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Early Rookie QB & RB Fantasy Rankings

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On our latest podcast we ranked our top rookie QB's and RB's in fantasy football for 2017. The lists below are those who will be drafted/potential waiver-wire additions as the year goes on, but I was just curious to see how everyone else was ranking these positions.

 

Our podcast is found in the signature in case you want to hear the reasons behind the rankings as well. I look forward to seeing everyone's early rankings!

 

QB: 1. D. Watson (Hou) 2. M. Trubisky (Chi) 3. D. Kizer (Cle) 4. P. Mahomes (KC)

 

RB: 1. L. Fournette (Jac) 2. C. McCaffrey (Car) 3. J. Williams (GB) 4. D. Cook (Minn) 5. J. Mixon (Cin) 6. S. Perine (Wash) 7. M. Mack (Ind) 8. D. Foreman (Hou) 9. K. Hunt (KC)

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Non PPR?

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J williams is 3?

He may end up 3rd best if their drafted RBs

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J williams is 3?

I'm not sold as Montgomery as a starting RB in the NFL. As I mention on the podcast, GB is basically the only team in the league he'd start for. I like the upside of Williams and wouldn't be shocked to see him compete for most touches of Packers' RB's

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WRs?

Working on WR's and TE's right now and will have my list created and a podcast to go along with it within the next few days. I'll post the rankings then as well

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1) Mixon

2) Fournette

3) Perine

4) Cook

5) McCafferty would be #3 if Cam doesn't continue to vulture Tds

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Watson

Kessler

 

Only two rookie qbs that I think will hold down the job.

 

ok non ppr changes it up for me

 

1. Fournette

2. Mixon, I still think Hill will be the short yardage Rb, I don't trust the Bengals coaching staff to do the right thing, do you? I'm just saying.

3. K Hunt, I just simply think he's better than Ware, and he's better the West in the passing game. Because I don't trust the Bengales coaching staff I'm really close of moving Hunt into the second postion.

4. J Williams, I think the OP made a great point about Ty Montgomery not being able to hold down the starting job, and I agree.

5. Mccaffery, Good landing spot and I do think he will be more involved in the running game then I think he will be.

 

Not yet ranked

 

Cook, they seem to be paying L Murray a good amount of money for him just to sit on the bench. In a non ppr I see L Murray getting the short yardage work.

 

Perine. I think he's better than Kelley but I'm not to sure he will win the job outright. I see a true RBBC.

 

Mack. I think this player landed in a great spot, and he's loaded with talent , especially in the open field in the passing game.

He is someone I will target for a late pickup.

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Watson

Kessler

 

Only two rookie qbs that I think will hold down the job.

 

ok non ppr changes it up for me

 

1. Fournette

2. Mixon, I still think Hill will be the short yardage Rb, I don't trust the Bengals coaching staff to do the right thing, do you? I'm just saying.

3. K Hunt, I just simply think he's better than Ware, and he's better the West in the passing game. Because I don't trust the Bengales coaching staff I'm really close of moving Hunt into the second postion.

4. J Williams, I think the OP made a great point about Ty Montgomery not being able to hold down the starting job, and I agree.

5. Mccaffery, Good landing spot and I do think he will be more involved in the running game then I think he will be.

 

Not yet ranked

 

Cook, they seem to be paying L Murray a good amount of money for him just to sit on the bench. In a non ppr I see L Murray getting the short yardage work.

 

Perine. I think he's better than Kelley but I'm not to sure he will win the job outright. I see a true RBBC.

 

Mack. I think this player landed in a great spot, and he's loaded with talent , especially in the open field in the passing game.

He is someone I will target for a late pickup.

I like it. What are your thoughts on Foreman? I feel like he landed in a great situation as well and could see a decent amount of touches as a rookie. I think Houston learned last year that Miller is most effective when kept as fresh as possible

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Im not sure what to make of Foreman at this time.

 

With Waston being a rookie QB I think that alone will allow Miller to be a three down Rb again.

 

So I'm not all that high on Foreman at this time.

