Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
rottytiny

Thoughts on Winston this week?

Recommended Posts

Stafford is so much better than Winston that bringing him into this argument doesn't help your cause. Are you as a Bucs fan satisfied with Winston's performance to date?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand the optimism and logic behind the assessment. Bad defense and Very good weapons at WR and even TE. I'll still take the under on top 5 and I won't be surprised when he has a Winstonesque 4 INT game.

I will take the 4 int (-4) with the three td 330+ game.

 

Let’s see how that works for me:

 

330=13

3 tds=12

4 picks=-4

10 yds rushing=1

 

Total =22

 

I actually think this is close to his FLOOR....take away a td....so I would say 18 is his floor. Ceiling has to be in the 30s like yesterday.

 

Did you see his schedule? Wow....can’t get much better than that ROS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most leagues are -2 for INT but either way I predict he will have at least a game probably more below your artificial floor. If I'm wrong feel free to call me out. If I'm correct I won't say anything

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stafford is so much better than Winston that bringing him into this argument doesn't help your cause. Are you as a Bucs fan satisfied with Winston's performance to date?

 

"WAS" Stafford better after his first 46 decisions than Winston? It's easy for you talk with hindsight and say that Stafford is better than Winston, but what was your opinion of Stafford after the completion of 2012?

 

Stafford (first 46 starts): 18-28 record / 1142-1906 (59.92%) / 13,164 yards / 82 TD's / 55 Int's / 6.91 ypa / 83.11 passer rating

Winston (first 46 starts): 18-28 record / 969-1585 (61.14%) / 12,031 yards / 73 TD's / 46 Int's / 7.59 ypa / 87.92 passer rating

 

If you show those stats to people, I bet you're going to find that most of them will think that Winston would have the better career outcome than Stafford.

 

 

Jay Cutler and Brett Favre are the opposite sides of the same coin. I think Jameis Winston is Jay Cutler. A lot of Bucs fans think he's Brett Favre, and that the rest of the team, i.e. defense, oline, and RB's, are what is holding him back.

 

To note, Jay Cutler played 12 NFL seasons. Jay Cutler was a better fantasy QB than he was an NFL QB. In fantasy, it doesn't matter how good you actually are as a player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most leagues are -2 for INT but either way I predict he will have at least a game probably more below your artificial floor. If I'm wrong feel free to call me out. If I'm correct I won't say anything

 

Really? I've played in tons of leagues including re-draft, keeper, dynasty, and auction and I've NEVER ONCE played in a league where INT's are worth -2. Every time I see "standard scoring" from industry sites, they're using -1 as the points for INT's.

 

Also, I think his "floor" is based on expectations. No one expects Tom Brady to score less than 15-18 points, but in his last 24 games, he has 3 where he scored less than 10. That doesn't mean that people expect Tom Brady's "floor" to be 7.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

"WAS" Stafford better after his first 46 decisions than Winston? It's easy for you talk with hindsight and say that Stafford is better than Winston, but what was your opinion of Stafford after the completion of 2012?

 

Stafford (first 46 starts): 18-28 record / 1142-1906 (59.92%) / 13,164 yards / 82 TD's / 55 Int's / 6.91 ypa / 83.11 passer rating

Winston (first 46 starts): 18-28 record / 969-1585 (61.14%) / 12,031 yards / 73 TD's / 46 Int's / 7.59 ypa / 87.92 passer rating

 

If you show those stats to people, I bet you're going to find that most of them will think that Winston would have the better career outcome than Stafford.

 

 

Jay Cutler and Brett Favre are the opposite sides of the same coin. I think Jameis Winston is Jay Cutler. A lot of Bucs fans think he's Brett Favre, and that the rest of the team, i.e. defense, oline, and RB's, are what is holding him back.

 

To note, Jay Cutler played 12 NFL seasons. Jay Cutler was a better fantasy QB than he was an NFL QB. In fantasy, it doesn't matter how good you actually are as a player.

I don't ever remember the Lions being on the verge of moving on from stafford but it was a while ago so maybe there was a point when that happened. You didn't answer my question However, are you as a bucs fan satisfied with his performance to date? As bad as Mariota is playing at least he won a playoff game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Really? I've played in tons of leagues including re-draft, keeper, dynasty, and auction and I've NEVER ONCE played in a league where INT's are worth -2. Every time I see "standard scoring" from industry sites, they're using -1 as the points for INT's.

My league does -1 for every 2 interceptions thrown. You just can never know when the fault is on the receiver or something else that is not the QBs fault. Hail Marys, QBs just needing to take chances late in games or halves, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Really? I've played in tons of leagues including re-draft, keeper, dynasty, and auction and I've NEVER ONCE played in a league where INT's are worth -2. Every time I see "standard scoring" from industry sites, they're using -1 as the points for INT's.

