Keenan Allen v Brandon Marshall

[xenon 2]

I am finding I am often faced with this mock draft decision (which I think will likely translate to my real draft) and seek feedback as to who some of you would take and why.

Thanks.

 

PPR

[giraldi02 470]

Allen by a hair

[phillygrrl08 139]

I'm leaning towards Allen, because he was on fire before he got hurt last year and I get the feeling that Marshall won't be as good as he was last year.

[Hype_Train252 4]

Allen by a hair

Ditto, Marshall is probably the more consistent week to week receiver but doesn't possess the same ceiling week to week as Keenan. Plus the SD defense is gonna suck = more shootouts.

[weepaws 2,457]

Marshall

[ICEMAN 38]

I just faced this situation in an actual draft and selected Marshall. He has more of a track record of high performance and is not coming off of an injury.

 

ICEMAN

[Mike Nice 40]

PPR?

 

I am torn on Keenan Allen. Marshall is a proven stud and can prove to be an alite top 5 in that offense. Allen has given you half a year.

[polecatt 401]

Marshall and it's not close.

I'm sorry but I've heard the potential on Keenan Allen for a while now, and I'm not saying it won't eventually pan out but he's in the show me stage. A half a great season shortened by injury doesn't trump the numerous great seasons, including last, by Marshall.

[BobSanders_33 127]

I'd go Marshall. Allen just gets hurt too often. He catches a lot of balls in the middle of the field and takes hits. His yards per catch are 10.8. compared to 13.8 for Brandon Marshall. I also think that Marshall is a much better red zone target.

[Little Big Head 6]

I'm expecting Marshall to regress a little but even so I think he's a lock for great production barring injury. The Jets have nothing outside of Marshall/Decker. Allen doesn't have the track record and has a little more competition in Benjamin, Gates and I love the upside of Tyrell Willliams as well. I'd go Marshall but it's pretty close for me in PPR given the pace Allen was on last year

[Maulers1973 117]

Interesting dilemma. I'm really high on Allen, but I do have Marshall ranked ahead of him. They're close, but given the choice I would select Marshall.

[the spanker 28]

Marshall and it's not close.

I'm sorry but I've heard the potential on Keenan Allen for a while now, and I'm not saying it won't eventually pan out but he's in the show me stage. A half a great season shortened by injury doesn't trump the numerous great seasons, including last, by Marshall.I

 

Your statement mirrors my own. I prefer the guy who has done it over multiple seasons.

[Squintz82 45]

Marshall is the primary red zone target. That gives him a huge bump in my book.

[Poker Joker 7]

PPR: I'd go with Allen.

Standard: Marshall

[tanatastic 2,061]

PPR: I'd go with Allen.

 

Standard: Marshall

Marshalls 109 rec last year not enough for you to respect him in ppr? How bout his 6 seasons of over 100 vs Allens none above 71? This is not even close, Marshall is in a completely different tier than Allen in all categories of wr stats.

[cotarice12 18]

In a full ppr it's pretty close for me, and in a standard league it's not, but regardless, I still prefer Marshall. Marshall gets the edge in the red zone as well as the types of routes run that could lead to touchdowns. While I think he definitely takes a step back from last year, 90-1200 and 10 seems a pretty safe floor barring injury. Look at his career #'s. He's around 100 catches every year and double digit td's.

 

As a Chargers fan, I love what Allen brings to the offense, especially as Rivers and Gates get older. That said, his red zone numbers haven't been great and as someone said above, the types of routes he runs are conducive to taking some big hits. If he stays healthy for a full season I can see 120+ catches for 1300 yards, but not more than 7 scores. I'm not sure I see him staying healthy for a full 16 though.

[xenon 2]

In this tier of receivers (if you are drafting 10-12), who might some of you like to pair with Marshall in a PPR?

Dez and Robinson are usually gone at this point leaving Allen, Evans, Nelson, Cooks, Jeffrey and Cooper. I'm in the 12 hole with plans to go WR/WR and hopes of getting either Marshall and/or Allen or both. If not to pair Allen with Marshall, what's the consensus who you'd like to pair with him?

 

I think the feedback above on Marshall is great and based on that, he gets the edge.

 

D Thomas just scares me this year with the QB in DEN...

[yseguy22 8]

Marshall.

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

Marshall if you want safe... Allen if you want upside.