 

But I do agree with you about Miller and why the Dolphins kept limiting his work load.

 

I think the Texans indeed learn that last season, but they will need Miller experence in the back field to help out their young QB.

 

Thanks for the reply and the post great question.

 

Can't wait to see the Wr and Te.

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Im not sure what to make of Foreman at this time.

 

With Waston being a rookie QB I think that alone will allow Miller to be a three down Rb again.

 

So I'm not all that high on Foreman at this time.

 

But I do agree with you about Miller and why the Dolphins kept limiting his work load.

 

I think the Texans indeed learn that last season, but they will need Miller experence in the back field to help out their young QB.

 

Thanks for the reply and the post great question.

 

Can't wait to see the Wr and Te.

I think Millers subpar numbers were also a result of poor QB play. Once teams realize that the pass game (which revolved around Hopkins) wasnt working because the QB cant or wont throw deep to him, and take into account the poor line play it makes sense to stack the box, double up on the coverage for Hopkins, and make sure the QB has lots of pressure on him.

 

it worked like a charm.

 

I am not certain that Osweiler was 100% to blame for the poor offense, but he certainly wasnt good enough to overcome the handicaps he had to work with.

 

I'd blame at least 40% of the offensive problems on the subpar line. I'd put 30% of the blame on the QB's shoulders. 20% would be coaching and play calling.

 

I'd also lay 10% of the problems onto Miller who I feel needed to be better.

 

Overall, miller was okay, but people really felt he was gonna put up a career year and end up an all star.

 

The reality is that this did not happen. but it wasn't all his fault. He needs to take some blame, but the majority of the problems in Houston was in the supporting cast on Offense.

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I can agree with what you said Ray.

 

But when you look at last season and Millers stats they are interesting.

 

In his first seven games Miller avg 4.2 yards per rush att on 136 rushes. And he had 25 targets in the passing game.

 

His last seven games he avg 3.6 yards per rush on 132 rushes and he had only 14 targets in the passing game, stats are just regular season games.

 

I think Miller will indeed be the starter, but I look for Foremen to play more and more as the season goes on.

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Im not sure what to make of Foreman at this time.

 

With Waston being a rookie QB I think that alone will allow Miller to be a three down Rb again.

 

So I'm not all that high on Foreman at this time.

 

But I do agree with you about Miller and why the Dolphins kept limiting his work load.

 

I think the Texans indeed learn that last season, but they will need Miller experence in the back field to help out their young QB.

 

Thanks for the reply and the post great question.

 

Can't wait to see the Wr and Te.

Yea, that's very true as well. Houston is a real wild card for me this year. I replied to a Twitter poll a couple of days ago asking who would win the AFC South and it really stumped me. I think you can make a case for everyone besides Jacksonville at this time.

 

I have Miller in a keeper league and I'm hoping to land Foreman as a handcuff, so I'll probably have a little stock in him in 2017.

 

As for WR and TE rankings, thinking they should be posted by Thursday!

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Foreman In a keeper league is a very good move.

 

And I do agree about the AFC South.

 

If Bortles can get his stuff together and Robinson stops dropping passes I think they can be in the mix to win that divison.

 

It looks like it will be a fun divison to follow this season.

 

Thanks for the reply.

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I think Miller will indeed be the starter, but I look for Foremen to play more and more as the season goes on.

I almost completely disagree with everything you say here. O'Brien has talked repeatedly about lightening Miller's workload early, not late. Miller is a good to very good option in the passing game, Foreman is perhaps the worst blocker I evaluated in this draft class, he did not catch many balls at Texas and he is not exactly a bulldozer at the goal line despite his size. I do actually think Foreman is a capable receiver, but I don't think we'll see that from him anytime soon.

 

O'Brien loves Miller, and I think you can attribute Miller's statistical falloff in the second half of last season to a number of injuries he was playing through. The o-line should be a bit better this year with the return of Nick Martin, and any improvement from the quarterback position should lighten the box a bit. The Houston defense should also be able to create favorable run situations for the offense in most games as well, so while I think Foreman will get some work, I don't think Miller's actual workload is going to shrink very much if at all.

