Will Mike Evans live up to a first round pick?

[double tour 57]

Any thoughts on Evans? I have him in a keeper league and am thinking of seeking a trade for Jordan Howard.

[giraldi02 470]

Evans > Howard in any format.

[weepaws 2,452]

I would keep Evans.

[bjsteel 34]

If you are good at WR, I'd trade Evans for Howard without thinking twice.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

Evans seems like an easy top 5 WR. He's really good and young yet. If you are strong at WR and weak at RB I'd consider the trade though.

[double tour 57]

Evans seems like an easy top 5 WR. He's really good and young yet. If you are strong at WR and weak at RB I'd consider the trade though.

Yeah, makes sense. I do think Evans has a high floor year coming up which is what I look for in players in general vs. possible big hitters. I'm doing well on both WR and RB. I just seem to value RBs more in PPR leagues. Both of the players are at a very low % of cap so that is a wash, but even if I did offer I think the other owner may not bite on the deal as he has Howard for 1 more year than I have left on Evans contract.

 

Thanks for the input....

[polecatt 399]

I would keep Evans

He's a proven commodity. He should be a top 5 WR this season and perhaps many more to come.

He's in a great spot in Tampa with Winston at QB.J

Jordan Howard had a good rookie season but he's on a shaky team.

Who knows how long he lasts?

[bjsteel 34]

I'm not sold on Evans, he drops too many balls and will need Winston to grow up...Howard has no one for competition and mentioned he wants to lead the league in rushing this year...of course you have the clown show that is the Bears coach/offense coordinator! LOL

[weepaws 2,452]

I think the post above answer the question of why Evans is the one to keep.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I'm not sold on Evans, he drops too many balls and will need Winston to grow up...Howard has no one for competition and mentioned he wants to lead the league in rushing this year...of course you have the clown show that is the Bears coach/offense coordinator! LOL

7 drops out of 173 targets = 4%. That's not a bad drop rate

[Mark91G 13]

unless you have another top 5 WR you keep Evans, he is a stud WR and the number 1 target and go to guy.

Tampa's RB situation is a bit mixed just now and for the first time a while tampa have another deep threat so D's will have to give evans a bit more freedom I can see him having a huge year.

 

I value RBS more also but depending where you are in the draft first 5/6 you could end up with a top WR and a top RB

[Matt Mueller 146]

Winston lead the league in passing yards attempted last year.

 

Mike Evans lead Pro Football Focus in WR metrics last year.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-how-mike-evans-elevated-his-game-in-2016

[Kent 228]

Evans benefits from a QB that locks on him every week.

[giraldi02 470]

Evans benefits from a QB that locks on him every week.

Not to mention now benefits from DeSean pulling safety help. Those toss ups to Evans just got a lil bit easier

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

Evans benefits from a QB that locks on him every week.

 

I'm not sure what this means? Are you saying that Evans isn't all that good, but because Winston throws to him all the time, he's getting volume? Volume that could change if Winston gets better? Or are you saying that he's really good and because of that, Winston throws to him all the time?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

I'm not sure what this means? Are you saying that Evans isn't all that good, but because Winston throws to him all the time, he's getting volume? Volume that could change if Winston gets better? Or are you saying that he's really good and because of that, Winston throws to him all the time?

I think he was just saying his targets are really really high

[ralphster 274]

Evans is a legt top 10 WR1 on an improving team. I question how much Koetter is going to pass though, as slowing things down via the run (and thereby limiting Winstons ints) seemed to be his mission towards the end of last year.

 

Were I seeking an rb in return for Evans I'd want zeke or gordon or dj though. If its Howard then I'd want a lesser wr or a pick back.

[weepaws 2,452]

Think his att numbers will be based on the play of the Bucs Defence.

 

Last season Winston had 307 passing att and the Bucs def gave up 232 points in the first half off the season.

 

Now the second half Winston had 261 passing att and the Bucs def gave up only 137 points.

 

So if the Bucs Defence comes out playing like they finshed last season he will indeed pass less often.

 

But if they don't and they need to play catch up those passing att will once again go up.

 

With Martin out for the first five games I think he's passing att will be on the higher end side, at least until Martin returns.

[Kent 228]

I think he was just saying his targets are really really high

Yeah. Evans owners must love it. Every Bucs game I watch it feels like there are one or two series where he only looks at Evans and throws to him regardless of coverage. Gotta love WRs that get thrown to by their QB no matter what.

[murf74 461]

Evans will regress. He has to with the new weapons added

[weepaws 2,452]

Regress in targets or in production.

 

I was looking at his numbers, and in 2014 he had 123 targets and avg 16.3 ff points per game in ppr.

 

2015 he had more targets 145 and avg less per game 15.2.

 

And last year he had 171 targets and avg 18.8 per game.

 

So I see him avg around 16.5 per game and that would put him in the top 6 for WRs.

 

I have him at number 6 right now.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Not taking him rnd1, rather have Jordy and bank on Rodgers.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

Evans is a legt top 10 WR1 on an improving team. I question how much Koetter is going to pass though, as slowing things down via the run (and thereby limiting Winstons ints) seemed to be his mission towards the end of last year.

 

Were I seeking an rb in return for Evans I'd want zeke or gordon or dj though. If its Howard then I'd want a lesser wr or a pick back.

 

Not really. In each of the last 3 games, Winston threw the ball 35 times. He had a 2 games where he threw less than 30 and 2 over 50, outside of that, he was in the 30's the other 12 games. I expect the same thing. A couple where the attempts are low... a couple where the attempts are high, but the significant majority in the mid 30's.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ I do think there was some chatter about asking Winston to play within himself. He's a gun slinger type like Farve and sometimes getting him to play a little more within the system and less backyard scramble and toss deep to Evans was good for the team.