 

-2 in my league on espn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't ever remember the Lions being on the verge of moving on from stafford but it was a while ago so maybe there was a point when that happened. You didn't answer my question However, are you as a bucs fan satisfied with his performance to date? As bad as Mariota is playing at least he won a playoff game.

 

Actually, I did answer your question. I said he's like Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler was a flawed, yet serviceable QB.

 

Who is talking about "moving on" from Winston? You're not hearing that out of Tampa. I know that for a fact!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i'm not saying they are moving on and i have heard no rumors or anything,

 

HOWEVER, after the "eat a W" thing last year....i can't imagine they are NOT seriously questioning whether or not this guy is the correct leader for them going forward. dude was either on drugs or is just a moron (or both)

 

 

Actually, I did answer your question. I said he's like Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler was a flawed, yet serviceable QB.

 

Who is talking about "moving on" from Winston? You're not hearing that out of Tampa. I know that for a fact!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, I'm sure there are fans and media who want him out. Yeah, the eating W's was stupid... but only because they lost and he played like crap that game, but if he threw for 350 yards and 3 TD's with a win, no one would be riding him for that.

 

I do think that there is a chance the Bucs do move on from Winston, but that'll be because they clean house. I can see them bringing in a new regime where they want their own guy, but I can tell you this, there better be "a guy" to go to or that regime will be very short lived.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Actually, I did answer your question. I said he's like Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler was a flawed, yet serviceable QB.

 

Who is talking about "moving on" from Winston? You're not hearing that out of Tampa. I know that for a fact!

ok I appreciate the answer, sorry I missed it the first time. If you are correct that he is Jay Cutler then his time in Tampa is likely coming to an end in the near future just like Cutlers did in Denver.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not running the Bucs though. From an NFL perspective, I don't think Winston is a guy who you can win a championship eith, but that doesn't mean he can't win you games.

 

I would replace him if I was in the position to do so, but I wouldn't be proactive about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most leagues are -2 for INT but either way I predict he will have at least a game probably more below your artificial floor. If I'm wrong feel free to call me out. If I'm correct I won't say anything

I would be shocked if he got less than 18 based on my leagues scoring, which I have shown above.

 

I may need him too because Matt Ryan doesn’t play as well outside of a dome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am in two leagues, both have 6 pt passing TD and both -2 int.

 

I think I played in one in the past which was 4 for TD and -1 for Int.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Actually, I did answer your question. I said he's like Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler was a flawed, yet serviceable QB.

 

Who is talking about "moving on" from Winston? You're not hearing that out of Tampa. I know that for a fact!

I live in FL and I have heard the rumors. The basis of the rumor was an alledged $20 mill payment due to Winston if he is on the roster at the end of March, so management has a big decision looming. That was part of the reason they did not want Fitz to keep playing, they wanted a Winston tryout to get the info on the big decision they have to make.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Would you consider that to be the norm though?

my main league been that way for over a decade. both leagues i'm in are that way but that's only 2, don't know for others.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my main league been that way for over a decade. both leagues i'm in are that way but that's only 2, don't know for others.

 

Are TD's worth 4 or 6?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I live in FL and I have heard the rumors. The basis of the rumor was an alledged $20 mill payment due to Winston if he is on the roster at the end of March, so management has a big decision looming. That was part of the reason they did not want Fitz to keep playing, they wanted a Winston tryout to get the info on the big decision they have to make.

 

As I said above, they could move on from Winston, but that'll be because of a house cleaning. There's no way Licht keeps his job if he says "yeah, I screwed up on Winston". Besides, I'm not so sure he did. He's not bad. He's just not great. You can win with "not bad", the Giants and Ravens have proven that. What the Bucs need to do is move on from Mike Smith. He's the real anchor. We also need a RB... aside from that, I think the Bucs are pretty good.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

As I said above, they could move on from Winston, but that'll be because of a house cleaning. There's no way Licht keeps his job if he says "yeah, I screwed up on Winston". Besides, I'm not so sure he did. He's not bad. He's just not great. You can win with "not bad", the Giants and Ravens have proven that. What the Bucs need to do is move on from Mike Smith. He's the real anchor. We also need a RB... aside from that, I think the Bucs are pretty good.

Mike Smith is gone, new DC promoted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 in both

 

So the norm then seems to be 6 pt TD's / -2 pt Int's and 4 pt TD's and -1 pt Int's? Do that seem reasonable?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mike Smith is gone, new DC promoted

 

Should have happened at the bye week so that they had more time to prepare. Oh well, better late than never though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yep

 

Ok, that's fine then. It would also make the catalyst of this even more appealing. In Tennis' comment, he used 4 pts per passing TD and -1 for an INT. In his scenario, he came out with 22 points... which would be 24 points in a league where Int's were -2 because the TD's are 6.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's sobering as one looks ahead to week 7. Roethlisberger, Darnold, Flacco, and Rivers all had their worst games of the season against CLE. Brees had his second worst. The outlier is Carr who turned in a best of 44.