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I disagree with your disagreement.

 

Last two seasons Millers first half avg per rush as been 4.8 and 4.2.

 

Second half of the season it's been 3.6 and 3.6.

 

I don't disagree about what you say about Foreman, and that's the reason why I don't see a drop in Millers work load early in the season.

 

And when is the last time we've heard coaches speaking about doing something and they end up doing the opposite.

 

Remember when they where going to run Spiller until he pukes. ( not the Texans )

 

If they start a rookie at QB they will ride Miller early and often if for any reason to protect their young QB.

 

And Foreman will be on the bench early and often learning the game and waiting for his opportunity that will come later during the season.

 

Blue is not the answer and I think that's why they drafted Foreman.

 

Thanks for your reply I enjoy them.

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I disagree with your disagreement.

 

Last two seasons Millers first half avg per rush as been 4.8 and 4.2.

 

Second half of the season it's been 3.6 and 3.6.

 

I don't disagree about what you say about Foreman, and that's the reason why I don't see a drop in Millers work load early in the season.

 

And when is the last time we've heard coaches speaking about doing something and they end up doing the opposite.

 

Remember when they where going to run Spiller until he pukes. ( not the Texans )

 

If they start a rookie at QB they will ride Miller early and often if for any reason to protect their young QB.

 

And Foreman will be on the bench early and often learning the game and waiting for his opportunity that will come later during the season.

 

Blue is not the answer and I think that's why they drafted Foreman.

 

Thanks for your reply I enjoy them.

There's more in here I agree with :thumbsup:

 

He's been in Houston one season, so I don't think throwing his final year in Miami is all that applicable to his second-half fades. Does it potentially point out a trend? Yes. But what if this year he goes from 4.2 to 4.6? Then we downgraded a guy simply b/c he wasn't a "second-half (of the season) runner" for two years. There are usually a host of factors as to why a player goes through the statistical ups and downs he does. It's never enough to say a guy falls off in the second half of the season - we have to look for the reason(s) why.

 

O'Brien has already admitted he overworked Miller early last season; he said nothing about not working him too hard late in the season. I also said nothing about O'Brien saying was going to run him into the ground or anything of the like. The reason you bring in a Foreman type is so you can keep pounding the rock when Miller needs a blow.

 

Now the stuff I can agree with: regardless of whether Savage or Watson get the call, I see the Texans running early and often to protect the QB. And Blue is definitely not the answer, which I think is exactly the reason Foreman was drafted. I think it is perfectly reasonable to suspect Foreman might have some games with 10-15 carries in September, but O'Brien is going to need to completely reverse field on Miller (or Miller will have to get hurt) before Foreman steals a bunch of his touches late in the season.

 

At least that is the way I see it.

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Loving this conversation guys.

 

one other factor to consider....

 

Miller is on a large contract.

 

6.5 mil per year.

 

Right now the dead cap space is 8.5 mil if they wanted to dump him.

 

when you sign a player to a large contract, there is generally a desire on the part of management to make this work. (basically they wanna look good for signing him)

 

So he will get all the carries they think he can handle.

 

He did seem to wear down late in the year in both Miami and Houston. But in Houston they had to run him a lot early. They had a young QB who was little more than a raw rookie and they wanted to take pressure off of him with the run game.

 

Situation is the same this year, and likely they wanted a RB who could take significant carries. This would (hopefully) keep Miller from wearing down late in the year.

 

I agree with the decision. Only time will tell if it was truly the right one.

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Loving this conversation guys.

 

one other factor to consider....

 

Miller is on a large contract.

 

6.5 mil per year.

 

Right now the dead cap space is 8.5 mil if they wanted to dump him.

 

when you sign a player to a large contract, there is generally a desire on the part of management to make this work. (basically they wanna look good for signing him)

 

So he will get all the carries they think he can handle.

 

He did seem to wear down late in the year in both Miami and Houston. But in Houston they had to run him a lot early. They had a young QB who was little more than a raw rookie and they wanted to take pressure off of him with the run game.