[weepaws 2,457]

Do you believe that Allen as more upside potential than Marshall ?

[tanatastic 2,061]

Marshall if you want safe... Allen if you want upside.

I think Marshall has both. Where is his downside? I keep feeling like Keenans ceiling is Marshalls floor. 90-100 1000-1300 6-9.

 

I feel like alot of people are sky high on Keenan, a guy who has been injured and has yet to put together a big season. I dont like wrs that have their assumed big breakout baked into their draft value.

[Maulers1973 117]

I'd pair Marshall with ARob or Cooks or maybe even Green.

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

I think Marshall has both. Where is his downside? I keep feeling like Keenans ceiling is Marshalls floor. 90-100 1000-1300 6-9.

 

I feel like alot of people are sky high on Keenan, a guy who has been injured and has yet to put together a big season. I dont like wrs that have their assumed big breakout baked into their draft value.

 

I think Allen's ceiling is much higher than that. He has 120/1500/14 potential. He's the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd option because of their pass happy offense and lack of ability to run. Allen definitely has the track record of getting hurt so he is risky, but if he stays healthy, he's like the Antonio Brown of the Chargers. The ONLY reason he's not considered a top 3 fantasy pick this year is because he missed half a season last year. Had he finished the way he started... he's in the Brown/Julio/Beckham conversation... Marshall isn't in that.

 

I know that Marshall has done that in the past, but at 32... and considering that while's he done that in the past, he never did it twice in a row. I think a reasonable expectation for Marshall is 95 / 1100 / 9... and I think that's safe. In New York, Forte is a quality option... so is Decker. Plus, they're more likely to be a more evened out offense. I think expecting a 32 year old WR to have back to back career seasons is asking for a bit too much.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

I think Allen's ceiling is much higher than that. He has 120/1500/14 potential. He's the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd option because of their pass happy offense and lack of ability to run. Allen definitely has the track record of getting hurt so he is risky, but if he stays healthy, he's like the Antonio Brown of the Chargers.

 

I know that Marshall has done that in the past, but at 32... and considering that while's he done that in the past, he never did it twice in a row. I think a reasonable expectation for Marshall is 95 / 1100 / 9... and I think that's safe. In New York, Forte is a quality option... so is Decker. Plus, they're more likely to be a more evened out offense. I think expecting a 32 year old WR to have back to back career seasons is asking for a bit too much.

It is prob asking alot of him. Also he has had multiple back to back 100 catch seasons, 3 in a row and then 2 in a row, so dont know what you mean by "never did it twice in a row". Those numbers are silly for Keenan, 1500 14? You are dreaming, as usual.

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

It is prob asking alot of him. Also he has had multiple back to back 100 catch seasons, 3 in a row and then 2 in a row, so dont know what you mean by "never did it twice in a row". Those numbers are silly for Keenan, 1500 14? You are dreaming, as usual.

 

Your mixing the order. Marshall never had back to back 1500 yard seasons. Asking him to do that is asking a lot. That number is what I think Allen's ceiling is. He was one pace for 1450 last year (and that's with getting hurt just before half time of a game where he already had 5 for 35 and a touchdown. Last year he was on pace for 134/1450/8. Thinking his ceiling is 120/1500/14 is hardly dreaming. You want to say 10 TD's is more reasonable than 14, ok, I'll concede to that, but it's still higher than what I think Marshall will get. Don't really know what else I was dreaming on... I think I've been quite reasonable.

[Poker Joker 7]

Marshalls 109 rec last year not enough for you to respect him in ppr? How bout his 6 seasons of over 100 vs Allens none above 71? This is not even close, Marshall is in a completely different tier than Allen in all categories of wr stats.

Marshall's numbers are fine. Personally, though, I'm not a fan of his quarterback. Fitzpatrick looked good, last year, but he's really only had one other decent season where he's looked that good. I could see him regressing and bringing Marshall and the rest of the team with him.

[weepaws 2,457]

I'm still picking Marshall , but I do agree with the above post .

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

It is prob asking alot of him. Also he has had multiple back to back 100 catch seasons, 3 in a row and then 2 in a row, so dont know what you mean by "never did it twice in a row". Those numbers are silly for Keenan, 1500 14? You are dreaming, as usual.