 

At least the game is at home.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's sobering as one looks ahead to week 7. Roethlisberger, Darnold, Flacco, and Rivers all had their worst games of the season against CLE. Brees had his second worst. The outlier is Carr who turned in a best of 44.

 

At least the game is at home.

 

vs Pittsburgh, the weather was crappy

vs Darnold, he has no real weapons

vs Flacco, he isn't all that good

vs Rivers, he didn't really need to throw with Gordon running like wildfire.

vs Brees, they overlooked them after getting shellacked by Tampa the week before.

 

I see the Bucs putting up somewhere between 30-40 points. That said, if Tampa's OLine plays like it did vs the Bears, they'll struggle to score 17.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's sobering as one looks ahead to week 7. Roethlisberger, Darnold, Flacco, and Rivers all had their worst games of the season against CLE. Brees had his second worst. The outlier is Carr who turned in a best of 44.

 

At least the game is at home.

Have you forgotten the 30-40 mph winds in Cleveland opening game v. Pitt?

Rivers only threw 20 times.

Flacco is always mediocre.

Darnold is a baby still learning

 

Cleve D is overrated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have you forgotten the 30-40 mph winds in Cleveland opening game v. Pitt?

Rivers only threw 20 times.

Flacco is always mediocre.

Darnold is a baby still learning

 

Cleve D is overrated.

 

I won't go that far, but perspective is needed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, I think that folks may still have a tendency to underrate Cleveland's defense.

 

Darnold and Flacco can't be negated in the above exercise. If Darnold can be said to lack weapons or lack experience and Flacco can be said to lack talent, these conditions held true across all their games. The fact remains they did worse against CLE than anybody else.

 

Rivers threw 20 passes but completed only 11, his worst completion % of the season and it came against CLE. If he didn't need to throw as much because Gordon was running wild, one could argue that the suddenly aroused Barber might also get some run, too, cutting into Winston's numbers.

 

I'll concede the weather game may be a poor data point, but somehow I wouldn't be surprised that if it had been dry that Roethlisberger might still have turned in a clunker. I subbed for him that day and, no, i hadn't forgotten about the weather.

 

I'm still starting Winston. My tight roster and the coming bye week doesn't leave me much choice. But I'm tempering expectations. The numbers suggest that CLE has shown more ability to stymie QBs this year than i would have expected. (Edit: Yahoo lists CLE as 26th against QBs this year...not very generous.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Week 1 (home): Roethlisberger threw for 335 yards and 1 TD. He also turned the ball over 5 times.

Week 2 (away): Brees threw for 243 yards and 2 TDs.

Week 3 (home): Darnold threw for 169 yards and 2 picks.

Week 4 (away): 437 yards, 4 TD and 2 int for Carr.

Week 5 (home): 298 yards, 0 TD and 1 int for Flacco

Week 6 (home): 207 yards, 2 TD and 1 int for Rivers.

Seems to me that Cleveland defense is better at home than on the road. I'm fine rolling with Winston at home against the Browns this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Week 1 (home): Roethlisberger threw for 335 yards and 1 TD. He also turned the ball over 5 times.

Week 2 (away): Brees threw for 243 yards and 2 TDs.

Week 3 (home): Darnold threw for 169 yards and 2 picks.

Week 4 (away): 437 yards, 4 TD and 2 int for Carr.

Week 5 (home): 298 yards, 0 TD and 1 int for Flacco

Week 6 (home): 207 yards, 2 TD and 1 int for Rivers.

Seems to me that Cleveland defense is better at home than on the road. I'm fine rolling with Winston at home against the Browns this week.

Good info but be careful of trends. They have a way of breaking just as you set to utilize them. Check Rodgers game log...good, meh, good, meh, good, then what was supposed to be meh ended up his 2nd best game, vs me of course. Trends are always trends until they aren’t. But I do think Winnie the Poo is a decent play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not saying the guy is matchup proof by any means, but you're taking about the #1 QB in the league over the last 5 games of last year, and pretty much tore it up in his first full game back this season. He has more weapons, still no run game and maybe less defense than last year...what's not to like? Yes, he's going to turn the ball over...it just gives him greater potential for garbage time stats. I draft him but had to drop him because Wilson started so slow I'm all in Jameis bringing my fantasy team lots of W's to eat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hop on his back again this week fellows......he’s fresh and hungry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×