 

Jameis has risk but his ceiling is about as high as any QB in the league.

[bjsteel 34]

Not taking him rnd1, rather have Jordy and bank on Rodgers.

Jordy burned me last year, I tend to stay away for these guys the following year...and then they usually go off! lol

 

Jordy's not getting any younger and they have quite a few weapons on that Packer's O, I would rank Evans ahead of Jordy.

[bjsteel 34]

While I mentioned I would rank Evans over Jordy, what about AJ Green? I would probably put AJ over Evans, and picking 7th, that's probably who I'd take if the usual six go before me (10-team ppr).

[Smileseers 54]

I own Green and Evans both with Le'veon Bell in a 3 keeper league where keep means keep. I would not consider trading either Wr for Howard. Teams will have a full season of film to figure out how to stop the Bears best mode of offense.

 

Evans will be 24 in August and he has an established chemistry with an up and coming QB in Winston. Green will be 29 in August and likely has as many years left in him as Howard. In a ppr league I prefer the Wrs. Personally, Evans is the last guy I would trade from my team.

[weepaws 2,452]

I don't think the Packers have any player that's going to hurt Nelson production.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Jordy burned me last year, I tend to stay away for these guys the following year...and then they usually go off! lol

 

Jordy's not getting any younger and they have quite a few weapons on that Packer's O, I would rank Evans ahead of Jordy.

News to me that the Packers have a bunch of "weapons". Adams and Jordy are as much as I know

[Kent 228]

I don't think the Packers have any player that's going to hurt Nelson production.

Adams hurts his TD production. So will Bennett. Evans is clearly ahead of Jordy.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Adams hurts his TD production. So will Bennett. Evans is clearly ahead of Jordy.

The huge difference here though is Rodgers is Nelsons qb. Winston isn't a very good real life qb. It's great for fantasy that he has no conscience and doesn't care if he throws terrible passes. He will just toss it up again. Still, he isn't anywhere near Rodgers. So as long as McCarthy doesn't try to limit Rodgers again, which I don't even understand why we have to worry about limiting the best qb in the league, the talent at qb is too far apart to call Evans the clear favorite to finish better

[weepaws 2,452]

I don't think Adams hurt Nelsons TD total.

 

Nelson scored the most tds of any wr last season.

 

I don't see any player on the Packers being any threat to take away from Nelsons production.

 

And if Rodgers was to throw for less then the 40 TD passes he had last season, it won't be Nelson that as less, it would be Adams.

 

Bennet will take tds away, but it won't be from Nelson, I think he will take away from the 12 Adams had.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

The huge difference here though is Rodgers is Nelsons qb. Winston isn't a very good real life qb. It's great for fantasy that he has no conscience and doesn't care if he throws terrible passes. He will just toss it up again. Still, he isn't anywhere near Rodgers. So as long as McCarthy doesn't try to limit Rodgers again, which I don't even understand why we have to worry about limiting the best qb in the league, the talent at qb is too far apart to call Evans the clear favorite to finish better

 

I don't think that's true at all. He has some flaws and some issues he needs to work on, so he's not perfect or a finished product, but he's playing pretty well. This year is a pivotal year for him. If he cleans up some of these issues, he could be really good... if he doesn't, he'll only be decent. Even at that, to say he "isn't very good" is a big overly negative. At the level he played at last year, he was a top 15 QB.

[IGotWorms 3,300]

I'm not sold on Evans, he drops too many balls and will need Winston to grow up...

This is exactly why I'm high on Evans. He has been very productive despite these issues. Imagine if get resolved!

[weepaws 2,452]

I don't know the total number of passes Evans dropped last season, but they lead to him being the third highest ff wr last season.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

This is exactly why I'm high on Evans. He has been very productive despite these issues. Imagine if get resolved!

 

Looks like he's already on that path. In 2015, he dropped 11 balls on 143 targets. Last year, he dropped 7 in 173 targets. I hope everyone in my leagues think like bjsteel. I might be able to get a top 5 WR in the 3rd round and a top 5 QB in 15th!!

 

LOL... Winston needing to grow up. With a mediocre OLine, injured RB's and only Evans and Brate to throw to, he finished 11th in QB's. Adding Howard and Jackson to the mix plus an improved OLine, he should be well in the top 10 and possibly top 5. Yeah, he needs to up.

[IGotWorms 3,300]

 

Looks like he's already on that path. In 2015, he dropped 11 balls on 143 targets. Last year, he dropped 7 in 173 targets. I hope everyone in my leagues think like bjsteel. I might be able to get a top 5 WR in the 3rd round and a top 5 QB in 15th!!

 

LOL... Winston needing to grow up. With a mediocre OLine, injured RB's and only Evans and Brate to throw to, he finished 11th in QB's. Adding Howard and Jackson to the mix plus an improved OLine, he should be well in the top 10 and possibly top 5. Yeah, he needs to up.

Well Winston is a focking dbag, but so is Cam Newton. Got nothing to do with fantasy production

[bjsteel 34]

Well Winston is a focking dbag, but so is Cam Newton. Got nothing to do with fantasy production

Thanks Worms, pretty much what I meant by "growing up"! I must admit though, I think I confused Mike Evans with Michael Floyd from his Arizona days, thanks to those for calling me out.

 

I'm looking at Evans at #7 in a 10-teamer, I wonder if I should draft Winston late and hope the duo has a big year.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

Well Winston is a focking dbag, but so is Cam Newton. Got nothing to do with fantasy production

 

Well, if you say so...

[seafoam1 1,878]

I wonder what his targets per game will be this yesr. Especially the first 3 games. The whole RB situation is interesting.