 

 

 

Your mixing the order. Marshall never had back to back 1500 yard seasons. Asking him to do that is asking a lot. That number is what I think Allen's ceiling is. He was one pace for 1450 last year (and that's with getting hurt just before half time of a game where he already had 5 for 35 and a touchdown. Last year he was on pace for 134/1450/8. Thinking his ceiling is 120/1500/14 is hardly dreaming. You want to say 10 TD's is more reasonable than 14, ok, I'll concede to that, but it's still higher than what I think Marshall will get. Don't really know what else I was dreaming on... I think I've been quite reasonable.

 

 

Just to add to this thought. I must not be the only one dreaming. FFToday's projections have Allen with 115 receptions, 1380 yards, and 8 TD's. Guess my 120 for 1500 isn't too far off eh? I did concede that 10 TD's would be reasonable than 14. They also have Marshall at 83 for 1177 and 9 TD's. Looks like again that my 95/1100/9 isn't too far off of what someone else (who gets paid for this), thinks.

 

In my league, that's about a 50 point difference... 3 fpg. So, I'll stand by my original statement, if you want upside, take Allen. If you want safe, take Marshall.

Just to add to this thought. I must not be the only one dreaming. FFToday's projections have Allen with 115 receptions, 1380 yards, and 8 TD's. Guess my 120 for 1500 isn't too far off eh? I did concede that 10 TD's would be reasonable than 14. They also have Marshall at 83 for 1177 and 9 TD's. Looks like again that my 95/1100/9 isn't too far off of what someone else (who gets paid for this), thinks.

 

In my league, that's about a 50 point difference... 3 fpg. So, I'll stand by my original statement, if you want upside, take Allen. If you want safe, take Marshall.

[weepaws 2,457]

Allen had his best season last season , and he avg 20 points per game .

 

Marshall ended up avg 21 points per game .

 

I don't see Allen being the upside.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Allen had his best season last season , and he avg 20 points per game .

 

Marshall ended up avg 21 points per game .

 

I don't see Allen being the upside.

Correction, he "WAS having his best season." until he got hurt. He played 8 games.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

How is Allen's upside bigger than Marshall's? Allen has never even come close to any of Marshall's 4 best seasons? That's just silly

[tanatastic 2,061]

How is Allen's upside bigger than Marshall's? Allen has never even come close to any of Marshall's 4 best seasons? That's just silly

Weeps uses the highly misleading ppg stat in almost all of his evaluations and debates. "Well so and so was only 2 ppg different than Gronk so theres really no difference."

 

In all fairness, if you take Allens 8 games and double them, it would have been around 120 1400 8. But doing that is silly and how often do we see guys have completely different halves? Last year Cooks ist half was garbage, then the 2nd was great.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Weeps uses the highly misleading ppg stat in almost all of his evaluations and debates. "Well so and so was only 2 ppg different than Gronk so theres really no difference."

 

In all fairness, if you take Allens 8 games and double them, it would have been around 120 1400 8. But doing that is silly and how often do we see guys have completely different halves? Last year Cooks ist half was garbage, then the 2nd was great.

I actually didn't even see his post. I was referring to Tbay. Now that I looked at weepaws post I had to laugh. He made his PPG argument and stated that Marshall wasn't the one with the upside.... Even though Marshall scored more ppg than Allen! In theory, if a guy is having a personal historic season and still isn't at the average of the player being compared, he doesn't have more upside. Typical weepaws logic

[tanatastic 2,061]

I actually didn't even see his post. I was referring to Tbay. Now that I looked at weepaws post I had to laugh. He made his PPG argument and stated that Marshall wasn't the one with the upside.... Even though Marshall scored more ppg than Allen! In theory, if a guy is having a personal historic season and still isn't at the average of the player being compared, he doesn't have more upside. Typical weepaws logic

I mean, I know him well enough to know what he was going for. He sees 20ppg and 21ppg and calls them pretty much even so the guy with only 1 less has upside for more. I get it, but its just not a fair comparison since Allen only played 8 games. A guy could score 30 and get hurt and still have a 30ppg avg.

 

I really dont want to pile on or seem like I dont like Allen. Allen has plenty of upside and I doubt Fitzpatrick repeats his great season.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I mean, I know him well enough to know what he was going for. He sees 20ppg and 21ppg and calls them pretty much even so the guy with only 1 less has upside for more. I get it, but its just not a fair comparison since Allen only played 8 games. A guy could score 30 and get hurt and still have a 30ppg avg.