 

Situation is the same this year, and likely they wanted a RB who could take significant carries. This would (hopefully) keep Miller from wearing down late in the year.

 

I agree with the decision. Only time will tell if it was truly the right one.

Yep, the contract has to be considered as well.

 

Also, I recall a report at some point last season that suggested he put on some weight in order to prepare to be the feature back. I do remember watching him at times last year and thinking he didn't look as explosive as he did in Miami.

 

I think there is a general sense Miller disappointed last year, but I don't see it that way (at least not to the degree of being a borderline bust anyway). Outside of volume, what exactly did he have going for him? Even through injury, poor o-line play and gawd-awful QB play (among other factors), he still topped 1,000 yards rushing in 14 games. Houston (I mean Osweiler) didn't use him much as a receiver either, which I would argue he did exceptionally well as a Dolphin.

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It comes down to this for me.

 

I don't believe coach talk in May so I think they won't rest Miller early in the season.

 

And because of that reason.

 

I think Miller will be used less later in the season and this is where Foreman will then be used more often.

 

And that's the way I see it.

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Its a fine point but Miller will still see the lions share of all three down work barring injury.

 

The Foreman kid is deceptively shifty for his size and has above average vision from what I've seen but he sucks in pass pro and should only serve as a breather back for Miller this year, if he ever truly carves out a role.

 

I see a little bit of Corey Dillon in Foreman, but he's nowhere near as patient w his line setting up lanes for him to exploit.

 

He landed well in Houston, so he'll get the chance to learn on the job. Thinking he's going to supplant Miller for anything more than a few touches a game is stretching things imo.

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For QBs it's going to be whoever is playing. Not sure any of them will be of much fantasy value this season.

Deshaun Watson may be the most likely to start and most likely to score points because he will run some.

At RB there are several good prospects but the top guys are the ones that are certainly going to get the ball a lot.

That would be Fournette, who I put first. McCaffrey will be a monster in PPR and pretty good standard. Joe Mixon will have competition for carries but should see action from the start and more as the season progresses.

Anyone outside of those guys I think may struggle to get a lot of touches at some point or even all of the season.

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For QBs it's going to be whoever is playing. Not sure any of them will be of much fantasy value this season.

Deshaun Watson may be the most likely to start and most likely to score points because he will run some.

At RB there are several good prospects but the top guys are the ones that are certainly going to get the ball a lot.

That would be Fournette, who I put first. McCaffrey will be a monster in PPR and pretty good standard. Joe Mixon will have competition for carries but should see action from the start and more as the season progresses.

Anyone outside of those guys I think may struggle to get a lot of touches at some point or even all of the season.

It's definitely hard to trust and project rookies. I like your list of those who should contribute early, but it always seems like one or two guys will surprise and have a season that benefits those who have that player in fantasy. Jordan Howard was that guy last year, so my initial rankings are based on who is most likely to get the touches and potentially produce when given the opportunity.

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It comes down to this for me.

 

I don't believe coach talk in May so I think they won't rest Miller early in the season.

 

And because of that reason.

 

I think Miller will be used less later in the season and this is where Foreman will then be used more often.

 

And that's the way I see it.

 

Just to be clear, the O'Brien conversation I"m referencing was in March (obviously before the draft). It sure sounds O'Brien is pretty happy with him:

http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-2/Tough-guy-Lamar-Miller-a-RB-Bill-OBrien-counts-on/e536d762-02cd-4fa5-9c44-4d7a6590f847

 

Here's the article about O'Brien riding him too hard early on (again from March):

http://www.espn.com/blog/houston-texans/post/_/id/19159/texans-bill-obrien-lamar-millers-workload-was-too-heavy-early-on

 

You may end up being right, who knows? It's May and Miller could get hurt in Week 1. Like you, I could care less about coach-speak in May as well, which is usually more motivational in nature and rarely ever accurate.

 

I really didn't get into this thread in order to debate Miller's workload either, just to set some misconceptions about his 2017 prospects straight.

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