff, but here's where it gets weird. while DMC is a very capable backup, a lot of analysts favor morris as a many-touches fill-in. so keep an eye on the 2nd team RB reps as camp progresses, and be aware of morris' potential.

 

2. the OL situation. there was supposed to be competition at RT, but there isn't--la'el is the unquestioned starter. that leaves a LG battle between green (the always-hurt former RT) and cooper (the always-hurt former top-10 pick). per broaddus--who is a big uglies connoisseur--green has been performing excellently (not just satisfactorily). there is a good chance that this year's line will be better than last, especially in pass pro. that brings us to...

 

3. dak. word out of camp is that dak is making a very serious effort to pass from the center of the pocket. according to interviews, he believes that opposing coordinators are going to try to limit his perimeter game and force him to beat them from the pocket, hitting the intermediate middle of the field instead of short crossers on rollouts. therefore he is making a concerted effort to settle down and go through his progression instead of trying to break contain. there is some nuance here--instead of being yet another "i want to prove that i'm blablabla" guy, he's thinking strategy rather than vanity. as a homer, what i hope that this means is that he's adding more arrows to his quiver, rather than planning to be something that he's not (like so many running QBs who try to magically become pure pocket guys and forget about their legs). steve young went through that transition the right way, and i'm hoping that dak can do the same. but it bears watching, given that he should be on the cusp of the top-10, especially in 6pt runTD leagues.

 

4. switzer. has ever a 4th round WR made more noise this early in camp? here's the thing--he's not a viable WRanything in fantasy, but he absolutely should be monitored as a PR in terms of DAL's D/ST (which should be monitored as a viable streaming candidate, given how many turnovers they have been producing already in camp). other than his return abilities, switzer's relevance is in terms of subtraction--particularly taking looks away from other players in the passing game. unlike whitehead--who had very limited ability as a receiver--switzer is a credible threat. word out of camp is that when people try to tackle him, it winds up looking like a tom&jerry episode. chances are very good that he's going to get a couple of targets per game, which comes out of other guys' totals. IMO, the guys he threatens most are witten (who will come off the field in 4-wide) and (surprisingly) dez. switz will be a gadget guy, and gadget guys cut into studs more than anyone else. so keep an eye on this as camp progresses.

The best or second best line in the NFL has lost a good chunk of the players on it.

 

I'm not sure I"m buying that the line is improved. That's something I'd have to see to believe.

 

It still would not surprise me to find that the line is still good. but that statement is pretty bold given what the Line was able to do last season.