Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars

[The Football Guru 210]

While the argument could be made a team with a quarterback concern, offensive line issues and Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon already on the roster, Fournette is the right pick here and automatically becomes a threat to be a 300-carry threat on a yearly basis. Fournette occasionally gets knocked as a back unable to contribute in the passing game, but it is more because LSU chose not to use him very often in that area. Fournette brings instant credibility to the Jaguars' offense and is one of few backs in any draft who can be considered a tone-setter, as he is one of the most powerful runners in recent memory. Yeldon will likely settle in as a complementary/part-time third-down option, while Ivory will almost certainly move into more of a pure backup role.

[weepaws 2,451]

Rb1

[tanatastic 2,061]

Rb1

All in on Zeke paid off last year, you think "The Fournicater" can do similar?

[weepaws 2,451]

First thing welcome back.

 

No I don't think he can do what Zeke did.

 

Jags don't have the Oline.

 

But he's a stud and I do see him as a low Rb1.

[giraldi02 470]

Too high of ADP.

 

I'll buy Bortles big time though. Especially with his ADP. A whole lot less responsibility on 1st and 2nd down. Manageable 3rd downs more frequent.

[weepaws 2,451]

Would agree with that, He should help Bortles out.

[polecatt 399]

I agree, Low RB1.

He won't put up numbers like Zeke because the team around him is much worse and he's not the receiver nor does he have the break away speed Zeke does.

I could see him putting up something like 1100-1200 yards and 8-10 TDs. Maybe better if things click for the Jaguars a little better this season.

He should get the ball a whole lot in any case and I expect pretty good return.

I know they have Yeldon and Ivory but they aren't the same caliber player Fournette is. He'll dominate the carries early on.

[Maulers1973 117]

I'm not high on him. He's a 2 down banger which isn't where the ultra production is at in the NFL these days. Guys can scratch out a living doing it; ie Beast Mode & Blount. Though, I don't see him as anyhwere near the top 10 in FF points by seasons end.

 

However, I am bumping A Rob up my WR list a bit.

[weepaws 2,451]

He's drops to a high rb2 now.

 

Mixon takes his spot already as a low rb1.

 

Based on ppr leagues.

[DrG 94]

The knock on Aron was that he doesn't get open against the better cbs. Tho I think this still helps him

[crackills 19]

I would take him in the 4th in a 12team draft, but no earlier..

- weak oline

-2 down back

-weak QB, means facing 8+ fronts.

[weepaws 2,451]

So your talking about a ppr league ?

[shutdown 40]

Would agree with that, He should help Bortles out.

Depends on what you mean by "help"

 

Will it help him be a better NFL QB because they have a more respectable run game and hes not always playing in obvious passing situations - likely.

 

Will it help his fantasy stats now that the Jags are gearing up to be able to play defense and run the ball more? Perhaps not if they can actually play this style of ball.

 

I think they would like to make Bortles more of the dreaded "game manager" instead of what he's had to do over the past two seasons.

[weepaws 2,451]

I disagree.

 

I think they want Bortles to make better decisions.

 

And I good and sold run game would help him be put into better situations.

 

Now the rest is up to Bortles and the coaching staff.

 

I think that there is no question with Fournette they should have a better running game than they had.

 

So that alone should help Bortles at the same time I think help him score more ff points.

 

Remember in 2015 Bortles was third in ff points for qbs and last season he was eighth.

 

So it's not like he's been an awful ff Qb.

 

And last season he received very little help from the run game and from a lot of drop passes.

[giraldi02 470]

The reason the Jaguars run game with Bortles hasn't succeeded has been because they've been trailing the majority of the time. It's also why despite his horrible play as a real life QB, his fantasy numbers look great. Garbage time is Bortles time.

The major problem is Bortles' propensity for turnovers. The interceptions don't stand out overwhelmingly, but the fumbles do. He's had 29 fumbles in his three seasons. Only eight of those have been recovered by Jax.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars running game averaged 4.2 yards per carry both seasons. Unfortunately, they had 354 carries (3rd lowest) in 2015 and 392 carries (9th worst) in 2016. Why?

60% of the Jaguars plays run were when they were trailing in 2016.

65.5% of the Jaguars plays run were when they were trailing in 2015.

The Jaguars defense is improving though. Believe it or not, the Jags defense only allowed 100+ rushing yards in six games. Over the last month of the season they were playing some solid defense against primarily divisional opponents. The Jags were actually ranked 9th in the NFL in defensive yards allowed per drive last year.

Shorter field position, limiting Bortles' responsibilities, and having a consistent rushing attack should help everyone on that offense in a big way. Jags also look like a great buy right now for their O/U win total. It opened at 5.5 games.

[Ray_T 587]

The reason the Jaguars run game with Bortles hasn't succeeded has been because they've been trailing the majority of the time. It's also why despite his horrible play as a real life QB, his fantasy numbers look great. Garbage time is Bortles time.

 

The major problem is Bortles' propensity for turnovers. The interceptions don't stand out overwhelmingly, but the fumbles do. He's had 29 fumbles in his three seasons. Only eight of those have been recovered by Jax.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars running game averaged 4.2 yards per carry both seasons. Unfortunately, they had 354 carries (3rd lowest) in 2015 and 392 carries (9th worst) in 2016. Why?

 

60% of the Jaguars plays run were when they were trailing in 2016.

65.5% of the Jaguars plays run were when they were trailing in 2015.

The Jaguars defense is improving though. Believe it or not, the Jags defense only allowed 100+ rushing yards in six games. Over the last month of the season they were playing some solid defense against primarily divisional opponents. The Jags were actually ranked 9th in the NFL in defensive yards allowed per drive last year.

 

Shorter field position, limiting Bortles' responsibilities, and having a consistent rushing attack should help everyone on that offense in a big way. Jags also look like a great buy right now for their O/U win total. It opened at 5.5 games.

Well, I think the propensity for turnovers is also a function of playing on a bad team.

 

when you are down 2 TD's and playing in the 4th quarter, you dont have the luxury to play it safe. you need to score points quickly and the defense knows it.

 

So as a QB, you probably will make some higher risk throws to try to make the comeback because you dont want to have to kick it away and allow the other teams offense to go to work.

 

I'm not suggesting all of his INT's come this way, but I'd bet at least a couple do. Let's face facts, if you are up 14 points, you just dont make the same risky throw because you can afford to throw the ball away (or take the sack)

[weepaws 2,451]

I would agree, I can see the Jags winning six games