 

I really dont want to pile on or seem like I dont like Allen. Allen has plenty of upside and I doubt Fitzpatrick repeats his great season.

Look at how little Allen does with all of those catches. Damn near any decent receiver in the league would have great ppr numbers if they had the targets Allen had. His ypc were barely above 10 and his year end td total was on pace for 8 freaking TDs. He just doesn't have the high end talent one would like from a receiver going as early as Allen. So because BMarsh has incredible talent to go with all of the targets he receives, and had a lengthy history of catching 100 balls, even without stellar qb play, logic tells me his ceiling is higher.

[weepaws 2,457]

My point was based on the fact that Allen only played in eight games only I was just looking at his avg per game based on the fact I dont know how the other eight games would have played out for him.

 

And Allen is being looked upon as the player with the better upside .

 

My disagreement to that statement is that Marshall avg more points per game and because of that I don't see how someone can see Allen having the better upside due to the fact that Marshall had the better season based on avg .

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

My point was based on the fact that Allen only played in eight games only I was just looking at his avg per game based on the fact I dont know how the other eight games would have played out for him.

 

And Allen is being looked upon as the player with the better upside .

 

My disagreement to that statement is that Marshall avg more points per game and because of that I don't see how someone can see Allen having the better upside due to the fact that Marshall had the better season based on avg .

Ok I read what Tandy said and then skimmed what you said and thought you were saying Allen had the upside. Yes you agree than Allen does not have the upside.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Its a worthwhile debate because as Weep said, plenty of people are excited for Allen after last years start. I would be skeptical of Marshall but he has done so much with so little his whole career you really cant. Imagine if he played with Brady or Rodgers.

 

Also my bad, I made it sound like weep was saying something he wasnt. I was just ribbing the use of ppg as a tool to measure players. Just a bit of miscommunication is all.

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

Allen had his best season last season , and he avg 20 points per game .

 

Marshall ended up avg 21 points per game .

 

I don't see Allen being the upside.

 

Allen is on a team that's going to throw the ball and they have a good QB, he's also only 24 years old. There's also the fact that he had a great catch rate of 67 receptions from 89 targets. In 2014, his targets increased from 105 to 121 and was on pace for 180. Let's say that he gets 150 and take his career average of 68% catch rate... that's 102 receptions. Lets take his y/r average of 11.9 and you get about 1200 yards, You also get 8 TD's. This is taking averages for a 24 year old who's improving and not giving him credit for improving. That's why he has upside. His career averages dictate a 102/1200/8 season with 150 targets.

 

Marshall was on a team that had a 33 year old QB who had a career year, and is not likely to repeat it, and brought in Matt Forte who's a better and more durable option than Ivory. They're going to run the ball more and pass more out of the backfield than they did last year. They also have Devin Smith who they're going to try to work into the fold.

 

My belief is that the Jets don't plan on throwing the ball 600 times again this year. There are numerous fantasy outlets projecting as many as 50 to 75 less attempts for Fitzpatrick. So, if Fitzpatrick throws 50 less passes, another 20 extra for the backfield because Forte is a great pass catcher, and another 30 extra for Smith, as compared to last year... that's as many as 100 less possible targets for Marshall. Last year Marshall got 173 targets. Do I think he'll get only 73? No. I think my estimations are a bit on the high end, but it's more or less to show a possible scenario. I think the possibility of him only getting 125-150 is very legit. His history shows that targets in that range generally equate to about 90 receptions for about 1100 yards and 9 touchdowns (wow... I swear I saw that number somewhere). Also, he's 32 years old. Father time is watching.

 

150 target season for both Marshall and Allen, Allen's results predict to be higher. When you take into account that Allen is a 24 year old and expecting to be an improving player and Marshall is 32 years old with an older QB who just had a career year, to think Allen has more upside seems like logic to me. ALSO, there are some fantasy outlets (FFToday and Fantasy Guru - for example), are projecting Allen to have a better season.

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

Its a worthwhile debate because as Weep said, plenty of people are excited for Allen after last years start. I would be skeptical of Marshall but he has done so much with so little his whole career you really cant. Imagine if he played with Brady or Rodgers.

 

Also my bad, I made it sound like weep was saying something he wasnt. I was just ribbing the use of ppg as a tool to measure players. Just a bit of miscommunication is all.

 

 

If Marshall were playing with Rodgers or Brady, his upside would be much different than it is with Fitzpatrick.